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REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/file photo Acquire Licensing RightsAug 18 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. At the very least, investors are nervous and scrambling to adjust to the higher yield environment. But given the tightening of financial conditions around the world, investors remain wary. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is above 4.30%, a whisker from highs not recorded since 2007 and the 10-year real yield at almost 2.0% is already at levels last seen in 2009. This is taking its toll - financial conditions across emerging markets are the tightest since early December, according to Goldman Sachs's EM financial conditions index, and risk assets are getting pounded.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Jamie McGeever, Bonds, Japan's, Goldman Sachs's, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Treasury, Bank of, People's Bank of China, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Ameyoko, Tokyo, Japan, Bank of Japan, China, Asia, Malaysia

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsAug 17 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Asian market sentiment on Thursday will again be a mix of caution and nervousness, with familiar roots: a supercharged dollar and rising U.S. bond yields, tightening financial conditions, and deepening concern over China. Goldman Sachs's financial conditions indexes show that Chinese and aggregate emerging market financial conditions have tightened sharply this month, by more than 100 basis points, and are both now the tightest this year. But the pressure on Beijing to do more to support the creaking economy can be seen in the 10-year yield's slide to its lowest since May 2020. Remarkably, China's 10-year yield is now 170 basis points below the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, the widest gap since 2007.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jamie McGeever, Goldman, Brent, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, People's Bank of, Treasury, Thomson, Reuters Locations: China, U.S, Asia, Hong Kong, Philippines, Tokyo, People's Bank of China, Beijing, Japan, Australia

ORLANDO, Florida, Aug 16 (Reuters) - Investors are hoping policymakers gathering at the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole Symposium later this month will shed light on one of the murkiest - yet fundamentally most important - tenets of monetary policy: R-star. Even the New York Fed's two most renowned R-star indicators, the Laubach-Williams model and the Holston-Laubach-Williams model, are, metaphorically speaking, miles apart. Martínez-García's estimate of short-term R-star is negative, while the New York Fed staffers' models suggest it has "increased considerably over the past year". The Fed is near the end of its tightening cycle having raised interest rates by 525 basis points to the highest since 2007. Longer-dated real bond yields have shot up to their highest level since 2009 even as market expectations for inflation and Fed rates have held steady.

Persons: Treasuries, Gennadiy Goldberg, Goldberg, Williams, Enrique Martínez, García, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, David Mericle, Jackson, John Williams reckons, Jamie McGeever Organizations: Kansas City Fed's, Fed, New, Dallas Fed, TD Securities, York, Dallas and New York Fed, New York Fed, Citi, Reuters, New York Times, Atlanta, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, New York, U.S, Dallas

Aug 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The word 'crisis' should always be used responsibly and judiciously when covering financial markets, business and economics, but are we at that point now with China? The People's Bank of China may have finally pulled the interest rate lever, but it had the expected impact of slamming the exchange rate. Compare and contrast China with Japan, as per Tuesday's bumper Q2 GDP data, and the U.S., where figures on Tuesday showed a surge in retail sales. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:- New Zealand interest rate decision- China house prices (July)- Japan tankan surveys (August)By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Josie KaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Zhang Dandan, JP Morgan, Josie Kao Organizations: Peking University, People's Bank of, Atlanta, Thomson, Reuters Locations: China, New Zealand, Japan, Asia, People's Bank of China, U.S, Hong, Zealand

REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoAug 15 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. As waves of volatility crashed over emerging markets on Monday, most notably in Argentina and Russia, the focus on Tuesday once again returns to the root of much of the deeper anxiety and uncertainty around EM: China. Reuters polls of economists suggest annual growth in investment and industrial output will remain steady from June's levels, while retail sales growth will rise to 4.5% from 3.1%. Tuesday's data dump comes a day before the central bank delivers its latest monthly monetary policy decision. With the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury yields marching higher, global financial conditions are tightening and there doesn't appear to be any respite for emerging markets on the immediate horizon.

Persons: Aly, Jamie McGeever, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, Investment, Reserve Bank of, Authorities, Reuters, U.S ., U.S, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Argentina, Russia, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Japan, Beijing, U.S, Asia

U.S. One dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. Managing the ballooning debt is more challenging now than when S&P stripped the United States of its AAA rating in 2011. The deficit before interest payments was lower then, economic growth was weak but still higher than prevailing interest rates, and the Fed was buying boatloads of bonds. Interest payments as a share of federal revenue, spending, and the economy are set to reach historically high levels early in the next decade. It's not just the supply of debt that matters - demand to hold that debt is critical.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Fitch, Uncle Sam, Carter, Chris Marsh, Bonds, Phil Suttle, It's, Jamie McGeever, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: REUTERS, AAA, Fed, Carter Administration, Investors, Reuters, Treasury, CBO, Suttle, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Washington, United States, Foreign, China, Treasuries, U.S

Annual consumer price inflation is expected to show a sharp rebound in July to 6.40% from 4.8%, and a slowdown in wholesale price deflation to -2.4% from -4.1%. Investors and the Bank of Japan, meanwhile, will be paying close attention to Japanese inflation data later in the week. Asian stocks have badly underperformed this year, largely due to worries over China which is battling weak growth, deflation, and capital outflows. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan equity index index has now fallen two weeks in a row for the first time since April, and is up only twice in the last eight weeks. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:- India consumer inflation (July)- India wholesale inflation (July)- Germany wholesale inflation (July)By Jamie McGeever; editing by Diane CraftOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Aly Song, Jamie McGeever, Diane Craft Organizations: Shanghai Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Tencent, Lenovo, Nasdaq, China's, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Pudong, Shanghai, China, New Zealand, Philippines, India, Asia, Japan, Beijing, outflows, Germany

If housing cost pressures start to ease more in the coming months, as many economists expect, then the Federal Reserve is almost certainly done. Headline annual consumer price inflation rose a little less than expected last month to 3.2%, and annual core inflation cooled slightly to 4.7%, as forecast. Reuters ImageReuters ImageShelter inflation is running at a 7.7% annual rate and has been far stickier than policymakers would have liked. But Parsons reckons lag effects will soon be bringing shelter inflation down more quickly. Reuters ImageReuters ImageReuters Image(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters)Reporting by Jamie McGeever; editing by Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Jay Parsons, Parsons, Jerome Powell's, Phil Suttle, Julia Coronado, Andreas Steno Larsen, Powell, Jamie McGeever, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Traders, Reuters, CPI, Suttle, Steno Research, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, ORLANDO, Florida, materializing

Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File PhotoAug 11 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Markets are betting that the Fed's most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in more than 40 years is over. The short end of the bond market was a bit more stable, reflecting the view that the Fed is done raising rates. The dollar is nudging 145.00 yen, around where the Bank of Japan spent record yen-buying sums late last year as the yen hurtled to a 33-year low.

Persons: Yen, Dado Ruvic, Jamie McGeever, Brent, Deepa Babington Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, Reserve Bank of India, India, Hong Kong

Aug 10 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Lingering concern over China's slide into deflation and caution ahead of U.S. inflation data will keep markets in check on Thursday, as investors also eye India's interest rate decision, wholesale inflation from Japan and Philippine GDP data. Although Chinese stocks fell for a third day on Wednesday the rest of Asia shrugged off the Chinese deflation figures, and the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index rose 0.5% for its best performance so far this month. Also on the inflation front, the annual rate of Japanese wholesale price inflation is expected to have fallen to 3.5% in July from 4.1% in June. Interest rate markets are pricing in a decent chance of a quarter-point hike, if not this week then certainly by the end of the year.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Asia shrugged, Fitch Organizations: Reserve Bank of India, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Japan, Philippine, United States, China, Asia, India, Philippines

In the two months since hedge funds began bailing on their record net short position in S&P 500 futures their equity returns have accelerated, narrowing the yawning year-to-date underperformance versus the broader market. Against that backdrop, perhaps not, although the weekly momentum on funds' S&P 500 futures positioning is the most bullish since December 2021. Reuters ImageReuters ImageReuters ImageThe latest CFTC figures show that hedge funds' net short position in e-mini S&P 500 futures at the end of July was around 200,000 contracts, the smallest net short since March. Just two months ago, at the end of May, funds were net short to the tune of 434,000 contracts, the largest net short position on record since these contracts were launched in 1997. If equity strategy-based hedge funds are slowly turning their poor 2023 performance around, their macro fund peers continue to struggle.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jamie McGeever, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, HFRI, Futures, Reuters, CFTC, ICE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, ORLANDO, Florida

Containers are seen at the Yangshan Deep-Water Port in Shanghai, China October 19, 2020. REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoAug 9 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Producer prices in China have been falling on an annual basis every month since October, and more importantly, the pace of decline has accelerated this year. The range of PPI forecasts is -6.1% to -2.9%, and the CPI range is -0.9% to 0.5%, according to Reuters polls. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Aly, Jamie McGeever, Deepa Babington Organizations: REUTERS, Wall Street, CPI, Bridgestone, Honda, Sony, Nasdaq, China CPI, PPI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Shanghai, China, Japan, Asia, South Korea

That would be a lag of eight months, significantly longer than the average gap between last hike and first cut going back decades. "In the past markets have tended to underestimate how high rates are raised and underestimate how low rates are cut. Inflation targeting, more sophisticated financial markets, transparent central bank communications, and greater central bank autonomy since the 1990s have all contributed as well. Brazil's central bank, one of the first to raise rates in early 2021, has started cutting them after a 12-month pause. Current market pricing suggests that will not come until 2025, which would be an even longer lag.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Andrew Kelly ORLANDO, Richard de Chazal, William Blair, de Chazal, Joe Lavorgna, BoE, Milton Friedman's, Jamie McGeever, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Nikko Securities America, Bank of, Reuters, The Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: New, New York City, U.S, Andrew Kelly ORLANDO , Florida, Brazil's

Containers are seen at the Yangshan Deep-Water Port in Shanghai, China October 19, 2020. REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoAug 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. China's July trade data top a heavy regional economic calendar on Tuesday, with current account, bank lending and household spending reports from Japan, current account data from South Korea and Australian consumer sentiment also on tap. But for the world's manufacturing and factory engine, focus is on the alarming weakness in exports. At -54.7, it is at its 'highest' level since June 30, but will soon be heading lower again if Tuesday's trade data disappoint.

Persons: Aly, Jamie McGeever, swatted, John Williams, Dow, Japan's Organizations: REUTERS, Wall, Treasury, New, Nasdaq, Equity, Nikon, Mazda, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Shanghai, China, Asia, Japan, South Korea, Beijing, U.S, Australia

Aug 7 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The U.S. yield curve steepened by 20-30 basis points last week - the biggest steepening since March - and the steepening of the 2-year/30-year yield curve by 30 basis points was one of the biggest weekly moves in over a decade. U.S. fiscal worries are also growing, however, and the Bank of Japan's recent 'yield curve control' surprise has lifted Japanese bond yields. Several potential market-moving data releases and events in Asia are also due, as well U.S. consumer price inflation for July. Monday's calendar in Asia is fairly light, with Indonesian Q2 GDP and Thai inflation for July the main releases.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, JP Morgan, Diane Craft Organizations: Nasdaq, Bank of, Sony, Reuters, Reserve Bank of India, China FX, Thomson Locations: Indonesia, Philippines, Asia, Japan, U.S, China, Beijing, Thailand

Aug 4 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The long end of the U.S. Treasury curve is getting crushed, triggering a surge in long-dated yields and 'steepening' of the curve. The Asian economic data and corporate events calendar on Friday is light, with only Philippines inflation and Singapore retail sales on tap, leaving regional markets beholden to global risk sentiment. The 10-year and 30-year yields are at their highest levels since November, comfortably above 4.0%, and the latter is on track for its biggest weekly rise this year. Global currency market and S&P 500 equity volatility are the highest in two months, and implied volatility in dollar/yen trading is registering its steepest weekly rise since March.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Deepa Babington Organizations: Investors, U.S, Treasury, Apple, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, Singapore, Japan, Philippines

Passersby are reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File PhotoAug 3 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Services PMI data from Australia, Japan, India and China are due on Thursday, with China's unofficial Caixin report coming under the closest scrutiny. The U.S. yield curve has been steepening for more than a week, led by selling at the long end. The yen ended the day little changed, and dollar/yen volatility is comfortably lower than it was before Friday's BOJ move.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Friday's, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, AAA, PMI, Nasdaq, Treasury, Bank of, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Australia, India, China, U.S

But the benign reaction across markets to the BOJ's latest "yield curve control" tweak suggests BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda may have timed this one just right. In those eight months global inflation has topped out and is now clearly falling, and major central banks are closer to "peak rates." Barclays analysts reckon the BOJ will scrap YCC in October, which would be "sufficiently justified" by Japan's strengthening inflation dynamics. BOJ GETS MARKET BUY-INWhenever the BOJ decides to start offloading its JGBs, there will be plenty of pent-up demand. But the early signs suggest investors believe the BOJ has timed it right and can, to coin a phrase, achieve its own "soft landing."

Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, Government Bond, Jamie McGeever, Paul Simao Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Government, Reuters, HSBC, Barclays, International Monetary Fund, U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, ORLANDO, Florida

Aug 2 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. A double dose of the U.S. Treasuries and dollar 'pain trade' looks set to put Asian markets on the defensive on Wednesday, with investors also bracing for South Korean inflation figures and an expected interest rate hike from the Bank of Thailand. Several indicators, from big Wall Street banks' client surveys to futures market positioning data, show investors are not positioned for that. The yen has fallen nearly 4% since the BOJ tweaked its seven-year 'yield curve control' policy on Friday. Annual inflation in South Korea, meanwhile, is expected to have slowed to 2.40% in July from 2.70% the month before.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Tuesday's, Deepa Babington Organizations: Bank of Thailand, Bank of, Apple, South, South Korea CPI, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, Pacific, U.S, South Korea, Thailand, Singapore

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationORLANDO, Florida, July 26 (Reuters) - Remember the U.S. twin deficits? The dollar did fall - around 40% between the dotcom bust and the global financial crisis - and the twin deficits were a factor. Indeed, when the twin deficits really exploded in 2008 as the government and Fed fought to prevent another Great Depression, the dollar actually rose 25%. "Twin deficits are inherently unsustainable – for Treasuries and the dollar - unless there is a shift towards a deflationary environment that stimulates demand for sovereign debt instruments," Costa said. Persistently wide twin deficits will test the appetite to use the dollar as the savings currency of choice for investors and countries around the world.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Mark Carney, Tavi, Costa, Meera Chandan, Octavia Popescu, Bill, Jamie McGeever, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: REUTERS, Fed, Reuters, Bank of England, Crescat, Treasuries, United, Office, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO , Florida, U.S, Britain, United States, Americas, Washington

July 27 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The Nasdaq fell only 0.1% and 'big tech' fell less than 1% but that masked huge moves in some shares which added or wiped out tens of billions of dollars of market cap. Back in Asia, a sense of realism returned over the expected measures from Beijing to revitalize the economy. After outsized gains on Tuesday - a 14% surge in property stocks - major indices in China and Hong Kong closed in the red. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Jerome Powell, Dow Jones, Deepa Babington Organizations: Federal, Fed, ECB, Bank of, U.S, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Meta, Facebook, Investors, Central Bank, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, U.S, Beijing, China, Hong Kong, Australia

July 26 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. China's blue chip equity index rose nearly 3% for its best day this year, and Chinese property stocks surged 8% for their biggest rise this year too. Hong Kong's main property stocks index jumped 14%, the biggest rise since March last year. The mainland property index is still down 13% this year and the Hong Kong-based index is down 25%. All this comes ahead of the first of three major central bank policy decisions this week - the Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates 25 basis points on Wednesday, followed by a similar move from the European Central Bank on Thursday and the Bank of Japan holding the line on Friday.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, It's Organizations: MSCI's, Big Tech, Microsoft, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Thomson, Reuters Locations: China, Hong, Hong Kong, MSCI's Asia, Japan, Asia, Australia, Singapore

July 25 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. BI won't want the rupiah to strengthen too much because exports will suffer, but won't want potential inflation-boosting weakness either. On a year-on-year basis, GDP was expected to have expanded 0.8% in the April-June period, down slightly from 0.9% in January-March. On a quarterly basis, however, Asia's fourth largest economy is expected to have expanded 0.5%, up from 0.3% growth in the first quarter. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Tuesday:- Indonesia interest rate decision- South Korea GDP (Q2)- Hong Kong trade (June)By Jamie McGeever;Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Dalian Wanda, Monday's, Xi Jinping, Wall, Dow, Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson Organizations: U.S, Garden, Dalian, Communist Party, Bank Indonesia, BI, China, Thomson, Reuters Locations: China, Beijing, Indonesia, South Korea, Asia, Korea, Hong Kong

ORLANDO, Florida, July 23 (Reuters) - Hedge funds have ramped up their bearish dollar bets by more than $7 billion in a week, and are now sitting on their biggest net short dollar position in over two years. Foreign exchange speculators' long sterling position are now the biggest on record, although decent interest in shorting the pound means the overall net long position remains at a 16-year high, not an all-time peak. It is the most substantial bet on the dollar falling since March 2021, and marks the 37th week in a row funds have been net short. The value of funds' short dollar position is big, but not extreme. Earlier this month, their net short position was the largest in five and a half years.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, Futures, ECB, Thomson, Reuters Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Foreign, That's

July 24 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. If that wasn't enough, purchasing managers index figures will give the first indications on how economies performed in July. Dovish signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell would probably boost risk appetite and lift global stocks markets. The dollar and U.S. bond yields would likely come under downward pressure too - often bullish triggers for Asian and emerging markets. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has signaled his resolve to maintain massive monetary stimulus, despite inflation persistently outpacing the bank's 2% target.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Jerome Powell, Kazuo Ueda, Japan PMIs, Australia PMIs, Diane Craft Organizations: Communist Party, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, Microsoft, Investors, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, China, Beijing, Australian, Malaysia, Singapore, Malaysian, Japan, Australia

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