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☆ A widely followed recession signal just flashed, but its inventor says a downturn isn't guaranteed
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"The US economy is still growing," said Claudia Sahm, the chief economist at New Century Advisors, a former Federal Reserve economist, and the creator of the Sahm rule. Despite rebuking the idea that the US is in a recession, Sahm does have concerns about the labor market and high interest rates. Advertisement"The most important lever to pull is to normalize interest rates," Sahm said, joining a chorus of economists who say the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut interest rates. The Fed decided to hold interest rates steady in its July meeting at the end of the month. It's not surprising that the labor market has cooled after the booming post-pandemic recovery.

Persons: —, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, It's, it's Organizations: Service, New Century Advisors, Federal Reserve, Business, Fed

☆ Everything you wanted to know about the market meltdown but were too afraid to ask
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

In today's big story, we're giving a full breakdown of what has been a wild few days for the market . Tech: Big Tech is going through a bit of a mid-life crisis . Big Tech is going through a bit of a . There are a few factors at play here:Big Tech, the backbone of the market, had weaker-than-expected earnings last week. The decision could seriously hurt Google's revenue and may signal more antitrust enforcement to come for other Big Tech companies .

Persons: —, Airbnb, Rebecca Zisser, We're, what's, Warren Buffett's, Berkshire Hathaway, I'm, Claudia Sahm, M, Getty, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Jensen Huang, Citadel's Ken Griffin, Griffin, it's, Natalie Ammari, That's, Elon, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, Tech, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Apple, Oracle, Fed, Nvidia, Bank of America, Google Locations: Japan, Berkshire, Omaha, Asia, bitcoin, Florida, New York, London

☆ Recession fears are overstated, says Fmr. Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecession fears are overstated, says Fmr. Fed Vice Chairman Roger FergusonRoger Ferguson, Former Fed vice chairman, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk what's next for the Federal Reserve after today's market sell-off.

Persons: Fmr, Roger Ferguson Roger Ferguson Organizations: Fed, Federal Reserve

☆ Our bend-don't-break economy is reaching its limit
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Go to newsletter preferencesSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. In today's big story, interest-rate cuts are almost certainly coming, but the relief won't be felt immediately . The big storyCrash landingKevin Dietsch/Getty, Tyler Le/BIOur bend-don't-break economy might finally have reached its limit. After a year of resiliency in the face of high interest rates, the cracks are showing in the US economy. But it's not a silver bullet, and the rate cut's effect will take time to make its way through the economy.

Persons: —, Kevin Dietsch, Tyler Le, it's, Chelsea Jia Feng, Claudia Sahm, Madison Hoff, McDonald's, Jared Siskin, Bobby, Jordan Grumet, Justin Best, Brian Stauffer, Michal Kosinski, Rob Price, sompong, Seng kui Lim, Getty, Joe Biden's, Elon, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, Relief, Getty, Fed, Amazon, Big Tech, Madison, Park Conservancy, Citadel, FIRE, Union Square Advisors, Nvidia, America Locations: resiliency, Central, Switzerland, Canada, Park, Paris, New York, London

☆ Why the Fed is being blamed for the historic stock-market plunge
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Federal Reserve is catching some heat for the historic stock market plunge. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve is to blame for the historic stock market plunge since last week, according to a growing chorus of market experts. JPMorgan strategist Mislav Matejka said in a Monday note that the lack of Fed rate cuts in the first half of the year will weigh on economic growth in the second half, and that any coming interest rate cuts from the Fed likely won't be enough. AdvertisementRegardless of what the Fed's motivation might be with waiting until September to cut interest rates, the market is taking away a pretty clear message. "There is growing sentiment is that the Fed has waited too long to cut interest rates and is now behind the curve," Comerica Wealth Management CIO John Lynch said.

Persons: —, Wharton, Jeremy Siegel, Siegel, Jerome Powell, Powell, they've, we're, Kamala Harris, Mislav Matejka, Matejka, Paul Volcker, Volcker, DataTrek, Nicholas Colas, John Lynch Organizations: Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, CNBC, Washington DC, JPMorgan, Fed, Comerica Wealth Management Locations: Iran, Japan, Washington

☆ 3 reasons to worry about July’s weak jobs report — and 1 reason not to panic
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-03 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The Federal Reserve now has egg on its face after it kept interest rates near a quarter-century high earlier this week. By now, there’s ample evidence that the job market, a key driver of the US economy, has lost steam. Here are three reasons to be worried about July’s shockingly weak jobs report — and one silver lining. Consumer demand itself also hasn’t weakened just yet, despite the highest interest rates in more than two decades. Generally, the Fed makes its decision congruent with what’s going on with inflation or the job market.

Persons: , July’s, ’, ”, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Elizabeth Crofoot, Alicia Wallace, Jerome Powell, ” Crofoot, ” Michael Gapen, Matt Egan, weren’t, ” Truist’s Keith Lerner, they’ll, hasn’t, ” Chris Rupkey, Alan Blinder, Paul Krugman Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Dow, Nasdaq, Wall, Investors, Labor, Citigroup, JPMorgan Locations: New York, decelerate, American

☆ 2 recession indicators with perfect track records show the US just entered a downturn — opening the door for stocks to plummet as the Fed gets set to cut rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-03 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

AdvertisementSt. Louis FedDespite the Sahm Rule's impressive history, it is sometimes criticized because it fails to account for rising labor participation, which can raise the unemployment rate. In addition to downcast labor market data, the ISM Manufacturing Index fell further into contraction territory this week, signaling that US manufacturing continues to slow. The market's direction also depends on how investors interpret interest rate cuts alongside future data. Fed funds rate futures markets are now pricing in a 50-basis-point cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. AdvertisementHartnett and his team analyzed Fed rate-cutting cycles and identified three different types of rate cuts — cuts into a soft landing, cuts into a hard landing, and panic cuts, which are due to a credit event or some sort of Wall Street crisis.

Persons: —, Claudia Sahm —, Louis Fed, Piper Sandler, Tom Essaye, Jack McIntyre, Lara Castleton, Janus Henderson, Michael Kantrowitz, we've, Kantrowitz, Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Service, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, Labor, Brandywine Global, ISM, Nasdaq, Fed, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Bank of America, Fund

Read previewThe July jobs report has thrown the economy's soft landing into question — and the Federal Reserve is taking the heat. AdvertisementGiven the jobs report, Nick Bunker, economic research director for North America at the Indeed Hiring Lab, told Business Insider that "the soft landing for the US labor market is in peril." Advertisement"The problem is there's very few indications that this is the labor market we're going to stick around in," Bunker said. "It's clear that momentum of the labor market continues to be downward. "But I continue to stand by the idea that this is still part of the soft landing that people thought was not possible."

Persons: —, it's, Nick Bunker, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Jerome Powell, Julia Pollak, It's, We're, Bunker, Powell, Harris, doesn't, Labor Julie Su, Su, they've Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business, North America, New Century Advisors, Fed, Biden, Labor

☆ Surging US unemployment has triggered a recession indicator with a perfect track record
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewA closely watched recession indicator flashed on Friday after a weak July jobs report showed an unexpected surge in the unemployment rate. The Sahm Rule, created by former Federal Reserve official Claudia Sahm, triggers when the unemployment rate's three-month moving average moves 50 basis points above its 12-month low. That rule was triggered on Friday, with the moving average rising 53 basis points above that one-year trough, according to the real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator from the St. Louis Federal Reserve. The only misfire for the rule was in 1959, but even then, a recession started just five months after the Sahm Rule flashed. But Sahm herself wrote in a Substack post last week that "the rise in the unemployment rate is not as ominous as it would normally seem."

Persons: —, Claudia Sahm, Bill Adams, Sahm, hasn't Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Louis Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Comerica Bank, Fed

☆ Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged was not a mistake, says PIMCO's Richard Clarida
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed's decision to leave rates unchanged was not a mistake, says PIMCO's Richard ClaridaRichard Clarida, PIMCO global economic advisor and former Federal Research Vice Chairman, joins CNBC's 'Closing Bell' to discuss the latest Fed moves, the decision to leave rates unchanged, and more.

Persons: PIMCO's Richard Clarida Richard Clarida Organizations: Federal Research

☆ A September rate cut is 'far more likely than not' at this point, says Roger Ferguson
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA September rate cut is 'far more likely than not' at this point, says Roger FergusonFormer Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation, key takeaways from Fed Chair Powell's press conference, rate path outlook, and more.

Persons: Roger Ferguson Organizations: Roger Ferguson Former Federal

☆ Kamala Harris has a murky antitrust record. Wall Street sees an opportunity
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Rebecca Picciotto | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Democratic presidential candidate, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally at the Georgia State Convocation Center on July 30, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. Wall Street dealmakers said they believe Vice President Kamala Harris, if she were to win the November presidential election against Donald Trump, is a clean slate on antitrust regulation and a prime opportunity to loosen the Biden antitrust regime. "I don't think Harris will go that far. So far, Harris has stayed silent on antitrust enforcement, a cornerstone of the Biden administration's big-business crackdown. The Harris campaign did not respond to a request for comment on the vice president's antitrust position.

Persons: Kamala Harris, dealmakers, Donald Trump, Biden, Harris, George Paul, it's, Bill Kovacic Organizations: Democratic, U.S, Center, Wall, Biden, Kroger, Albertsons, Federal Trade Commission Locations: Georgia, Atlanta , Georgia

☆ Former Fed governor on FOMC meeting: Labor market will determine how fast the Fed will cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Fed governor on FOMC meeting: Labor market will determine how fast the Fed will cutLarry Meyer, former Fed governor and LHMeyer chairman, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his projections on the Fed meeting.

Persons: Larry Meyer Organizations: Former, Labor

☆ Fed would have been 'smarter' to cut today, says Fmr. Fed Vice Chairman Alan Blinder
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed would have been 'smarter' to cut today, says Fmr. Fed Vice Chairman Alan BlinderAlan Blinder, Former Federal Reserve vice chairman, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to explain why he believes the Federal Reserve should have cut interest rates today.

Persons: Fmr, Alan Blinder Alan Blinder Organizations: Fed, Federal Reserve

☆ It’s not the end of the world if the Fed doesn’t cut rates tomorrow
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —The Federal Reserve is all but certain to hold interest rates steady at its meeting this week. That’s why Torsten Slok, Apollo Global’s chief economist, is maintaining his prior forecast that the Fed won’t cut rates at all this year. “There are still two more CPI releases before the September 18 [Fed] meeting, so we have to wait and see if the downtrend in inflation continues,” he told CNN. Fed officials have signaled that September will be when they finally lower interest rates. The difference between a few months for that initial cut “really doesn’t matter unless there’s some big shock that hits the economy in that time,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said earlier this month.

Persons: Alan Blinder, Paul Krugman —, Blinder, what’s, Brandon Bell, Torsten Slok, Apollo, ”, Sean Snaith, it’s, Christopher Waller, Waller Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, CNN, ” University of Central, ” Locations: New York, ” University of Central Florida, Iran, Israel

☆ Interest rate cuts probably aren't here just yet, but they could finally reach Americans in under 2 months
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

It's safe to say that Americans can count on an interest rate cut pretty soon, but probably not this week. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its next interest rate decision, and it's once again expected to hold rates steady. However, the FOMC's September meeting could finally bring Americans the relief they've been waiting for — CME FedWatch showed markets think it's all but certain the Fed will cut rates that month. Lower interest rates would make borrowing more affordable for consumers and businesses alike. "You have kept interest rates too high for too long: it is time to cut rates," they wrote.

Persons: it's, Claudia Sahm, Greg McBride, There's, Jerome Powell, Powell, Sahm, Matt Colyar, September's, Elizabeth Warren, Jacky Rosen, John Hickenlooper Organizations: Service, Federal, CME FedWatch, Business, New Century Advisors, Fed, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Democratic, Moody's

☆ The data are mounting up for the Fed to cut rates, says Roger Ferguson
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe data are mounting up for the Fed to cut rates, says Roger FergusonFormer Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, the Fed's inflation fight, what to expect from the central bank's policy meeting this week, and more.

Persons: Roger Ferguson Organizations: Fed, Roger Ferguson Former Federal

☆ This biographer exchanged emails with Bernie Madoff from prison for a decade. Here’s what he learned
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-28 | by ( Annie Nova | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

Richard Behar Courtesy: Lizzie CohenYou probably haven't heard Bernie Madoff's name in awhile, but that doesn't mean the infamous fraudster's story is over, or the pain he inflicted. Irving Picard, an 83-old court-appointed trustee, still spends his days trying to claw back money from the those who benefitted from Madoff's Ponzi scheme, and to reduce the staggering losses of others. 'Prison was a great relief for him'AN: How did Madoff say life in prison changed him? In prison, he'd typically wake up in his cell at around 4 a.m., make coffee in bed with an instant hot water machine, then read, or listen to NPR until breakfast. RB: Bernie said he was under constant stress over the Ponzi, and would talk out loud to himself sometimes in the office, because of the pressure.

Persons: Richard Behar, Lizzie Cohen, Bernie Madoff's, Irving Picard, Madoff, Elie Wiesel, Ruth, he's, Behar, Richard Behar's, Mark, MADOFF, BERNARD L, he'd, Annie Nova, I've, I'm, scammers, —, Bernard Madoff, Stephen Chernin, I'd, Bernie, Chris Hondros, wasn't, Picard, John Moscow, Irving, Picard isn't, It's Organizations: CNBC, Behar's, Forbes, Manhattan Federal, Getty, NPR, SEC, Manhattan Locations: North Carolina, New York City

☆ Opinion: Americans don’t have enough in the bank to weather unrelenting disasters
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-28 | by ( Opinion Daniel Kaniewski | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +12 min

Even though floods have impacted 99% of US counties over the past 28 years, only 4% of homeowners have flood insurance. For those without flood insurance, FEMA provided $4,400 on average. Individuals and communities both have roles to play in building financial resilience to disasters. These Community Disaster Resilience Zones qualify for reduced local costs and additional technical assistance. Improving financial literacy is fundamental for making sound financial disaster preparedness decisions.

Persons: Daniel Kaniewski, Marsh McLennan, Beryl, Hurricane Harvey, Scott Olson, Daniel Kaniewski Marsh McLennan, Harvey, Hurricane Beryl, Greenlee Beal, Money, Nic Coury Organizations: Federal Emergency Management Agency, FEMA, CNN, Homes, US Chamber of Commerce, Allstate, Reuters, Stock, Wilder, National Flood Insurance Locations: Texas, Sugar Land , Texas, Alabama, Galveston , Texas, Florida, Virginia, Wilder Ranch, Santa Cruz , California, AFP, New York City

☆ Former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson on June PCE and rate cut timeline
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson on June PCE and rate cut timelineFormer Federal Reserve Vice Chair Roger Ferguson discusses his expectations for June PCE, inflation, and rate cuts.

Persons: Roger Ferguson Organizations: Former, PCE, Federal

☆ The US job market is close to the 'danger zone,' famed economist Claudia Sahm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-25 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The job market is in the "yellow" zone as unemployment ticks higher, economist Claudia Sahm said. Sahm is the creator of a highly accurate recession indicator that's close to being triggered. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe job market is edging closes to conditions typically associated with a downturn, according to the creator of a well-known recession indicator. Claudia Sahm, a former Fed economist, voiced concerns about the state of the job market in an interview with Fox Business Network on Wednesday.

Persons: Claudia Sahm, Sahm, — Organizations: Service, Fox Business Network, Business

☆ Homeland Security Secretary Announces Panel on Trump Assassination Attempt
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-21 | by ( Hamed Aleaziz | Zolan Kanno-Youngs | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The homeland security secretary, Alejandro N. Mayorkas, on Sunday announced the members of a panel to conduct an independent review into security failures after a gunman was able to wound former President Donald J. Trump last weekend at a campaign rally in Butler, Pa. The Secret Service, which answers to Mr. Mayorkas, is facing criticism for its decisions in planning security for the event, and Republican leaders have called for the agency’s director, Kimberly A. Cheatle, to resign. Mr. Mayorkas’s announcement on Sunday promised that the panel would get to the bottom of what went wrong and what changes the Secret Service should make to protect the country’s leaders. The panel — described by Mr. Mayorkas as bipartisan — that will be conducting the 45-day review will be made up of Janet Napolitano, a former homeland security secretary; Frances Townsend, a former homeland security adviser to President George W. Bush; Mark Filip, a former federal judge and a deputy attorney general under Mr. Bush; and David Mitchell, a former secretary of the Delaware Department of Public Safety and Homeland Security. Mr. Mayorkas said he could invite additional experts to join the panel in the coming days.

Persons: Alejandro N, Donald J, Kimberly A, ” Mr, Mayorkas, Janet Napolitano, Frances Townsend, George W . Bush, Mark Filip, Bush, David Mitchell Organizations: Sunday, Trump, Republican, Delaware Department of Public Safety, Homeland Security Locations: Butler, Pa

Read previewFormer President Donald Trump said the Federal Reserve should not cut interest rates before the presidential election, according to an interview he did with Bloomberg Businessweek. The Federal Open Market Committee has two interest rate decisions scheduled before the election in July and September. "I think it's past time for them to cut interest rates," Zandi said. During a February interview with Fox News, Trump accused Powell of being "political" and planning interest rate cuts to coincide with the election. "I think he's going to do something to probably help the Democrats, I think, if he lowers interest rates," Trump said, adding that "it looks to me like he's trying to lower interest rates for the sake of maybe getting people elected."

Persons: —, Donald Trump, Trump, Jerome Powell, Mark Zandi, Powell, Zandi, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, he's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Businessweek, Business, Democratic, Federal, Reserve, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Fed, New Century Advisors, Fox News, Stanford's Business, Government, Society, Trump, Wall Street

☆ A September rate cut right now seems like the more likely outcome, says Roger Ferguson
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA September rate cut right now seems like the more likely outcome, says Roger FergusonFormer Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the economy, what to make of the latest economic data, impact on the Fed's inflation fight, interest rate outlook, and more.

Persons: Roger Ferguson Organizations: Roger Ferguson Former Federal

☆ Lower interest rates could be coming soon. Here's what's at stake if they aren't.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Madison Hoff | Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

At the end of July, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its next decision on interest rates. Some economists have recently been pointing to similar concerns with the Fed keeping interest rates high. As Sahm pointed out, it would take time for reduced interest rates to "flow through to the economy." "You want to begin a process of taking the pressure off of the economy," Sahm said. AdvertisementZandi said interest rates on credit cards and Buy Now, Pay Later rates could come down, along with a decline in auto lending rates and mortgage rates.

Persons: —, Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Powell, Claudia Sahm, it's, Sahm, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Brian Rose, Rose, Zandi, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Service, Moody's, Business, Federal, CME FedWatch, Fed, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Sahm Consulting, Federal Reserve, Democratic, UBS, Chicago Federal, Wall Street Journal

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