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☆ IMF chief: Growth will bottom out in 2023 and bounce back next year
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Managing Director of International Monetary Fund IMF Kristalina Georgieva attends a session during the World Economic Forum WEF 2022 Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, May 25, 2022. The International Monetary Fund's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told CNBC Tuesday that the days of her institution giving regular global growth downgrades are nearly over. "I don't see a downgrade now, but growth in 2023 will slow down," Georgieva said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its growth forecast three times since October 2021. "The China growth rates are not going to return to the days when China delivered about 40% of global growth, this is not going to happen," Georgieva said, with the country having experienced below-average growth for the first time in 40 years in 2022.

☆ Indian shares eye muted start to 2023 on weak cues, oil rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Indian shares were set to kick-start 2023 on a muted note due to higher oil prices and a surge in COVID-19 cases in China. Oil prices rose on year-end holiday travel. Higher oil prices hurt oil-importing countries like India, where crude constitutes the bulk of the country's import bill. ** HG Infra Engineering (HGIN.NS): Co declared as L-1 bidder by Delhi Metro Rail Corporation for project worth 4.12 bln rupees. ($1 = 82.7170 Indian rupees)Reporting by Bharath Rajeswaran in Bengaluru; editing by Uttaresh.VOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Stocks buoyant while darker forecasts gather on the horizon
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.06%, just short of an index of global shares, which climbed 0.16%. The pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) climbed 0.6%, retracing little of the nearly 12% it lost in 2022, bludgeoned by central banks' aggressive monetary policy tightening. Elsewhere, the dollar edged almost 0.2% higher against a basket of major currencies, while the pound and euro fell 0.4% and 0.2% respectively. The benchmark 10-year yield climbed around 27 basis points (bps) last week and over 200 bps last year, ending 2022 around 3.88%. Germany's 10-year bond yield fell 8.4 bps to 2.47%, after hitting its highest since 2011 at 2.57% on Friday.

☆ Stocks edge higher as darker forecasts loom
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-02 | by ( Nell Mackenzie | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.04%, just short of an index of global shares, which climbed 0.21%. "Europe is taking the latest round of PMIs well enough, as the final readings help to confirm the view (hope?) DOLLAR STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN STRENGTHElsewhere, the dollar edged almost 0.1% higher against a basket of major currencies, while the pound and euro fell 0.4% and 0.3% respectively. Germany's 10-year bond yield fell 13 bps to 2.43%, after hitting its highest since 2011 at 2.57% on Friday. Reporting by Nell Mackenzie Additional reporting Dhara Ranasinghe Editing by Mark Potter and Barbara LewisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Hunger-struck Africa needs liquidity, debt relief
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Joe Bavier | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"It's not just been these macroeconomic fallouts, but also, heart-wrenchingly, the food insecurity issue," said Abebe Aemro Selassie, director of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) Africa Department. "Food insecurity has shot up like never before." The number of East Africans facing acute food insecurity has jumped by 60% to 82 million in the past year. But Razia Khan, Middle East and Africa Chief Economist at Standard Chartered Bank, questioned whether simply providing more liquidity would be enough. Easing their debt burdens would allow governments to focus on pressing problems including food insecurity.

☆ Brazil's Goldfajn elected to replace ousted IDB president
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON, Nov 20 (Reuters) - The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) said on Sunday its board of governors has elected Brazil's Ilan Goldfajn as president of the financial institution, after Mauricio Claver-Carone, the first American to lead it, was ousted over ethics violations. Headquartered in Washington, the IDB is a key investor in Latin America and the Caribbean, responsible for $23.4 billion in financial commitments in 2021 and hundreds of infrastructure, health and tourism projects. In a statement, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen congratulated Goldfajn and said the United States stands by the IDB as the region's premier development finance institution. "We are counting on President Goldfajn to lead this organization to be an engine of change and progress for our neighbors across Latin America and the Caribbean," Yellen said. Brazil's outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro nominated Goldfajn, the former president of the country's central bank and currently the head of the International Monetary Fund's Western Hemisphere department.

☆ Brazil's Goldfajn elected to replace ousted IDB president, sources say
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Nov 20 (Reuters) - The governors of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) have elected Brazil's Ilan Goldfajn as president of the financial institution after Mauricio Claver-Carone, the first American to lead it, was ousted over ethics violations, two sources told Reuters. Headquartered in Washington, the IDB is a key investor in Latin America and the Caribbean, responsible for $23.4 billion in financial commitments in 2021 and hundreds of infrastructure, health and tourism projects. The scandalous ouster of Claver-Carone had made it more likely that the next candidate would hail from Latin America, following prior precedent. Brazil's outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro nominated Goldfajn, the former president of the country's central bank and currently the head of the International Monetary Fund's Western Hemisphere department. IDB shareholders have underscored the importance of rebuilding trust in the institution after Claver-Carone's rocky, nearly two-year tenure.

☆ IMF backs UK plan for $65 billion of budget tightening
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( David Milliken | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

LONDON, Nov 18 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund's managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, said she had spoken with British finance minister Jeremy Hunt on Friday to welcome his latest plan for 55 billion pounds ($65 billion) of budget tightening. "It strikes the right balance between fiscal responsibility and protecting growth and vulnerable households," Georgieva said in a brief statement on social media. loadingThe IMF had criticised Hunt's predecessor, Kwasi Kwarteng, for previous budget plans in September which included 45 billion pounds of unfunded tax cuts. Hunt's plan represents tax rises and spending cuts equivalent to 2% of gross domestic product by the 2027-28 financial year. ($1 = 0.8412 pounds)Reporting by David Milliken; Editing by Alistair Smout and James DaveyOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Senegal reform implementation slower than expected - IMF staff
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Nov 16 (Reuters) - Senegal has made "significant progress" in implementing structural reforms but those have come at a slower pace than anticipated, the International Monetary Fund's staff said on Wednesday. Performance of the reform program was "broadly satisfactory" and "the economy should rebound in 2023 with a strong pickup in growth to 8.3% on the back of a temporary boost from oil and gas production and absent further escalation of the war in Ukraine," Edward Gemayel, leader of the IMF mission to Senegal, said in a statement. He added that delays in payments of a cash transfer scheme for the poorest households should be addressed urgently, and that it is important for authorities to "convincingly commit" to start phasing out energy subsidies in 2023 and unwind them by 2025. Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; editing by Jonathan OatisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Sri Lanka announces budget aimed at clinching IMF deal, sees recovery by end-2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Uditha Jayasinghe | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

COLOMBO, Nov 14 (Reuters) - The crisis-hit Sri Lankan economy can turnaround by end of 2023 if budget policies, which are not limited to the International Monetary Fund's recommendations, are followed, President Ranil Wickremesinghe said in the budget speech on Monday. IMF recommendations have only been looked at to stabilise the economy, Wickremesinghe, who is also the country's finance minister, told parliament, delivering the first annual budget since he took office in July. The budget is likely to include specific measures aimed at reducing the government's deficit and persuading the International Monetary Fund to provide a desperately needed bailout package. Wickremesinghe said the government plans to reduce debt to less than 100% of GDP over the medium term and achieving economic growth of 7%. Reporting by Uditha Jayasinghe; Writing by Swati Bhat; Editing by Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ U.S. may skirt recession in 2023, Europe not so lucky - Morgan Stanley
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

TOKYO, Nov 14 (Reuters) - Britain and the euro zone economies are likely to tip into recession next year, Morgan Stanley said, but the United States might make a narrow escape thanks to a resilient job market. "Risks are to the downside," the reports said, projecting the global economy to grow by 2.2% next year, lower than the International Monetary Fund's latest 2.7% growth estimate. read moreNext year, Morgan Stanley predicts a sharp split between developed economies "in or near recession" while emerging economies "recover modestly" but said an overall global pickup would likely remain elusive. Central banks across the globe have raised interest rates this year to curb raging inflation, and in the United States, Morgan Stanley predicted the Federal Reserve to keep rates high in 2023 as inflation remains strong after peaking in the fourth quarter of this year. "The cumulative effect of tight policy in 2023 spills over into 2024, resulting in two very weak years," the report added.

The stakes are high as it potentially affects the future use and effectiveness of extraordinary monetary policies such as bond-buying 'quantitative easing' (QE) and questions the wider political independence of central bank policymaking. The European Central Bank, Bank of England and U.S. Federal Reserve are all - to differing degrees - now facing a backwash from years of policy-driven but lucrative balance sheet expansion. As they lift interest rates, that balance sheet burns a hole in their pockets - or more particularly the pockets of their governments long used to windfalls coming the other way. That will surely climb as the BoE is expected to at least double its policy rate, the rate paid on bank reserves, by May. G4 central bank balance sheetsThe easy-money era is overReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ EXCLUSIVE Vietnam may widen dong trading band again to conserve FX reserves - source
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

HANOI, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Vietnam is preparing to loosen its tight leash on the dong currency, including possibly widening its trading band with the U.S. dollar again, in order to conserve its shrinking currency reserves, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said on Wednesday. The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has intervened to defend the currency, although it rarely discloses FX reserves data or the amount of dollars spent. Widening the band, which would allow the market to drive the currency lower without triggering so much FX reserves selling, was one possibility, the source said. Other measures to cushion the dong, without exhausting FX reserves, were also being discussed, he said, without providing further details. The source said the SBV was trying to conserve its dollars as the country's FX reserves had sunk to the International Monetary Fund's recommended level, which is at least three months of imports.

☆ Gold steady as tepid U.S. dollar counters rate-hike woes
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Gold prices were steady on Tuesday as the dollar faltered, although risks from looming aggressive interest hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve limited gains in zero-yielding bullion. The dollar index was flat in Asian hours, having fallen 1% overnight, while benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields also eased. Gold is highly sensitive to rising U.S. rates, which increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.22% to 939.10 tons on Monday. Spot silver rose 0.1% to $18.71 per ounce, platinum was 0.3% higher at $918.00 and palladium gained 0.4% to $2,008.97.

☆ IMF's Gopinath: Fed and ECB right to tighten policy - Handelsblatt
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BERLIN, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Inflation in the United States is "very stubborn" and the Federal Reserve should "stay the course" and tighten monetary policy or else lose credibility, said Gita Gopinath, the International Monetary Fund's first deputy managing director. read more"Inflation continues to be very stubborn," Gopinath said of the United States in comments to German business daily Handelsblatt published on Monday. Nevertheless, she said it would be right for the European Central Bank to "normalise its monetary policy by the end of the year and then tighten next year". Starting slowly initially then picking up pace in recent months, the ECB has been unwinding policy support all year and lifted rates by a combined 125 basis points at its past two meetings, the fastest pace of policy tightening on record. read moreRegister now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterWriting by Paul Carrel; Editing by Kim Coghill and Alex RichardsonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Analysis: G7 fails to reach intervention deal to ease pain of soaring dollar
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-16 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. With a strong push from Japan, finance leaders of the Group of Seven advanced economies included a phrase in a statement on Wednesday saying they will closely monitor "recent volatility" in markets. "Many countries saw the need for vigilance to the spill-over effect of global monetary tightening, and mentioned currency moves in that context. "I've said on many occasions that I think a market-determined value for the dollar is in America's interest. "It's impossible to reverse the yen's downtrend with solo intervention," said Daisaku Ueno, chief forex strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities.

☆ Brazil to nominate ex-central bank governor Goldfajn to run the Inter-American Development Bank
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-16 | by ( Marcela Ayres | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BRASILIA, Oct 16 (Reuters) - Brazil plans to nominate former central bank governor Ilan Goldfajn to head the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), a person familiar with the matter said on Sunday, as Latin America's largest economy seeks to secure its first presidency of the institution. The development bank will elect its next president on Nov. 20 after the ouster of Mauricio Claver-Carone in an ethics scandal. Currently head of the International Monetary Fund's Western Hemisphere department, Goldfajn led Brazil’s central bank under former President Michel Temer, before handing the reins to current chief Roberto Campos Neto in February 2019. Under Goldfajn’s tenure, the central bank began developing its Pix instant payment platform, which was launched under Campos Neto. After leaving the central bank, Goldfajn chaired the board of Credit Suisse in Brazil before joining the IMF.

☆ Analysis: As markets fret, Fed officials reject idea of rising financial stability risks
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Tobias Adrian, the International Monetary Fund's monetary and capital markets director,wrote on Tuesday that financial stability risks have risen "substantially." Fed officials have lifted the federal funds rate from near-zero levels in March to the current range of between 3.00% and 3.25%. Financial markets expect the Fed to raise the rate again by three-quarters of a percentage point at its next policy meeting in November. More rate rises are very likely after that, with central bankers penciling in a 4.6% federal funds rate by some point in 2023. Making financial conditions more restrictive is key to how monetary policy operates.

☆ ECB's Lagarde sticks to rate hikes as bond debate starts
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday singled out interest rate increases as the best tool to fight runaway inflation in the euro zone even as a debate about mopping up excess cash got underway. Trying to fight runaway prices, the ECB has raised its rate on bank deposits to 0.75%, promised more hikes and begun a debate about whittling down its 3.3-trillion-euro ($3.20 trillion) bond holdings - legacy of its fight against deflation in the last decade. Lagarde emphasized rate hikes as the ECB instrument of choice at present even as other policymakers began publicly debating how and when to stop reinvesting some of the proceeds from the debt the central bank had bought since 2015. Also speaking in Washington, Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot said the ECB needed at least two more rate hikes of up to 75 basis points each before reaching the neutral level, where it neither stimulates nor curbs the economy. Lagarde acknowledged the discussion about this so-called "quantitative tightening" had started and would continue.

☆ Further 20% fall in U.S. stocks ‘certainly possible,’ says IMF director
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A shift in investor sentiment could see a further 20% downside for U.S. stock markets, according to the International Monetary Fund's director of monetary and capital markets. Sentiment and risk premia have held up "pretty well" so far, leading to an "orderly tightening," he said Tuesday. Asked about a recent CNBC interview with Jamie Dimon, in which the JPMorgan chief executive said the S&P 500 could easily fall by another 20%, Adrian said it was "certainly possible." The U.S. Federal Reserve raised its funds rate to 3%-3.25%, the highest it has been since early 2008, in September as it attempts to cool 8.3% year-on-year inflation. The latest U.S. inflation figures are due Thursday.

We think the rebalancing must be done," Bailey said at an event organised by the Institute of International Finance. "My message to the funds involved and all the firms involved managing those funds: You've got three days left now. Bailey was keen to distinguish between the temporary, financial stability nature of the latest intervention and previous quantitative easing stimulus. HEAVY LOSSESInflation-linked gilts, typically held by pension funds and known in the market as linkers, suffered a massive sell-off on Monday as the end to the BoE's programme on Friday approached. Simeon Willis, chief investment officer of pension consultants XPS, said he had seen pension funds selling "across the board" to find liquidity.

Companies The World Bank Group FollowWASHINGTON, Oct 10 (Reuters) - The World Bank said on Monday it is launching a trust fund aimed at pooling public funds to provide grants for projects to reduce carbon emissions, including decommissioning coal-fired power plants. The Scaling Climate Action by Lowering Emissions (SCALE) fund will provide grants to developing countries as they deliver pre-agreed results in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, World Bank President David Malpass said in a LinkedIn post. SCALE will be the new umbrella trust fund for the bank's results-based climate finance activities. Malpass said the World Bank was in the process of capitalizing the new fund, with the aim of launching it at the COP27 climate change conference in Egypt in November. The World Bank did not identify a projected size for the new fund.

At the International Monetary Fund's last count in the first quarter of this year, almost 5% of the world's foreign currency reserves were denominated in sterling - a total of $625 billion dollars worth of sterling and sterling assets on a crude calculation from the $12.55 trillion total. The UK has a reserve currency so it can always issue debt – it's just a question of the right price." But what if that reserve currency position is threatened and foreign central banks balk at holding so much sterling in their national savings stashes? Seven of the world's top 10 reserve holding central banks are in Asia or the Middle East. UBS chart on its 2022 survey of world reserve managersThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

☆ IMF chief warns there will be 'people on the street' globally unless steps taken to ease inflation
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Emmet Lyons | Ken Olshansky | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

(CNN) There will be "people on the street" globally unless steps are taken to protect the most vulnerable from inflation, International Monetary Fund's (IMF) chief Kristalina Georgieva warned on Wednesday. "It is important to think that this compounded impact of multiple crises is already testing the patience and resilience of people. And if you don't take action to support the most vulnerable, there would be consequences: people on the street," IMF's Managing Director Georgieva told CNN's Christiane Amanpour. So we think of poor people first when we advocate for attacking inflation forcefully," Georgieva said. The IMF chief told Amanpour that events that have driven price increases—mainly the Omicron variant of Covid-19 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine—have "made inflation today our biggest enemy."

☆ In the war on recession, Uncle Sam wants YOU — to party, party, party
▼ + stars: | 2022-08-25 | by ( Desmond Lachman | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Eventually the slowing demand spreads out across the economy: lower wages, higher unemployment rates, less consumer spending, and fewer homebuyers. This conventional view on the inevitability of a recession is highly plausible and should not be dismissed lightly. This soaring demand for goods coupled with crippled supply led to a shortage of goods — and sent prices soaring. And while concerns about the economy and the possibility of a recession have increased, people have kept spending. But as price inflation of goods cools, the shift to spending on services can keep the economy going.

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