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☆ Dow plunges 600 points as Fed officials say more rate hikes are needed to keep pulling inflation down
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks tumbled after hawkish talk on rates from two Federal Reserve officials. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester each see the need for rates to rise to 5% or beyond. The Dow plunged 600 points, and the S&P 500 ended lower for a second straight day. The S&P 500 finished in the red for a second straight day, and none of its 11 sectors moved higher. Stocks may finish 2023 with a positive return, with the S&P 500 potentially landing at 4,275, said Hainlin.

A reading from the Commerce Department showed retail sales fell 1.1% in December against expectations of a 0.8% drop, while a separate report showed producer prices declined more than expected in December. Traders' bets of a 25-basis point rate hike rose after the data, while U.S. 10-year Treasury yields fell to a four-month low. Analysts now expect year-over-year earnings from S&P 500 companies to decline 2.6% for the quarter, according to Refinitiv data, compared with a 1.6% decline in the beginning of 2023. Among major S&P 500 sectors, consumer discretionary stocks (.SPLRCD) were up 1%, leading gains. U.S. stock markets have started 2023 on a strong footing on hopes that a moderation in inflationary pressures could give the Fed cover to dial down the size of its interest rate hikes.

☆ Corporate profit reports in the week ahead could show whether there's an 'earnings recession'
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Investors in the week ahead will focus on how much inflation and the slowing economy have chiseled away at corporate profits, as companies including Goldman Sachs , Netflix and Procter & Gamble report earnings. "This is going to be the start of the clock ticking on an earnings recession," said Amanda Agati, chief investment officer of PNC Asset Management Group. Economic recession talk heats up "There's never been a recession without an earnings recession since World War II," Agati said. Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Financial, said this coming earnings week could be an important step towards assessing the health of corporate balance sheets. Week ahead calendar Monday Martin Luther King Jr. Day Markets closed Tuesday Earnings: Goldman Sachs , Morgan Stanley , Citizens Financial, United Airlines, Interactive Brokers 8:30 a.m.

☆ Stocks rise, dollar stumbles after U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 7, 2022. U.S consumer prices fell in December for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years as prices fell for gasoline and other goods, suggesting inflation was on a sustained downward trend. Many market participants are looking for signs of weakness in the labor market as a signal of slowing inflation. On Wall Street, equities were choppy after the data, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 0.8% and then rebounding. Crude prices rose in the wake of the data, getting an additional boost from optimism over China's emergence from its COVID-19 restrictions creating additional demand.

☆ Wall St ends up as data suggests inflation may be on downward trend
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Friday brings results from a number of big U.S. banks, kicking off the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season for S&P 500 companies. Microsoft (MSFT.O) shares rose 1.2%, providing the biggest boost to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, while energy shares also were higher along with oil prices. The S&P 500 is now up 3.7% for the year so far. Also, overall S&P 500 earnings are expected to have declined year-over-year in the fourth quarter, according to IBES data from Refinitiv, which would be the first quarterly U.S. earnings decline since 2020. The S&P 500 posted 14 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 96 new highs and 16 new lows.

☆ Wall St gains; data suggests inflation may be on downward trend
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Labor Department's report showed U.S. consumer prices grew 6.5% on an annual basis in December, in line with expectations. Microsoft (MSFT.O) shares were providing the biggest boost to the S&P 500, energy shares also were higher along with oil prices. Friday brings results from a number of big U.S. banks, kicking off the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season for S&P 500 companies. Overall S&P 500 earnings are expected to have declined year-over-year in the fourth quarter, according to IBES data from Refinitiv, which would be the first quarterly U.S. earnings decline since 2020. The S&P 500 posted 14 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 80 new highs and 16 new lows.

☆ Fed policymakers signal rate-hike slowdown coming, but no easing
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Ann Saphir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

"It is encouraging that we got some information today that went in the right direction," St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said at an event organized by the Wisconsin Bankers Association. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration 1 2'STEER MORE DELIBERATELY'Speaking earlier on Thursday to a business group in Pennsylvania, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he believes quarter-percentage-point rate hikes are indeed now appropriate. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said on Thursday that inflation over the last three months has gone in the "right direction" and allows the Fed to "steer more deliberately" in its battle against price pressures. The Fed ultimately pushed borrowing costs, and the U.S. unemployment rate, into double-digit territory during that period before stopping the upward spiraling of prices. Fed policymakers say they do not expect the unemployment rate, currently 3.5%, to rise much more than a percentage point in the course of the current inflation fight.

☆ Stocks climb, dollar falls after U.S. inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Still, a separate reading on the labor market showed weekly initial jobless claims came in at 205,000, below expectations of 215,000. Many market participants are looking for signs of weakness in the labor market as a key sign of slowing inflation. On Wall Street, equities were choppy after the data, with the S&P 500 falling as much as 0.8% before rebounding. Richmond Federal Reserve president Tom Barkin echoed the sentiment about the data and said it allowed the Fed to "steer more deliberately". Crude prices rose in the wake of the data, getting an additional boost from optimism over China's emergence from its COVID-19 restrictions creating additional demand.

☆ Fed's Bullard says latest inflation data step in right direction
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"There's probably too much optimism inflation is going to easily come back to 2%. That is not the history of inflation," Bullard said, noting that he expects the path down to be bumpy. "We are really moving into an era of higher nominal interest rates for quite a while going forward as we try to continue to put downward pressure." The Fed's main policy rate currently sits in a target range of 4.25% to 4.50% and central bank policymakers have already made clear they hope to stop raising rates this spring. Reporting by Lindsay Dunsmuir; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Morning Bid: Disinflation elation
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Whether the Federal Reserve policymakers will publicly chime with the disinflation narrative or not, many acknowledge their policy stance is now 'data dependent' from here. And unless disavowed of it by hard evidence, markets already assume the inflation battle is as good as won. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields were slightly lower. China's inflation rate crept back up last month too but it remains below 2% and annual producer price inflation is still in negative territory. Although UK bond yields and sterling skidded lower on Wednesday in mix of recession concerns and energy price disinflation hopes, there was better news on the retail front today.

☆ Important inflation data and big bank earnings could create volatility for markets in week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Other speakers include Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Monday. On Thursday, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and St. Louis Fed President Bullard all speak at separate events. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Boston Fed President Susan Collins have appearances Friday. The most important inflation report in the week ahead is the consumer price index, released Thursday. Import prices 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari 10:20 a.m. Philadelphia Fed's Harker 9:00 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins

☆ Several factors could make 2023 a disinflationary year, says Fed's Bullard
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSeveral factors could make 2023 a disinflationary year, says Fed's BullardCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'The Exchange' to report on St. Louis Fed President James Bullard's comments about rates in 2023.

☆ U.S. Treasury yields: investors mull over Fed rate policy outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was up by around one basis point to 3.72% at 4:20 a.m. The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at around 4.3992% after rising by just over one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Thursday as investors assessed expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy plans and awaited central bank speaker comments. At its December meeting, the Fed announced a 50 basis point rate hike, which was a slight decrease from the 75 basis point increases implemented at each of its previous four meetings. A series of Fed speakers are due to make remarks as the week continues, with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expected to speak on Thursday.

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Fed officials from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly to St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, often at opposite ends of recent policy debates, have both discussed rates possibly rising above 5% next year. If there is concern about crossing that line, Fed officials have not voiced it. With the expected half-point increase at the next meeting, the policy rate will end the year in a range between 4.25% and 4.5%. The fed funds rate was seen ending 2023 at 4.6%. The upcoming projections will show that final destination perhaps coming into view, and give a better assessment of the possible cost as well.

But neither incoming hard economic numbers nor many senior policymakers have fully bought into the recession idea just yet. But not all think a soft landing is out of the question. JP Morgan's Bruce Kasman said his "baseline" is the lagged effect of Fed tightening does eventually drag the U.S. economy into recession late next year. But he also said it was a "mistake to rule out a soft landing scenario." by Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD; Editing by Lisa ShumakerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

The war on inflation is far from won, with the Fed's preferred measure of price increases still running at roughly three times the central bank's 2% target. That's the biggest ramp-up in U.S. rates over a nine-month period since Volcker battled even higher inflation in the early 1980s. Powell, who this year marked a decade since his appointment as a Fed governor and whose second term as Fed chief extends to 2026, has overseen some divided decisions. In a best-case scenario, inflation continues to fall and Fed officials, whether hawk or dove, align around a stopping point for the policy rate that doesn't lead to a sharp rise in unemployment. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Additional reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar heads for biggest monthly loss since 2010 ahead of Powell speech
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The dollar eased from a one-week high on Wednesday ahead of a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while optimism over a possible loosening in China's COVID restrictions set it on course for its biggest monthly loss since late 2010. But after almost two years of near-relentless acceleration in inflation, markets could welcome any sign that the worst may be over. European assets got a lift on Tuesday after inflation in Spain and a number of major German states cooled. It has lost around 4.3% in November, marking its worst monthly performance since September 2010 , according to Refinitiv data. The offshore yuan gained ground against the dollar, which fell 1% to 7.0802.

☆ Dollar slips from one-week high on China hopes as Powell speech looms
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The risk-sensitive New Zealand and Aussie dollars rose, while the offshore Chinese yuan hovered near a one-week peak. "But there's a back and forth between dollar selling and dollar strength, because earlier in the week, all we could talk about was hawkish Fedspeak," he added. The euro ticked up 0.11% to $1.0339, lifting from a one-week low reached earlier on Wednesday at $1.0319. The New Zealand dollar strengthened 0.29% to $0.6218 while the Aussie adding 0.1% to $0.66935. "Expectations for an end to China's zero‑covid policy in coming months, combined with more targeted restrictions in the meantime, can provide support to CNH, AUD and NZD."

☆ Dollar near one-week high as traders prepare for Powell, payrolls tests
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

China's offshore yuan traded near a one-week high as traders returned to wagering on a reopening from strangling COVID-19 curbs. The dollar slipped 0.07% to 138.60 yen , as the pair continued to consolidate following a bounce from a three-month low of 137.50 on Monday. The euro ticked up 0.15% to $1.03435, lifting from a one-week low reached earlier on Wednesday at $1.0319. The Aussie rose 0.11% to $0.66945, consolidating in the middle of its range of the past couple of weeks. Optimism about a China reopening was balanced against an easing in Australian inflation, reducing the pressure for Reserve Bank rate hikes, and weak Chinese purchasing manager surveys.

☆ Markets should brace for a period of central bank-induced turmoil before the Fed dials back on rate hikes, and stocks could soon retest recent lows, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks could be in for another bout of volatility before the Fed pivots from aggressive rate hikes, JPMorgan warned. That's because the Fed and other central banks could inject more volatility before backing down from raising rates. Stocks could retest recent lows in the first quarter of 2023, strategists predicted. Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel said the odds of a recession were "virtually 100%" if the Fed continued hiking rates into 2023. That would take the fed funds rate to a range of 4.25%-4.5%.

☆ Dollar near one-week high as traders prepare for Powell speech, payrolls tests
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

China's offshore yuan traded near a one-week high as traders returned to wagering on a reopening from strangling Covid-19 curbs. The dollar slipped 0.07% to 138.60 yen , as the pair continued to consolidate following a bounce from a three-month low of 137.50 on Monday. The euro ticked up 0.15% to $1.03435, lifting from a one-week low reached earlier on Wednesday at $1.0319. The Aussie rose 0.11% to $0.66945, consolidating in the middle of its range of the past couple of weeks. Optimism about a China reopening was balanced against an easing in Australian inflation, reducing the pressure for Reserve Bank rate hikes, and weak Chinese purchasing manager surveys.

The euro rose ahead of inflation data due on Wednesday. The Aussie , often used as a liquid proxy for the yuan, rose 1.2% to $0.6734. EURO ZONE INFLATIONThe euro was up 0.4% at $1.0380, not far from a five-month peak of $1.0497 hit on Monday. Flash euro zone inflation figures for November are due on Wednesday, with economists polled by Reuters expecting inflation to come in at 10.4% year-on-year. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said the Fed needed to raise interest rates quite a bit further, while New York Fed President John Williams and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin echoed similar views.

☆ Dollar holds firm as China's COVID-related worries weigh
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Harish Sridharan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The euro , which surged to a five-month peak of $1.0497 overnight, later reversed those gains following a rebound in the U.S. dollar. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index was marginally lower by 0.1% at 106.50, after rising 0.5% overnight. The greenback had extended gains after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said overnight that the Fed needs to raise interest rates quite a bit further. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to hike rates by an additional 50 basis points when it meets on Dec. 13-14. The offshore yuan reversed some of its losses in the previous session and was about 0.4% higher at 7.2136 per dollar.

☆ Dollar rebounds on Fed expectations, Aussie drops
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. The dollar index has fallen to 106.65 from a 20-year high of 114.78 on Sept. 28 on expectations that its rally may have been over stretched and as the Fed looks to slow its pace of rate increases. The greenback was also likely supported after the dollar index reached the 200-day moving average at 105.369. The dollar had dipped earlier on Monday despite other safe-haven currencies the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc gaining on concerns about China. The risk sensitive Aussie dollar , which is strongly tied to Chinese growth, was the worst performing major currency, falling 1.61% to $0.6649.

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