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☆ Banks’ profit picnic will attract ant invasion
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

JPMorgan (JPM.N), Bank of America (BAC.N), Wells Fargo (WFC.N) and Citigroup (C.N) all report fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. The good news is that for the year ahead, rising interest rates twinned with growing loan books should more than make up for sliding investment banking fees. The CFPB squeezed a $3.7 billion settlement from serial miscreant Wells Fargo in December for wrongly levying charges on customers. CONTEXT NEWSJPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo will report fourth-quarter 2022 earnings on Jan. 13. The CFPB said that Wells Fargo will also allocate over $2 billion in redress to customers.

☆ Sunken oil tanker merger leaves CEO adrift
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Jan 10 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Promising to lock his main shareholder in a “gilded prison” may not have been the best way to win support for a controversial merger. So now Euronav (EUAV.BR) Chief Executive Hugo De Stoop will not head the $6 billion oil tanker empire that would have resulted from a deal with rival Frontline (FRO.OL). The slightly smaller suitor on Monday called off an all-share deal that dated back to last April, when the parties agreed to merge. Investors’ apparent surprise came even though Euronav’s main shareholder, family-controlled Compagnie Maritime Belge, increased its stake to more than 25%, with the apparent goal of crippling the deal. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Stellantis keeps feet on ground in air taxi punt
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Jan 5 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Pumping $150 million into a loss-making flying-car company looks like an odd use of money for a carmaker. Stellantis (STLA.MI) Chief Executive Carlos Tavares has plenty to worry about already, like a looming recession and growing competition from Chinese giants. Yet the auto group’s deal with $513 million Archer Aviation (ACHR.N) looks like a savvy bet. It also locks in secure funding at a time when public and venture capital investors are increasingly jittery. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Separately, Apple may allow other companies to set up app marketplaces on its iPhone, Bloomberg reported. But that won’t trouble Amazon much: private-label sales were 1% of its total, founder Jeff Bezos told the Congress in 2020. Any offer from Apple to allow competing app stores carries a similar risk. Chief Executive Tim Cook could conceivably try the same trick with third-party iPhone app stores, for example by making users plug their device into a computer. These include allowing app stores operated by third parties on its iPhone, according to the report.

☆ Crypto bank run vindicates watchdogs’ vigilance
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-05 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

What happened to Silvergate was a classic – and these days rare – bank run. Deposits from crypto firms fell to $3.8 billion in December from $11.9 billion in September. Silvergate hadn’t locked up customers’ deposits in loans, instead stacking its $15 billion balance sheet with government bonds and other easy-to-sell assets. But bank regulators too have kept crypto on a tight leash: They warned on Tuesday that they are closely watching banks with crypto-focused business models. If a go-to crypto bank can lose most of its deposits without failing or spreading chaos to other institutions, it suggests the firewall between digital and traditional finance is holding up.

☆ Soccer giants’ new owners may get tiny returns
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Streisand Neto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Financial Times reported that PSG’s Qatari owners wanted to offload 15% of the French champions. Recent deals valued the National Football League’s Denver Broncos and basketball’s Utah Jazz at over 9 times revenue, according to Forbes. Possible Man United, Liverpool and PSG owners might hope that the teams will eventually reach such valuation heights. Fenway Sports Group would consider new shareholders for Liverpool, having frequently received expressions of interest from third parties, the English Premier League club’s owners said on Nov. 7. The Financial Times reported on Nov. 28 that Paris Saint-Germain’s Qatari owners were considering selling 15% of the club.

☆ Carmakers will reverse out of public markets
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-28 | by ( Neil Unmack | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Shares of carmakers like Stellantis (STLA.MI) and BMW (BMWG.DE) are suffering, as investors fret over a potential recession and falling car sales. It’s an opportunity for deep-pocketed funds or backers to steer them out of public markets altogether. There are risks: Carmakers are loath to borrow too much, for fear of damaging their financial services divisions. Assume a private equity buyer teamed up with the Quandt clan and acquired minority investors’ shares at a 25% premium, using debt, for 37 billion euros. If public markets dislike European carmakers, there may be a private market solution.

☆ How Ana Botín can defeat the Santander sceptics
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, Dec 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Investors aren’t buying what Ana Botín is selling. That’s striking because analysts expect Santander to earn a respectable 11% return on tangible equity (ROTE) over the next 12 months. One way to express the dissonance between those numbers is to infer the return investors require to hold the bank’s shares. To shed that discount, Botín must prove Santander is the best owner of its component bits. The group generated an annualised return on tangible equity of almost 14% in the first nine months of 2022.

HONG KONG, Dec 21 (Reuters Breakingviews) - China has become a headache for Western executives. The good news is that the dilemma need not require drastic action from U.S. and European chief executives, since local Chinese partners could solve the problem by relocating themselves. Foreign executives have had a hard time dealing with China’s zero-Covid policy, rising labour costs and U.S. tariffs. On the other hand, existing economic interests plus Beijing’s renewed push to attract foreign investment both argue for staying put. But if Chinese suppliers now start boosting foreign investment to keep hold of key customers, the government may have little choice but to give its blessing.

☆ Buyout barons will court the panicking masses
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Jonathan Guilford | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Since they’ve already scoured traditional funding sources like pension funds and insurers, they’ll make a priority of tapping wealthy individuals in 2023. Even those slower to embrace the trend, like Carlyle (CG.O), are getting about 10% of inflows from individuals. Pension plans and other stalwarts have seen their stocks and bonds slump in value, potentially leaving them overexposed to buyout funds, private credit, real estate and infrastructure. These investors don’t always have the resources or stomach to lock up their money for half a decade or longer. Third-party platforms like Moonfare are proliferating, pooling retail capital into vehicles that buy stakes in buyout funds.

☆ UAE will look to a world beyond OPEC
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( George Hay | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The UAE has chafed at OPEC restrictions before, in 2020 and 2021. OPEC’s alliance with Russia, as part of the wider OPEC+ group, similarly risks lumping its members in with a wider anti-Western bloc. But ADNOC’s accelerated oil production timetable is arguably more in keeping with a different outlook, preferred by the International Energy Agency, whereby oil demand peaks much sooner. If MbZ were to use the COP28 conference to make that more explicit, it could push the UAE further away from OPEC. And quitting OPEC to pump more oil would be awkward while hosting a climate conference.

☆ Intrepid bankers will find Boutique Blvd jam-packed
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Jeffrey Goldfarb | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The situation complicates things for rainmakers considering their next steps in a weaker environment for mergers and acquisitions. Making the well-trod move from Wall Street to Boutique Boulevard will be much harder in 2023. The entrepreneurial spirit often hits investment bankers when times get tough, and their mega-bank employers start cutting staff or restricting access to the balance sheet. It's easy to see how the likes of Blair Effron’s Centerview, Robey Warshaw and Ken Moelis’ eponymous firm established themselves. Absent those kinds of industry-specific or geographic relationships, idle investment bankers may find themselves just spending more time with their families.

☆ Who will be Wall Street’s un-American idol?
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

Europeans have been losing the battle against Wall Street’s cozy club for a decade. Deutsche Bank has done the former. BNP has made smaller steps, buying Bank of America’s prime broking business in 2008, then Deutsche Bank’s in 2019. Even with the best intentions, European banks must contend with their own regulators, which affects their ability to take risk elsewhere. JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs together took the top five slots for debt capital markets and merger advisory, as they also did in 2021.

☆ Danske slap confirms pay-what-you-can principle
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

That’s one takeaway from the $2 billion slap it delivered late on Tuesday to Denmark’s Danske Bank (DANSKE.CO), which pleaded guilty to conspiracy to commit bank fraud. Danske’s Estonian unit processed $160 billion of potentially illicit payments through U.S. banks on behalf of foreign customers, including Russians, the DOJ said. BNP Paribas (BNPP.PA) in 2014, by contrast, agreed to pay roughly $9 billion for moving $8.8 billion for sanctioned clients. In Danske’s case, the bill is roughly 1% of suspicious flows, whereas BNP’s was around 100% of illicit payments. Danske will be able to keep using U.S. correspondent banks for dollar payments, according to a person familiar with the matter.

☆ FTX sins don’t absolve its big-money enablers
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Lauren Silva Laughlin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Dec 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission wants everyone to know that Sam Bankman-Fried was a bad actor. The financial watchdog and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Tuesday alleged that the founder of bankrupt currency exchange FTX committed fraud, while federal prosecutors made a criminal case. The CFTC focused on customers, whose money it says FTX sent to Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund Alameda Research, which allegedly used it for venture investments and loans to FTX executives. loadingCONTEXT NEWSU.S. federal prosecutors filed a criminal lawsuit against Sam Bankman-Fried, alleging he committed fraud and violated campaign finance laws. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission also alleged Bankman-Fried committed fraud in complaints filed on Dec. 13.

☆ Ukraine’s Nestlé boost is as important as EU aid
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Consumer group Nestlé (NESN.S) on Monday announced a small war-time investment in Ukraine which may be as important for the country’s future as an 18 billion euro European Union aid package agreed on the same day. Nestlé will invest 40 million Swiss francs (41 million euros) in a new facility that will help to produce cold sauces, seasonings, soups and instant food. The Swiss consumer group, which already has 5,800 employees in the country, will add 1,500 new jobs in the process. Meanwhile the EU struck a deal with holdout Hungary that will allow it to disburse aid to Ukraine next year. While still at war with Russia, Ukraine needs Western aid to help the government pay its teachers, doctors and soldiers, and start rebuilding railroads and power plants.

☆ Breakingviews: FTX sins don’t absolve its big-money enablers
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Lauren Silva Laughlin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

NEW YORK, Dec 13 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission wants everyone to know that Sam Bankman-Fried was a bad actor. The financial watchdog and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Tuesday alleged that the founder of bankrupt currency exchange FTX committed fraud, while federal prosecutors made a criminal case. The U.S. government, meanwhile, has accused Bankman-Fried of eight criminal violations, ranging from wire fraud to conspiracy to commit money laundering. Follow @thereallsl on TwitterloadingCONTEXT NEWSU.S. federal prosecutors filed a criminal lawsuit against Sam Bankman-Fried, alleging he committed fraud and violated campaign finance laws. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission also alleged Bankman-Fried committed fraud in complaints filed on Dec. 13.

☆ UK’s Big Bang barely mitigates City’s Brexit pain
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-09 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Hence Friday’s package, long trailed as a “Big Bang”, supposed to turbocharge the City. Eventually, he could end the regime if banks prove they can safely be wound down. Hunt’s broader push is to enlist the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority supervisors in his Big Bang, giving them a statutory responsibility for boosting the economy’s competitiveness. The only way to undo the damage would be to align with European rules indefinitely or to re-join the bloc, both of which are political no-gos. The government will also introduce new statutory objectives for the Financial Conduct Authority watchdog and the Prudential Regulation Authority, which supervises banks and insurers.

☆ Banks’ buyout-debt machine defies quick jumpstart
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-08 | by ( Neil Unmack | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Asset managers like Blackstone (BX.N) or Axa (AXAF.PA) pick the underlying loans, while investment banks underwrite the CLO securities and place them with credit investors. Many of the bonds that come out the other side get an ultra-safe AAA credit rating. The combination of higher funding costs and slower private-equity dealmaking has pushed sales of European CLO securities down 67% year-on-year, according to JPMorgan analysts. So, for example, 70% of the whole portfolio would have to default, with the creditors recovering just half of their money, before AAA tranches see a loss. That means banks’ biggest CLO risk is an even sharper slowdown, not a blowup.

☆ DWS’s best valuation fix is out of CEO’s hands
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, Dec 7 (Reuters Breakingviews) - DWS (DWSG.DE) is thriving but not getting much credit. It is valued at less than 10 times next year’s earnings, based on analysts’ estimates, versus Schroders (SDR.L) on a multiple of nearly 13. Hoops, himself a former Deutsche executive, admits the arrangement may hurt the stock. For now, Hoops will have to just fix what he can. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Big Pharma’s heartburn win is a valuation salve
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Aimee Donnellan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The equity value of GSK (GSK.L), Sanofi (SASY.PA) and Haleon (HLN.L) crashed in August, after analysts warned of a massive thwack linked to claims that heartburn medication Zantac caused cancer. On Tuesday, a Florida judge broadly agreed and threw out roughly 50,000 claims in federal court. Morgan Stanley analysts had estimated the overall Zantac litigation hit could have been as high as $45 billion. The Zantac judge has just proved that courts can be a help as well as a hindrance. Shares in GSK were up 9% to 15.08 pounds as of 0958 GMT on Dec. 7, while Sanofi rose 5% to 90.03 euros.

☆ Circle’s SPAC flop does the public market a favor
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The firm run by Jeremy Allaire planned to go public through a marriage with a special-purpose acquisition company, valuing it at $9 billion. USD Coin is regulated by a New York financial watchdog, unlike rival Tether, but lacks the secure trust-company structure of peers Gemini and Paxos. Concord, a listed special-purpose acquisition company chaired by former Barclays chief Bob Diamond, agreed to buy Circle in July 2021. The circulating supply of USD Coin was $43 billion on Dec. 5, according to CoinMarketCap, compared with $53 billion in February. At that time, Circle estimated there would be $110 billion of USD Coin in circulation by the end of 2022.

☆ UK banks’ Big Bang thankfully looks like big flop
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Yet, the mooted changes would probably only benefit middling lenders like Santander UK, Virgin Money (VMUK.L) and Banco Sabadell’s (SABE.MC) TSB Bank, according to the FT. And on Wednesday, the BoE’s supervisory body said it planned largely to stick to international bank-capital rules, dubbed Basel 3.1. But the big flop might not be such a bad thing for the country’s financial sector. Separately, the government’s City minister Andrew Griffith said on Nov. 29 that he wanted to relax the so-called ringfencing regime that forces large British lenders to separate their retail and investment banking arms. According to the Financial Times, the ringfencing regime would still apply to the biggest UK banks but there could be exemptions for lenders with limited trading operations including Santander UK, Virgin Money and TSB Bank.

☆ Nestlé U-turn is refreshing example of M&A candour
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

It’s less common for them to admit as much and reverse tack after just two years. Nestlé originally touted potential annual sales of $1 billion for the drug, which had received U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval. Nestlé Chief Executive Mark Schneider can arguably afford to be honest, rather than trying to bury the M&A flop within his $330 billion behemoth. That’s because his overall acquisition strategy seems to be working. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

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☆ Juventus drama calls for an Exor exit strategy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Lisa Jucca | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Chairman Andrea Agnelli and the other directors resigned en masse on Monday amid intense legal and regulatory scrutiny of the Italian soccer club’s accounts. Prosecutors in the club’s Turin home region, and Italian market regulator Consob, queried how Juventus accounted for its players’ pay. Soccer clubs are in high demand, with Chelsea’s sale earlier this year attracting a feeding frenzy among would-be owners. CONTEXT NEWSJuventus FC Chairman Andrea Agnelli resigned on Nov. 28 along with the Italian soccer club’s entire board, citing pending legal and accounting matters. Prosecutors and Italian market regulator Consob have been scrutinising the club for possible false accounting and market manipulation.

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