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☆ Morning Bid: October market fillip as government stays open
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. U.S. Treasury yields, whose relentless rise of late has been at the heart of market disturbances as it prices "higher for longer" interest rates, pushed higher again on Monday too. Ten-year yields were up five basis points to 4.62% - just shy of last week's 16-year peak of 4.69%. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Monday:* US Sept manufacturing surveys by ISM and S&P Global. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Kevin McCarthy, McCarthy, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester, John Williams, Fitch, Nick Macfie Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Democratic, Republican, Ukraine, Treasury, Bank of Japan, of, Petroleum, Reuters, P Global, Cleveland Fed, New York Fed, Tech, Moody's, U.S . AAA, Chicago, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Russia, OPEC, China, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, York

☆ Americans support strikes — until they affect their daily lives
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-01 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The public will continue to support them – that is until the strikes begin to affect Americans’ daily lives. CNN reached out to the Justice Department for comment but has not received a response. The US Labor Department releases August figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department reports the number of worker filings for jobless benefits in the week ended September 30. The US Labor Department releases September data on the state of the job market, including payroll gains, wage growth and the unemployment rate.

Persons: –, ” Andrew Flowers, “, Eva Rothenberg, Suisse’s, Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker, Michael Barr, John Williams, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Levi Strauss, Tom Barkin, Mary Daly Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN —, Gallup, Guild of America, Teamsters, Reno, United Auto Workers, UAW, Toyota, Honda, CNN, Nationwide, UBS, DOJ, US Department of Justice, Credit Suisse, “ UBS, CS, Bloomberg, Justice Department, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, McCormick, US Labor Department, Atlanta Fed, Constellation Brands, Conagra, Co, US Commerce Department, Carnival Corp Locations: Washington, United States, Hollywood, Las Vegas, Germany, Russia

☆ Morning Bid: Spiky quarter ends in uneasy market calm
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. At 4.53% on Friday, the 10-year benchmark was some 15 basis points off Thursday's peak and two-year yields fell back to their lowest since Sept. 18. Some optimism from Beijing about a possible year-end summit between President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden helped. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Friday:* US August PCE inflation gauge, personal income and spending. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Thursday's, Xi Jinping, Joe Biden, Lifeng, Federal Reserve's, Jerome Powell, Thomas Barkin, it's, Kathleen O'Neill Paese, John Williams, Toby Chopra Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Organization of, Petroleum, Wall Street Journal, Federal, Fed, Richmond Fed, Nike, HK, Reuters, Mercedes, Benz, Chicago, University of, Louis Federal Reserve, New York Fed, U.S, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Beijing, China, Washington, Hong Kong, Nio

☆ New York Fed President John Williams: Federal Reserve is at or near peak rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNew York Fed President John Williams: Federal Reserve is at or near peak ratesCNBC's Steve Liesman and Mike Santoli join 'Halftime Report' to discuss NY Fed President William's comments about further reductions in labor demand needed to find balance, GDP slowing estimates for next quarter, and progress on the Fed funds rate reaching peak levels.

Persons: John Williams, Steve Liesman, Mike Santoli, William's Organizations: New, Fed, Federal, NY

☆ Defeating inflation without high unemployment is still unlikely
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-24 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

And the US economy’s surprising resilience, despite 11 rate hikes, has raised hopes of a soft landing becoming a reality. “I’ve always thought that the soft landing was a plausible outcome, that there was a path to a soft landing,” he said. But historical records show that a soft landing has only occurred once in the 1990s, or perhaps even a handful of times. The US Commerce Department releases its final estimate of second-quarter gross domestic product. The US Commerce Department releases August data on household income, spending, and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Persons: it’s, Jerome Powell, Powell, “ I’ve, ”, “, Powell’s, ” “ Jerome Powell, ” Quincy Krosby, Krosby, ” Krosby, Matt Egan, ” Neil Bradley, “ We’ve, Read, Christine Lagarde, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Lisa Cook, John Williams Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Fed, LPL, CNN, Corporate, US Chamber of Commerce, European Central Bank, Costco, Global, Board, Survey, US Commerce Department, Micron, Nike, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, Carnival Corp, University of Michigan, New York Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Washington

☆ 'R-star' is a key tool in the Fed's fight against inflation. But what is it?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-24 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Both are determined by inflation-adjusted interest rates, which are represented by the variable r in economic models. The interest rate that causes demand for savings to equal demand for investing, is typically denoted as R*. To tame inflation that hit a four-decade high last year, the Fed has been raising interest rates. At the same time, if central bank officials continue to hike rates to get inflation down, they run the risk of overshooting. None of that would be the case at the neutral interest rate.

Persons: New York CNN —, It’s, Jerome Powell, Knut Wicksell, John Williams, Powell, it’s, catchup, we’ve, ” Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, World Bank, New York Fed, Fed Locations: New York, Swedish

☆ Fed losses breach $100 billion as interest costs rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve losses breached the $100 billion mark, central bank data released on Thursday showed, and they're likely to go a lot higher before the red ink stops. While there's considerable uncertainty around how it will all play out, some observers believe Fed losses, which began a year ago, could eventually as much as double before abating. William English, a former top central bank staffer now at Yale University, said he sees a "peak" loss of around $200 billion by 2025. Meanwhile, Derek Tang of forecasting firm LH Meyer said the loss is likely to be between $150 billion and $200 billion by next year. In 2022, the Fed handed back $76 billion, after returning $109 billion in 2021.

Persons: William English, Derek Tang, Meyer, James Bullard, Louis Fed, that's, What's, John Williams, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Yale University, Fed, Treasury, . Bank, Securities, New York Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ NY Fed poll finds mostly stable inflation views, more financial worries in August
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The relative stability of inflation expectations last month came as the survey found respondents predicted accelerating price increases for a range of key categories. At the same time, survey respondents were more downbeat about access to credit and their current and future financial positions. A record number of households reported that credit was harder to get and a rising number of respondents predicted tougher credit access in the months ahead. The New York Fed survey arrives as the Fed moves toward its next rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meeting, scheduled for September 19-20. Inflation expectations “have been incredibly well behaved, “ New York Fed President John Williams said last Thursday.

Persons: Shannon Stapleton, “, John Williams, we've, Michael S, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, New York Fed, “ New York Fed, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, July’s, Central

Are higher rates going to lead to some slow down in conjunction with the dwindling of excess consumer savings," said Lefkowitz, who also cited concerns about high valuations in equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 75.86 points, or 0.22%, to 34,576.59, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 6.35 points, or 0.14%, to 4,457.49 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 12.69 points, or 0.09%, to 13,761.53. For the week, which was shortened by Monday's Labor Day holiday, the S&P 500 fell 1.3%, while the Nasdaq lost 1.9% with both snapping two weeks of gains. After losing 2.9% in two sessions, the S&P 500 technology sector (.SPLRCT) closed higher. The S&P 500 posted 13 new 52-week highs and 17 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 36 new highs and 229 new lows.

Persons: David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, Brendan McDermid, Phil Blancato, Ladenburg, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Ryan Cohen, Sinéad Carew, Chuck Mikolajczak, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Shristi, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi, David Gregorio Our Organizations: Gilead Sciences, Kroger, Dow, Nasdaq, Index, UBS Global Wealth Management, Dow Jones, Monday's Labor, Apple, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Asset Management, York Fed, Dallas, BofA Securities, GameStop, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, NYSE, Thomson Locations: Beijing, New York City, U.S, New York, Bengaluru

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. Are higher rates going to lead to some slow down in conjunction with the dwindling of excess consumer savings," said Lefkowitz, who also cited concerns about high equity valuations. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 6.85 points, or 0.15%, to end at 4,457.62 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) gained 12.69 points, or 0.09%, to 13,761.53. Oil prices are up so far in September and on track for a fourth straight monthly gain, and this week's data also fueled inflation fears. This included stronger-than-expected services activity data and a fall in weekly jobless claims.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, Phil Blancato, Ladenburg, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Sinéad Carew, Shristi, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi, David Gregorio Our Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Index, Federal, FedWatch, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Asset Management, York Fed, Dallas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New York, Bengaluru

The National Book Foundation, the nonprofit which presents the book awards, announced Friday that Dove is this year’s winner of its medal for Distinguished Contribution to American Letters, an honor previously given to Toni Morrison, Edmund White and Art Spiegelman among others. She is best known for her poetry, but has worked in other art forms and is currently planning a memoir. “Dove’s work transforms the everyday into the remarkable, brilliantly blending music, politics, and, let’s not forget, pleasure.”Political Cartoons View All 1148 ImagesThe National Book Award ceremony is scheduled for Nov. 15 in Manhattan, with Drew Barrymore hosting. Dove has received so many previous honors, lifetime and competitive, that it’s almost surprising the book foundation didn’t get around to her sooner. A fellow Pulitzer winner, poet Jericho Brown, will introduce Dove at the National Book Awards.

Persons: —, Rita Dove, I’m, Toni Morrison, Edmund White, Spiegelman, “ Thomas, Beulah, ”, Oscar, John Williams, Rita Dove’s, ” Ruth Dickey, “, let’s, Drew Barrymore, Dove, Paul Yamazaki, Lawrence Ferlinghetti, Ruth Lilly, Jericho Brown, Shakespeare, William Blake, Rosa Parks, Fred Viebahn, Cave Organizations: Book Foundation, Luck, Lights Booksellers & Publishers, Poet, City, Presidential, University of Miami, University of Iowa, Pulitzer, Humanities, of Arts, NAACP, Poetry Foundation, Library of Congress, American Academy of Arts and, University of Virginia Locations: Ivory, Manhattan, San Francisco's, Akron , Ohio, Ohio, Charlottesville , Virginia, New York City

☆ Morning Bid: Markets find feet after Apple topples
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

People walk near an Apple logo outside its store in Shanghai, China September 8, 2023. The stock appeared to stabilize in out-of-hours trade on Friday and Morgan Stanley analysts claimed China's iPhone bans would at most hit Apple revenues by about 4%. The upshot was the rates market calmed a bit - with the odds on another Fed hike in the cycle falling back below 50% despite the red hot jobless claims readout. That helped Treasury yields <US10YT+RR> fall back too, aided by the stock market wobble and an oil price coming off the boil. The stock exchange there halted trading in both securities and derivatives markets due to a black rainstorm warning.

Persons: Aly, Mike Dolan, Apple sideswipe, Morgan Stanley, We've, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee, Lorie Logan, Michael Barr, Mary Daly, Andrew Cawthorne Organizations: Apple, REUTERS, Federal, Huawei, New, Fed, Chicago Fed, Dallas Fed, San Francisco Fed, Kroger Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, U.S, India, Asia, Hong Kong, United States, New Delhi

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. The Consumer Price Index reading for August is due on Sept. 13, while the Federal Reserve's policy decision is scheduled for Sept. 20. New York Fed President John Williams kept his options open over future interest rate policy and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said while it "could be appropriate" to skip a rate hike in the upcoming meeting, more policy tightening might be needed. DocuSign (DOCU.O) added 3.1% as the e-Signature product provider beat second-quarter results estimates and raised its annual revenue forecast. GameStop (GME.N) fell 2.3% on a report that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission was investigating the videogame retailer's chairman, Ryan Cohen.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mark Haefele, Morgan Stanley, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Mary Daly, Ryan Cohen, Shristi Achar, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mizuho, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, UBS Global Wealth Management, Traders, FedWatch, Apple, Wall, Dow e, . New York Fed, Dallas Fed, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, GameStop, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Beijing, China, Bengaluru

☆ US stocks end higher but Wall Street closes out losing week amid interest rate concerns
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Major indexes ended Friday higher but were down on the week as rate fears persisted. Signs of a tight labor market renewed fears of further interest rate hikes this year. Apple fell 5% during the week on fears of a widening crackdown in China on the use of iPhones. Through the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.26%, the Dow fell 0.53%, and the Nasdaq dropped 2.11%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, 43.5% of investors are expecting an interest rate hike in November.

Persons: John Williams, Apple Organizations: Apple, Service, Dow, Nasdaq, New York Fed, Here's, Dow Jones Locations: China, Wall, Silicon

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. U.S. Treasury yields edged lower on Friday, helping boost major growth stocks, with Microsoft (MSFT.O) leading gains, up 1.9%, and Meta Platforms (META.O) advancing nearly 1%. The S&P 500 information technology (.SPLRCT) sector rose 0.6% while energy stocks (.SPNY) rose 1.3% to their highest level in over seven months, tracking an uptick in crude prices. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.64-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.01-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 recorded 13 new 52-week highs and 14 new lows, while the Nasdaq posted 31 new highs and 160 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Morgan Stanley, Phil Blancato, Ladenburg, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Ryan Cohen, Shristi Achar, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Gilead Sciences, Kroger, Dow, Nasdaq, Apple, Microsoft, Treasury, Wall, Federal Reserve, Index, Federal, Asset Management, FedWatch, New York Fed, Dallas, Dow Jones, BofA Securities, GameStop, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Beijing, Bengaluru

☆ Fed's Williams: An 'open question' whether Fed will need to hike again
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

John Williams, Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, speaks at an event in New York, U.S., November 6, 2019. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri/file photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Sept 7 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said on Thursday that it's an "open question" whether monetary policy is restrictive enough to bring the economy back into balance. Williams declined to say whether the Fed should raise rates again. The Fed is to meet on Sept. 19-20. Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: John Williams, Carlo Allegri, Williams, We’ve, ”, Michael S, Leslie Adler Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Fed, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, U.S

Sept 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Brent crude oil is now higher than it was a year ago, the first time since January that year-on-year price changes have been positive. In other words, all else equal, oil is now contributing to headline inflation rather than diluting it. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday:- Japan GDP (Q2, revised)- Japan current account (July)- Japan bank lending (August)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, John Williams, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, Josie Kao Organizations: Brent, Investors, New York Fed, nudging, Saturday, Saturday . U.S, Apple, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Japan, Asia, New Delhi, China, Beijing, Saturday .

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. ETFutures: Dow up 0.03%, S&P down 0.29%, Nasdaq down 0.62%Sept 7 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures fell on Thursday over concerns about sticky inflation, while investors awaited comments from key Federal Reserve officials later in the day to gauge the U.S. interest rate path. Investors await comments from at least six Fed speakers, including policy voting members Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Vice Chair and New York Fed President John Williams, due to speak later in the day. ET, Dow e-minis were up 9 points, or 0.03%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 13 points, or 0.29%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 94.75 points, or 0.62%. GameStop (GME.N) climbed 4.8% after the videogame retailer beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly revenue and posted a smaller-than-expected loss.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Alibaba, Susannah Streeter, Hargreaves Lansdown, Patrick Harker, John Williams, Wells, Shristi Achar, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, GameStop, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Apple, Nvidia, PDD Holdings, Baidu, Philadelphia Fed, New York Fed, Traders, Investors, Dow e, Wall, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, McDonald's, Bengaluru

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 19, 2023. The S&P 500 information technology index (.SPLRCT) fell 1.9% while the Philadelphia semiconductor index (.SOX) dropped 2.8%. ET, the S&P 500 (.SPX) was down 21.95 points, or 0.49%, at 4,443.53, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) was down 176.52 points, or 1.27%, at 13,695.95. The weightage of a stock on the Dow is proportional to its share value as opposed to the market capitalization-weighted S&P 500 (.SPX.). The S&P index recorded 10 new 52-week highs and 23 new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 16 new highs and 212 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, stoked, Rick Meckler, Alibaba, Patrick Harker, John Williams, Dow Jones, Wells, Shristi Achar, Johann M, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Apple, Bloomberg, Nvidia, Netflix, U.S, Cherry Lane Investments, Skyworks, Qualcomm, Labor Department, Traders, PDD Holdings, Baidu, Philadelphia Fed, New York Fed, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Wells Fargo, Philadelphia, McDonald's, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: Transatlantic surprise gap opens up again
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. And the gap between those two gauges, which had halved from July peaks, is starting to yawn wider yet again. Although the steep annual drop in Chinese exports and imports last month was marginally better than forecast, the ongoing funk in activity remains stark and threatens Beijing's overall economic growth target of about 5%. At least six senior Fed officials are in speaking engagements later on Thursday - including Fed board member Michelle Bowman and New York Fed chief John Williams. Events to watch for on Thursday:* U.S. weekly jobless claims, Q2 labor cost and productivity revisions* Federal Reserve Board Governor Michelle Bowman, New York Fed President John Williams, Chicago Fed chief Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed chief Patrick Harker, Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic and Dallas Fed chief Lorie Logan all speak.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Mike Dolan, Andrew Bailey, Michelle Bowman, John Williams, bourses steadied, Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan, Joe Biden, Susan Fenton Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, U.S, Federal, Treasury, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, Fed, New York Fed, Apple, Beijing, Federal Reserve, Michelle Bowman , New York Fed, Chicago Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, Dallas Fed, PMI Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, United States, Europe, China, Brent, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Japan, Asia, Michelle Bowman , New, Atlanta, India, New Delhi

[1/3] Fed Governor Philip Jefferson testifies before a Senate Banking Committee hearing on his nomination to be the Federal Reserve's next vice chair, on Capitol Hill in Washington, U.S., June 21, 2023. Senators also confirmed Fed Governor Lisa Cook to a fresh 14-year term at the central bank, though they did so in a 51-47 vote that broke along partisan lines. Both Jefferson and Cook have a PhD in economics and became Fed governors in May of 2022 after long careers in academia. The U.S. central bank's vice chair, whose term is four years, also traditionally serves as the Fed chief's go-to official on policy communications, underscoring key messages and clarifying potential misinterpretations. The confirmations of Jefferson, Cook and Kugler would make the board the most diverse in the central bank's more-than-100-year history.

Persons: Philip Jefferson, Jonathan Ernst, Lisa Cook, Cook, Jerome Powell, Powell, John Williams, Adriana Kugler, Jefferson, Kugler, Ann Saphir, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Capitol, REUTERS, U.S, Senate, Federal Reserve, Senators, Jefferson, New York Fed, World Bank, Fed, Latina, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S

☆ NY Fed data shows a decline in neutral rate during second quarter
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-05 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The bank said its R-Star estimate for the second quarter ticked down to 0.57%, from the first quarter’s 0.68%. Analysts typically translate that rate into a real-world setting by adding R-Star to the Fed’s 2% inflation target. Given that the Fed’s current target rate range is at 5.25% to 5.5%, it suggests monetary policy remains at a notably restrictive level for the economy. One key test of how Fed officials are thinking about the issue could come at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for Sept. 19-20. At that gathering officials are due to update forecasts for interest rates and the economy and that will include a view on long-run rates.

Persons: John Williams, there’s, Jerome Powell, Michael S, Andrea Ricci Organizations: New York Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Federal, Committee, Thomson Locations: New, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, guesswork

Stocks - which have wobbled in August as rising bond yields threatened to dull the allure of equities - were little changed with the S&P 500 up 0.22%. REVIVING RECESSION WORRIESSome investors were worried that higher rates could weigh on growth and increase the chances of a recession next year. Such a scenario, in theory, would force the Fed to cut rates, pulling bond yields lower. But while risks remained that long-term bond yields could move higher, he was looking to extend the duration of his portfolio. Reporting by Davide Barbuscia and David Randall; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, John Williams, Ann Saphir, Powell, ”, Cindy Beaulieu, Jackson, “ Powell, Anders Persson, Mike Sewell, Rowe Price, Josh Emanuel, Davide Barbuscia, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: New York Fed, Kansas, Fed, REUTERS, Kansas City, Financial, Treasury, Investors, Futures, Thomson Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S

☆ What happens in Jackson Hole doesn’t stay in Jackson Hole
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Most of the year, people visit Jackson Hole, Wyoming, to ski, fly fish or simply enjoy the region’s vast natural beauty. Setting the stage: the economic backdropInflation has slowed significantly since last year’s Jackson Hole conference, alongside glimmers of a cooling labor market. A look back at past Jackson Hole conferencesLast year’s Jackson Hole conference was notable not just because it was the first time in two years that economists gathered in person. Months after Bernanke’s Jackson Hole speech, he unveiled a whole new phase of bond-purchasing in what has now become known as QE2. A columnist for the Financial Times went so far as to say that Draghi “certainly stole the show this year [at Jackson Hole].”No matter what comes out of the conference this year, it’s clear that what happens in Jackson Hole doesn’t stay in Jackson Hole.

Persons: Jackson, Jerome Powell, He’ll, Michael Cahill, Goldman Sachs, Powell, —, Ben Bernanke, ”, Cahill, “, Bernanke’s Jackson, Bernanke, Janet Yellen, “ it’s, ” Cahill, Michael Woodford, John Williams, Williams, European Central Bank Mario Draghi Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Kansas City Fed, Jackson, Fed, Traders, Goldman, CNN, Columbia University, ” New York Fed, San Francisco Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Financial Times Locations: New York, , Wyoming, Woodstock, Jackson

He called the U.S. central bank's misreading of the issue "a major failure" that can mar analysis of where the economy stands. Since 2016, policies from the vastly different Trump and Biden administrations have combined in a sort of accidental complementarity to keep both job and economic growth above the Fed's estimate of potential. Median Fed policymaker projections of potential U.S. economic growth have slid from a level around 2.5% a decade ago to 1.8% as of June 2023, when the last projections were issued. Under pressure from colleagues to raise interest rates as the economy accelerated, Greenspan resisted and accommodated the expansion instead of fighting it. But it could help economic growth continue even as prices cool, another prop for the "soft landing" the Fed hopes to engineer and possible evidence of rising potential.

Persons: John Williams, Joe Biden, Adam Posen, Donald Trump, Trump's, Biden, Dana Peterson, Peterson, Jerome Powell, Board's Peterson, Alan Greenspan's, Greenspan, Jackson, John Fernald, Huiyu Li, Michael Feroli, Antulio Bomfim, Powell, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed, San Francisco, Fed, Reuters, BlackRock, Bank of England, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump, Biden, Conference Board, Jackson, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Trust Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Washington

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