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☆ Robinhood traders are getting smarter with their money. The platform's head of investment strategy explained why.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Steph Guild, Robinhood's head of investment strategy. RobinhoodSteph Guild is the head of investment strategy at Robinhood. Phil Rosen: How have retail investors on Robinhood changed their investing habits now compared to 2022? As the economy faces more risks like a recession and a potential credit crunch, do you think retail investors will change their strategy? What do you think of Guild's insights on retail investors?

☆ How Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway can navigate the looming economic turmoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

First, let's check in with Warren Buffett. Warren Buffett REUTERS/Rick Wilking1. Few people would argue with you if you said Warren Buffett is the greatest investor of all time. Fewer still would challenge anyone who claimed Berkshire Hathaway was one of the most resilient companies of all time. Is there any other company or conglomerate better poised to navigate uncertainty than Berkshire Hathaway?

☆ The dollar's dominance on the world stage isn't going away. Here's why.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The move makes sense, given Russia's growing status as a pariah state, but it also highlights a push to unseat the dollar as a dominant force in global trade. But to strategists at the Carson Group, a scenario where the dollar isn't the world's primary reserve currency simply isn't in the cards in the near future. Are you convinced that the dollar won't lose its status as a dominant global reserve currency? Some companies in this batch of oil stocks have upsides of up to 180%, according to strategists at Bank of America. An expert from the World Gold Council pointed out that history says gold performs well in a recession.

☆ The commercial real estate market is showing some cracks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But before we get too intergalactic, this morning we're stopping off in the commercial real estate space. In the wake of March's bank tumult, commercial real estate has frequently been noted as the next domino to fall — and one corner of the market is already showing signs of stress. A few things to remember:Higher interest rates have made it more expensive for both American households and large commercial real estate owners to buy or refinance property. Small and medium-sized banks hold 80% of US commercial real estate debt outstanding. What are the biggest risks, in your view, facing the commercial real estate market for the second quarter of 2023?

☆ Shark Tank investor Kevin O'Leary breaks down his latest crypto bet as regulators look to crush 'rogue' operators
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

I caught up with Shark Tank investor Kevin O'Leary, an active crypto investor and market veteran, to get his take on the digital asset sector and recent regulatory action. Since November, he's moved his holdings to Canada, where he uses WonderFi, a name he's backed as an investor. They told regulators 'go get them,' and all of a sudden we have a mountain of enforcement action." The SEC said it's "neutral" about the technology at hand, yet "anything but neutral when it comes to investor protection." I bet if you looked at who's managing these companies 36 months from now, all the current guys are gone."

☆ Small businesses are filing for bankruptcy at a higher rate than at the peak of the pandemic - and a looming credit crunch could make things worse
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Before March, the number of small- and mid-sized businesses filing for bankruptcy was already on the rise, meaning the bank turmoil only exacerbates an existing trend. What risks are you watching as far as a credit crunch in the US for the coming months? First Citizens, the company that bought Silicon Valley Bank's assets, is run by a family that's no stranger to buying failed banks. The bank is run by a billionaire North Carolina family that's bought over 20 small failed banks since 2008. With the recent takeover, it's poised to stand among the largest 20 banks in the US.

☆ This isn’t a 2008-style financial crisis but stocks could still crash 25%, SoFi’s top strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Today I'm eager to share this week's conversation with a top investment strategist who's anticipating trouble ahead for the economy. In the financial crisis, it was down 58% from peak to trough. I do not think that this is a repeat of the financial crisis. Investors should brace for an earnings recession and continued financial uncertainty, chief investment officer Mike Wilson explained. A crisis in the financial sector has rattled investors but markets look poised to avoid a crash.

☆ The Nasdaq 100 just entered a fresh bull market - and a top analyst says tech names look like the new safety trade
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Those rate forecasts have bolstered tech names, and mega-caps like Apple and Microsoft have pulled the Nasdaq higher. "While it sounds like Twilight Zone comment to many investors, tech stocks have become the new safety trade with Big Tech names a major beneficiary of this dynamic," Ives, a managing director and senior equity research analyst at Wedbush, wrote in a note. "And these tech stocks have been under owned and still remain in that camp in our opinion." Short sellers generated paper profit of $14 billion betting against bank stocks over the last month. Shorting bank names in March produced a "wide swath of profitable trades that returned +17.2% in less than a month," S3 Partners said.

☆ A key recession indicator suggests the Fed may slash rates soon
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-30 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

There's another bond market signal flashing and it could mean the Fed's about to step in. The Fed raised short-term interest rates by a quarter percentage point as expected today, with market watchers expecting one more increase this year and three more in 2019. But there are other bond market signs, too, and the recent rally in bonds at the shorter-term end of the Treasury curve may just be the indicator with the most troubling track record. In effect, the bond market is telling us that the Fed could be on the brink of making a policy pivot as the economy falters. Investors are shifting focus back to the Fed's thinking on interest rates, with a PCE inflation update due Friday.

☆ The bank crisis threatens to spark a credit crunch as Main Street banks pull back
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

A possible consequence of the banking crisis is that households and businesses may soon find it harder to get a loan from their bank. Around $1 trillion in deposits have been pulled from smaller and mid-sized banks since the Fed began hiking rates last year, with half that fleeing banks since SVB collapsed. "The uncertainty generated by deposit movements could cause banks to become more cautious on lending," JPMorgan strategists wrote in a note. "This risk is heightened by the fact that mid- and small-size banks play a disproportionately large role in US bank lending." This likely could impact the trajectory of the economy, as regional and community banks are a massive source of credit to Main Street borrowers.

☆ The CFTC's suit against Binance marks a deepening crackdown on the crypto industry
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

All this comes just days after the SEC charged a spate of high-profile individuals for fraud and crypto market manipulation. That comes months after the total crypto market value saw about $2 trillion erased in a brutal plunge in token prices. The SEC also warned that the platforms investors use to get involved in crypto aren't quite airtight, in the regulator's view. In other news:FILE PHOTO: A participant stands near a logo of World Bank at the International Monetary Fund - World Bank Annual Meeting 2018 in Nusa Dua Reuters2. The World Bank just warned that this could be the start of a "lost decade" for global economic growth.

☆ A credit crunch could worsen the bank turmoil and commercial real estate could be next domino to fall
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Odds are, commercial real estate is the next shoe to drop for the banking sector after this month's unrest. "Commercial real estate [is] widely seen as next shoe to drop as lending standards for CRE loans to tighten further," BofA's Michael Hartnett said. Regional banks have enormous exposure to commercial real estate loans. But this time around, it is commercial rather than residential real estate that may be in trouble. Are you worried about the impact of commercial real estate on the banking sector and the economy?

☆ Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, and what to know about the financial turmoil — and how one company is working to boost the number of women on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-25 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The program collaborates with UPenn's Wharton business school, and it teaches college women the fundamentals of markets, portfolio management, and finance. Katherine Jollon Colsher, President and CEO, Girls Who Invest Girls Who InvestKatherine Jollon Colsher is the chief executive officer and president of Girls Who Invest, a nonprofit that aims to help women enter asset management and other careers across Wall Street. Katherine Jollon Colsher: We work exclusively in the buy side, and we do focus exclusively on placing women in internships and frontline investing roles to advance more women portfolio managers. With that, our vision is for 30% of the world's investable capital to be managed by women by 2030. Shares of the German bank tumbled on Friday, as the cost of credit default swaps linked to its bonds shot higher.

☆ A key indicator says a recession is guaranteed in 2023 — and Bill Ackman, Nouriel Roubini, and others are warning of trouble ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

From the central bank's latest rate hike to new developments in the ongoing bank crisis, a lot has happened in my absence. And all the while, Jerome Powell's favorite bond-market indicator is quietly telling us that a recession is all but guaranteed this year. Talk of basis points, yield spreads, and other market jargon is obscuring the key message here: Markets think a recession is guaranteed in 2023. How much credence as a recession signal do you give the bond market indicator? He said the current bank crisis isn't a redux of that era, or even of 2008.

☆ The Fed hiked rates further but Wall Street is already pointing to tighter conditions on the ground
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Jason Ma | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Between fighting inflation or the bank crisis, the Federal Reserve leaned toward the former. Wednesday's move comes despite the bank crisis, which previously led investors to price in a series of Fed rate cuts starting this summer. Indeed, Wall Street has started pointing to the facts on the ground when it comes to financial conditions. The banks are still tightening credit conditions and … non-bank lenders are as well," he told Bloomberg TV hours before the Fed meeting. Billionaire investor Mark Mobius says he is "very, very skeptical" of investing in bank stocks.

☆ The Fed is about to deliver a momentous policy decision. It'll be a choice between keeping the focus on inflation or stemming the banking chaos.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Powell and the Fed may acknowledge that monetary policy has caused some pain, and even add that more may be coming. What's your prediction for today's Fed decision and what Powell might say about the recent banking tumult? A market analyst says investors need to have some key questions answered by the Fed today. Market watchers should pay attention over whether the central bank sees the SVB collapse and resulting crisis as deflationary. The governor of Florida has proposed legislation to ban a central bank digital currency and has called on like-minded states to do the same.

☆ The stock market is going to be trading flat as long as risk-free assets offer much more yield
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Meanwhile, markets are still reeling from the SVB fiasco, but there's a simpler reason why the stock market is going to be trading flat for the foreseeable future. Banking turmoil aside, the stock market doesn't have much momentum as long as investors are getting much higher yields on risk-free assets. Even before Silicon Valley Bank crashed, investors were feeling the pain of a volatile stock market. What's your prediction for the stock market through the first half of this year? Zurich-listed shares of Credit Suisse are down more than 58% early Monday.

☆ Everything you need to know to catch up on Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, and the trouble rattling the financial world
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-18 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse have stolen most of the headlines, but between others like First Republic Bank, Signature Bank, and Silvergate Bank, there's plenty to digest. People walk by the New York headquarters of Credit Suisse on March 15, 2023 in New York City. The scandal-hit lender has been feeling the pain since Silicon Valley Bank sparked the bank crisis. Venture capitalists have never been more divided, with accusations flying over who killed their beloved Silicon Valley Bank. Bank of America strategists laid out 23 names that still offer upside despite the drag of SVB and Credit Suisse.

☆ Goldman Sachs just told us the banking crisis makes it more pessimistic about the economy - and other recession signals are blaring too
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The bank crisis that started with Silicon Valley Bank last Friday continues to unfold with what feels like to-the-minute developments. First Republic Bank branch on Park Avenue in New York City. In light of the bank runs, bank failures, and bank stock volatility, those odds are now at 35%, strategists said Thursday, citing "increased near-term uncertainty" surrounding the effects of small bank stress. Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank marked the second and third largest bank failures in history, respectively, behind only Washington Mutual in 2008. She explained why you should be prepared for more interest-rate volatility as fears of a financial crisis rise.

☆ Silicon Valley Bank's failure might just spark a faster housing rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Now let's see how the fast-moving banking turbulence impacts the highly sensitive US housing market. "It seems that home sales activity has bottomed out, and 2023 will be the turning point for the housing market," she said. While her long-term outlook on a housing rebound hasn't changed, mortgage rates look set to fall faster than previously expected, which could allow more Americans to enter the housing market. And looking ahead to the Fed's meeting next week, Evangelou expects policymakers to moderate their aggressive policy. In other news:The logo of Swiss bank Credit Suisse is seen at a branch office in Bern, Switzerland October 28, 2020.

☆ Silicon Valley Bank and inflation complicate the Fed’s next move
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Everyday now we've been talking about Silicon Valley Bank — SVB — and I've had to catch myself several times from saying SBF — Sam Bankman-Fried — the guy behind the other big financial collapse in recent months. A) No rate hike at allB) 25 basis pointsC) 50 basis pointsTweet me (@philrosenn) or email me (prosen@insider.com) to let me know. Bank stocks are rising again as nerves calm — though SVB-driven fears are still niggling. Bank of America picked out a batch of financial stocks that offer upside right now amid the chaos. The token soared 15% as the February CPI print fueled more speculation for a smaller rate hike.

☆ More banks could soon fail - but that could end up being good news for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Still, no matter what the Consumer Price Index clocks in at, it's possible that the failures of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank already convinced Jerome Powell to take his foot off the gas. Silicon Valley Bank employees react to the bank's collapse Getty Images1. With the government rescuing Signature and Silicon Valley Bank depositors, not all the downside has been contained, according to Wharton finance professor, Itamar Drechsler. Silicon Valley Bank's CEO, Greg Becker, previously asked Congress to ease regulatory oversight on the bank. But, as Jefferies analysts put it, "the world changed" with Silicon Valley Bank's failure.

☆ Two big Silicon Valley banks failed when the easy money ran out - and that could be just the start.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Hallam Bullock | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Before we jump into the newsletter, the Silicon Valley Bank saga is continuing to unfold, so let's quickly break down the latest. "No losses associated with the resolution of Silicon Valley Bank will be borne by the taxpayer," policymakers added. The fall of SVB and Signature bank means the Fed's aggressive interest-rate hiking regime has now taken sizable casualties. A $15 billion venture capital firm had warned its startups of Silicon Valley Bank's red flags months ago. Greenoaks Capital Partners told clients in an email back in November that SVB, as well as other firms, could see problems in a high-interest-rate environment, Bloomberg reported.

☆ Here's why you should expect a housing rebound, according to a top economist at the National Association of Realtors
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

On tap today we've got a great interview with a top real estate economist and this week's best markets stories, including updates on the Silicon Valley Bank meltdown. Nadia Evangelou: What we see in the data is that the housing market will likely pick up in the coming months, in the spring season. NE: It seems that homesales activity has bottomed out, and 2023 will be the turning point for the housing market. Due to low inventory, even though there are relatively few buyers on the market, housing demand continues to outpace housing supply. We expect 4.5 million homes to be sold in 2023, and about 5.3 million homes to be sold in 2024.

☆ The Fed wants higher unemployment because it would bring down inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Powell testified abou the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress and the state of the economy Chip Somodevilla/Getty1. A reading of 200,000 or more jobs added in February means we're getting a bigger rate hike this month. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this week that the trajectory of monetary policy doesn't hinge solely on today's jobs report, but markets are still bracing for impact. Remember, the Fed's stated goal is a 2% inflation rate. Meanwhile, Wharton's Jeremy Siegel said Thursday that the Fed is taking a flawed policy approach, and it shouldn't be so focused on jobs.

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