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HONG KONG, May 16 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Investing in China need not be too stressful, provided you avoid investing in Chinese companies. A spending pop in the transport, food and beverage and hospitality sectors helped lift first-quarter GDP to 4.5%. But that data was flattered by comparison to a grim 2022, and April data on imports, inflation and bank loans all disappointed. While Beijing’s crackdowns on domestic technology companies and property developers have eased, other risks are rising. Separately, quarterly revenue at Alibaba is expected to rise 3% year-on-year to 211 billion yuan ($30.5 billion) in the three months to March, according to the average analyst forecast on Refinitiv.
Hong Kong CNN —China’s Communist Party had “supreme access” to all data held by TikTok’s parent company Bytedance, including on servers in the United States, a former employer who is bringing a wrongful termination lawsuit has alleged. Yintao “Roger” Yu filed a lawsuit of wrongful termination against Bytedance in Superior Court in San Francisco earlier this month. Yu’s lawsuit alleges that the company made user data accessible to China’s Communist Party via a backdoor channel, no matter where the data was located. Yu worked for ByteDance Inc. for less than a year and his employment ended in July 2018,” which Yu disputed in his complaint. So the risk would be similar to any government going to an American company, asking for data,” Chew said at the hearing.
While the communique made no mention of the U.S. debt ceiling stalemate, it figured constantly in discussions. "We need to remain vigilant and stay agile and flexible in our macroeconomic policy amid heightened uncertainty about the global economic outlook," they added in the communique after the meeting. G7 central bank chiefs vowed to combat "elevated" inflation and ensure expectations on future price moves remained well-anchored, a sign many of them will not let their guard down against stubbornly high inflation. CHINA AND SUPPLY CHAINSSeeking to reassure investors after recent U.S. bank failures, the G7 finance chiefs retained an April assessment that the global financial system was "resilient". In the communique, the finance leaders set a year-end deadline for launching a new scheme to diversify global supply chains.
New York CNN —An ex-ByteDance employee claimed he was wrongfully terminated after raising concerns about what he believed were illegal practices by the company, such as allegedly stealing content from its competitors Snapchat and Instagram. “The Committee maintained supreme access to all the company data, even data stored in the United States,” the complaint obtained by the New York Times said. Yu claimed that shortly after starting his job, he realized ByteDance had been embroiled in a “worldwide scheme” to steal from the app’s competitors such as Instagram and Snapchat. Painting a picture of the company’s early days in 2018, he claimed ByteDance would take videos from its competitors and use them to populate its own video services. “We plan to vigorously oppose what we believe are baseless claims and allegations in this complaint,” the spokesperson said.
When Yu raised these concerns to higher management, he said they dismissed them and asked him to hide the illegal program, especially from employees in the United States, as it had stricter IP laws and class actions. He is seeking a court order that would prohibit ByteDance from scraping content from other social media platforms. In response to the complaint, ByteDance said, "We plan to vigorously oppose what we believe are baseless claims and allegations. ByteDance also responded to the scraping allegations, saying it acquired data in line with industry practice and its global policy. In April, Montana lawmakers passed a bill to ban its short-form TikTok app from operating in the state.
Apart from compliance with rules to stop money laundering and terrorist financing, crypto firms are largely unregulated in many parts of the world. "If we built a good regulatory regime, people would come. We are shooting ourselves in the foot by not having a regulatory regime in the U.S.," Peirce said. U.S. Congress needed to decide which regulatory body has authority over crypto, Peirce added. Global standards and harmonisation as much as possible are key, said Sarah Pritchard, executive director for supervision at Britain's Financial Conduct Authority.
HONG KONG, May 3 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Chinese travellers are opening their suitcases again, but not their wallets. Domestic travel bookings during the holiday surged eightfold from a year earlier, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, according to online travel agency Trip.com (9961.HK). The return of Chinese holiday-goers should be a huge relief at home and abroad. Before the pandemic, domestic tourism contributed a whopping 11% of GDP and 10% of national employment, according to Fitch. The country's Big 3 carriers - Air China (601111.SS), China Southern (600029.SS), and China Eastern (600115.SS) - are grappling with high oil prices, a weak yuan and geopolitical tensions.
HONG KONG, May 2 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Money flowing into the People's Republic is getting uncomfortably hot. Yet recent reversals in New York, Hong Kong and Shanghai suggest that is driven by fickle short-term funds – exactly what Beijing doesn’t want. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsFollow @mak_robyn on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSChinese spirit maker ZJLD shares closed down 18% lower than their initial public offering price on their trading debut April 27. The KKR-backed company raised $676 million in what was the biggest offering in Hong Kong since October 2022. Separately, the Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan, Canada's third largest pension fund, closed down its China equity investment team based in Hong Kong, Reuters reported on April 25, citing sources.
Michael M. Santiago | Getty ImagesJPMorgan Chase's takeover of First Republic likely ends the panic phase of the banking crisis, with the fallout left to come in a pivotal week for markets and the economy. Following an unsuccessful effort to keep First Republic open, the largest U.S. bank by deposits reached a deal to take over the 14th-largest financial institution. With financial services covering such a wide swath of activities in the $26.5 trillion U.S. economy, the failures of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and now First Republic Bank will reverberate. Stocks nudged higher Monday morning on hopes that the worst of a banking crisis that began in early March has drifted into the rear view. "Resolving FRC should end the 7-week post SVB bank crisis phase."
But, "you do at some point need to start having contact with reality," he told Insider. The plan was still only a rough sketch, Blania told Insider, but that didn't seem to matter to his host. "He always wanted to understand everything at a very deep level," Thrun told Insider in an email. (When asked about guns, Altman told Insider he'd been "happy to have one both times my home was broken into while I was there.") When asked about this, Altman told Insider in an email: "i can guess what that's about; these stories grow crazily inflated over the years of getting re-told!
Altman told Insider, "We debate our approach frequently and carefully." "I don't think anyone can lose your dad young and wish he didn't have more time with him," Altman told Insider. Altman told Insider that his thinking had evolved since those posts. (When asked about guns, Altman told Insider he'd been "happy to have one both times my home was broken into while I was there.") When asked about this, Altman told Insider in an email: "i can guess what that's about; these stories grow crazily inflated over the years of getting re-told!
The current situation could not be further removed from the last time debt ceiling episodes really spooked markets in 2011 and 2013. The Fed is expected to raise rates again in May and could still even tighten again in June if policymakers think inflation and growth data warrant it. "Some people may be building some debt ceiling risks into their monetary policy expectations," said Benson Durham, head of global policy at Piper Sandler. "The debt ceiling and monetary policy are going to be more intertwined in the coming months." chartThe debt ceiling is the maximum amount the U.S. government can borrow to meet its financial obligations.
Beijing's retaliatory strategy against U.S. chip sanctions is a bigger worry. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing has so far remained relatively unscathed since Washington stepped up sanctions to hobble China’s domestic semiconductor development. Second, even if Chinese companies account for just 11% of TSMC’s top line, its other customers are far more exposed to the People's Republic. How Beijing responds to American pressure will define the scope of TSMC’s recovery. In January, TSMC said its capital spending in 2023 would be between $32 billion and $36 billion, compared to $36.3 billion in 2022.
Her comments were echoed by others who feel the narrative shared by three top central banks of relatively cost-free disinflation rests on shaky ground. Among the Fed, ECB and BoE, only the British central bank projects a recession will be needed to slow inflation - only a mild one at that. U.S. central bank officials have split the difference, projecting a modest one-percentage-point rise in the unemployment rate this year from its near-historic low of 3.5%, and slow, but continued, economic growth. Martins Kazaks, Latvia's central bank chief, said the risk of a recession was still "non-trivial," with a host of factors still putting pressure on prices. For the Fed, different policymakers offer different ideas about the forces that will lower inflation as high interest rates slowly cool demand.
HONG KONG, April 17 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Hong Kong could use a shot of something. Yet compared to the $313 billion Shanghai-listed behemoth Kweichow Moutai (600519.SS), debutante ZJLD is a drop in the near-$100 billion baijiu industry: it logs less than 1% market share. At the top of the marketed price range, ZJLD could be worth $5.4 billion, or almost 24 times this year's forecast earnings, IFR reports. Revenue at the company, which will be the first baijiu distiller to list in Hong Kong, was up a healthy 15% last year, while its adjusted net profit margin topped 20%. For Hong Kong, consumer stocks will put the focus back onto classic risks.
Her comments were echoed by others who feel the narrative shared by three top central banks of relatively cost-free disinflation rests on shaky ground. Among the Fed, ECB and BoE, only the British central bank projects a recession will be needed to slow inflation - only a mild one at that. U.S. central bank officials have split the difference, projecting a modest one-percentage-point rise in the unemployment rate this year from its near-historic low of 3.5%, and slow, but continued, economic growth. Martins Kazaks, Latvia's central bank chief, said the risk of a recession was still "non-trivial," with a host of factors still putting pressure on prices. For the Fed, different policymakers offer different ideas about the forces that will lower inflation as high interest rates slowly cool demand.
With that out of the way, Zhang is cleared to focus on Alibaba's massive corporate overhaul unveiled last month. Current shareholders will be left with a holding company led by Zhang, plus Alibaba's cash-cow Chinese commerce business. After all, Alibaba's U.S. shares are down over 60% in the past two years, while the S&P 500 has stayed largely flat. The sales will eventually reduce SoftBank's stake in Alibaba to 3.8%. In 2022, SoftBank booked a gain of $34 billion by cutting its stake in Alibaba to 14.6% from 23.7%.
Elon Musk dreams of Twitter's AI power
  + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Emilia David | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +4 min
Elon Musk's personal AI ambitions. Elon Musk was one of the more prominent names on an open letter calling for a pause in AI development. My teammate Asia Martin points out that Musk's position on AI is contradicted by Twitter's investment in generative AI. Twitter's recent purchase of hardware normally used to develop generative AI products shows the extent of this ambition. Read more on Elon Musk's AI ambitions.
In its latest Global Financial Stability Report, the IMF said global financial stability risks had increased "rapidly" in the six months since its previous assessment when it was already touting hazards as being "significantly skewed" to the downside. The IMF said the bank failures "have been a powerful reminder" of the challenges wrought by tighter monetary policy - and the more stringent financial conditions it generated - and the buildup in vulnerabilities since the global financial crisis more than a decade ago. Problems at U.S. regional banks grew last year, as rapidly rising interest rates slashed the value of some banks' holdings in long-term assets such as home loans and government bonds. Going forward, regional banks could face greater scrutiny with respect to their holdings and funding structures, the IMF cautioned. Even still, authorities should be more prepared to deal with financial instability, the IMF recommended, including by strengthening their bank resolution regimes.
Thomson ReutersRobyn Mak joined Reuters Breakingviews in 2013. Previously, she was a Research Associate for the Global Policy Programs at the Asia Society in New York where she focused on US-Iran relations, US-Myanmar relations and sustainability issues in Asia. She has also worked as a researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington DC and interned at several consulting firms, including the Albright Stonebridge Group. She holds a masters degree in international economics and international relations from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and is a magna cum laude graduate of New York University.
But overall bank credit has been stalled at about $17.5 trillion since January. The response - less lending, tighter credit standards and higher interest on loans - was already taking shape. Hard data on bank lending and credit will come into play, augmenting topline statistics like unemployment and inflation that the Fed is focused on. Reuters GraphicsSENTIMENT WEAKENINGThe survey of large and small banks asks high-level questions - Are lending standards tighter or looser? A Dallas Fed bank conditions survey, conducted in late March after the two bank failures, indicated lending standards in that Fed regional bank's district have kept tightening, with loan demand falling.
HONG KONG, April 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Alibaba's (9988.HK) worth may be hiding in plain sight. The $260 billion Chinese group wants to split off faster-growing, money-losing bets like its cloud and logistics units. It accounted for 9% of Alibaba's top line in the nine months to December, nearly double five years ago. Zhang would do well to focus investor attention back onto Alibaba's commerce operations in China. That’s some 30% more than the company’s entire market value as of Wednesday.
The monetary policy committee (MPC) retained the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) at 6.50% in a unanimous decision. With the likely softening of CPI to the low- to mid-5% levels in the coming month, the current repo rate of 6.5% implies that India’s real policy rate will hover around 1% during 2023-24, while maintaining a policy rate differential of about 1.5% with the US. Room for additional rate hikes has been retained with MPC’s policy stance continuing to remain unchanged at ‘withdrawal of accommodation’. We believe the bar for future rate hikes has increased, especially since near-term prints of CPI will be sub 6%. Scope for further hikes is limited given our growth-inflation outlook and impact of the past rate hikes on the same.
That should unlock value for weary shareholders, and please regulators and politicians keen to control strategic businesses. The restructuring will give each of Alibaba’s six businesses, which include its core commerce division, as well as cloud computing, games and logistics units, their own chief executive and board of directors. Investors promptly added nearly $23 billion, or 10%, to the New York-listed company’s market value, now at $250 billion, following Tuesday’s announcement. The $460 billion video-game giant also operates in sensitive areas like online media, cloud computing and mobile payments. Daniel Zhang will continue to serve as chairman and chief executive of Alibaba, which will follow a holding company management model, and concurrently serve as CEO of Cloud Intelligence.
“We used to think of nature as an endless supplier of resources into our business practices,” he said. “We’re trying to shift the conversation around the nature of the relationship between nature and business.”The final framework should give priority to the end result in natural areas, said Kat Bruce, founder and director of environmental-DNA startup NatureMetrics. Some $44 trillion of global economic value is moderately or highly dependent on nature, according to the World Economic Forum. Companies and shareholders should pay more attention to the material risk of natural degradation, Mr. Goldner said. The draft framework includes sector-specific guidance for areas including agriculture, mining, energy and financial services.
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