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☆ Bank fears will likely lead to even more market volatility in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Market turbulence could reign supreme once again in the week ahead, as investors worry about the potential for more trouble rippling through the banking system. The broader market was initially under pressure Friday as investors became jittery about Deutsche Bank . "The market is saying: 'You, the Fed, do not appreciate the slowdown that is going to hit us,'" Chandler said. "The market is going to do a lot better and it held onto its gains despite all the things that rocked the market. He added that market concern about banks has risen, and there is concern credit tightening will hurt the economy.

☆ Stocks slide as investors worry about more rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks tumbled Thursday morning after the US government’s Producer Price Index report showed that prices at the wholesale level rose faster than expected in January. The unwelcome inflation news comes just two days after the Consumer Price Index figures showed that retail prices continue to come in above forecasts. Investors also were unnerved by comments from Cleveland Federal Reserve president Loretta Mester about inflation and the economy. St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, another regional bank president who does not have a vote on the FOMC this year, is giving a speech this afternoon. Streaming media device maker Roku (ROKU) also soared following strong earnings.

☆ Morning Bid: Growth trumps rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

While there were some questions about seasonal adjustments in the data, economists were impressed that sales growth was pretty broad based and have scrambled to re-crunch first quarter U.S. output forecasts as a result. There may be a more mixed picture from Thursday's data slate on producer prices, housing starts and weekly jobless claims. Even though rates futures and Treasury yields ticked back a bit today, pricing now has Fed policy rates moving as high as 5.25% and staying above 5% all year. And while full-year earnings growth estimates for S&P500 companies have sunk to zero, consensus forecasts are now pencilling in a rebound of almost 12% next year. Uncertainty about the pace of growth and annual tax receipts in April makes it difficult for government officials to predict the exact "X-date", it said.

☆ Brainard's move to the White House leaves a big gap for Biden to fill at the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

In her more than eight years as a Federal Reserve official, Lael Brainard was an influential voice, particularly for the side that favored keeping monetary policy loose and interest rates low. "Brainard's departure from the Fed leaves a dove-sized hole in its monetary policy," Beacon Policy Advisors wrote in its daily newsletter Wednesday. Indeed, Brainard's influence only accelerated the longer she served as a Fed governor. Her subsequent appointment in 2022 as vice chair solidified her influence, installing her as part of the "troika" of policy-directing power that includes current Chairman Jerome Powell and New York Fed President John Williams. Some candidates outside the Fed ranks, according to Guha, include Karen Dynan, Jason Furman, Janice Eberly and Christina Romer, all of whom served under former President Barack Obama (and his vice president, Biden).

☆ Factbox: Some potential successors to Brainard at the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Meanwhile, analysts and Fed observers are already swapping notes on potential replacements for Brainard at the Fed from a bench of economists aligned with Biden's Democrats, who control the U.S. Senate. MARY DALYDaly is president of the San Francisco Fed, ascending to that position in 2018 after 22 years at the regional Fed bank, including a stint as its director of research. Furman has been a prominent, Twitter-savvy commentator on macroeconomic and Fed policy. He has a PhD from the University of Virginia and served as a Fed economist for a little over a year in the mid-1990s. With a PhD from Stanford University, he's held staff positions at the Fed board and the San Francisco Fed, where he also served as president before moving to the New York Fed role in 2018.

☆ Swedish crown gains on c.bank forecast for more hikes, softer dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, Feb 9 (Reuters) - The Swedish crown rallied on Thursday after the country's central bank raised interest rates and forecast further tightening, while the dollar weakened against most other currencies alongside positive sentiment across markets. The dollar was last down 1.4% against the crown at 10.45 crowns and the euro was down 1.16% at 11.21, after the Riksbank raised its interest rate by 50 basis points to 3%, and forecast more increases in the spring. The Swedish currency has been under pressure, having hit its weakest since 2009 against the euro earlier this week as markets bet the central bank will raise rates less aggressively than the European Central Bank due to domestic economic conditions. Markets are also digesting a series of remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers about the U.S. interest rate plans after Friday's stronger-than-expected jobs data and ahead of next week's closely watched inflation numbers. Williams's comments followed Chair Jerome Powell's sticking by his interest rate outlook on Tuesday, when he reiterated that a process of "disinflation" was under way.

Meanwhile, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rallied against a backdrop of gains for U.S. equity futures and a more hawkish Reserve Bank. Investors will closely watch consumer price inflation data on Tuesday for additional clues on the policy outlook. Market pricing anticipates the Fed funds rate peaking just above 5.1% by July then falling by the end of the year to 4.8%. "From where I stand today we need further, significant rate hikes," German central bank chief Joachim Nagel told the newspaper Boersen-Zeitung on Tuesday. His colleague Isabel Schnabel said it is not yet clear that the ECB rate hikes so far would bring inflation back to 2%.

☆ Asian shares track Wall Street lower amid chorus of Fed speakers
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Governor Christopher Waller said the battle to reach the Fed's 2% inflation target "might be a long fight". But Governor Lisa Cook said the big job gains in January with moderating wage growth increased hopes of a "soft landing". The bond market rallied a little after being caught wrongfooted by the January blockbuster U.S. jobs report, forcing many to reposition for a higher peak in the Fed funds rate. The two-year Treasury yield , which rises with traders' expectations of higher Fed fund rates, eased 2 basis points to 4.4375% on Thursday, while the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes slid 5 basis points to 3.6012%. In the oil market, Brent crude futures eased 0.2% to $84.90 while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also settled 0.1% lower at $78.36.

☆ Indian shares muted on Fed rate-hike concerns; Adani stocks tumble
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Indian shares struggled for direction on Thursday, on concerns over the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate-hike trajectory, while a drop in Adani Group company stocks also dampened sentiment. Twenty-six of the Nifty 50 constituents declined, with Adani Enterprises (ADEL.NS) and Adani Ports (APSE.NS) falling 7.9% and 3.5%, respectively. Index provider MSCI said on Thursday it had determined that some Adani securities should no longer be designated as free float. read moreSeveral institutional investors and funds allocate as per the MSCI index and consider it a benchmark. If the weightage of Adani stocks gets reduced in the index following a review, it would lead to outflows and likely result in a slide in the group's stock, two analysts said.

MUMBAI, Feb 9 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to decline against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, weighed by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials and higher oil prices. The non-deliverable forwards indicated the rupee would open around 82.60-82.62 per dollar, compared with the 82.4925 closing in the previous session. Fed officials on Wednesday said more interest rate rises are on the cards in the central bank's efforts to bring down inflation. Moving to a rate of between 5.00% and 5.25% "seems a very reasonable view," New York Fed President John Williams said. Fed fund futures are pricing in rate cuts of about 30 to 35 basis points after peaking at around 5.12% in July.

☆ Dollar flat after Fed official comments; focus on CPI data next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. dollar steadied just below recent peaks on Wednesday, as investors waited to hear from the Federal Reserve and pondered whether weak U.S. data may slow the pace of rate hikes. Williams' comments followed Chair Jerome Powell's sticking by his interest rate outlook on Tuesday, when he reiterated that a process of "disinflation" was underway. The Japanese yen weakened 0.11% to 131.54 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2064, down 0.06% on the day. Market pricing anticipates the Fed funds rate peaking just above 5.1% by July then falling by the end of the year to 4.8%. Investor focus will now switch to the U.S. inflation data due next week on Tuesday.

☆ Premarket stocks: Welcome to the 'rolling recession' economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Yet US manufacturing has likely already contracted into a recession, housing sales have plummeted, tech layoffs keep coming and corporate earnings growth is souring. “We continue to think the economy will suffer from rolling recessions, evidenced by the fact that corporate earnings growth is now entering its downturn,” wrote Sonders in a note on Wednesday. For five straight weeks, the bank’s clients have been big buyers of individual stocks and sellers of ETFs, she wrote. Disney revenue in the quarter rose 8% to $23.5 billion, edging past estimates of $23.4 billion from analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. The company reported revenue of $8.6 billion for the quarter, beating Wall Street’s estimates and marking a 49% increase from the prior year.

☆ Wall Street falls on rate hike worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Johann M Cherian | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Money market participants are now betting the U.S. central bank's benchmark rate to rise above 5% in May before peaking to 5.18% by July, levels that officials have backed vociferously. Of all the S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly earnings, 69% of them have beaten expectations, according to Refinitiv. Uber Technologies Inc (UBER.N) rose 0.7% on upbeat earnings expectations for the year. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 1.86-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a 2.05-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded eight new 52-week highs and two new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 56 new highs and 18 new lows.

☆ Morning Bid: Powell confesses 'This time it's different'
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Any fear of a radical Fed rethink on the back of the jobs numbers seemed wide of the mark. "This cycle is different from other cycles...it has just confounded all sorts of attempts to predict," Powell admitted. And many think last week's jobs report should similarly be treated with care. They included a minimum tax for billionaires and a quadrupling of the tax on corporate stock buybacks. Brands, Eaton Corp, etcUS terminal rateReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, Editing by Raissa Kasolowsky <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

☆ Earnings and Fed Chair Powell will again drive markets in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

With few economic releases and the earnings season starting to wind down, an appearance by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Tuesday could be among the newsiest events for markets in the week ahead. The Fed chair is speaking at the Economic Club of Washington D.C. at midday Tuesday. If he wanted to walk back anything, he could have done it then," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley. Economists said Friday's surprisingly strong jobs report should encourage the Fed to push forward with planned rate hikes. Earnings, earnings, earnings But there continues to be earnings news.

Reuters GraphicsThe U.S. central bank is already adjusting to one unanticipated set of changes - an outbreak of inflation coupled with stalled growth in the U.S. labor force. "You have to identify the regime change ... Then you have to understand the transition dynamics ... and have a clear vision and insight into all of those ... "Markets calibrated to ... Chinese growth and low interest rates may prove fragile." Like recessions, which are typically identified only well after they have started, other economic turning points aren't always apparent in the moment. But as evidence of that accumulated following the 2007-2009 recession, it was only embodied into Fed policy in 2020 under a new approach that leaned against premature interest rate increases.

☆ The December jobs report sent mixed signals. Here's what it means for markets.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The December jobs report is another data point that signals the Fed has more work to do to cool the economy. "A labor market this strong means an imminent recession is highly improbable," Indeed Hiring Lab economist Nick Bunker wrote in a note. While stocks usually sell off after these strong reports, fearing the worst from the Fed, Friday saw a strong rally. History suggests there are very strong odds the stock market gains 20% this year after last year's bludgeoning. Tesla stock has tumbled to multiyear lows.

☆ Fed Official Says Inflation Remains Too High
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Gabriel T. Rubin | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The Federal Reserve’s Lisa Cook is wary of placing too much faith in newish economic data. NEW ORLEANS—Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook noted recent signs that inflation has cooled, but said it has to fall much more to reach acceptable levels. “Inflation remains far too high despite some encouraging signs lately, and is therefore of great concern,” Ms. Cook said in remarks prepared for delivery Friday at the Allied Social Science Associations conference here.

☆ Core services inflation remains stubbornly high, says Fed's Lisa Cook.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCore services inflation remains stubbornly high, says Fed's Lisa Cook. CNBC's Steve Leisman reports on the latest comments from Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook.

Nearly 165 million people were either in jobs or looking for them last month, a record high that showed a long-hoped-for improvement in labor supply. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe jobs report is "the embodiment of the soft landing narrative - this idea that can you have a strong labor market with slowing wage growth," said Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Global Advisors. Ideally, she said, that should allow the Fed to slow and soon pause its interest rate hikes. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsTraders took the report as evidence the Fed's work is near to being done. Still, she said, "inflation remains far too high, despite some encouraging signs lately, and is therefore of great concern."

☆ Jobs report hangs over markets in first week of new year
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The first week of the new year will be a busy one with December's jobs report looming Friday, and many investors may be looking for ways to fix up their portfolios after 2022's battering. What to watch Friday's jobs report is one of two big events on the market calendar in the coming week. The jobs report is very important because it is the final employment report the Fed will consider before its next meeting, Feb. 1. For all years since 1945, the S & P 500 has averaged an 8.6% gain and was up 70% of the time. The worst major S & P industry sector of 2022 was communications services, down 40.4% as of Thursday's close.

☆ Economist Austan Goolsbee named next Chicago Fed president
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Economist Austan Goolsbee will take over as president of the Chicago Federal Reserve early next year as the central bank weighs critical policy moves ahead, according to an announcement Thursday. "Austan is an exceptional choice to be the next president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Goolsbee comes to the Chicago Fed at a sensitive time for the central bank. A Chicago Fed release announcing the appointment said the new district president is "a leading empirical economist" whose research spans a wide variety of topics. Goolsbee called the Chicago Fed "one of the crown jewels" of the central bank system.

☆ Fed's Cook says time nearing to hike rates in smaller steps
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"Given the tightening already in the pipeline, I am mindful that monetary policy works with long lags," she said. Cook was speaking two weeks before the Fed is due to release its next policy statement. The central bank has moved its short-term target rate up swiftly this year, from the near-zero level in March to the current 3.75%-4.00% range. But Fed officials have said in recent comments and other communications that, as they near a final destination for rate rises, it would be a good idea to slow down. Cook said the current pace of wage gains is above levels consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target.

☆ Morning Bid: Uneasy Chair
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan. While inflation looks past its peak, labour markets remain super tight and Powell speaks before another crucial nationwide employment report on Friday. Futures market expectations for peak Fed rates next May ticked back above 5% ahead of the speech, with about 35 basis points of rate cuts from there still priced by yearend. China and Hong Kong shares extended gains on Wednesday as market participants cheered an easing of COVID-19 measures in Guangzhou city. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Fed Governor Lisa Cook expects ongoing increases in the target range
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Governor Lisa Cook expects ongoing increases in the target rangeCNBC's Steve Liesman joins the 'Halftime Report' to discuss comments made by Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, highlighting her points about the pace of rate hikes and the duration of monetary tightening.

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