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The combined position had been reduced to 343 million barrels (11th percentile for all weeks since 2013), down from 579 million barrels (47th percentile) five weeks earlier. In the most recent week, there were continued sales of Brent (-6 million barrels), U.S. diesel (-7 million) and U.S. gasoline (-5 million) and no change in European gas oil. Chartbook: CFTC and ICE commitments of tradersFrom a fundamental perspective, the outlook for oil prices remains mixed. Production cuts by OPEC+, sluggish output growth from U.S. shale, and the eventual reopening of China’s economy are bullish for oil prices. From a positioning perspective, however, the balance of risks has clearly tilted towards the upside, especially in crude oil.

The combined position has been cut to just 358 million barrels (12th percentile for all weeks since 2013) down from 579 million barrels (47th percentile) on Nov. 8. Fund managers sold NYMEX and ICE WTI (-5 million barrels), Brent (-4 million), U.S. gasoline (-5 million), U.S. diesel (-11 million) and European gas oil (-5 million). The net position in U.S. diesel and European gas oil was cut to 49 million barrels (41st percentile) from 75 million barrels (62nd percentile) on Nov. 8. Bullish long positions outnumbered bearish short ones by a ratio of 2.92:1 (52nd percentile) down from 5.40:1 (81st percentile) four weeks earlier. The extremely low level of hedge fund positions in crude has created upside price risk if and when managers attempt to rebuild bullish positions.

☆ Oil up $2 a barrel on supply risks amid ongoing Keystone outage
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $73.17 a barrel, rising $2.15, or 3%. The potential of a prolonged outage of TC Energy Corp's Canada-to-U.S. Keystone crude oil pipeline helped turn prices around. Traders worried about how long it would take to clean up and restart the Keystone oil pipeline after more than 14,000 barrels of oil leaked last week, the largest U.S. crude oil spill in nearly a decade. The outage is expected to shrink supplies at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub, and delivery point for benchmark U.S. crude oil futures. "The emergent EU embargo on Russian crude... may add moderate upside energy price risks in the next few months.

Brent crude futures were down $2.18, or 2.6%, at $83.39 a barrel by 1:23 p.m. EST (1823 GMT). read moreThe news caused oil and stock markets to pare gains. The data challenges hopes that the Fed might slow the pace and intensity of its rate hikes amid recent signs of ebbing inflation. The Group of Seven (G7) countries and Australia last week agreed on a $60 a barrel price cap on seaborne Russian oil. At the same time, in a positive sign for fuel demand in the world's top oil importer, more Chinese cities eased COVID curbs over the weekend.

☆ Oil dips 1.5% ahead of OPEC+ meeting, EU Russian oil ban
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Brent crude futures settled down $1.31, a 1.5% drop, at $85.57 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell $1.24, or 1.5%, to $79.98 per barrel. Russian oil output could fall by 500,000 to 1 million bpd early in 2023 due to the European Union ban on seaborne imports from Monday, two sources at major Russian producers said. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the Russian oil price cap will be adjustable over time so that the union can react to market developments. The cap was designed to limit revenues to Russia while not resulting in an oil price spike.

Sales over the two most recent weeks totalled 149 million barrels, the fastest rate since early March, in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Similar to the week before, last week’s selling was concentrated in crude (-89 million barrels), specifically in Brent (-71 million barrels). Two-week crude sales totalled 137 million barrels, with Brent totalling 100 million barrels, according to position records published by ICE Futures Europe and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The number of crude positions, WTI as well as Brent, fell to just 306 million barrels (9th percentile for all weeks since 2013) down from 443 million barrels (40th percentile) on Nov. 8. The ratio of bullish long positions to bearish short ones fell to 3.28:1 (27th percentile) from 5.36:1 (62nd percentile) two weeks earlier.

☆ U.S. crude turns positive, Brent pares losses on output on OPEC+ rumors
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Nia Williams | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, will meet on Dec. 4. In October, OPEC+ agreed to reduce its output target by 2 million barrels per day through 2023. "Inventories are still near record lows and this probably increases the odds of an OPEC production cut." However, EU governments were split on the level at which to cap Russian oil prices, with the impact being potentially muted. The price cap is due to come into effect on Dec. 5 when an EU ban on Russian crude also takes effect.

☆ Oil turns positive in output rumours ahead of OPEC+ meeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Nia Williams | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

☆ Oil falls to near year's lows on China demand worries
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-28 | by ( Nia Williams | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

ET (1548 GMT), having slumped more than 3% to $80.61 earlier in the session for its lowest since Jan. 4. "Inventories are still near record lows and this probably increases the odds of an OPEC production cut." The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, will meet on Dec. 4. However, EU governments were split on the level at which to cap Russian oil prices, with the impact being potentially muted. The price cap is due to come into effect on Dec. 5 when an EU ban on Russian crude also takes effect.

Summary Brent, WTI fall for third consecutive weekEU delays talks on Russian oil price cap until next weekPoland seeks German support for EU sanctions on pipelineNEW YORK, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell 2% on Friday in thin market liquidity, closing a week marked by worries about Chinese demand and haggling over a Western price cap on Russian oil. Brent crude futures settled down $1.71, or 2%, to trade at $83.63 a barrel, having retraced some earlier gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down $1.66, or 2.1%, at $76.28 a barrel. This is starting to hit fuel demand, with traffic drifting down and implied oil demand around 1 million barrels per day lower than average, an ANZ note showed. Meanwhile, G7 and European Union diplomats have been discussing a Russian oil price cap between $65 and $70 a barrel, but an agreement has still not been reached.

☆ Oil slides over 3% on Russian price cap talks, U.S. gasoline build
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Arathy Somasekhar | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 3.1 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration, far exceeding the 383,000 barrel build that analysts had forecast. Prices were hit further by reports that the G7 price cap on Russian oil could be above the level it is trading. G7 nations are looking at a price cap on Russian seaborne oil in the range of $65-70/bbl, according to a European official on Wednesday. A senior U.S. Treasury official said on Tuesday that the price cap will probably be adjusted a few times a year. The news added to concerns about demand from top crude oil importer China, which has been grappling with a surge in COVID-19 cases, with Shanghai tightening rules late on Tuesday.

LONDON, Nov 21 (Reuters) - European traders are rushing to fill tanks in the region with Russian diesel before an EU ban begins in February, as alternative sources remain limited. The European Union will ban Russian oil product imports, on which it relies heavily for its diesel, by Feb. 5. Part of the influx comes as ICE Futures Europe bans low-sulphur gasoil of Russian origin ahead of EU sanctions. Russian gasoil can still arrive in ARA storage tanks in December, but it must be moved to other tanks from which no delivery can be made, according to ICE. In January 2022, 70,000 tonnes of gasoil were delivered through the Ice gasoil futures exchange's website shows.

ETNEW YORK, Nov 15 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Tuesday along with major stock indexes, after U.S. data signaled that inflation could be starting to subside, which would be a positive for oil demand. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.18, or 1.4%, to $87.05. "The inflation data was positive in a way. In U.S. supply, crude oil stocks are expected to have dropped by about 300,000 barrels in the week to Nov. 11, a Reuters poll showed on Monday ahead of reports from the American Petroleum Institute due at 4:30 p.m. Investment bank JPMorgan cut its quarterly and full-year forecasts for economic growth in China.

Mandatory credit Kyodo/via REUTERSSummarySummary Companies Oil prices rise to highest levels since late AugustWSJ: China weighs gradual Zero-COVID exit without timelineChina's crude oil imports rebound amid refinery rolloutsNEW YORK, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Monday, paring gains after rising to more than two-month highs, on mixed signals over China, the world's top crude importer, potentially relaxing its strict COVID-19 restrictions. Brent crude futures fell 65 cents to settle at $97.92 a barrel. Earlier in the session, they rose to a session high of $99.56 a barrel, the highest since Aug. 31. However, weighing on futures, Chinese health officials at the weekend reiterated their commitment to strict COVID containment measures. Meanwhile, China's imports and exports contracted unexpectedly in October, but its crude oil imports rebounded to the highest level since May.

The defaults, though less widespread than last year, have scrambled the coffee market, leaving traders reluctant to agree to forward sales for next year's crop or the one after. "We've been told to have less exposure with (Brazilian farmers). However, when farmers default, traders do not have the physical coffee to sell to offset the futures market. That's what happened in September, when Arabica coffee futures rose from around 2.16 cents per pound to 2.32 cents late in the month, a 7% increase. A lawyer working for one of the five largest coffee exporters in Brazil said the defaults concerned less than 10% of Brazil's total forward contracts.

Benchmark Brent crude futures were up 35 cents to $93.61 a barrel by 12:59 p.m. EDT (1659 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 71 cents to $85.29. The U.S. dollar index fell during afternoon trade, making dollar-denominated oil less expensive for other currency holders and helping to push prices higher. Further support came from comments by Saudi Arabia's energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, that energy stocks were being used as a mechanism to manipulate markets. U.S. crude oil inventories are expected to rise this week, which could limit price gains. Analysts polled by Reuters estimated on average that crude inventories rose by 200,000 barrels in the week to Oct. 21.

☆ Oil prices ease on Chinese demand data, stronger dollar
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Laila Kearney | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"The recent recovery in oil imports faltered in September," ANZ analysts said in a note, adding that independent refiners failed to utilise increased quotas as ongoing COVID-related lockdowns weighed on demand. Ongoing strength in the U.S. dollar, which was up again for part of the trading session following another suspected foreign exchange intervention by Japan, also posed problems for oil prices. read more A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for non-U.S. buyers. Oil prices regained some ground after data that showed U.S. business activity contracted for a fourth straight month in October, with manufacturers and services firms in a monthly survey of purchasing managers both reporting weaker client demand. "Such a release is likely to have only a modest influence (<$5/bbl) on oil prices", the bank said in a note.

☆ Oil prices steady on U.S. business activity, Chinese demand data
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Laila Kearney | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies U.S. business activity weakens again in October -S&P GlobalChina's Sept crude imports fall, fuel exports hit 15-mth highNEW YORK, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Oil prices steadied in choppy trade on Monday, as weakening U.S. business activity data eased expectations for more aggressive interest rate hikes, while data showing demand from China remained lacklustre in September limited prices. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery lost 34 cents, or 0.4%, to $84.71 a barrel. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"The recent recovery in oil imports faltered in September," ANZ analysts said in a note, adding that independent refiners failed to utilise increased quotas as ongoing COVID-related lockdowns weighed on demand. Oil prices regained some ground after data that showed U.S. business activity contracted for a fourth straight month in October, with manufacturers and services firms in a monthly survey of purchasing managers both reporting weaker client demand. "Such a release is likely to have only a modest influence (<$5/bbl) on oil prices", the bank said in a note.

☆ Oil gains on weaker U.S. business activity, but Chinese demand data weighs
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Laila Kearney | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SummarySummary Companies U.S. business activity weakens again in October -S&P GlobalNEW YORK, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Oil edged up in choppy trade on Monday, as weakening U.S. business activity data eased expectations for more aggressive interest rate hikes, while data showing demand from China remained lacklustre in September limited prices. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for December delivery gained 55 cents, or 0.7%, to $85.60 a barrel. Oil prices regained some ground after data that showed U.S. business activity contracted for a fourth straight month in October, with manufacturers and services firms in a monthly survey of purchasing managers both reporting weaker client demand. "Such a release is likely to have only a modest influence (<$5/bbl) on oil prices", the bank said in a note. U.S. energy firms added oil and natural gas rigs last week for the second week in a row as relatively high oil prices encourage firms to drill more, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said in a report.

Brent crude futures fell 3 cents to settle at $92.38 a barrel. read moreThe U.S. dollar index pared losses after the comments, weighing on oil prices. A stronger dollar reduces demand for oil by making the fuel more expensive for buyers using other currencies. "Harker is saying that the war on inflation has just begun," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. The announcement, however failed to ease oil prices, as official U.S. data showed that the SPR last week dropped to their lowest since mid-1984, while commercial oil stocks fell unexpectedly.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) <CLc1> for November, that is expiring on Thursday, was at $83.17 a barrel, up 35 cents, or 0.4%. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterU.S. crude inventories fell unexpectedly last week - down 1.7 million barrels, weekly government showed, against expectations for a build of 1.4 million barrels. SPR levels fell 3.6 million barrels to just over 405 million, the lowest since May 1984. The EU's sanctions on Russian crude and oil products will take effect in December and February, respectively. There were also some signs of resurgent Chinese oil demand, including private mega refiner Zhejiang Petrochemical Corp (ZPC) and state-run ChemChina receiving further import quotas.

☆ What Cramer is watching Monday — BofA nice beat and my informal poll says people hate the market
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

WFC price target hikes at BMO Capital and Piper Sandler. Citi lowers price target on American Airlines (AAL) to $15 per share from $16. Mizuho cuts price target on Dow Inc. (DOW) to $46 per share from $62, pricing is falling apart. RBC Capital cut price target on Datadog (DDOG) to $105 per share from $125, getting more conservative. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

A stronger dollar reduces demand for oil by making the fuel more expensive for buyers using other currencies. In U.S. supply, energy firms this week added eight oil rigs to bring the total to 610, their highest since March 2020, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said. read moreChina, the world's largest crude oil importer, has been fighting COVID-19 flare-ups after a week-long holiday. The country's infection tally is small by global standards, but it adheres to a zero-COVID policy that is weighing heavily on economic activity and thus oil demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Thursday cut its oil demand forecast for this and next year, warning of a potential global recession.

The upshot: The price of orange juice, which has already climbed to an all-time high of $2.90 per 12-ounce can because of soaring food inflation, could go even higher. "We’re factoring in a very tight [crop production] situation here," said Jack Scoville, vice president at PRICE Futures Group in Chicago. Tristan Wheelock / Bloomberg via Getty ImagesFlorida oranges serve as the feedstock for most orange juice produced in the U.S. He also predicted that more Americans will switch to Vitamin C supplements as the cost of orange juice begins to climb further. Both of those factors could ultimately prevent orange juice prices from rising faster, he said.

Hurricane Ian was set to produce significant damage to much of Florida's citrus crop as it tore through the central-southwest part of the state, threatening to send the price of orange juice higher. November orange juice futures contracts were trading as high as $1.92 per pound Wednesday before falling back to $186.55. "The amount of loss is going to be pretty significant," Scoville said. Depending on the season, more than 90% of America’s orange juice is made from Florida-grown oranges, according to state data. According to the Agriculture Department, cold storage stocks of orange juice were at lows not seen since at least 2019 heading into August.

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