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[1/2] The exterior of the Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building is seen in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 14, 2022. They expect the Fed to raise its target rate to 5.25%-5.5% at the July 25-26 meeting. And it's quite likely that if the Fed does hold off on rates it will prep markets for action later on. The last Fed forecasts released at the March meeting had penciled in a 5.1% stopping point for the federal funds rate target, where it is now. Each Fed policymaker's view of the appropriate year-end policy rate is depicted by an anonymous "dot" on a grid.

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The Bank of England in February removed its explicit guidance and tied decisions to inflation data. The Bank of Japan, by contrast, still battling to raise perennially weak inflation, has left the core part of its guidance intact with a pledge to "patiently" sustain loose policies. The European Central Bank says it has adopted a "meeting-by-meeting" approach with "a strong preference against returning to outright forward guidance on policy rates." If the projections show the policy rate moving up later this year, officials will likely face questions if they do as expected and hold rates steady at the June meeting. If the rate is not seen moving up, they will face questions about not being responsive to recent data showing strong inflation despite pledging to be "data dependent."

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But while the Fed in 2019 was asking "'is this as strong as the labor market can get?' Fed rate hikes could have "very significant, uneven short-term impacts" on the job market. So far headline payroll employment growth remains strong. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsWANTING IT BOTH WAYSFor now, though, the Fed might mark the pandemic labor rebound as essentially complete, despite the risks. The economy needs to create about 100,000 payroll jobs a month to keep pace with population growth.

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Since the release of their last economic projections in March, the unemployment rate has fallen and inflation has largely moved sideways. She expects the Fed to keep its policy rate steady this month "while hinting at potential further hikes," a way to compromise among different views and keep pressure on financial conditions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and others insist that sort of erratic path is not their base case. The intent, rather, is to reach a "sufficiently restrictive" policy rate and remain at that level until it is clear inflation is falling towards the Fed's 2% target. "I do think they are done" with rate increases, he said, but "I cannot rule out another hike in June."

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The number of unemployed people jumped by 440,000, the most since November 2010. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsYet the rise in Black unemployment in particular is something critics of Fed policy have been concerned could be a leading-edge sign that the job market was turning sour. Fast initial job losses among Black workers are a feature of U.S. downturns and recessions. Reuters GraphicsDespite the outsized job gains, the details of the report may suggest a labor market "normalizing" after the disruptions of the pandemic. "The fact is that the labor market is still very tight, aided by shortfalls in some service sectors, as well as by historic demographic trends" like population aging, Rieder said.

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The rate hike "skip" has now become jargon for an emerging compromise between concerns inflation is not yet controlled with fears the economy may slow sharply as banks pull back on credit. "I don't really see a compelling reason to pause," Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester said in an interview published Wednesday in the Financial Times. Jefferson acknowledged inflation remains "too high" and that "by some measures progress has been decelerating recently." While Jefferson does not expect a recession, he noted that there are reasons to be careful after 15 months in which the policy rate was raised by 5 percentage points. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao, Nick Zieminski and Daniel WallisOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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Meanwhile districts reported that the pace of inflation had slowed, with prices rising "moderately" and contacts in most parts of the country expecting a similar pace of price increases in the coming months. But many Fed policymakers since then have signaled they may rather wait before undertaking any further policy tightening. Fed policymakers have said credit conditions are a key input to their calculations for monetary policy-setting. About half of districts reported no change in economic activity in recent weeks, the report showed, while four reported small increases and two reported "slight to moderate declines." At the St. Louis Fed, banking contacts said loan demand had softened and they expected further weakening ahead.

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"The risks of doing too much or doing too little are becoming more balanced and our policy adjusted to reflect that," Powell said. Ahead of a June 13-14 policy meeting "we haven't made any decisions about the extent to which additional policy firming will be appropriate." U.S. policymakers remain on the fence about their upcoming rate decision, and Powell's appearance on Friday was a moment that could have provided clarity. But the central bank will still receive important jobs and inflation data in coming weeks that could sway the debate. If an actual U.S. debt default is the result, the central bank may even be pushed towards emergency steps to ease the burden on the economy.

WASHINGTON, May 19 (Reuters) - Wall Street, small businesses and potential homebuyers may all breath a sigh of relief if the Federal Reserve chooses not to raise interest rates at its policy meeting next month, as many traders and analysts expect. If an actual U.S. debt default is the result, the central bank may even be pushed towards emergency steps to ease the burden on the economy. "I would say it was a pause, but a pause could be a 'skip,' or it could be a hold," Bostic said. Data on inflation, jobs, and the banking industry since then have done little to clarify the situation, with nothing seeming to change very fast. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Dan Burns and Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Inflation "is still too high, and by some measures progress has been slowing," Jefferson said in comments prepared for delivery to the National Association of Insurance Commissioners. While his baseline forecast does not include recession, he said he expects job growth to slow and the unemployment rate possibly rise over time. Jefferson did not indicate a preference for holding rates steady or proceeding with further rate increases at the Fed's June meeting, when a rate pause is widely expected. He said, however, he would "consider all these factors" in the context of jobs and inflation data still to be released before the June 13-14 meeting. "There is considerable uncertainty about the magnitude of the impact on household spending and business investment, and this uncertainty complicates economic outlook forecasts," Jefferson said.

At the same time, he said the job market is showing an "unprecedented" break from past behavior with a steady drop in job openings without any rise in the unemployment rate. The big unknown is whether that continued job market health is consistent with inflation falling steadily from its current levels above 4% back to the Fed's 2% target. That could allow the job market to cool without as much of a rise in unemployment as might otherwise be the case. Economists and policymakers at this week's conference pointed to other factors adding to the case for a soft landing. But at this point the "uncertainty" about what's at work in the economy could, some officials feel, mask developments that are working in their favor.

Barkin said he remained open-minded on whether the Fed at its June 13-14 policy meeting should raise the benchmark policy rate for an 11th straight time or leave it at the current range between 5.00% and 5.25%. I do wonder whether we're not going to need more impact on demand to bring inflation down to where we need to go," Barkin said, laying out a potential case for further rate increases. Barkin said he is comfortable overall with the Fed's move earlier this month to a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach after having raised the policy rate by 5 percentage points since March 2022 in an effort to lower the highest inflation in 40 years. "I'm still seeing data that suggests a hot job market and enduring inflation," he said. "I continue to believe that inflation will last longer than perhaps market measures of inflation compensation would suggest.

But Fed officials on Monday said the jury is very much out. Bostic said businesses in his southeastern U.S. Fed district "are telling me we think you're close to overdoing it ... Investors have consistently bet that the central bank, due to some combination of recession or a faster-than-expected drop in inflation, will be cutting rates by later this year. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the central bank probably has "more work to do on our end, to try to bring inflation back down." In addition, he says the full impact of Fed rate hikes has yet to be felt.

Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsInvestors and analysts took the Labor Department report on the whole as supporting the prospect that the Fed would pause its rate increases at the June 13-14 meeting. The PCE, which is the Fed's preferred gauge for its 2% inflation target, has been running at more than twice that level. Continued readings like the ones in April could weaken the case for pausing rate hikes. That's how increases in its policy rate influence economic activity. FEDSPEAK: OngoingThe Fed's internal communications rules set a "blackout" period around each policy meeting.

"When you get into higher interest rates ... you look to your collateral," Rodeheaver said in an interview. "We are tightening on price and profitability ... That is going to slow lending a bit." "The economy has started to slow in an orderly fashion" in response to higher interest rates, Jefferson said, calling tighter credit conditions "part of the transmission mechanism of monetary policy." Powell, however, said he felt the impact of the credit shock "remains uncertain," and his own baseline outlook does not include a recession. Bank lending dipped about 1.7% in the two weeks following SVB's collapse, but has risen since then and recouped about a third of the decline.

☆ Fed's Jefferson says economy slowing in "orderly" manner
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

WASHINGTON, May 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is slowing in an "orderly fashion" that should allow inflation to decline even as growth continues, Fed Governor Philip Jefferson said on Tuesday. "The economy has started to slow in an orderly fashion...I am of the view that inflation will start to come down and the economy will have the opportunity to continue to expand," Jefferson said in comments to the Atlanta Black Chambers business group. But his remarks did indicate hope for a "soft landing" in which inflation cools without a dramatic drop in economic activity. Jefferson said that the recent tightening of credit standards by banks, reflected in a Fed survey released on Monday, was "typical" for where the U.S. is in the economic cycle and a "natural part" of the Fed's monetary tightening. Reporting by Howard SchneiderOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Banks tighten credit terms, see loan demand drop, Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

For small firms, conditions were slightly more stringent with a net 46.7% of banks saying credit terms were stiffer now vs 43.8% in the last survey. Banks reported that firms of all sizes were showing less demand for credit than three months earlier. But policymakers don't want the credit tightening to go so far as to cause a recession. One closely watched survey response, for example, is the net share of banks tightening commercial loan standards for large and middle-sized firms. The survey, with tightening standards a leading indicator of eventually falling loan volumes, has "historically helped determine whether a Fed tightening cycle leads to a hard or soft landing."

As a member of the Fed's Board of Governors a decade ago, Powell called certain possible debt default responses by the Fed "loathsome." Accepting defaulted securities as collateral for Fed loans, or swapping "good" federal debt already held by the Fed for impaired debt held by private investors, would be an extreme variation on the theme - yet one that may prove less "loathsome" than the alternative economic collapse some predict would follow a default. To a central bank, with no budget constraint and an elastic time horizon, it's just a matter of waiting out the politicians. Powell joined the Fed in 2012 from a think tank where he focused on debt and deficit issues. A debt default may pose another tough decision for a Fed chair who's motto could well be to never say never.

The path to the pause will roll out in marquee monthly data on the key topics of jobs and prices, but also weekly series tracking emerging concerns about the financial industry. Here's a guide to what's ahead:JOBS: Next release May 5The data calendar will let the Fed receive two monthly jobs reports, covering April and May, before its June 13-14 policy meeting. For the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the measure used to set the Fed's 2% inflation target, only the April report will be available. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsFEDSPEAK: OngoingThe Fed's internal communications rules set a "blackout" period around each policy meeting. The curtain of silence around the May meeting lifts on Friday, May 5, and Fed officials can speak publicly about their views through Friday, June 2.

Top of mind: inflation and the impact of a credit tightening Fed officials feel is still evolving in the wake of both higher interest rates and a financial sector rattled by the recent failure of three U.S. banks. "The case of avoiding a recession is in my view more likely than that of having a recession," Powell said. The shift in the Fed's approach was reflected in U.S. interest rate futures, which showed broad expectations for no hikes at either of the central bank's next two policy meetings. U.S. stocks initially held onto gains after the release of the Fed statement, but fell later in the afternoon and closed lower. "With the word 'determining' in place of 'anticipating,' (it) is essentially telling the markets that the Fed is now on pause."

The unanimous decision lifted the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate to the 5.00%-5.25% range, the tenth consecutive increase since March 2022. Because of that, Powell said it's too soon to say the rate hike cycle is over. Economic growth remains modest, but "recent developments are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation," the Fed said. The shift was reflected in U.S. interest rate futures prices, which showed broad expectations for no hikes at either of the Fed's next two meetings. "With the word 'determining' in place of 'anticipating' is essentially telling the markets that the Fed is now on pause."

Investors anticipate the U.S. central bank will follow through with a quarter-percentage-point rate hike at the end of its latest two-day policy meeting. The policy statement is due to be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), with Fed Chair Jerome Powell scheduled to speak to reporters half an hour later. But the new statement, and Powell's elaboration on it, will have to reconcile a set of risks that have grown more into conflict. Between that consensus and other problems that have intensified in the meantime, the Fed is likely to at least open the door to the prospect that this hike will be the last of the current tightening cycle, absent a future inflation surprise. Doing otherwise might hint that those projections had changed, a hawkish tilt towards more rate hikes that the Fed won't want to close off but also won't want to guarantee.

New data for March showed the ratio of job openings to the number of unemployed job seekers fell for the fourth consecutive month and hit the lowest level since October 2021. At roughly 1.64 to 1 the number remains far above the levels around 1.2 seen before the pandemic. In recent months the relationship between job openings and unemployment has kept that prospect alive. The number of estimated job openings has fallen from a peak of 12 million in March of 2022 to 9.59 million in March this year. The openings rate, expressed as a percentage of filled and available positions, has fallen from a high of 7.4 last spring to 5.8 in March.

The Fed's meeting will be followed with expected rate increases by the European Central Bank on Thursday and the Bank of England next week. But the U.S. central bank is furthest along in the process, and may signal that this week's rate increase is the last, at least for now. Inflation has been edging down, gradually, with the main price index the Fed watches still more than double the central bank's 2% target. The anticipated quarter-percentage-point increase on Wednesday will put the target federal funds rate at roughly the same spot, between 5% and 5.25%. With this rate increase, Fed officials will hit a level that will be about 1 percentage point above the rate they consider to have a neutral impact on economic activity.

☆ Explainer: How the Fed might act in a U.S. default
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Despite Powell's protestations, the Fed would have a role in trying to limit the harm to financial stability. In past debt-ceiling standoffs - in 2011 and 2013 - Fed staff and policymakers developed a playbook that would likely provide a starting point. English, however, had envisioned the bonds being accepted by the Fed at a market price that would likely be impaired by their defaulted status. But, following the bank failures in March, the Fed has a new bank lending facility - one that allows securities with impaired prices to be pledged at face value. Ben Bernanke, Fed chair at the time, quipped: "So you are willing to accept 'loathsome' under some certain circumstances," drawing laughter from others on the call.

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