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☆ Morning Bid: Quietly absorbing one more Fed hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A sign is seen outside the 11 Wall St. entrance of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., March 1, 2021. Early Tuesday, futures priced almost a two-thirds chance of that additional quarter-point move in November. And yet - perhaps with the uncertainty dissipating, the economy still robust and bond markets better priced - world markets appear to be taking the tighter odds in their stride. More impressively in the circumstances, restive bond markets calmed down and bond yields continued to dial back from their highest in over a decade last week. Asia bourses more widely and European indices were higher, while Wall St futures were flat ahead of the open.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell's, Jackson, Gina Raimondo, China's, Idalia, Michael Barr, JM Smucker, Susan Fenton Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Atlanta, Overseas, U.S . Commerce, Garden Holdings, Wall, U.S, Dallas Fed, Federal, Treasury, HP, Reuters Graphics, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York, U.S, Washington, Beijing, China, HK, Asia, Florida's, Coast, Cuba

☆ US stocks advance, crude rises, crucial data in the wings
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.89% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.60%. Emerging market stocks rose 0.65%. U.S. crude rose 0.34% to settle at $80.10 per barrel, while Brent settled at $84.42, down 0.07% on the day. Gold gained ground as investors continue to digest Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole commentary last week and looked forward to the week's economic data.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Chuck Carlson, Carlson, Jerome Powell, China's, Brent, Sterling, Jerome Powell's Jackson, Stephen Culp, Neil Mackenzie, Amanda Cooper, Alex Richardson, Diane Craft Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, payrolls, PMI, Federal Reserve, Horizon Investment, Beijing, Labor, Commerce, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Gulf, U.S . Treasury, Fed, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Hammond , Indiana, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, London

☆ U.S. stocks rally, crude rises as crucial data awaits
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. European stocks were sharply higher with technology shares leading the way, with an assist from China-exposed industrials. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.85% and MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.69%. Emerging market stocks rose 0.65%. Gold gained ground as investors continue to digest Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole commentary last week and looked forward to the week's economic data.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Powell, Robert Pavlik, Jerome Powell, China's, Brent, Sterling, Jerome Powell's Jackson, Stephen Culp, Neil Mackenzie, Amanda Cooper, Alex Richardson Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, payrolls, PMI, Federal Reserve, Dakota Wealth, Beijing, Labor, Commerce, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, U.S . Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Fairfield , Connecticut, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, London

World shares (.MIWD00000PUS) were up 0.3% in European trading. European stocks, led by technology shares and China-exposed automakers, also rose. But the uncomfortable message from Jackson Hole may mean a protracted higher inflation than market bulls might have hoped, said the note. Figures on European Union inflation this week may also be instrumental in whether the European Central Bank (ECB) decides to hike next month. Oil prices drew some support from the storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico and China support.

Persons: Issei Kato, Florian Ielpo, Jerome Powell, Lombard, Ielpo, Jackson, Christine Lagarde, Ben Broadbent, Kazuo Ueda, Brent, Nell Mackenzie, Amanda Cooper, Stephen Coates, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Nikkei, U.S, REUTERS, Companies, payrolls, China PMI, China, Nasdaq, FTSE, China Evergrande, HK, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Shanghai, Lombard, Traders, Federal, Fed, JPMorgan, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, China, Beijing, Generali, Hollywood, Friday's, Gulf of Mexico

U.S. bond investors nonetheless dialled back their bets of a rate hike in November and December following Powell's remarks, though Treasury yields traded near break-even by late morning. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was steady at 4.2314% and the two-year yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, rose to 5.0735%. "We've seen a back-off in ECB rate hike expectations. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Yahoo Finance's video channel that rates may be near or at a peak, "but certainly additional increments are possible." Tokyo consumer price data on Friday, which front-runs nationwide figures, showed inflation remained well above the Bank of Japan's target.

Persons: Toby Melville, Jerome Powell, Powell, David Sadkin, Dow Jones, Christine, Lagarde, Ben Laidler, Patrick Harker, Susan Collins, Shaun Osborne, Joseph Capurso, Kazuo Ueda, Jackson, Brent, Samuel Indyk, Kevin Buckland, Jacqueline Wong, Mark Potter, Chizu Nomiyama, Susan Fenton, Diane Craft, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters, Philadelphia Fed, CNBC, Boston, Yahoo, U.S, Scotiabank, Bank of, Bank of Japan, CBA, West Texas, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Asia, Tokyo

☆ Shares whipsaw as Fed weighs inflation risks, yields steady
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

If you're a bear, you heard him say we're going to be restrictive, and we might hike rates," said David Sadkin, president at Bel Air Investment Advisors. U.S. rates investors nonetheless dialled back their bets of a rate hike in November and December following Powell's remarks, though Treasury yields traded near break-even by late morning. "We've seen a back off in ECB rate hike expectations. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Yahoo Finance's video channel that rates may be near or at a peak, "but certainly additional increments are possible." Tokyo consumer price data on Friday, which front-runs nationwide figures, showed inflation remained well above the Bank of Japan's target.

Persons: Toby Melville, Jerome Powell, Powell, David Sadkin, Dow Jones, Christine, Lagarde, Ben Laidler, Patrick Harker, Susan Collins, Shaun Osborne, Joseph Capurso, Kazuo Ueda, Jackson, Brent, Samuel Indyk, Kevin Buckland, Jacqueline Wong, Mark Potter, Chizu Nomiyama, Susan Fenton Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Philadelphia Fed, CNBC, Boston, Yahoo, U.S, Scotiabank, Bank of, Bank of Japan, CBA, West Texas, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Asia, Tokyo

LONDON, Aug 25 (Reuters) - In an investment world trumpeting new-found ethical and sustainability guidelines, the seeming indifference of markets to democratic credentials still remains stark. There's little doubt that emerging market risks are many and rising for Western investors. What's more, there were as many emerging economies in its sample with relatively low bond spreads in the group with very low V&A scores as the group with very high V&A scores. If you removed those two wipeouts, screening just for V&A democratic values made much less difference to the bottom line. "Taking heed of these geopolitical risks could be the crucial difference between securing your returns or ending up with nothing."

Persons: Morgan's, Eamon Aghdasi, Mina Tomovska, Saker Nusseibeh, Nick Macfie Organizations: U.S ., Hermes, Financial, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, Egypt, Argentina, Ukraine, Taiwan, Boston, Belarus, Washington

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. Profit-taking weighed on shares across the board, with the MSCI All Country stock index (.MIWD00000PUS) down 0.36%. Profit-taking also took hold in Europe, where European stocks (.STOXX) gave up earlier gains to edge down 0.37%. EASING YIELDSGovernment bond yields eased, adding to a sense of relief across markets. In currency markets, the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six other major currencies , added 0.474%, and remains higher over the month.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow Jones, Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker, Harker, Robert Alster, Zhang Zihua, Koh Gui Qing, Tom Wilson, Julie Zhu, Kirsten Donovan, Matthew Lewis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nasdaq, Investors, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, CNBC, Profit, Asset Management, Nvidia, Beijing Yunyi Asset Management, Brent, . West Texas, Hong, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, United States, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Europe, Turkish, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Beijing, New York, London, Hong Kong

[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, August 23, 2023. U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Wednesday and shares of Nvidia jumped nearly 10% in trading after the bell, hitting an all-time high. EASING YIELDSGovernment bond yields eased, adding to a sense of relief across markets. Euro zone yields hit multi-week lows with Germany's 10-year yield 1.5 bps lower at 2.50%, having touched a 2-week low of 2.448%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) closed 1.5% higher, also lifted by Nvidia's bullish outlook.

Persons: Chipmakers, Jerome Powell, Robert Alster, Zhang Zihua, Tom Wilson, Julie Zhu, Toby Chopra, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Federal, Asset Management, Nvidia, Beijing Yunyi Asset Management, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Turkish, United States, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Beijing, London, Hong Kong

But it was U.S. Treasuries that hogged the limelight once again, with benchmark 10-year yields climbing to 4.366% - their highest level since 2007 and up almost 40 bps month-to-date - before losing some ground to 4.3141%. "There's a more cautiously optimistic mood across financial markets," said Fiona Cincotta, senior markets analyst at City Index in London. At the same time, however, inflation expectations have hardly budged - meaning "real" yields, which discount inflation expectations, have surged - a development likely to prompt investors to re-evaluate taking risks. The 10-year real rate breached 2% late last week. In Europe, benchmark bond yields in Germany, France and Italy eased after Monday's sharp climb , , .

Persons: BOJ's Ueda, Fiona Cincotta, Jackson, Padhraic Garvey, Vishnu Varathan, Kazuo Ueda, Karin Strohecker, Elizabeth Howcroft, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tom Westbrook, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Nvidia, Wall, Index, Federal Reserve, Treasury, ING . Markets, Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Mizuho Bank, NVIDIA, Wednesday, Tech, P, Brent, Benchmark, Dalian, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Europe, Asia, U.S, London, Americas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Singapore, France, Italy

☆ Morning Bid: World markets bounce at last
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. The onshore yuan steadied amid supportive action by China's state banks in the swaps market, and Chinese stocks (.CSI300) perked up from the year's lows. Overall, MSCI's all-country index (.MIWD00000PUS) was on course on Tuesday for its first back-to-back daily gains of August so far. There were background concerns about the impact on U.S. banks of this latest hit to bond prices and borrowing rates. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Xi Jinping, MSCI's, Jackson, Jerome Powell's, Moody's, Thomas Barkin, Austan Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman, Cyril Ramaphosa, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, P, Activision, Ubisoft Entertainment, Microsoft, Richmond Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Federal, Chicago Fed, China's, Reuters Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: New York City, U.S, Wyoming, Jackson, China, South Africa, Asia, Johannesburg, Pretoria

☆ Summer of angst as bond yields surge and global stocks wobble
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Meanwhile, U.S. real yields, which show what investors can expect to earn on government bonds after adjusting for inflation, stand near their highest point since 2009. Benchmark yields also guide other key economic rates, raising the cost of capital as they climb. In Europe, a key long-term gauge of market inflation expectations remains well above the European Central Bank's 2% inflation target . Reuters GraphicsHigher bond yields, falling equities and a rising dollar are all tightening financial conditions fast, adding to investor concerns. Property accounts for roughly a quarter of China's economy, which is already suffering from tepid domestic consumption, faltering factory activity, rising unemployment and weak overseas demand.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Hong, Yoruk Bahceli, Alun John, Dhara Ranasinghe, Lewis Krauskopf, Vincent Flasseur, Ira Iosebashvili, Mark Potter Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Japan’s Nikkei, Reuters, Treasury, Central, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, Britain, China's

Global shares were stuck around two-month lows and Wall Street indexes closed nearly flat and narrowly mixed. Yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasuries stepped back after flirting with 16-year highs earlier in the week. Investors expected the Fed may hold interest rates higher for longer as the U.S. economy continued to show strength. Attention now turns to the Fed and other top central banks' annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Investors will scrutinise a speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell next Friday for clues about the interest rate outlook.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jackson Hole WASHINGTON, Treasuries, Blake Emerson, Jerome Powell, Powell, Brent, Toby Chopra, Mark Potter, Nick Macfie, Diane Craft, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Jackson, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Global, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, JP Morgan Private Bank, Federal, Securities, U.S, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Jackson Hole, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Japan

☆ Bond rout keeps stocks under water, China woes give dollar a lift
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Crude oil was set to snap a seven-week winning streak as China's slowing economic growth clouded the picture for demand. Jason Da Silva, director, global investment strategy at Arbuthnot Latham, said stock markets were paying the price for bond yields soaring as economic data from the United States smash expectations, despite all the rate hikes so far. Euro zone government bond yields also eased on Friday as concerns about the global economy nudged investors into safe-haven government bonds and further signs emerged that euro zone inflation has peaked. The U.S. dollar recovered from an earlier dip and was standing tall near a two-month top at 103.42 against its major peers. Brent crude futures eased 0.5% to $83.67 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were off 0.4% at $79.99.

Persons: Toby Melville, bitcoin, Thursday's, Jason Da Silva, Arbuthnot Latham, Da Silva, Jerome Powell, HSI, China Evergrande, Toby Chopra, Mark Potter Organizations: London Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Companies, Jackson, Global, Nasdaq, ING, Treasury, Federal Reserve, CHINA SHADOW, HK, Japan's Nikkei, Bank of, U.S, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Canary Wharf, London, Britain, Japan, U.S, China, United States, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, CHINA, Asia, Pacific, Hong Kong, Beijing, Bank of Japan

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 24, 2023. Benchmark 10-year yields reached 4.312% in trading and tested October's 4.338%, before moving lower to 4.29%. Tighter credit conditions will eventually dampen economic activity and markets are choppy from the uncertainty," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial. Wall Street was mixed in the first half of the trading day before accelerating losses as the session ended. Brent crude was up over 1% earlier in the day before settling up 0.35% at $83.74 a barrel.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Yen, Jeffrey Roach, Bill Adams, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Alun John, Anisha, Sonali Paul, Angus MacSwan, Chizu Nomiyama, Nick Macfie, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, LPL Financial, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, U.S . Labor Department, Comerica Bank, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, CHINA, China, China's, Singapore, London, Bengaluru

Benchmark 10-year yields reached 4.312%, testing October's 4.338%, a break past which would be its highest since 2007. "What's interesting is usually when you have volatility around rates that's the market trying to price in a higher fed funds rate. "The impact of higher yields is standard: a dollar that is well supported and equities under pressure," he added. MSCI's world index (.MIWD00000PUS) was down 0.1% on Thursday, having dropped to its lowest level since July 6 early in the session. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) slid to its lowest since late November in early trading Thursday.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Samy Chaar, der Linde, Van der Linde, Shunichi Suzuki, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Alun John, Anisha, Sonali Paul, Angus MacSwan Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Lombard, Atlanta Federal, Nasdaq, Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, HSBC, Reuters Global Markets, Finance, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, SINGAPORE, CHINA, China's, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong, China, Singapore, London, Bengaluru

☆ Stocks fall, yields rise after hotter than expected inflation reading
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-11 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. producer price index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.3% in July, according to the Labor Department. And in the 12 months through July, the PPI rose 0.8% against estimates for a 0.7% advance. On Thursday, Wall Street's main indexes had finished flat, giving up most early gains on milder-than-feared consumer price inflation data. In currencies, the dollar index rose 0.107%, with the euro down 0.18% to $1.0959. On the U.S. Treasuries side, yields rose after the hotter than expected PPI.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Paul Christopher, Christopher, Mary Daly, Sterling, Brent, Sinéad Carew, Elizabeth Howcroft, John Stonestreet, Susan Fenton Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Reserve, Labor Department, PPI, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Britain, International Energy Agency, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wells Fargo, St Louis, Asia, Pacific, Japan, London

Asian stocks fell to a one-month low and European indexes were in the red, with the STOXX 600 down 0.8% at 1125 GMT (.STOXX). "We’re still getting a mixed message from the inflation numbers," said Ben Laidler, global markets strategist at eToro. The pound was up 0.4% at $1.2725 , after GDP data showed Britain eked out some unexpected growth in the second quarter, helped by a strong June performance. But it remains the only large advanced economy that has not yet regained its pre-COVID late-2019 level, data showed on Friday. Investors will be watching for UK inflation data next Wednesday.

Persons: DAX, Mary Daly, We’re, Ben Laidler, eToro's Laidler, Brent, Elizabeth Howcroft, John Stonestreet, Susan Fenton Organizations: Credit Suisse, Wall, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Investors, Nasdaq, HK, Britain, West Texas, International Energy Agency, Thomson Locations: Silicon, China, Australia, Japan

☆ Shares, dollar gains after moderate US CPI data
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The consumer price index (CPI) gained 0.2% last month, the Labor Department said, lifting the annualized rate to 3.2% from 3% in June. The pace of core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 4.7% in July from 4.8% the prior month. But investors remained cautious as another CPI report and jobs data await Fed policymakers before their next meeting in September. MSCI's gauge of stock performance across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.38%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) rose 0.79%. Gold prices ticked up after the U.S. inflation data on speculation the Fed is at the end of its rate hike cycle.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Russell Price, Price, Brad Bechtel, Brad Conger, Callaghan, Brent, Herbert Lash, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Edwina Gibbs, Sam Holmes, Susan Fenton, Alexandra Hudson, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Global, Labor Department, Reuters, Fed, Ameriprise, FX, Jefferies, Co, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, U.S, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Troy , Michigan, Conshohocken , Pennsylvania, CHINA, China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, London

☆ European stocks outperform as Italy soothes bank tax nerves
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Naomi Rovnick | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] Signage for the London Stock Exchange Group is seen outside of offices in Canary Wharf in London, Britain, August 3, 2023. MSCI's broad index of global shares (.MIWD00000PUS) was 0.2% higher in European afternoon trade. Europe's regional Stoxx 600 (.STOXX) share index rose 0.9%, with bank stocks (.SX7P) around 1.6% higher. Italy's FTSE MIB share index gained 1.8%. "The burden-sharing of the costs and benefits from higher rates has a habit of becoming a political issue," Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said.

Persons: Toby Melville, Jim Reid, China's, Naomi Rovnick, Stella Qiu, Sydney, Ellen Zhang, Christina Fincher, David Evans Organizations: London Stock Exchange, REUTERS, China CPI, Wall Street, Deutsche Bank, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Moody's, U.S . National Federation of Independent, Wednesday, U.S . Treasury, BCA, Reserve, Brent, U.S . West Texas, Thomson Locations: Canary Wharf, London, Britain, China, Italy, Thursday's U.S, U.S, Saudi Arabia, Beijing

[1/3] Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 187,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report on Friday, slightly below expectations of 200,000 jobs. U.S. Treasury yields dropped after jobs data on Friday showed the U.S. economy added fewer jobs than expected in July, but investors hesitated to rule out further monetary tightening. Oil prices headed for a sixth straight weekly gain, driven by the prospect of reduced supply from Saudi Arabia and Russia. U.S. crude rose 1.4% to $82.69 per barrel and Brent was at $86.10, up 1.13% on the day.

Persons: Mike Segar, Rick Rieder, Randy Frederick, Charles Schwab, Frederick, Sterling, Fitch, Brent, Lawrence Delevingne, Amanda Cooper, Elizabeth Howcroft, Ankur Banerjee, Sruthi Shankar, Sharon Singleton, Nick Macfie, Diane Craft Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apple, Treasury, U.S ., Labor Department, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, FTSE, U.S . Federal, Bank of England, U.S . Treasury, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Austin , Texas, United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Boston, London

[1/2] The London Stock Exchange Group offices are seen in the City of London, Britain, December 29, 2017. Investor attention will be squarely on the July U.S. non-farm payrolls report, with a Reuters survey of 80 economists expecting payrolls to have increased by 200,000 last month, after rising 209,000 in June. "Today’s U.S. payrolls data is likely to continue to showcase the resilience of the U.S. economy," Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets, said in a note. The dollar meanwhile rose 0.1% against a basket of major currencies , heading for its third weekly gain in a row. Oil prices headed for a sixth straight weekly gain, driven up by the prospect of reduced supply from Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Persons: Toby Melville, payrolls, Michael Hewson, Germany's DAX, Francesco Sandrini, Fitch, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Kirsten Donovan, Alexander Smith Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Treasury, U.S . Federal, CMC Markets, FTSE, Nasdaq, Apple, Bank of England, U.S ., U.S . Treasury, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, U.S, United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Singapore

LONDON, Aug 2 (Reuters) - The economic picture may not have to change much for the surprise element to disappear for markets - underlining the significance of this summer's sometimes grudging admissions of investment strategy missteps. SURPRISE, SURPRISEExceptional U.S. economic surprisesU.S. surprise gaps the widest in decades, excluding pandemicAlong with market moves themselves and skewed positioning monitors, the simplest take on the unpreparedness of investors can be seen in economic surprise indices. The global surprise index is close to zero, suggesting expectations for the world economy in aggregate are actually coming in on cue. And if that happens, it may just suck the oxygen from the stellar equity outperformance over bonds to date. If true, markets may find the going harder without that element of surprise.

Persons: What's, Schroders, Johanna Kyrklund, hasn't, Kyrklund, Chris Iggo, Mike Dolan Organizations: Federal, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, U.S, Graphics, AXA IM Investment, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Europe, Japan, China, U.S

European stocks (.STOXX) fell 0.2%, stepping back from a 2% gain in July, its second month of gains. UK stocks (.FTSE) edged up 0.1%, however, with HSBC (HSBA.L) climbing 2.6% after announcing a $2 billion share buyback and raising its key profitability target. Oil prices traded near a three-month high hit on Monday amid signs of tightening global supply. Also buoying prices were producers cutting output and demand in the United States, the world's biggest fuel consumer, remaining resilient. The U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against six major peers - rose as high as 102.07 for the first time since July 10.

Persons: Sandrine Perret, Hong, HSI, Alec Jin, Tom Wilson, Kevin Buckland, Ankur Banerjee, Lincoln, Bernadette Baum Organizations: HSBC, LONDON, . Federal, Fed, Brent, Energy, BP, Bank of, Japan's Nikkei, Reserve Bank of Australia, U.S, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Unigestion, United States, London, Asia, Tokyo

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 26, 2023. European shares gained modestly after euro zone inflation fell further in July seeing that most measures of underlying price growth also eased. "Data out this week should remain superficially consistent with the 'soft landing' narrative," Citi market strategists wrote in a note. Japanese 10-year yields surged to a nine-year high up to 0.6% on Monday, and toward the new cap of 1.0%. U.S. crude rose 1.63% to $81.89 per barrel and Brent was at $85.56, up 0.67% on the day.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Florian Ielpo, Paul Christopher, Christopher, Austan Goolsbee, Sterling, Brent, Lawrence Delevingne, Nell Mackenzie, Nick Macfie, Will Dunham, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple Inc, Caterpillar Inc, Starbucks Corp, Devices, Markets, European Central Bank, Lombard, U.S, Citi, Intel, Lam Research, Wells Fargo Investment, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Bank of England, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wells Fargo, Boston, London

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