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☆ Prepare for more stock-market jitters after the debt-ceiling deal, Morgan Stanley warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The debt-ceiling deal could drive up stock-market uncertainty, according to Morgan Stanley. Investors should brace themselves for a rise in uncertainty in the aftermath of the 11th-hour debt-ceiling compromise, according to Morgan Stanley. Morgan Stanley's Tirupattur said the Treasury would also likely issue a flurry of bills in a bid to raise more cash once a debt-ceiling deal has been voted through Congress. Investors snapping up these short-term bonds could "drain liquidity in the system" for stocks and other assets, Tirupattur wrote. Read more: Wall Street is bracing for stock market chaos as the debt-ceiling face-off drags on

☆ Home price declines may be over, S&P Case-Shiller says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Diana Olick | In Dianaolick | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Nationally, home prices in March were 0.7% higher than March 2022, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices said Tuesday. "The modest increases in home prices we saw a month ago accelerated in March 2023," said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, in a release. Before seasonal adjustment, prices rose in all 20 cities in March (versus in 12 in February), and in all 20 price gains accelerated between February and March. Miami, Tampa, Florida, and Charlotte, North Carolina, saw the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in March. Compared with a year ago, 19 of 20 cities reported lower prices with only Chicago showing an increase at 0.4%.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, May 30 (Reuters) - Asia's imports of seaborne thermal coal surged to the highest on record in May as cheaper prices tempted buyers in the region's developing economies. This is the most in Kpler data going back to January 2017, while Refinitiv data also shows record imports in May in data stretching back to January 2015. Rising thermal coal imports come as seaborne prices for the fuel continue to decline, with two of the more popular grades slipping to 16-month lows in the week to May 26. While lower prices and rising electricity demand are driving thermal coal imports in developing Asia, the advanced economies in north Asia are experiencing their usual seasonal lull between winter and summer peaks. Fourth-ranked South Korea will import 6.03 million tonnes in May, down from 6.70 million in April and 6.42 million in March.

☆ The housing market is seeing a shift as landlords turn less aggressive - but 65% still plan to raise rent prices
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

About 65% of US landlords plan to raise rents in the next 12 months, a new survey from Avail by Realtor.com showed. Rent prices climbed 0.29% in April on an annual basis, the smallest yearly increase in more than three years. Of the landlords who said they don't plan to raise rent, 48.2% said they aim to retain renters and avoid turnover, given the current market conditions. Meanwhile, Rent.com data shows that rent prices climbed 0.29% in April on a year-over-year basis, the smallest annual increase in more than three years. With rent prices still hovering close to record-highs, that poses an obstacle for landlords looking to keep units occupied moving into 2024.

☆ ‘Greedflation’ loosens its grip on food retailers
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-24 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Big food manufacturers like Kraft Heinz (KHC.O) and Unilever (ULVR.L) are ratcheting down the price rises they have been inflicting onto supermarket chains. If food retailers can convince cash-strapped customers to skimp less and pay more, their profit margins will finally start growing. Last week, the country’s food retailers opened negotiations on prices with manufacturers like Coca-Cola (KO.N) and Unilever as food inflation surged to over 15% in March. Food manufacturers can certainly do more. Meanwhile, food inflation remained high at 19.1% in April versus 19.2% in March.

LAUNCESTON, Australia, May 22 (Reuters) - The spot price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia is in the sweet spot of being low enough to boost buying interest, but not so low that it sparks a surge in demand. The decline in spot LNG prices has seen demand in key Asian importers hold steady, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. The seasonal softness can be seen in Japan's May imports dropping to an expected 4.24 million tonnes from 5.0 million in April and 5.55 million in March. However, it's likely that the decline in spot prices will only boost demand from June onwards, and there are some early signs that this is already happening. The lower spot price in Asia is also working to boost buying interest in Europe, with May imports expected at 12.28 million tonnes, up a smidgeon from April's 12.27 million.

☆ The Great Resignation is giving way to the 'Big Stay' as job-hopping slows down
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

It may be accurate to say the quitting situation is evolving into the "Big Stay," per ADP's chief economist. "The Big Quit of 2022 could be easing into the Big Stay of 2023," Richardson wrote in her recent commentary. "A year later, all three of these dynamics are abating, and the great resignation itself is looking like a thing of the past." Pollak said that "to the extent that there is a big stay, it is not taking place across the economy." Even if the Great Resignation might not be prevalent in all areas of the economy right now, it could emerge again.

☆ US annual inflation increase slows to below 5%, price pressures still strong
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Consumer prices decelerated to 4.9% year-on-year, the 10th straight month of slowdown as prices react to the Fed's rate-tightening cycle. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI increased 0.4% last month, matching March's gain. Though rents continued to put upward pressure on the core CPI, rental inflation is poised to ease. The government reported last week that the rental vacancy rate increased to a two-year high in the first quarter. In the 12 months through April, the core CPI gained 5.5% after advancing by 5.6% in March.

☆ US consumer prices increase solidly in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after gaining 0.1% in March, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through April, the CPI increased 4.9% after advancing 5.0% on a year-on-year basis in March. Gasoline prices rose last month after Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers announced further oil output cuts. The Fed has hiked its policy rate by 500 basis points since March 2022. The government reported last week that the rental vacancy rate increased to a two-year high in the first quarter.

☆ Inflation continued to cool in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

"As inflation has remained elevated, Fed decision makers were unanimous in the vote to raise rates again at the most recent meeting." CPI climbed 0.4% month over month, per seasonally adjusted data. That's equivalent to the 0.4% forecast and more than the 0.1% month-over-month growth in March. Core CPI showed some cooling in the latest report; the previous year-over-year increase in March was 5.6%. With US inflation higher than the goal of 2%, the Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates.

☆ Housing inflation slows, with potentially bullish implications for stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Most notably, shelter inflation — the chart below measures the annual rate of CPI shelter inflation — slowed for the first time since February 2021. If future data bears this out, it would be a material milestone in the Fed's war on inflation. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference in Washington, D.C., the United States, on May 3, 2023. The U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 5-5.25 percent, saying that the Fed "remains highly attentive to inflation risks."

☆ Morning Bid: Inflation cloud obscures Fed peak
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

With markets edgy about the U.S. debt ceiling standoff and ongoing ripples from the March regional banking blow out, the running assumption is the Fed's campaign is over and disinflation underway. New York Fed chief John Williams said yesterday it's too soon to say the central bank is done and dusted. If consensus forecasts are correct, the April inflation readout later on Wednesday may well force the Fed to keep that equivocal line up for a bit longer. Futures markets show only a 15% chance of another Fed hike next month, with quarter point rate cut almost fully priced by September. Visibility is low in the fixed income market, however, due to the debt ceiling impasse.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Bracing for April’s consumer price index
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Markets had a quiet Tuesday as investors braced for key inflation reports coming out later today and Thursday. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. April's jobs report showed the labor market's still going strong, which might contribute to price pressures. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Bracing for April’s CPI reading
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Investors are hoping April's CPI reading will show dipping prices. April's jobs report showed the labor market's still going strong, which might contribute to price pressures. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ China's exports rose 8.5%, continuing its growth streak at a slower pace
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

China's exports grew 8.5% in April in U.S. dollar terms, marking a second-straight month of growth, while imports fell 7.9% compared with a year ago. Economists polled by Reuters estimated exports would rise 8% in April, while imports were forecast to remain unchanged. In March, imports declined 1.4% year-on-year while exports saw a surprise jump of 14.8%, government data showed. Goldman Sachs economists expected to see "the dissipation of this seasonal bias to slow export growth in April," they wrote in a note earlier this month previewing China's trade data. "China is past the fastest stage of its reopening," Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a separate Friday note.

BEIJING, May 8 (Reuters) - China's exports were expected to have risen again in April, albeit at a less robust pace than a month earlier, a Reuters poll showed, supported by unfulfilled orders after last year's COVID disruptions though slowing global growth is darkening the outlook. With many of China's major trade partners on the brink of recession, analysts remain wary about the outlook, noting that the stunning improvement in March partly reflects suppliers catching up with unfulfilled orders from last year's COVID disruptions. South Korean exports to China, a leading indicator of China's imports, were down 26.5% in April, continuing 10 consecutive months of decline. China's economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter thanks to robust services consumption, but factory output has lagged amid weak global growth. The government has set a modest GDP growth target of around 5% for this year, after badly missing the 2022 goal.

☆ Australia business activity robust in April, cost pressures still a challenge
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, May 8 (Reuters) - Australian business conditions remained sturdy in April, supported by robust sales and labour market strength despite high inflation and rising interest rates, while cost pressures were still posing a challenge for firms. The survey from National Australia Bank Ltd (NAB) (NAB.AX) released on Monday showed its index of business conditions fell two points to +14 in April, but stayed well above its long-run average. The volatile measure of confidence edged up to 0, compared with March's -1, suggesting that an equal share of firms were optimistic as pessimistic. The still strong business activity showed why the Reserve Bank of Australia stunned markets last week by lifting rates to an 11-year high of 3.85%, when traders had looked for an extended pause, and warned that more tightening might be needed. Cost growth remained a challenge, with the measure of labour costs steadying at a quarterly rate of 1.9% and purchase costs picking up to 2.3%, compared with 1.9% in March.

☆ Japan's service activity grows at record pace in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, May 8 - Japan's services activity grew at a record pace in April, a private-sector survey showed on Monday, helped by a boost in consumer spending following the end of COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. New orders expanded at the fastest pace on record, the survey showed, citing a sharp return of spending for travel and tourism. "Around four times as many service providers expect an increase in activity as those that forecast a decline," Moore said. The subindex for employment expanded for a third month and at the fastest pace in four years, helped by stronger demand and confidence. The composite PMI, which combines the manufacturing and services figures, grew at the fastest pace since June 2022.

☆ Japan's service activity grows at record pace in April - PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

☆ 'Recession is a done deal': A renowned market bear who called the dot-com bubble warns a deep and long downturn will destroy corporate profit margins — setting stocks up for disaster
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

But as data continues to come out in the months ahead, Edwards says to pay attention to details beneath the headline numbers. Sure enough, revisions to February and March numbers reported on Friday paint a picture of a weakening labor market. "I think the recession will lead to a collapse in margins and profits and do a lot of damage." In terms of his view on the labor market, Edwards has company in Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. But bulls do remain, and they're betting on a scenario where inflation continues to come down — it hit 5% in March, down from its 9.1% peak last year — and the labor market remains intact.

☆ Stocks are set for more volatility as the 'unlucky 13' months of strong job growth complicates the Fed's mission to cool the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A blowout jobs report and could make the Fed's job of tamping down inflation harder. The April US jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls grew by of 253,000 and a fall in the unemployment rate to 3.4%. Wages are key to the Fed's inflation outlook, and April brought a 0.5% rise in average hourly pay – the biggest monthly increase in a year. "This is a market that's really going to struggle. "It's too early to assess the likelihood of an additional Fed rate hike in mid-June, but this latest jobs report will push the excessively data-dependent Fed towards further tightening – a mistake in our view."

☆ The jobs market bounced back in April after recent cooling
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

New data out Friday shows the job market is doing well. The unemployment rate ticked down in April; the rate was 3.4%. Job growth was expected to majorly cooldown from the growth experienced in March. Powell also noted how the job market is doing at the press conference. He said the "labor market remains very tight" and that "labor demand still substantially exceeds the supply of available workers."

☆ China's service sector remains a bright spot as factory data disappoints, Caixin reading shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Jihye Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

China's services activity remained well within growth territory in April as a private survey showed a softer reading from March. Atlantide Phototravel | Corbis Documentary | Getty ImagesChina's services activity remained well within growth territory in April, even as a private survey showed a softer reading compared with March. The latest Caixin reading suggests that services activity is still "undergoing a fast recovery," according to Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group. The continued expansion in China's services activity stood in contrast to the disappointing factory activity reported earlier in the week. "It is worth noting that manufacturing and services activity diverged, with employment and input costs in the manufacturing sector contracting significantly," Wang wrote.

☆ Slower US job growth expected in April; unemployment rate seen rising to 3.6%
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

The unemployment rate is forecast to have risen to a still historically low 3.6%. "The labor market is slowly bending, but not breaking," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. "There is continued resilience in the labor market right now, but the trend is one that is continuing to see a decelerating pace of momentum." The service-providing sector likely accounted for most of the anticipated job gains in April. WAGE GAINS MODERATEAverage hourly earnings are expected to have risen by 0.3% in April, matching March's gain.

☆ Take Five: Sell in May?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The services component of the price data can gauge demand, but consumer and producer price data broadly paint a picture of deflation. April inflation data is out Thursday. At 10.1%, UK inflation is the highest in Western Europe. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics4/ SELL IN MAYConventional wisdom has it that May is the ideal point to take profit on equities and lay low until later in the year. "Sell in May and go away" is based on the premise that the best six-month period of the year for stock market returns is November to April, while the leanest is May to October.

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