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☆ The Fed has redeemed itself after an 'egregious' post-COVID inflation error, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The former Treasury Secretary told Bloomberg TV that the central bank's interest rate strategy has largely succeeded, even though Fed officials made a major blunder by first underestimating pandemic-era inflation. In 2021, the Fed mischaracterized inflation as "transitory," citing that COVID supply chain disruptions would eventually blow away. Once central bankers grew to understand that inflation needed an interest rate response, the Fed initiated the most aggressive policy-tightening campaign in recent history. In that period, Summers often showcased skepticism that the Fed could clamp down on inflation this way without economic consequences. AdvertisementNow, the main question is how far interest rates could fall during the Fed's September meeting.

Persons: —, Larry Summers, Summers, I've, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, Fed

☆ US stocks are overvalued because of unrealistic expectations for AI-powered economic growth, Vanguard says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors are too optimistic about the near-term prospects of AI, Vanguard said. "This is double the annualized rate of the 1920s, when electricity lit up the nation," Vanguard wrote. AdvertisementBut Vanguard global chief economist Joe Davis thinks expectations are too high, and says that stocks are overvalued even if the AI boom plays out as anticipated. For context, the S&P 500's trailing one-year earnings growth rate through the second quarter of 2024 was 10.9%, according to FactSet data. That's probably not going to happen, which means we're unlikely to experience an AI-driven economic boom in 2025," he said.

Persons: —, Joe Davis, It's, Davis, BlackRock Organizations: Vanguard, Service

☆ The US has announced new sanctions targeting Russia's war machine — and says more are coming
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-23 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The US Treasury and State Department has issued new sanctions against entities still helping Russia. The Treasury warned that secondary sanctions could target nations hosting Russian bank branches. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementThe US has taken fresh aim at Russia's wartime economy with another wide-sweeping sanctions package, targeting sources that help sustain Moscow's fight in Ukraine. On Friday, The Treasury and State Department announced restrictions against 400 individuals and entities worldwide, including in China, Turkey, and Switzerland.

Persons: —, Wally Adeyemo Organizations: US Treasury, State Department, Treasury, Service, Business Locations: Russia, Ukraine, China, Turkey, Switzerland

☆ Investors are missing gains by passing on the market's least-loved stocks, investing legend Rob Arnott says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A portfolio of stocks booted from indexes would make an investor 74 times wealthier between 1991 and 2023, the research said. Authors Rob Arnott and Forrest Henslee announced the creation of NIXT, a fund that tracks deletions. The firm's founder and investing legend Rob Arnott and vice president Forrest Henslee wrote that stocks dropped by an index outperform for at least five years with remarkable persistence. After being deleted from an index, nixed stocks can outdo the market by an average of 5% a year. When an index decides to remove an asset, it's essentially creating excessive selling momentum, Arnott wrote.

Persons: Stocks, Rob Arnott, Forrest Henslee, —, Arnott, That's Organizations: Research Affiliates, Service, Nasdaq, Research

☆ Stock market today: Stocks soar as investors cheer soft PPI and brace for consumer inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks rallied on cooling inflation data from the producer price index report. Investors are hoping for evidence of further cooling in Wednesday's consumer price index. Starbucks gained 23% on Tuesday on news Chipotle boss Brian Niccol will be the new CEO. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the producer price index rose 0.1% in July, underwhelming estimates of a 0.2% increase. Investors will now watch for further disinflationary signals in Wednesday's consumer price index report.

Persons: Brian Niccol, —, Dow, Jamie Cox Organizations: Investors, Starbucks, Service, Labor Statistics, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Fed, Harris Financial Group, Bank of America

☆ Russian banks are grappling with liquidity issues as US sanctions choke supply of yuan
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Russian banks are running low on yuan, Bloomberg reported. AdvertisementAn intensifying supply crunch in the Chinese yuan has pressured Russians to embrace a costlier method of securing the needed currency, Bloomberg reported. With the yuan liquidity shortfall doubling, Russian firms have grown increasingly dependent on yuan swaps provided by the Bank of Russia, Bloomberg said, but borrowing the yuan this way comes at a higher rate. This hasn't stopped yuan swap activity from ballooning. But even before the fresh sanctions package took effect this summer, Chinese banks were already halting yuan payments with Russia over fears of Western repercussions.

Persons: That's, —, Bloomberg, Jake Sullivan Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Bank of Russia, US, Treasury Department, National, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center Locations: Moscow, Beijing, Russia, Ukraine, China

☆ A US construction boom is sending rents lower — but there's a narrow window to score a deal, Redfin says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Apartment rents declined for all bedroom counts for the first time since June 2020, Redfin said. But building is slowing and property managers will eventually start raising rents again, it said. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementRunaway rent hikes have subsided in the US as the post-pandemic construction overload has offered a much needed supply of apartments. According to Redfin, asking rents fell year-over-year for all apartment sizes last month, a trend last achieved in June 2020.

Persons: Redfin, — Organizations: Service, Business

☆ 4 reasons why Wall Street's anxiety over excessive AI spending boom is 'premature,' Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Bank of America offered four reasons why investors are worrying too much about high AI spending. Investors can look forward to fresh catalysts ahead, such as Nvidia's upcoming Blackwell AI product, the bank said. Second, AI spending is focused on more than just creating new revenue streams. For instance, these expenditures help tech firms maintain social or e-commerce dominance, or protect their reign over the online search sector. "Concerns about the return on investment (ROI) on high AI capex is valid but premature and inconclusive in our view," the bank wrote.

Persons: —, Goldman Sachs Organizations: of America, Blackwell, Service, Bank of America, 5G, Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Apple

☆ Morgan Stanley just added these 3 safe stocks to their 'buy' list with the market expected to stay choppy
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Morgan Stanley has added three new high-quality defensive stocks to its "Fresh Money Buy List." AdvertisementMorgan Stanley expanded its list of recommended equities with three high-quality stocks, as the bank veer further into defensive positioning. These names could help shield against ongoing macro uncertainty, which Morgan Stanley does not expect will resolve anytime soon. Morgan Stanley holds an Overweight rating on the company, with a price target of $211 per share. (3) Northrop GrummanNOC, the defense and aerospace company, joined Morgan Stanley's list as a premium equity for exposure to industrials.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, —, Consumer Staples, Wilson, Public Service Enterprise Group Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley's Organizations: Service, Federal, Healthcare, Consumer, Public Service Enterprise Group, Northrop Grumman NOC, Verizon, Walmart Locations: Real

☆ 3 reasons why recession alarms are flashing a false positive, market vet says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-12 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Fresh anxiety might also spring from the fact that the yield curve is finally disinverting, which is a recessionary signal on its own. "In other words, the Credit Crisis Cycle may be on pause this time." AdvertisementStable credit conditions also contradict a typical reason for why the yield curve inverted in the first place. They are usually correct, Yardeni noted, but not this time around. AdvertisementBut when this happens, shorter-term Treasurys typically roll off quicker than longer ones, Yardeni noted.

Persons: —, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni Organizations: Service, Business, Federal Reserve, Federal, Valley Bank, ICE

☆ Trump's 'over-the-top' tariffs will thrust the US back into an era of economic shocks, thank tank expert says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-04 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Trump has promised to implement tariffs on virtually all US trade, and use them to replace the income tax. But the US already has a history of implementing broad-sweeping tariffs, PIIE's Steven R. Weisman said. He said such policies have taken the US close to bankruptcy, and unleashed an era of economic shocks. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! But to Steven R. Weisman — a vice president with the Peterson Institute for International Economics — a look through American history shows why this could prove reckless.

Persons: Trump, Steven R, Weisman, —, Donald, Weisman — Organizations: Service, Republican, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Trump White, New York Times, Business

☆ From bankruptcies to price wars, the US freight recession is reshaping the industry
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-28 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The freight recession will likely remain drag on into a sixth quarter, according to AFS Logistics. Bankruptcies and aggressive competition have defined the industry downturn, the firm told Business Insider. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThere's no end in sight for the freight recession, and the downturn is reshaping dynamics in the industry. This story is available exclusively to Business Insider subscribers.

Persons: Tom Nightingale, —, Cowen Organizations: AFS Logistics, Business, Service

☆ Stock market today: Dow soars 654 points as traders celebrate inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Encouraging inflation data stoked optimism that the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates in September. That changed Friday, as encouraging inflation data injected new life into the rally. Advertisement"Next week we expect [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell to set the table for future rate cuts, speaking confidently about progress bringing inflation down. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market no longer expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates steady in September. The market also forecasts high chances that the Fed will slash rates by up to 75 basis points through December.

Persons: Russell, —, Jerome, Powell, David Donabedian, Chris Zaccarelli, Dexcom Organizations: Federal, Service, PCE, CIBC Private Wealth, Reserve, Independent, Alliance Locations: Here's, –

☆ Starter homes cost more than $1 million in a record 237 cities
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Typical starter homes are worth at least $1 million in a record 237 US cities, Zillow reported. Nearly half of these cities are in California, with New York and New Jersey also heavily represented. AdvertisementA record number of US cities now have typical starter homes worth at least $1 million, Zillow reported. On average, homebuyers can find seven-figure starter properties in 237 metros, the firm said, a considerable jump from where values stood five years ago. Zillow defined typical starter homes as properties in the lower third of values.

Persons: —, Zillow Organizations: Service, metros, Business Locations: California, New York, New Jersey

☆ North Korea's economy is booming thanks to its arms trade with Russia
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

North Korea's GDP grew 3.1% in 2023, according to central bank estimates. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementNorth Korea's growing trade ties with Russia are paying off, helping end a three-year downturn, according to the South Korean central bank. The bank's annual report, cited by Bloomberg, found that North Korea's 2023 GDP grew 3.1% in real terms. Since North Korea does not offer official data, indicators tracked by its southern neighbor are relied on instead.

Persons: — Organizations: Bank, Service, Bloomberg, Business Locations: Korea, Russia, Ukraine, Korean, North Korea

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rebound as inflation data reinforces Fed rate-cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks rose Friday morning, regaining momentum after three days of losses. Instead, investors indicated 87.7% odds of a 25-basis point cut, and 11.9% odds of a 50-basis point cut. This week, creeping doubt in large-cap tech stocks rally spurred investors to rotate out of the sector, pulling both indexes down 3.67% and 2.6% through the past week, respectively.

Persons: —, Fitch, Olu Sonola Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, PCE, Federal, Treasury Locations: Here's

☆ Why the market's smallest stocks will surge 15% in August, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-25 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The small-cap-heavy Russell 2000 will jump 15% or more in August, Fundstrat's Tom Lee told CNBC. Expectations of a Trump White house are also helping drive small-cap buying, Lee added. Fundstrat's Tom Lee told CNBC that the small-cap-focused Russell 2000 is likely to gain 15% or more through August, if history is any guide. Lee says the market's certainty in upcoming interest-rate cuts — expected to commence in September — is helping drive the small-cap rally. "The nine times it did that since 1979, when you were in a bear market, we were up 100% — one month, three months, six months, 12 months later," he said.

Persons: Russell, Fundstrat's Tom Lee, Lee, —, It's, He's, Donald Trump Organizations: CNBC, Trump, Service, tanking, Barclays

☆ It may already be too late for the Fed to stop a recession, former central bank president says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-25 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

"Although it might already be too late to fend off a recession by cutting rates, dawdling now unnecessarily increases the risk," the former New York Federal Reserve President said. But to Dudley, even this is too late, and central bankers would do better to pivot rates at next week's policy meeting. AdvertisementAccording to Dudley, this slowdown points to fewer jobs down the road, and an uptick in unemployment could set off a near-certain recession indicator: the Sahm Rule. Despite this, Dudley suggested that the Fed might not be as concerned about breaching the Sahm Rule as it should be. According to Dudley, there are two other reasons the Fed may be waiting for September to cut rates.

Persons: —, Bill Dudley, dawdling, Dudley, Jerome Powell, Claudia Sahm, I'm Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, New York Federal, Business, Fed Locations: Dudley

☆ Russia's war-driven economic growth is a mirage, and more sanctions are needed to keep pressure on, European finance ministers say
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Sanctions are instead straining Russia, and could do more if the West is patient enough, a group of eight European finance ministers jointly argued in The Guardian. Large financial stimulus is the chief tailwind keeping Russia resistant, but the ministers noted that isn't an endless pillar of support. The eight ministers argued that these conditions make Western sanctions more important than ever, adding that pressure should be cranked up on Russia. They noted that if the West is patient enough, Russia's confidence will eventually slump as long-term damage takes hold.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Guardian, Business, Kremlin Locations: Moscow, Russia, Ukraine, Sweden, Poland, Netherlands, Soviet Union, Belarus, Asia

☆ Tesla tanks 13% after earnings, dragging other EV stocks lower
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Tesla's stock dropped as much as 13% on Wednesday after reporting weak second-quarter earnings. AdvertisementTesla stock tumbled as much as 13% on Wednesday after the company's second-quarter results offered limited reassurance to eager investors. It marked the fourth straight quarter Tesla has fallen short of analyst forecasts. The taxi's unveiling, seen by many on Wall Street as a major AI-driven catalyst for Tesla, was originally scheduled for next month. "Tesla's muddling through the EV recession," Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jones wrote, citing a quarter-over-quarter drop in capital expenditures.

Persons: Tesla, —, Elon Musk, Morgan Stanley, Adam Jones, Nikola, Dan Levy, Tesla's, Cantor Fitzgerald, Andres Sheppard, Gene Munster, Dan Ives, Sheppard Organizations: Service, EV, General Motors, Buick, Barclays, Deepwater Asset Management, Wedbush Securities, Tesla

☆ Trump's tough trade stance could undercut his plans for a weaker dollar
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-23 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Donald Trump wants a weaker dollar in order to boost exports for US manufacturers. Other ways Trump could weaken the dollar would also risk raising US debt or inflation, Barclays said. AdvertisementDonald Trump's proposed policies run counter to one another, with his plan to increase trade tariffs complicating his intent to weaken the dollar, Ajay Rajadhyaksha of Barclays wrote in the Financial Times. Other options for weakening the dollar exist, but none come without consequences, the strategist noted. He cited alternative plans: raising US debt could help, at the cost of Treasury market volatility and more inflation pressure.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, —, Donald Trump's, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Rajadhyaksha Organizations: Barclays, Service, Financial Times, Bloomberg, Republican, America, Trump, Federal Reserve, Treasury Locations: stagflation, Japan

☆ Stock market today: Stocks trade mixed as investors get ready for Tesla and Alphabet earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-23 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stock were mixed early Tuesday as investors awaited earnings from big companies. Markets are getting ready to pick through results from Tesla and Alphabet after the closing bell. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stock moves were muted on Tuesday, with investors getting ready to go over earnings results from Tesla and Google parent Alphabet after the closing bell. Tesla and Alphabet are the first of the Magnificent Seven tech cohort to post second-quarter results.

Persons: —, Russell, Bill Adams, Adams Organizations: Service, Tesla, Google, Nasdaq, Federal

☆ The US housing-market logjam keeps getting worse
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-23 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Existing home sales fell in June to nearly to their slowest pace since 2010. The decline comes as home prices notched a record high in the same month. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe pace of existing home sales fell close to a record low in June as record-high prices and persistently high mortgage rates turned buyers away.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, National Association of Realtors, Business

☆ Why a majority of Americans think the economy is already in a recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-23 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewWhile Wall Street cheers the country's economic momentum, outlooks among most Americans appear more gloomy, an Affirm survey reported. The payments company found that three in five Americans think the US is currently in a recession. Seven out of 10 Americans see today's inflation rate as a burden on their financial futures, limiting their ability to save and plan ahead. For its part, Wall Street has remained optimistic about the economy's trajectory, given that inflation has progressively come down from its pandemic highs. Although spending kept up enough to stall an official recession, Americans have gradually pulled back their buying.

Persons: —, Vishal Kapoor Organizations: Service, Business, Product, Northwestern Mutual, Federal Reserve, of America Locations: U.S, Affirm's

☆ Stock market today: Indexes end lower as investors brace for major earnings results
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-23 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Index ended the day lower Wednesday as investors braced for Tesla and Alphabet's earnings. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . The two firms are the first of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks to release their earnings. The stock market is fresh off a winning rally on Monday, which saw the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 rise above 1%. Advertisement"The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is expected to tick lower in the June release, paralleling the month's slower CPI inflation.

Persons: —, Tesla, Bill Adams, it's Organizations: Tesla, Service, Nasdaq, UPS, Federal, Comerica, CPI

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