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☆ Interest rates remain steady once again — but it's likely the Fed will cut rates in September
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe nation's central bank didn't give interest rate relief to Americans — yet. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee announced it would be leaving interest rates unchanged, continuing the pause that began last fall. And with the labor market slowing down while avoiding a recession, the Fed might have the evidence it needs to cut interest rates at its next meeting in September. However, predictions point to a rate cut — CME FedWatch, which estimates probabilities of interest rate changes based on the markets, showed markets think it's far more likely than not that rates will ease. Related storiesThe high interest rates have meant it's more expensive for Americans to borrow money for things like mortgages, credit cards, and auto loans.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Powell, Michele Raneri, Donald Trump —, Trump, Elizabeth Warren, John Hickenlooper, Sheldon Whitehouse Organizations: Service, Federal, Market Committee, Business, Fed, TransUnion, Fox News, Democratic Locations: May's, Sens

☆ Interest rate cuts probably aren't here just yet, but they could finally reach Americans in under 2 months
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

It's safe to say that Americans can count on an interest rate cut pretty soon, but probably not this week. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its next interest rate decision, and it's once again expected to hold rates steady. However, the FOMC's September meeting could finally bring Americans the relief they've been waiting for — CME FedWatch showed markets think it's all but certain the Fed will cut rates that month. Lower interest rates would make borrowing more affordable for consumers and businesses alike. "You have kept interest rates too high for too long: it is time to cut rates," they wrote.

Persons: it's, Claudia Sahm, Greg McBride, There's, Jerome Powell, Powell, Sahm, Matt Colyar, September's, Elizabeth Warren, Jacky Rosen, John Hickenlooper Organizations: Service, Federal, CME FedWatch, Business, New Century Advisors, Fed, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Democratic, Moody's

☆ Here's everything you need to know about the Fed decision coming Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Market pricing currently indicates an absolute certainty that the Fed will approve its first reduction in more than four years — when it meets Sept. 17-18. They don't want investors to start pricing in a rate cut coming in September and there's literally nothing else that could possibly happen," he said. "Opening the door for that rate cut is probably the most appropriate thing for them at this point," Reynolds added. Expectations for easingGlenmede expects that starting in September, the Fed could cut at each of the three remaining meetings. The Fed will not provide an update on its quarterly summary of economic projections at this meeting.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Chris Kleponis, they've, Michael Reynolds, Reynolds, there's, it'll, Powell, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Mericle, Bill English, We've Organizations: Banking, Housing, Urban, Capitol, AFP, Getty, Glenmede, Fed Locations: Washington ,, Yale, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ The first Fed interest rate cut in years is on the horizon. Here's what homeowners, buyers need to know
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-29 | by ( Ana Teresa Solá | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Valentinrussanov | E+ | Getty ImagesThe Federal Reserve is poised to make the first interest rate cut in years this fall, which can influence mortgage rates to go down. To that point, people in the market to buy a home have been eagerly waiting for the Fed to cut rates. The Fed is meeting this week, but experts say it seems more likely that the first rate cut will come in September. That would be the first rate cut since 2020 in the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic. While mortgage rates are fixed and mostly tied to Treasury yields and the economy, they are partly influenced by the Fed's policy.

Persons: Chen Zhao, Freddie Mac, Refinance, it's, Zhao, Selma Hepp, Hepp, Jacob Channel, there's Organizations: Fed, Treasury, Mortgage, Association, Finance Locations: Redfin

☆ Markets now pricing in three rate cuts before the end of the year following better inflation news
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Improving news on inflation again has raised investors' hopes that the Federal Reserve soon will start to aggressively lower interest rates. Futures market pricing now indicates that while the Fed will remain on hold at next week's policy meeting, it will commence cutting in September and move again in November and December. The market-implied probability for a September cut nudged up to about 90% Friday morning, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool that measures fed funds futures pricing. Traders in early 2024 were pricing in at least six cuts this year, but the central bank's rate-setting group has remained on hold for a year. Following the two-day meeting that concludes next Wednesday, the Fed meeting schedule is empty for August, save for the all-important annual conclave in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, —, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Friday's Commerce Department, RSM, Traders, Federal Open, Fed Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ Fed’s key inflation gauge rose 2.5% in June from a year ago, in line with expectations
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Fed officials use the PCE measure as their main baseline to gauge inflation, which continues to run above the central bank's 2% long-range target. An important gauge for the Federal Reserve showed inflation eased slightly from a year ago in June, helping to open the way for a widely anticipated September interest rate cut. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, showed a monthly increase of 0.2% and 2.6% on the year, both also in line with expectations. Goods prices fell 0.2% on the month, while services increased 0.2%. The report also indicated that personal income rose just 0.2%, below the 0.4% estimate.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ Oil prices rise as investors look for signs U.S. rate cuts to begin
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

An aerial view of Phillips 66 oil refinery is seen in Linden, New Jersey, United States. Oil prices rose in early trade on Monday as investors keep a lookout for signs of a rate-cut cycle expected to begin as soon as September. "Since the June FOMC meeting, inflation and labor market data have signaled that disinflation and labor market rebalancing are in place, which we expect will allow the Fed to begin its interest rate cutting cycle in September," ANZ Research said in a note. Slower-than-expected economic growth of 4.7% for China in the second quarter sparked concerns last week over the country's demand for oil and continues to weigh on prices. The 60-point document's publication follows last week's closed-door meeting of the Communist Party's Central Committee that takes place roughly every five years.

Persons: Phillips, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump Organizations: Brent, U.S . West Texas, Fed, ANZ Research, U.S . Federal Reserve, Market, Republican, Communist Party's Central Committee Locations: Linden , New Jersey, United States, U.S, China

When the Federal Reserve adjusts the federal funds rate, the decision affects banking products. It holds eight meetings annually, and one of the primary topics discussed is the federal funds rate. As a consumer, you'll see that changes to the federal funds rate impact banking products. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate several times in 2023 to combat inflation, which is why savings rates are still competitive in mid-2024. If the Fed raises interest rates, interest rates on banking products will likely be impacted.

Persons: aren't, Jerome Powell, Banks, it's Organizations: Fed, Federal Reserve, Market, Governors, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bank, Reserve Bank, Market Committee, Chevron

I asked a financial planner whether I should take money out of savings if interest rates drop. I haven't felt ready to follow their advice, especially since my high-yield savings account at Ally Bank has been offering 4% to 5% APY on the money in the account. If that happens, it might make sense for me to move money out of my high-yield savings account. I met with certified financial planner Jake Skelhorn, who shared three things I can do with that cash if interest rates drop. "While more volatile year-to-year, stock market returns have averaged approximately 10%, which is about double what you're getting in a high-yield savings account today."

Persons: it's, they've, haven't, Jake Skelhorn, Skelhorn Organizations: Ally Bank

Read previewFormer President Donald Trump said the Federal Reserve should not cut interest rates before the presidential election, according to an interview he did with Bloomberg Businessweek. The Federal Open Market Committee has two interest rate decisions scheduled before the election in July and September. "I think it's past time for them to cut interest rates," Zandi said. During a February interview with Fox News, Trump accused Powell of being "political" and planning interest rate cuts to coincide with the election. "I think he's going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates," Trump said, adding that "it looks to me like he's trying to lower interest rates for the sake of maybe getting people elected."

Persons: —, Donald Trump, Trump, Jerome Powell, Mark Zandi, Powell, Zandi, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, he's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Businessweek, Business, Democratic, Federal, Reserve, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Fed, New Century Advisors, Fox News, Stanford's Business, Government, Society, Trump, Wall Street

☆ Lower interest rates could be coming soon. Here's what's at stake if they aren't.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Madison Hoff | Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

At the end of July, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its next decision on interest rates. Some economists have recently been pointing to similar concerns with the Fed keeping interest rates high. As Sahm pointed out, it would take time for reduced interest rates to "flow through to the economy." "You want to begin a process of taking the pressure off of the economy," Sahm said. AdvertisementZandi said interest rates on credit cards and Buy Now, Pay Later rates could come down, along with a decline in auto lending rates and mortgage rates.

Persons: —, Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Powell, Claudia Sahm, it's, Sahm, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Brian Rose, Rose, Zandi, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Service, Moody's, Business, Federal, CME FedWatch, Fed, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Sahm Consulting, Federal Reserve, Democratic, UBS, Chicago Federal, Wall Street Journal

☆ Fed Governor Waller sees central bank 'getting closer' to an interest rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday suggested that interest rate cuts are ahead soon as long as there are no major surprises on inflation and employment. "So, while I don't believe we have reached our final destination, I do believe we are getting closer to the time when a cut in the policy rate is warranted." Keeping with statements from other policymakers, Waller's sentiments point to an unlikelihood of a rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month, but a stronger likelihood of a move in September. "Given that I believe the first two scenarios have the highest probability of occurring, I believe the time to lower the policy rate is drawing closer," Waller said. Williams noted that inflation data is "all moving in the right direction and doing that pretty consistently" and is "getting us closer to a disinflationary trend that we're looking for."

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, John Williams, Williams Organizations: Federal, Kansas City Fed, Market Committee, CNBC, New York Fed, Wall Street, Fed, Traders

☆ The Fed is 'getting closer' to cutting interest rates, top official says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The Fed will cut rates in the "not-too-distant future" if inflation and the labor market remain favorable. That's according to Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who delivered remarks on Wednesday. Other Fed officials still say they still need to see more data inflation is cooling. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve is getting ready to cut interest rates.

Persons: Christopher Waller, — Organizations: Service, Reserve, Kansas City Fed, Business

☆ The world's most accurate economist shares his US economic and political outlook, as well as the secret behind his accuracy
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-14 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Whether it's the markets or the Federal Open Market Committee, no one seems to be getting their forecasts right. But if you want the closest thing to accuracy, French economist Christophe Barraud may be your best bet. One caveat is that Trump would need 60 seats in the Senate to implement policy changes smoothly, Barraud noted. Where uncertainty in a Trump presidency remains is on the geopolitical front, Barraud noted.

Persons: —, Christophe Barraud, haven't, Barraud, it's, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, He's Organizations: Service, Federal, Market, Market Securities Monaco, Bloomberg, Business, Trump, Republican, Fed Locations: China, delinquencies, France, Italy, Ukraine, Russia

☆ Fed Chair Powell says holding rates high for too long could jeopardize economic growth
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a House Financial Services Committee hearing on the "Federal Reserve's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report" on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., March 6, 2024. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday expressed concern that holding interest rates too high for too long could jeopardize economic growth. Setting the stage for a two-day appearance on Capitol Hill this week, the central bank leader said the economy remains strong as does the labor market, despite some recent cooling. Powell cited some easing in inflation, which he said policymakers stay resolute in bringing down to their 2% goal. The commentary coincides with the approaching one-year anniversary of the last time the Federal Open Market Committee raised benchmark interest rates.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Financial, Federal Locations: Washington , U.S

☆ The 'coveted soft landing' is here, Biden's top labor official says — and it could set Americans up for an interest rate cut in September
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Since last fall, the Federal Reserve has held interest rates steady as it continued fighting to get inflation closer to its 2% target. Alongside the Federal Open Market Committee's announcement to hold interest rates steady during its most recent meeting in June, the Summary of Economic Projections penciled in just one interest rate cut for 2024. However, Powell said during the June press conference that there was still time to change that projection — and that a rate cut in September is "plausible." "It's going to be the totality of the data, what's happening in the labor market, what's happening with the balance of risks, what's happening with the forecast, what's happening with growth," he said. CME FedWatch, which estimates market assessments of the probability of interest rate cuts, projects a 93% chance interest rates will remain steady in July and a 72% chance rates will be cut by September.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Julie Su, Su, Powell, Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs, Hatzius Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, of Labor Statistics, Fed, CNBC Locations: —

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Tesla powers S&P 500, Nasdaq to record highs
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-04 | by ( Abid Ali | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Record highsThe S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs in a shortened session ahead of the July 4 Independence Day holiday. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell as the latest economic data indicated the jobs market was cooling. Despite some officials advocating for potential rate hikes, the Federal Open Market Committee ultimately decided to hold rates steady. [PRO] Tesla bull caseWedbush analyst Dan Ives raised his Tesla price target to $300 from $275, with a bull case of $400 by 2025.

Persons: Nela Richardson, Elliott Management's, Elliott, Bob Jordan, Gary Kelly, JPMorgan's Kolanovic, Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Dubravko, Dan Ives Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Dow Jones, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal, Market Committee, ADP, Southwest Airlines Locations: U.S

☆ Fed says it's not ready to cut rates until 'greater confidence' inflation is moving to 2% goal
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-03 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve officials at their June meeting indicated that inflation is moving in the right direction but not quickly enough for them to lower interest rates, minutes released Wednesday showed. "Participants affirmed that additional favorable data were required to give them greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent," the meeting summary said. The Fed targets 2% annual inflation, a level it has been above since early in 2021. Since the meeting, officials have largely stuck to a cautious script stressing data dependency rather than forecasts. However, there have been indications from multiple officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, that continued encouraging readings on inflation would provide confidence that rates can be lowered.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal, Open Market, Fed Locations: Portugal

LONDON — European stocks closed higher Wednesday, as sentiment remains on edge ahead of two major elections. The index provisionally closed 0.8% higher, with most sectors in the green led by mining stocks, up 2.3%. Maersk shares ticked 3.8% higher after the shipping giant withdrew from sales talks with logistics firm DB Schenker. It comes as figures showed softening in the U.S. labor market. ADP data showed less private payroll growth than expected in June, while weekly jobless claims numbers came in higher than forecast.

Persons: Vincent Clerc, Jerome Powell Organizations: Maersk, DB Schenker, Labour Party, Reuters, U.S, Federal Locations: France, Asia, Pacific, U.S

☆ Stock futures are little changed after S&P 500 closes above 5,500 level: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-02 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange on June 24, 2024. During Tuesday's main trading session, the broad market index rose 0.62% to close above 5,500 for the first time. U.S. stock futures traded near the flatline Wednesday morning after the S&P 500 closed above 5,500 for the first time. As the S&P 500 continues to climb, concern is growing across Wall Street that the narrow leadership of the rally is not sustainable for much longer. The New York Stock Exchange closes early at 1 p.m.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Scott Chronert, Chronert Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Dow, Paramount Global, Wall Street, The New York Times, Skydance Media, Federal Reserve, Citi Research, P Global U.S, Services, ISM, The New York Stock Exchange, Independence Locations: U.S

☆ Wall Street kicks off the second half of 2024 with key jobs report in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-28 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

The S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are hovering around all-time highs, having rallied roughly 15% and 18%, respectively. The 30-stock Dow and S & P 500 each posted losses, down by 0.1%, each. In recent days, a number of Wall Street firms have hiked their year-end S & P 500 targets to catch up with this year's surprisingly strong rally. On a median basis, strategists expect the S & P 500 will end the year at 5,500, a CNBC Pro survey shows . June jobs report Markets will be closed Thursday for the Fourth of July holiday.

Persons: chipmaker, Craig Johnson, Piper Sandler, Goldman Sachs, Scott Chronert, CNBC's, Chronert, Piper Sandler's Johnson, Bill Merz, Merz, He's, Jamie Meyers, Laffer Tengler, he's, Meyers, Bank's Merz Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Nvidia, Microsoft, Deutsche Bank Research, Equity, Dow, Wall Street, Citi, ISI, CNBC, U.S, Bank Wealth Management, PMI, Manufacturing, ADP, PMI Services, Services PMI, Constellation Locations: U.S

☆ CNBC's Inside India newsletter: The humble onion could be holding India's economy hostage
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

A seller is arranging onions at a vegetable market in Nagaon district, in the northeastern state of Assam, India, on February 1, 2024. This report is from this week's CNBC's "Inside India" newsletter which brings you timely, insightful news and market commentary on the emerging powerhouse and the big businesses behind its meteoric rise. Food prices, which rose an annual 8.7% in both April and May, account for nearly half of the overall consumer price basket. "The Indian economy remains hostage to intersecting food price shocks," Michael Patra, deputy governor of the Reserve Bank of India, said in his statement at the latest monetary policy meeting. "Food prices are holding back any consideration of possible changes in the monetary policy stance," he added.

Persons: Michael Patra, Jayanth Varma, bode, Sanjeev Chopra, Narendra Modi, abate, James Thom Organizations: CNBC, Reserve Bank of India, New, New India Investment Trust Locations: Nagaon district, Assam, India, New India, London

☆ Fed officials are talking down the chance of rate cut this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

London CNN —At the beginning of the year, Federal Reserve officials projected they would cut interest rates three times this year. The labor-force participation rate has leveled off after a post-Covid boom, and the US immigration policy rate may soon become more restrictive, limiting potential new labor market participants. “Reducing our policy rate too soon or too quickly could result in a rebound in inflation, requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2% over the longer run.”Investors weren’t happy to hear it. That’s why not taking preemptive action when it’s not necessary is so important.”Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has also been particularly hawkish in his views. He also said rate hikes are “certainly not off the table.”Like Bowman and Kashkari, New York Fed President John Williams said rate hikes aren’t part of his baseline outlook.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, she’s, ” Bowman, Bowman, ”, Dow, Mary Daly, Daly, ” Daly, “ We’re, it’s, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari, John Williams, he’s Organizations: London CNN —, Federal Reserve, Exchange, London ., Federal, Market, Nvidia, San Francisco Fed, Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California, Chicago Fed, Minneapolis, Kashkari , New York Fed, Commerce Department Locations: London, San Francisco, Kashkari , New

☆ Fed Governor Bowman says she's still open to raising rates if inflation doesn't improve
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Michelle Bowman, governor of the US Federal Reserve, speaks during the Exchequer Club meeting in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 21, 2024. Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman said Tuesday the time is not right yet to start lowering interest rates, adding she would be open to raising if inflation doesn't pull back. "However, we are still not yet at the point where it is appropriate to lower the policy rate." The Commerce Department on Friday will release its reading on the May personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect a 12-month inflation rate of 2.6% on both the all-items and core, which excludes food and energy prices.

Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Dow Jones, Mary Daly, Daly, CNBC's Deirdre Bosa, it's, Austan Goolsbee, CNBC's Steve Liesman Organizations: US Federal Reserve, Federal, Market, Commerce Department, European Central Bank, San Francisco Fed, Chicago Fed Locations: Washington , DC, London, U.S, San Francisco

☆ The Fed is 'playing with fire' by not cutting rates, says creator of 'Sahm Rule' recession indicator
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Economist Claudia Sahm has shown that when the unemployment rate's three-month average is half a percentage point higher than its 12-month low, the economy is in recession. "My baseline is not recession," Sahm said. "The worst possible outcome at this point is for the Fed to cause an unnecessary recession," she added. That's the highest the Sahm reading has been on an ascending basis since the early days of the Covid pandemic. The value essentially represents the percentage point difference from the three-month unemployment rate average compared to its 12-month low, which in this case is 3.5%.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, I'm, Jerome Powell Organizations: Exchange, CNBC, Federal, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Committee

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