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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEcon data is now very consistent with a soft landing, says Goldman's HatziusJan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs chief economist and head of global investment research, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss how to frame Friday's jobs report, Hatzius' thoughts on the Federal Reserve's moves next year, and how the Fed looks at excluding current events.
Persons: Goldman's Hatzius Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal
As remote work remains popular, office buildings will become increasingly empty. Goldman Sachs estimated vacant office space will jump by 267 million square feet over the next decade and beyond. So far, that has yet to translate to big declines in office space that's rented out under a lease agreement. The forecast comes as some high-profile companies start taking a harder line on remote work. Even video-conferencing company Zoom, which is a key enabler of remote work, has asked some employees to come back to the office regularly.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman Organizations: Service, Goldman, Goldman Sachs Global Investment, Meta Locations: expirations, Wall, Silicon
FILE PHOTO: A construction site of residential buildings by Chinese developer Country Garden is pictured in Tianjin, China August 18, 2023. REUTERS/Tingshu Wang/File PhotoThe expected 0% year-on-year growth in home prices compared with a 1.4% gain tipped in the previous forecast in May, a Reuters poll of 12 economists conducted from Aug. 16-25 showed. “It is estimated that every one percentage point decline in property investment may drag down the GDP growth rate by 0.1 percentage points,” said analyst Ma Hong at Zhixin Investment Research Institute. China observers are sceptical that the property sector could turn a corner in the near term despite Beijing’s support measures. The government has suspended publishing data on youth unemployment, which has hit record highs in what analysts say is partly a symptom of regulatory crackdowns on big employers in real estate and other industries.
Persons: Tingshu Wang, Wang Xingping, Fitch Bohua, , Ma Hong, Gao Yuhong, Xing Zhaopeng Organizations: REUTERS, Fitch, Authorities, Zhixin Investment Research Institute Locations: BEIJING, Tianjin, China,
A construction site of residential buildings by Chinese developer Country Garden is pictured in Tianjin, China August 18, 2023. The expected 0% year-on-year growth in home prices compared with a 1.4% gain tipped in the previous forecast in May, a Reuters poll of 12 economists conducted from Aug. 16-25 showed. "It is estimated that every one percentage point decline in property investment may drag down the GDP growth rate by 0.1 percentage points," said analyst Ma Hong at Zhixin Investment Research Institute. China observers are sceptical that the property sector could turn a corner in the near term despite Beijing's support measures. The government has suspended publishing data on youth unemployment, which has hit record highs in what analysts say is partly a symptom of regulatory crackdowns on big employers in real estate and other industries.
Persons: Tingshu Wang, Wang Xingping, Fitch Bohua, Ma Hong, Gao Yuhong, Xing Zhaopeng, Liangping Gao, Ryan Woo, Shuyan Wang, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: REUTERS, Fitch, Authorities, Zhixin Investment Research Institute, Thomson Locations: Tianjin, China, BEIJING
Nvidia has captured the hearts of investors, but at least one market veteran refuses to show the artificial intelligence pioneer any love. "Nvidia is the stock market's new Tesla, where the market blindly assigns a ridiculously high and unrealistic valuation," Trainer wrote in an email to Insider on August 24. Trainer continued: "Investors should not be chasing Nvidia stock, as it is way too expensive. "While we recognize that artificial intelligence is an exciting technology and Nvidia is a great company, investors must pay attention to a company's valuation," Trainer wrote. To live up to its current valuation, Nvidia would have to increase revenue by 20% per year for the next 25 years, the investment research firm CEO wrote.
Persons: Nvidia's, David Trainer, We're, SIMO Organizations: Nvidia, Bank of America, Rosenblatt Securities, KLA Corporation, Motion Technology Locations: Santa Clara, Nashville
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCharles Schwab's Kevin Gordon: Investing based on a Fed pause isn't a good strategyKevin Gordon, Charles Schwab senior investment research manager, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss rising yields and what it means for the bond market.
Persons: Charles Schwab's Kevin Gordon, Kevin Gordon, Charles Schwab
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBig tech is playing around with regulators and winning, says GlobalDataCyrus Mewawalla, Head of Investment Research at GlobalData, discusses Microsoft's restructured proposal to acquire Activision Blizzard.
Persons: GlobalData Cyrus Mewawalla, Microsoft's Organizations: Investment Research, GlobalData, Activision Blizzard
US stocks still have further room to run, according to a Wednesday note from GlobalData TS Lombard. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe bull market in stocks that started earlier this year isn't ending anytime soon, according to a Wednesday note from GlobalData TS Lombard. TS Lombard highlighted eight charts to back up its bullish view on the US stock market. The Fed is approaching the top of its hiking cycle, although markets discounting early cuts may be too optimistic," TS Lombard said. Sentiment has largely normalized now; and the S&P 500, if anything, appears oversold today," TS Lombard said.
Persons: Andrea Cicione, Skylar Koning, Lombard, Disinflation, GlobalData Organizations: GlobalData, Lombard
Watch CNBC's full interview with Goldman Sachs' Alec Phillips
  + stars: | 2023-08-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Goldman Sachs' Alec PhillipsAlec Phillips, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research chief U.S. political economist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the likelihood of a government shutdown, the Treasury's attempt to raise funds through bond issuances and partisan disagreements about government spending.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Alec Phillips Alec Phillips, Goldman Organizations: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA government shutdown is more likely than not, says Goldman Sachs' Alec PhillipsAlec Phillips, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research chief U.S. political economist, joins 'The Exchange' to discuss the likelihood of a government shutdown, the Treasury's attempt to raise funds through bond issuances, and partisan disagreements about government spending.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Alec Phillips Alec Phillips, Goldman Organizations: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Some investors are betting on rate cuts as soon as early next year, perhaps on expectations that the economy might soon deteriorate. If unemployment spikes because of higher interest rates, for example, the Fed would likely cut rates to stem job losses under its mandate of maximum employment. The Fed’s tough talk has rattled the bond market, helping push up long-dated yields. In addition to the possibility of cutting rates because of an economic downturn, the Fed could also cut rates if inflation slows too much. “If the Fed sees that inflation goes below the 2% target, they could start decreasing interest rates, but I don’t think they are going to start decreasing interest rates until that happens,” said Eugenio Alemán, chief economist at Raymond James.
Persons: there’s, Rather, Austan Goolsbee, Mike Hackett, they’ve, , Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, Melissa Brown, China’s ‘ Lehman, Laura, Mengchen Zhang, Technology —, Zhongrong, Read, Thomas Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Kansas City Fed’s, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Federal, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Treasury, Nationwide, CNN, Fed, Service, KBC Corporation, Xianheng, Science, Technology, National Association of Realtors, Body, Nvidia, Kansas City, Global, US Commerce Department, Labor Department, Central Bank Locations: Washington, , China, BJ’s, Abercrombie, Kansas
New York CNN —After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in July to the highest level in 22 years, Wall Street’s focus is on whether September will bring another rate hike. But does it really matter whether the Fed raises or pauses rates next month? Before the Bell: Does it matter whether the Fed raises rates in September by another quarter point or holds steady instead? And, that earnings can grow even in an environment where interest rates are back to levels that they have been in for the past couple of decades. Year-over-year comparisons should improve, but I think investors want to see that.
Persons: Bell, Ed Yardeni, they’ve, Moody’s, they’re, We’ve, Fitch, CNN’s Kathleen Magramo, Women Jan Tinetti, Tinetti, Read, CNN’s Olesya Dmitracova, Darren Morgan, , Jonathan Moyes Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Employers, Traders, Yardeni, Women, Labour, Organisation for Economic Co, Development, Gross, National Statistics, Wealth Locations: New York, New Zealand
A key signal suggests monthly job growth could plummet in the coming months, according to Ned Davis Research. The research firm highlighted that a slow-down in temporary hiring services is the canary in the coal mine. The investment research firm highlighted a key leading indicator that is warning of a potential slowdown in hiring, and that's the hiring activities of temporary hiring services. And the two most recent job reports also came in below economist estimates, ending a more than year-long streak of better-than-expected job growth. Other factors that could limit future job growth includes tighter lending standards and a potential strike by the UAW and other unions.
Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, UAW, Employers
He told Insider he's making the move to help combat cybersecurity on a broader scale. Igor Tsyganskiy, chief technology officer and president, is leaving the world's largest hedge fund after seven years, Insider has learned. Prior to Bridgewater, Tsyganskiy ran database.com, a division of Salesforce.com, and was the cofounder of Tealeaf Technologies, which was sold to IBM. Bell recently told Insider that AI would give Microsoft the upper hand to "finally turn the tables on the attackers." "Basically, end-to-end strategy on how Microsoft approaches the cybersecurity sector is my job," Tsyganskiy told Insider.
Persons: Igor Tsyganskiy, Tsyganskiy, Greg Jensen, Bridgewater's, Oliver Radwan, Kevin Brennan, Ray Dalio, Nir Bar Dea, Bridgewater, Charlie Bell, Bell Organizations: Bridgewater, Microsoft, LinkedIn, Tealeaf Technologies, IBM, Web Services Locations: Bridgewater, Bay Area, Connecticut, Westport , Connecticut, Salesforce.com
NEW YORK, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs' (GS.N) global head of commodities research Jeff Currie, a prominent analyst who accurately predicted a surge in commodity prices in the 2000s, is retiring, according to a memo seen by Reuters. Julian Salisbury, chief investment officer of its asset and wealth management arm, is departing to join investment firm Sixth Street, according to an announcement last month. His forecast was borne out in what would become known as the commodities supercycle, during which crude oil surged to record highs in 2008. More recently, Currie revived his prediction for another supercycle fuelled by pandemic stimulus measures and rebounding economic activity. Currie joined Goldman in 1996 and was promoted to managing director in 2002, then partner in 2008.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jeff Currie, Currie, Julian Salisbury, Jan Hatzius, Goldman, Dina Powell McCormick, Lisa Opoku, Saeed Azhar, Lananh Nguyen, Sam Holmes Organizations: Reuters, Sixth, Reuters Commodities Summit, University of Chicago's Energy Policy Institute, Goldman, Thomson
The National Bank of Canada logo is seen outside of a branch in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, February 14, 2019. National Bank said in a statement it will acquire the C$1 billion ($752 million) loan portfolio made up of technology, life science and global fund banking sectors. National Bank already has made a number of bets in the tech space in Canada investing in fintech firms such as KOHO, Synctera and Flinks over the years. Veritas Investment Research analyst Nigel D'Souza said the deal does not restrict National Bank from acquiring Laurentian Bank (LB.TO), but that deal was now less likely. "We continue to view National Bank as the best fit among the Big Six banks for Laurentian," D'Souza said.
Persons: Chris Wattie, Michael Denham, Denham, Tuyen Vo, Nigel D'Souza, D'Souza, Jaiveer Singh, Will Dunham, Krishna Chandra Eluri, Shilpi Majumdar Organizations: National Bank of Canada, REUTERS, National Bank, National Bank's Technology, Innovation Banking, Bank, Veritas Investment Research, Laurentian Bank, Big, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada, U.S, Silicon, Bengaluru
"It seems like they do a lot to try to make it seem like they are the party for young Black men or Black men as a whole, but they don't back it with anything. The vast majority of Black voters, including men, are still expected to choose Biden over a Republican. Black men and women under the age of 50 voted Republican in similar numbers, the poll showed. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted July 11-17 found 18% of Black Americans would pick Trump over Biden in a hypothetical matchup, compared to 46% who favored Biden, including about one in four Black men, compared to about one in seven Black women. Compared with Black women, Black men were more likely to say they would back a presidential candidate that supported abortion restrictions and increased police funding to fight crime.
Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, lurch, Mekonnen, Biden's, I'm, LeLann Evans, Evans, Michael McDonald, Republican Donald Trump's, Trump, Terrance Woodbury, Woodbury, Julian Silas, Silas, Kamala Harris, Jaime Harrison, Harris, Tracy King, Andre Russell, Trevor Hunnicutt, Jarrett Renshaw, Jason Lange, Eric Cox, Heather Timmons, Alistair Bell Organizations: . Army, White House, Democratic Party, Democratic, White, Reuters, U.S, Republican, Black, Biden, Nashville City Council, Democrats, Pew Research, University of Florida, Republicans, HIT, Edison Research, Federal Reserve, Democratic National Committee, Culture, NAACP, Thomson Locations: Georgia, Black, South Carolina, Philadelphia, Atlanta , Milwaukee, Detroit, Pennsylvania , Michigan, Washington, Chicago, U.S, New Orleans
This analogy was the segue into Goldman Sachs' 2023 mid-year investment outlook. "Do not change lanes unnecessarily," said Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, head of the investment strategy group and chief investment officer of wealth management at the firm. Historically, when stocks draw down 20% or more, returns are favorable in the following 12 and 24 months, she added. "What is really fascinating when you've had this kind of narrow breadth, the market actually continues to rally," Mossavar-Rahmani said. On the one hand, private sector balance sheets remain healthy, prices in the global housing market remain stable due to an undersupply, and there has been a gradual recovery in the services sector.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Robert Tibshirani, Sharmin, Jan Hatzius, you've, Rahmani, Hatzius, it's, Julian Salisbury, Salisbury Organizations: Drivers Locations: China, Salisbury, Banks
3M posted $7.99 billion in revenue, beating analysts' estimates of $7.87 billion, according to Refinitiv. Elsewhere, RTX reported second-quarter earnings that topped Wall Street expectations, posting $1.29 in adjusted earnings per share on $18.32 billion in revenue. The home appliance company posted revenue of $4.79 billion, lower than the consensus estimate of $4.82 billion, according to Refinitiv. It did beat on earnings expectations, reporting adjusted earnings of $4.21 per share, higher than the $3.76 estimate. The company notched adjusted earnings per share of $3.29, while analysts estimated $2.70 per share.
Persons: Refinitiv, RTX, it's, Biogen, Morgan Stanley, FactSet, General Motors, Invesco, Andrew Schlossberg, BTIG, Sherwin, Williams, Yun Li, Samantha Subin, Sarah Min, Tanaya Macheel, Brian Evans, Alex Harring Organizations: Spotify, Alaska Air, Pratt & Whitney, Airbus, General, GE, Whirlpool, Revenue, LG Electronics, LG Energy, GM, Refinitiv, UPS, Teamsters, Xerox –, Xerox, Packaging Corp, America, Secure
Fundstrat said a bitcoin ETF from BlackRock could drive a boost in daily demand for the crypto token. If the SEC approves a bitcoin ETF from BlackRock, it could lead to the largest ETF launch ever. A bitcoin ETF could add an extra $100 million in incremental daily demand for bitcoin, according to the note. "This [bitcoin ETF launch] would bring daily demand to $125 million, while daily supply is only $25 million. "We anticipate [a bitcoin ETF] would attract new investors and generate increased demand for bitcoin," Farrell said.
Persons: Fundstrat, halvening, Sean Farrell, Farrell Organizations: SEC, ETF, Service, bitcoin, BlackRock, Fidelity, Chartered Locations: BlackRock, Wall, Silicon
And when analysts adjust future earnings estimates higher, share prices often move higher as well. And as Sam Burns knows, capitalizing on shifting analyst expectations can be a profitable investing strategy. In an interview with Insider, Burns explained that he's created a system that tracks analysts' estimates heading into earnings season. Stocks in the top 10% of ESS rankings are roughly three times more likely to see higher analyst estimates in the next month than stocks in the bottom 10%. And with those higher estimates often comes higher price movements.
Persons: Sam Burns, Burns, Ohsung Kwon, Kwon, he's, it's, Organizations: Mill, Research, Wall, Bank of America, Big Tech, Fed, Momentum
The five-year old "unbundling" rule is part of an EU securities law known as MiFID II that Britain kept after Brexit. A report headed by Hogan Lovells lawyer Rachel Kent recommends giving the "optionality" to rebundle, given it is allowed on Wall Street, and the EU is also reviewing the rule. The report recommends creating a new research platform to promote, source and distribute research on smaller companies looking to list. "The recommendations in Rachel Kent’s Independent Research Report will be accepted by the Government... It also sets the path for potentially removing the unbundling rules," the finance ministry said in a statement.
Persons: Hogan Lovells, Rachel Kent, Kent, Rachel, Huw Jones, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Union, Britain, Government, Financial, Authority, FCA, Thomson Locations: Britain, London, EU
UK set to ease stock market listing rules
  + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Hunt will also seek to roll back a European Union-era securities law, Treasury said. UK is set to approve recommendations in Rachel Kent's Independent Research Report, paving the way for a new "Research Platform" to provide a one-stop-shop for firms looking for research experts, the statement added. UK had last year announced the launch of the Investment Research Review - an independent review of financial services investment research and its contribution to UK capital markets competitiveness, headed by Kent. The approval also sets the way for potentially removing unbundling rules – an inherited EU law that requires brokers to charge a separate fee for research. "We will not countenance tax cuts if they make the battle against inflation harder," the newspaper quoted Hunt as saying.
Persons: Jeremy Hunt, UK's, Hunt, Rachel, Hogan Lovells, Rishi Sunak's, Nilutpal, Chris Reese, David Gregorio, Shri Organizations: Finance, UK's Treasury, Treasury, Investment Research, Financial Times, Aviva Plc, Phoenix Group Holdings, City of London Corporation, FT, Thomson Locations: Union, Kent, Bengaluru
New Goldman Sachs' report reveals historic underfunding at HBCUs
  + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNew Goldman Sachs' report reveals historic underfunding at HBCUsGizelle George-Joseph, Chief Operating Officer of the Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Division, and CNBC’s Sharon Epperson discuss why historically black colleges and universities in the U.S. remain underfunded.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Gizelle George, Joseph, Goldman, CNBC’s Sharon Epperson Organizations: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Division Locations: U.S
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), June 29, 2023. U.S. stock futures were little changed Sunday night, as traders prepared for the second half of what's already been a stellar year on Wall Street. Tesla shares were little changed in overnight trading after the electric vehicle maker reported delivery and production numbers that beat analysts' expectations. Recent data showing a resilient U.S. economy despite higher rates also lifted investor sentiment, easing some fears on Wall Street of a long-awaited downturn. Investors will pore over the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global manufacturing PMI data for June Monday morning ahead of Friday's keynote jobs report.
Persons: Stocks, Mark Hackett, Nationwide's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Futures, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Independence, Manufacturing PMI, P Global Locations: technicals
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