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But an unexpected jump in UK inflation last month led investors to bet heavily that the Bank of England will raise interest rates by at least another 25 bps on Thursday. SVB's collapse kicked off a tumultuous 10 days for banks which led to the 3 billion Swiss franc ($3.2 billion) Swiss regulator-engineered takeover of Credit Suisse by rival UBS. While that deal brought some respite to battered banking stocks, U.S. lender First Republic remains firmly in the spotlight. First Republic (FRC.N) shares fell 9% in extended trade on Tuesday, having surged as much as 60% at one stage. For now, the Swiss bank rescue appears to have assuaged the worst fears of systemic contagion, boosting shares of European banks (.SX7P) and U.S. lenders (.SPXBK).
LONDON, March 22 (Reuters) - The banking turmoil sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is not yet over, and a significant number of banks will fail within two years, the CEO of hedge fund Man Group (EMG.L) told a Bloomberg conference in London on Wednesday. Asked whether the crisis in the sector was over, Man Group's Luke Ellis told delegates he did not think so. "I think we will have significantly more banks that don't exist in 12-24 months," Ellis said, adding that he thought smaller and regional banks in the United States and challenger banks in Britain could be at risk. Many hedge funds have made money from the banking sector volatility in recent days by betting against banks. Central banks globally have responded to the turmoil with coordinated measures to ensure the flow of cash between banks around the world.
LONDON, March 22 (Reuters) - The banking turmoil sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is not yet over, and a significant number of banks will fail within two years, the CEO of hedge fund Man Group (EMG.L), Luke Ellis, told a Bloomberg conference in London on Wednesday. Asked whether the crisis in the sector was over, Ellis told delegates at the event he did not think so. "I think we will have significantly more banks that don’t exist in 12-24 months," he said, adding that he thought smaller and regional banks in the United States and challenger banks in Britain could be at risk. Ellis said technology such as social media had accelerated the timescale at which concerns about banks could circulate. Many hedge funds have made money from the volatility in the banking sector in recent days by betting against banks, although Ellis said he had no positions in U.S. regional banks.
Markets initially interpreted the omission as a sign that rates might be peaking, and drove Treasury yields to session lows after the Fed's statement was released. The two-year yield , which falls with traders' expectations of a less hawkish Fed, fell to 3.9597% from Tuesday's close of 4.177%. Data also showed British inflation unexpectedly rose to 10.4% in February, lifting expectations for a quarter point rate hike at Thursday's Bank of England meeting, boosting sterling. German two-year yields overnight recorded the biggest daily jump since 2008 as markets went back to pricing in more ECB hikes. The dollar index fell on the Fed's dovish note, shedding 0.62%, and a softer dollar lifted the yen to 131.39 .
Kanye West blunder puts Adidas in play
  + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
After a disastrous breakup with the musician formerly known as Kanye West, the $28 billion sneaker maker is slashing dividends and heading for the first loss in decades. Last year, Adidas spent 12.3% of its 22.5 billion euros of revenue on marketing and similar expenses. If it were to return to the 13.9% it allocated in 2015, it would add 2 billion euros of extra costs over the next five years, Breakingviews calculations show. Swooping on Adidas would allow the U.S. athleisure giant to dominate sportswear by servicing women and men across a wide spectrum of categories. Shares in Adidas were down 2.4% at 144.50 euros by 0859 GMT on March 15.
Man Group (EMG.L), as a public company traded on London's FTSE 100 index, is a rarity among hedge funds. Large investors such as pension schemes and sovereign wealth funds use hedge funds to guard against broader market volatility. The broader HFRI Composite Index, which tracks the performance of hedge funds, rose by about 12% in 2020, according to data firm Hedge Fund Research (HFR). Over the last three years, Man Group, which uses discretionary and computer led strategies to trade, has taken in $18.7 billion of new client money and made $11.5 billion in investment gains. In 2008, Peter Clarke, the former CEO of the hedge fund, took home $14 million.
The real estate sector (.SX86P) dropped 3.2% to more than two month lows, with shares in Germany's LEG Immobilien (LEGn.DE) tumbling 11.4% after the firm suspended its dividend. The STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) closed down 0.2% after recouping some of its losses earlier in the trading session. Although European stocks had a good start to the year, mixed economic data from China and worries that the ECB would stay hawkish for longer strained momentum in equities to the end of February and into March. Hugo Boss (BOSSn.DE) fell 2.1% after the German fashion house forecast 2023 sales to grow more slowly than last year. Shares of Dassault Aviation (AM.PA) soared 12.2% to a record high after the French aircraft manufacturer reported better-than-expected results for 2022.
Man Group shares surge on bumper performance fees
  + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
A September rout in British gilt markets drove many UK pension funds to scour for cash, after investments into liability-driven investment (LDI) funds resulted in billions of pounds worth of collateral calls. Many pension funds reached for profitable investments they had elsewhere, like hedge funds as well as investments into collateralised loan obligations. Some of the strategies from which investors withdrew money were posting double digit returns at the time, he added. He declined to say how much money he'd seen back from pension schemes this quarter. Separately, Man said its chairman John Cryan had decided to retire from the board towards the end of 2023.
The company posted full year core pretax profit of $779 million, up 18% on the previous year. It recorded a core net management fee growth of 6% collecting $779 million of core performance fees. "An increase in volatility and higher dispersion meant higher alpha generation. The firm recorded net inflows of $3.1 billion for 2022, down 77% against a year earlier, although this was 5.3% higher than the average posted by the UK hedge fund industry. Many pension funds reached for profitable investments they had elsewhere, like hedge funds as well as investments into collateralised loan obligations.
The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) lost 0.6% with shares of Ocado (OCDO.L) plunging 10.5% on the online supermarket and technology group's worse-than-expected full-year loss. "Ocado is in the eye of the cost-of-living storm because its offering isn't synonymous with being the best value," said Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. Lund-Yates said Ocado is a higher-end option, without the same benefits of enticing people with tangible, physical goods like peer Marks & Spencer (MKS.L). Despite recent volatility, the exporter-heavy FTSE 100 is on track to record its best February performance since 2017 as higher earnings and weakness in the pound earlier in the month made equities more attractive. On the flipside, hedge fund firm Man Group (EMG.L) gained 7.9% after posting a higher full-year core pretax profit and beating expectations on assets under management.
Abrdn turnaround is still a marathon, not sprint
  + stars: | 2023-02-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
LONDON, Feb 28 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Abrdn (ABDN.L) still has one big problem. Chief Executive Stephen Bird’s turnaround at the $5 billion asset manager is gaining traction. Full-year results on Tuesday showed that interactive investor, the savings platform he acquired last year, grew revenue by 20%, despite lower trading volumes. Assets under management fell 19%, after factoring in falling markets and client outflows, to 376 billion pounds, while operating profit fell 55%. That may cost some 200 million pounds, nearly double the unit’s 2022 operating profit.
Volkswagen faced a barrage of criticism from campaigners Tuesday after the head of its Chinese business said he saw no sign of forced labor during a visit to the carmaker’s plant in Xinjiang. Activists and an international group of lawmakers said verifying labor standards in the region was impossible. Rights groups have documented human rights abuses in Xinjiang since the 2000s, including mass forced labor in detention camps which the United Nations said could constitute crimes against humanity. Brandstaetter said he saw no signs of forced labor and that workers’ comments matched the reports Volkswagen had received from SAIC about the plant. Reputational riskVolkswagen says it has never found evidence of forced labor among its Xinjiang workforce and its presence is positive for the local population.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Neuberger Berman Group CIO Joseph AmatoJoe Amato, Neuberger Berman CIO, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss inflation, earnings, the Fed and the economy.
How big hedge funds would trade sticky inflation
  + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
LONDON, Feb 16 (Reuters) - Hedge funds, pinning little hope on central banks' attempts to cool inflation, are spotting ways to profit from climbing interest rates. Five prominent hedge funds shared five ideas using five different asset classes to profit from inflation so pugnacious it might force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer. Lancaster favours a trade selling long-term borrowing costs against shorter-term ones, on the view that the spread between them will decline. "Concern now for markets is that reacceleration of the economy will lead to higher terminal rates," said Lancaster. Buying U.S. long-dated natural gas futures for these reasons and also, he added, "in an inflationary cost/wage environment looks compelling."
VW to speed up electric shift in five-year plan
  + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
BERLIN, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) will speed up its shift to electric cars and revamp its software strategy in a five-year investment plan presented by management to the supervisory board on Friday, the automaker said in a statement. Bosses discussed how to rejig the German group's production network to accelerate the move to cleaner driving, the statement said, without elaborating. Full details of what was discussed will be presented at the company's annual media conference on March 14. A spokesperson for the works council denied the Handelsblatt report, saying jobs in Hannover were guaranteed under an agreement with the company until 2029. Reporting by Jan Schwartz; Writing by Victoria Waldersee; Editing by Jan Harvey and Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
FRANKFURT, Feb 8 (Reuters) - E.ON (EONGn.DE) on Wednesday said the devastating earthquake in southern Turkey has affected the supply area of local power grid operator Enerjisa Enerji (ENJSA.IS), in which the German group owns 40%, adding that repair work was currently underway. "The supply area of our Turkish joint venture Enerjisa is also affected," the spokesperson said, adding the company mourned the loss of four employees while others were wounded, some in a critical condition. Enerjisa, in which Sabanci Holding (SAHOL.IS) also owns 40%, has more than 10 million customers in 14 Turkish provinces, including Adana and the surrounding region, which are among the affected parts of Turkey. Around 2,500 transformers - key components of long-distance power transmission - are still out of operation and 380,000 people are without electricity in Enerjisa's supply region, the spokesperson said, adding this was already down from 1 million shortly after the earthquake. Repairwork has started, the spokesperson said, adding that technical teams from less affected regions were providing support.
The campaign increases the pressure on non-executive Chairman Norbert Winkeljohann, who has faced calls from large shareholders for the swift replacement of Chief Executive Werner Baumann, who engineered Bayer's troubled Monsanto takeover. The approaches come after Ubben's activist investment fund Inclusive Capital Partners said last month it had bought a 0.83% stake in Bayer. David Herro, deputy chairman of Harris Associates, told Reuters in brief emailed comments that Ubben had contacted him to discuss Bayer. A spokesperson said Bayer was always open to a constructive dialogue with shareholders and declined to comment further. Investors who have publicly called for a swift CEO change hold at least a combined 6.7% in Bayer, according to Refinitiv data.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMan Group CEO: We have a big leg down coming when we have to deal with wage inflationMan Group CEO Luke Ellis, and Ken Rogoff, Harvard University professor of economics, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss their takeaways from Wednesday's rate hike announcement, the global central bank picture, and more.
Buzz, a fresh take on the iconic vehicle of the Volkswagen brand, during its world premiere in Paris, France, March 9, 2022. Group sales rose 14.3% in the fourth quarter, but the outlook for 2023 remains clouded by weak economies and supply chain shortages, extended executive sales committee member Hildegard Wortmann said. Audi, Lamborghini and Bentley weathered 2022 better than Volkswagen Passenger Cars and Skoda, with deliveries down around 4% at the premium brands and down 9% for mass-market vehicles. Group deliveries fell 7% versus 2021. The Volkswagen Group's deliveries were up 12% in the second half of the year, but the full-year figure was dragged down by a drop of over a fifth in the first half.
FRANKFURT, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Bayer (BAYGn.DE) shares gained 1.7% in early Wednesday trade following a report activist investor Bluebell Capital Partners has built an equity stake and is pushing for a break-up of the German pharmaceutical and agriculture company. A Bayer spokesperson, who declined to comment on the report, said: "Generally speaking we are always open for a constructive dialogue with our stakeholders." The report follows news on Monday that activist investment fund Inclusive Capital Partners, run by hedge fund veteran Jeffrey Ubben, has acquired a 0.83% stake in Bayer, which has seen its market value slide in recent years. Bayer on Tuesday flagged billions in additional sales potential from its drug development pipeline, buoying its shares. Bayer shares have lagged($1 = 0.9308 euros)Reporting by Ludwig Burger Editing by Rachel More and Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Bayer’s rude health lays better path for breakup
  + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Activists like Jeff Ubben’s Inclusive Capital Partners may now, however, be in a better position to push for a breakup. Smaller peer Bluebell Capital Partners has also bought in recently. Using UBS forecasts, they would be worth 50 billion euros and 88 billion euros respectively. Its smaller consumer drugs division might fetch another 18 billion euros, using peer Reckitt Benckiser’s (RKT.L) 12 times multiple. Add them up, take off debt, pension liabilities and a further 6 billion euros of future Roundup litigation costs, and Bayer’s equity could be worth nearly 110 billion euros.
The jump was aided by Bridgewater China's raising of 2.7 billion yuan through a product launch in December, said the sources. Connecticut-based Bridgewater launched its first onshore China fund in 2018, and three years later its assets under management (AUM) in China exceeded 10 billion yuan, catapulting the firm past Winton and Man Group to become the biggest foreign hedge fund house in the country. By early November, Bridgewater's onshore China funds grew to roughly 19 billion yuan, Shanghai government data showed. The steady performance of Bridgewater's China funds - mainly targeting wealthy individuals - was highlighted in the hedge fund firm's sales pitch, which was seen by Reuters. Bridgewater's first China fund achieved an annualised return of 15.6% in the four years following its October 2018 launch.
Both are legacy issues from Monsanto, which Bayer acquired for more than $60 billion in 2018. Another activist, Elliott, took a 1.1 billion euro stake in Bayer in 2019 but has kept a low profile. The next-generation blood thinner is one of four new drug hopefuls that Bayer said on Tuesday had combined peak sales potential of more than 12 billion euros. That included an improved outlook for kidney drug Kerendia, with potential annual sales now seen at more than 3 billion euros. ($1 = 0.9313 euros)Reporting by Ludwig Burger and Patricia Weiss Editing by Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
In a tumultuous year for BlackRock, its powerful Aladdin business won record new mandates. "2022 was a good litmus test for the BlackRock model vis-a-vis Aladdin," said Cathy Seifert, a senior equity analyst at CFRA Research. Now Sudhir Nair, the longtime BlackRock executive who runs the Aladdin business globally, and his sprawling business face a test: Keeping that momentum. "To get new business, Aladdin may have to sharpen their pencils, despite the fact that I do think they still retain a best-in-class position," Seifert said. Influential rival money managers like Two Sigma, Pimco, State Street, and Amundi have been putting resources behind their own proprietary tech platforms.
Jan 5 (Reuters) - The top 5% of the world's hedge fund managers are set to take 80-90% of investor inflows in 2023, according to new research from Agecroft Partners which raises money for hedge funds. The larger a hedge fund manager gets, the harder it is to trade in size and profit from less efficiently priced parts of the market. Data compiled by Hedge Fund Research shows that on average hedge funds were down 4.1% last year through November. The $59 billion hedge fund manager Millennium returned 9.8% in its International Ltd Fund for the year, said industry research. The number of operating hedge funds fell to 9,163 at the end of the third quarter, the lowest number since 2009, according to HFR.
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