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☆ A US recession is coming - here are 5 reasons why
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Bank of America's strategists said the US could fall into a recession over the next 10 to 12 weeks. Bank stocks have tumbled in recent days. Frankly, a broad recession won't be a surprise to anyone at this point (especially Opening Bell readers). In other news:Whether or not the US is in a recession is a politically charged debate. These nine funds offer strong positioning through a recession and into the next bull market, in Bank of America's view.

☆ Here are 5 reasons why the US could be in a recession by March, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US economy could enter a recession in 10-12 weeks, according to Bank of America. These are the five reasons why Bank of America believes a recession could hit by March 2023. This potential recession has been called the most telegraphed recession in history because everyone seems to be expecting a decline. Bank stocks are down 10% in just four days. Bank stocks are often described as a "canary in the coal mine", and feel the pain of a downturn earlier than stocks in other sectors.

☆ Stocks are likely to get smacked down in the first half of 2023 before markets improve
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The outlook for next year is a bit better for stocks, but the first half sounds like it could be downright ugly. The strategist expects lows to be retested due to what could be a significant decline in earnings as interest rates rise. Jeff Kleintop, Charles Schwab's chief global investment strategist, expects a shallow recession may already have begun. He predicts the first half will be worse for stocks than the back half of the year, with a choppiness similar to the past six months. Calvasina expects small caps to be an area of outperformance, and she still sees value in energy and financials.

☆ It's time for investors to sell any rally in stocks with job losses set to shock markets in 2023, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Sell stock rallies ahead of the likely recession shock for Main Street consumer sentiment in 2023, Bank of America said Friday. Job losses next year will shock consumers, as inflation did in 2022, analysts predicted. For now, the labor market still looks strong, with the addition of 263,000 jobs in November. Strength in the labor market was on display Friday with the November nonfarm payrolls report. Bank of America said it already sees signs of the labor market softening, with "small business jobs hard to fill (correlates with Fed funds) & peak in Atlanta Fed wage tracker," it said.

☆ The inflation story is driving the 2023 stock market forecast for now
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

What's going to happen in the stock market in 2023? That is playing against the "inflation data is improving" narrative that has been powering the stock market recently. Judging by some of the comments from strategists, 2023 sounds pretty gloomy. The S & P 500 is above its 200-day moving average for the first time since April. Seven of the 11 sectors of the S & P 500 are above their 200-day moving average.

☆ 100 years of stock-market history show the sell-off is likely only half done, says a 30-year market vet who called the downturn. Here are 3 criteria to watch to know when the worst is over.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-19 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Jon Wolfenbarger thinks stock-market investors are still too optimistic that a bear market bottom is coming sometime in the immediate-to-near future. When bear markets occur when valuations are relatively high, the bear markets tend to drag on longer. The median bear market length during periods of high valuation among those listed above is 17 months, Wolfenbarger said, compared to 13 months when valuations are attractive. Given that the current market sell-off began amid some of the highest valuations in history, Wolfenbarger said he expects the bear market to last 17 months or longer. Wolfenbarger's views in contextIn June, Societe Generale conducted a similar analysis to Wolfenbarger's and looked at bear markets over the last 150 years.

☆ Here's when to buy stocks as Wall Street warnings suggest a recession is imminent, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Signs are growing that an economic recession is imminent, according to Bank of America. BofA recommends investors focus on bond investing in the first half of 2023 and shift to stocks in the second half of next year. Instead, investors should focus on buying bonds between now and the first half of 2023, and shift to stocks in the second half of 2023, according to the note. "Rates shock so damaging to Wall Street asset values in 2022, but there's been no rates shock on Main Street," BofA's Michael Hartnett said. "There's your credible big bull trade; we say bonds first half of 2023, stocks second half of 2023," Hartnett said.

LONDON, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Inflows into global equity funds hit their highest level in 35 weeks in the week to Wednesday, according to a report from Bank of America (BofA), as investor optimism brightened. Investors poured a net $22.9 billion into equities, BofA said, citing EPFR data, and $4.2 billion into bonds. They pulled $3.7 billion from cash funds and $300 million from gold. U.S. equity funds saw inflows just shy of $24 billion in the week to Wednesday, BofA said. Money flowed into emerging market (EM) equities for the fourth week running, at $1.9 billion.

☆ Stagflation is now the consensus view on Wall Street for 2023 as investor sentiment remains historically bearish, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-17 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The consensus view on Wall Street is that stagflation will plague the stock market in 2023, according to Bank of America. A survey from the bank found that 92% of fund managers expect a period of high inflation and low economic growth next year. The bearish outlook comes as cash levels sit near record highs, signaling the lingering bearish sentiment. That dynamic sets contrarian investors up for a solid trade, as investor sentiment remains historically bearish. Other sentiment indicators are also showing overwhelmingly bearish sentiment among investors, like the weekly AAII Investor Sentiment survey.

☆ Investors gobble up bonds as worst of inflation may be over -BofA
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Lucy Raitano | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Investors bought $2.6 billion of bonds in the week to Wednesday, BofA said, citing EPFR data. "Inflation shock" is over, but 'inflation stick' of briskly rising services and wage inflation is here to stay; inflation will come down but to remain above range past 20 years," BofA strategists, led by Michael Hartnett, said. Inflation shock, rates shock and recession shock defined the the 2022 bear narrative, Bofa said, adding that 2023 looks very different. "2023 bull narrative is 'peak CPI, peak Fed, peak yields, peak US dollar'; we say 'rent the pivot' as 'no recession, no rate cuts'," the bank's strategists said. BofA said U.S. 30-year Treasuries, small-cap industrials and resources, emerging market bonds, plus China/Japan and weak dollar plays were on its list.

☆ Investors gobble up bonds as worst of inflation may be over - BofA
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Lucy Raitano | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - Investors bought more bonds than at any time in the last four months in the week to Wednesday as signs emerged that inflation may have peaked, BofA Global Research said on Friday. Investors bought $2.6 billion of bonds in the week to Wednesday, BofA said, citing EPFR data. "Inflation shock" is over, but "inflation stick" of briskly rising services and wage inflation is here to stay; inflation will come down but to remain above range past 20 years," BofA strategists, led by Michael Hartnett, said. In the latest week, investors pulled $4.6 billion from equity funds and ploughed $2.4 billion into cash. Inflation shock, rates shock and recession shock defined the the 2022 bear narrative, Bofa said, adding that 2023 looks very different.

☆ It's the bond market's time to shine
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Bond yields are at their highest levels in years. The result has been nothing but pain for stock and bond prices since the start of the year. Another reason is because in a recessionary environment, bond prices typically rise as investors pile into safe-haven assets like Treasurys. "Bond investors are facing a unique win-win scenario right now," Saperstein said in an October memo. He continued: "If inflation and rates continue to rise, bond prices will decline but unrealized price losses can be meaningfully offset by locked-in 4-6% income returns.

☆ Investors pile into cash at fastest rate since COVID crisis-BofA
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Equity funds posted $6.3 billion in inflows, with emerging markets funds recording their second straight weekly inflow, with $4.3 billion, and European equity funds posting their 38th weekly outflow, down $900 million, BofA added. Stocks got a boost last week from a belief among investors that the Federal Reserve could shift the pace of rate hikes down a gear, as the economy shows signs of slowing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has since poured cold water over such speculation, given stubbornly high inflation and a resilient labour market. Much harder to pivot when inflation is 8% & unemployment is 3%," BofA investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote. The S&P 500 (.SPX) gained almost 4% last week, buoyed by optimism over quarterly earnings and the prospect of slower rate hikes from the Fed.

☆ Bank of America says 250 years of history point to turnaround for Treasury bonds
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-28 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Bank of America expects Treasurys to show positive returns in 2023. Normally a safe haven in time of market tumult, government bonds have gotten crushed in 2022. While the stock market has performed poorly as well , the S & P 500 is down just 18% — considerably better than the bond market returns. But Hartnett said the last time Treasurys fell more than 5% and were negative the following year happened in 1861. Putting it in perspective, that means "250 years of history say US Treasury returns up in 2023," Hartnett wrote.

☆ A pivot on the Fed's balance sheet reduction plans could be a bullish driver of stocks next year. Here's what to know.
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

No, not quantitative tightening, but rather quantitative tinkering. Don't forget about the Fed's massive balance sheet. changing the pace or even pausing balance sheet reduction) would also be a bullish development. When does the Fed pivot from its rate hike and balance sheet reduction plans? Here's where stock market investors want to be as signs of a powerful rally start to form.

☆ A Fed shift from quantitative tightening to 'tinkering' will emerge as a new bull factor for the stock market in 2023, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Fed shift away from quantitative tightening could be the next bull factor for stocks in 2023, according to Bank of America. The Fed has started to reduce its near $9 trillion balance sheet at a clip of about $95 billion per month. That's because central banks are "petrified of market consequences of liquidity withdrawal," BofA's investment strategist Michael Hartnett said. Fear of deeper declines materializing in equity and fixed income markets is what could ultimately spark a Fed shift away from quantitative tightening and towards quantitative "tinkering," Hartnett said. Additionally, the European central bank is "considering but not yet committing to even passive quantitative tightening," Hartnett said.

☆ The 60/40 portfolio has been suffering all year, but there are opportunities for long-term investors
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The 60/40 strategy, known as a balanced portfolio, has been hit by rising bond yields — which means falling fixed income prices, as well as a sinking stock market. "The future is brighter for the 60/40," said Omar Aguilar, CEO and chief investment officer of Schwab Asset Management. "The correlation will come back to the normal levels, or the historical levels that you normally have between equities and fixed income," Aguilar said. Schwab's Aguilar advises against chasing yields in fixed income, but instead maintaining a balanced approach between credit and duration. In fixed income, the firm currently has a bond duration of four years, down from its previous seven-year duration.

☆ Investors' cash pile is the largest in 21 years. Here's what that means and why it could signal a rally is on the way in 2023.
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There's a massive amount of cash on the sidelines right now as markets suffer through extreme bouts of volatility and investors remain skittish. Investors' cash pile is the largest since April 2001. Which bring us to the next part of BofA's prediction — that this cash pile will fuel a rally in 2023. I-Bonds have gained immense popularity this year given deeply negative stock market returns and high inflation. Just three weeks away, the elections will still likely have implications for areas of the stock market.

☆ Investors are nearing capitulation and setting up for 'another bear rally,' BofA survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

For the third prong of BofA's capitulation test, the policy outlook also is getting closer, with respondents seeing interest rate cuts and lower bond yields ahead. However, investors are much closer to peak-fear capitulation when it comes to the economy and market outlook. A net 72% of survey respondents see global growth declining over the next year, just off the all-time low. However, he also noted that the rising pessimism has still been met with positive flows to equity funds, "suggesting no sign yet of capitulation from retail/institutional investors." The survey indicated the most crowded trade to be long the U.S. dollar, followed by short U.S. stocks and long ESG assets.

☆ Wall Street is debating whether the bear market still has legs
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Jason Ma | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

So far, results from the big Wall Street banks have been mixed, with JPMorgan and Citigroup beating but Morgan Stanley falling short of forecasts. He told CNBC on Friday that Thursday's wild reversal wasn't just a bear market rally and could be the start of a new upswing. "We are, in my opinion, coming to the end of this bear market," Scaramucci told CNBC on Friday. Is the stock market poised for a sustainable uptrend or still teasing with bear market rallies? But the stock market isn't out of the woods yet as there could be more pain in the short-term.

☆ A 26-year market vet breaks down why investing legend Jeremy Grantham is correct to compare the current market to the 2000 and 2008 'superbubbles' — and warns stocks will fall another 20%
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-15 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There's little reason for optimism in today's market, Lance Roberts laments. Just look at the barrage of headwinds facing stocks right now, the RIA Advisors CIO said in an October 10 commentary. At the start of this year, investing legend and founder of GMO Jeremy Grantham, said stocks were in their fourth superbubble in the last century given that market valuations had veered from historical norms so drastically. On Friday, Roberts told Insider that he agrees with Grantham's assessments, and that he sees the S&P 500 dropping to around 2,900. One of Wall Street's most bullish strategists this year, BMO's Brian Belski, cut his 2022 price target on the S&P 500 again on Friday to 4,200.

☆ Stocks have further to fall after the market's 'bear hug' rally as the Fed isn't ready to pivot from its aggressive rate policy, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The Thursday rally in US stocks was a "bear hug" and not yet the start of a sustainable upswing in equities, Bank of America said Friday. The firm said the rally was ignited in a market that's oversold and where investors are holding high levels of cash. The "Big Low" in the market is coming but there hasn't been enough macro/market pain yet, said BofA's chief US strategist Michael Hartnett. Bank of AmericaLooking forward, Hartnett still sees a "Big Low" coming in markets — but he's still waiting for signs of panic from the Fed. He points specifically to the labor market and manufacturing data, which isn't yet weak enough for the Fed to "fold.

☆ U.S. stock market is taking hits, but we’re still doing better than the rest of the world
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-07 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The U.S. stock market may be down 21% this year, but it's far better than most of the rest of the world. The U.S. stock market, which has been outperforming most other markets for a long time, is continuing to increase its market share of global equities. That 66%, Hartnett says, is an all-time high. Hartnett notes that Tesla's market cap, at roughly $750 billion, is now the same as the entire European banking sector. U.S. stock market: king of the hill (by market capitalization) U.S.: 60.3% Japan 5.4% China 4.1% UK 3.9% Canada 3.2% France 2.7% Switzerland 2.5% Australia 1.9% Germany 1.9% Taiwan 1.6% Other 12.2%

☆ Bonds are in the midst of the worst crash since 1949, and its set to unravel some of the market's most crowded trades, Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-24 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The worst bond market decline since 1949 is set to disrupt the stock market, according to Bank of America. The bank said soaring interest rates will unwind the most crowded trades in the stock market, including long US tech. "Bond crash in recent weeks means highs in credit spreads, lows in stocks are not yet in," BofA said. Bonds are experiencing their worst decline since 1949 as interest rates soar amid a global central bank campaign to fight inflation. "Bond crash in recent weeks means highs in credit spreads, lows in stocks are not yet in," BofA's Michael Hartnett said.

☆ Bond market plunge means the low for stocks is not in yet, Bank of America's Hartnett says
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Pressure in the bond market is also exacting a toll on stocks, which look likely to go still lower from here, according to Bank of America's top strategist. Bank of America's main sentiment indicator is "deeply bearish," Hartnett wrote, though that still hasn't translated into a contrarian buying point. That would translate into respective S & P 500 losses from Thursday's close of 4.2%, 12.2% and 20.2%. While central banks are tightening, fiscal authorities in the U.S., UK and elsewhere are continuing to provide stimulus , offsetting the inflation-fighting benefits of higher rates. "Investors want policy coordination & policy credibility, and until they get it are likely to press shorts," Hartnett said.

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