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AdvertisementTwo of the reported candidates for Treasury Secretary made their fortunes on Wall Street, including billionaire Apollo CEO Marc Rowan. Eligible federal appointees can defer capital gains taxes indefinitely when they sell stock or other assets in order to avoid a conflict of interest. As a top earner in New York, they would normally have to pay more than $3 million in capital gains taxes. The sum that would have been spent on capital gains taxes is now free to compound and grow. The IRS allows investors to defer capital gains taxes in other scenarios that are deemed outside their control.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Trump, Howard Lutnick, Cantor Fitzgerald, Major Trump, Chris Wright, Marc Rowan, Bush, Goldman Sachs, Henry Paulson, George H.W, Bob Willens, You've, Scott Bessent, frontrunners, eyeing Rowan, Kevin Warsh, Morgan Stanley, Warsh, Jane Lauder, Rowan, Ed Renn of Withersworldwide, Penny Pritzker, Mark Parthemer, Willens, Renn Organizations: Commerce, of Energy, Treasury, Executives, Columbia Business School, Federal Reserve, Government, IRS Locations: George H.W . Bush, New York
AdvertisementLast week, Trump was said to be deciding between two leading candidates for Treasury Secretary. Here are the top picks Trump is reportedly now considering for Secretary of the Treasury. Kevin WarshKevin Warsh, center, is rising as one of the candidates for Trump's Treasury Secretary. AdvertisementMarc RowanMarc Rowan isn't said to be actively lobbying for Treasury Secretary, but his aides have reportedly been in touch with the Trump administration. Drew Angerer/Getty ImagesBessent, 62, was one of the original frontrunners for Trump's Treasury Secretary.
Persons: Trump, Kevin Warsh, Marc Rowan, Donald Trump, Robert F, Kennedy Jr, Florida Sen, Marco Rubio, Janet Yellen, he's, it's, Kevin Warsh Kevin Warsh, Tasos Katopodis, Warsh, Morgan Stanley, George W . Bush, Axios, Jerome Powell, Marc Rowan Marc Rowan isn't, PETER, Getty Images Rowan, Rowan, Rowan isn't, Howard Lutnick Howard Lutnick, ANGELA WEISS, Cantor Fitzgerald, Lutnick, Linda McMahon, He's, Vance, Elon Musk, Musk, Scott Bessent Scott Bessent, Drew Angerer, Bessent, George Soros, Soros, Breitbart, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden's, MAGA Organizations: Treasury, White, Department of Health, Human Services, State Department, Trump, Street, New York Times, Trump's, Federal Reserve Board, Getty Images, Apollo Global Management, Apollo, Times, Bloomberg, Madison, Garden, AFP Lutnick, WWE, Hamptons, Apple, World Trade, Key, Capital Management, Reuters Locations: Florida, America, Lago
Strategist Michael Wilson sees the S & P 500 reaching 6,500 in 2025. The sector is already up 6.8% since the Nov. 5 election, outperforming the other 10 S & P 500 sectors. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield is up more than 80 basis points (0.8 percentage point) since the Fed began cutting rates. While Wilson's base case sees the S & P 500 rising to 6,500, his most optmistic bullish scenario takes the benchmark all the way to 7,400 — 26% above Friday's close. However, his initial 2024 S & P 500 target proved too conservative at 4,500.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, Michael Wilson, Wilson, Donald Trump, Baird Organizations: Fed Locations: Washington, Friday's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarkets have shifted from political uncertainty to policy uncertainty, says Citi's Rob RoweRob Rowe, Citi U.S. regional director of research and head of global strategy, joins CNBC's 'Money Movers' to discuss the markets moving downward after a post-election spike, what he's looking for from the economy and Federal Reserve going forward, and more.
Persons: Citi's Rob Rowe Rob Rowe Organizations: Markets, Citi U.S, Federal Reserve
Stocks still have significant gains in front of them heading into 2025, at least according to BMO Capital Markets. Although bull markets over the past 50 years have averaged about six years in length, the current bull market is just starting its third year but, unfortunately, the third year of past bull markets have been the weakest of the bunch, he cautioned. .SPX YTD mountain The S & P 500 is little changed on Monday, but has gained about 23% in 2024. Heading into 2024, the S & P 500 had advanced more than 24% in 2023. The latter envisions the S & P 500 ending 2025 at 5,500, or about a 6% decline from the index's current price, mostly as a result of inflation picking up steam.
Persons: Stocks, Brian Belski, Belski, Belksi Organizations: BMO Capital Markets, BMO, Federal Reserve, & $ Locations: Canadian
That's due to a recent contraction in the money supply, which preceded past downturns, he told NYSE TV Live. The US economy is still likely to slow into a recession next year — and Trump's election victory may have just made the economic outlook even more challenging, according to top economist Steve Hanke. AdvertisementM2, one class of the money supply, shrank from mid-2022 to March 2024, according to Federal Reserve data. The M2 money supply started to re-expand this year, rising 2.47% year-per-year at the end of September. Trump's protectionist economic policies also impose a "big negative" for the economy, Hanke said.
Persons: Steve Hanke, downturns, Johns Hopkins, who's, That's, Hanke, Trump Organizations: NYSE TV, NYSE, Federal Reserve, Real Locations: Atlanta
Oil prices edge higher after Russia-Ukraine tensions escalate
  + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Crude oil storage tanks are seen from above at the Cushing oil hub, in Cushing, Oklahoma, March 24, 2016. Oil prices edged up on Monday after fighting between Russia and Ukraine intensified over the weekend, although concerns about fuel demand in China, the world's second-largest consumer, and forecasts of a global oil surplus weighed on markets. Russia unleashed its largest air strike on Ukraine in almost three months on Sunday, causing severe damage to Ukraine's power system. Investors also fretted over the pace and extent of interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve that has created uncertainty in global financial markets. In the U.S., the number of operating oil rigs fell by one to 478 last week, the lowest since the week to July 19, Baker Hughes data showed.
Persons: Joe Biden's, Biden, Tony Sycamore, Brent, WTI, Baker Hughes Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, IG, International Energy Agency, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: Cushing , Oklahoma, Russia, Ukraine, China, Kursk, U.S
Top Morningstar strategist David Sekera says there's one sector that "deserves a place in everybody's portfolio" right now — the energy sector. Stocks Sekara is betting on within the energy theme include Exxon Mobil and Devon Energy . Morningstar has a four-star rating on Devon Energy and says it is trading at a 22% discount to fair value. The investment research company gives stocks a rating of between one and five stars, with a top rating indicating that the shares are undervalued. Sekera says that U.S. stocks are now trading around 6% higher than their fair value.
Persons: David Sekera, George Bull, Sander Morris, Aaron Dunn, Donald Trump's, Morningstar, Trump, Sekera, Sekara Organizations: Morgan, Value, Exxon Mobil, Devon Energy, Exxon Mobile, U.S, Trump, U.S . Federal Reserve Locations: U.S, Morgan Stanley's
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNew Treasury Secretary's number one job will be reassuring the markets, says Axios' Mike AllenMike Allen, Axios co-founder, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss Trump's cabinet picks to date, the role for Federal Reserve, and much more.
Persons: Axios, Mike Allen Mike Allen Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve
President-elect Donald Trump's flurry of announcements regarding Cabinet nominees has left investors with one unexpected headache: a suddenly cloudy picture of who will take the all-important position of Treasury secretary. One somewhat new name to emerge into the Treasury conversation is former Fed governor Kevin Warsh. However, the Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that Warsh also has emerged as potential Treasury contender. Yields took another leg higher on Monday amid the Treasury uncertainty. However, Fundstrat research chief Tom Lee said that once the Treasury nominee issue is settled, that should restore some market confidence.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Trump, Scott Bessent, Sen, Bill Haggerty, Howard Lutnick, Elon Musk, Powell, Stocks, Kevin Warsh, Jerome Powell, Warsh, Evercore, Tom Lee, Lee Organizations: Key Square Group, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Trump Trade, Trump, Wall Street
Gold gains 1% as dollar rally stalls
  + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices rose on Monday after last week's sharp declines, as a rally in the dollar paused, while market participants awaited comments from Federal Reserve officials this week for more clues on the U.S. interest rate path. Gold prices rose on Monday after last week's sharp declines, as a rally in the dollar paused, while market participants awaited comments from Federal Reserve officials this week for more clues on the U.S. interest rate path. Spot gold firmed 1% to $2,587.49 per ounce by 0150 GMT, after falling to its worst week in more than three years on Friday. "Gold prices are due for a slight recovery following recent bout of hefty sell-offs and we may expect some drift higher with some rollover in the dollar," said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong. This has not been fully priced in by markets yet, so any need for recalibration may still pose an obstacle for gold."
Persons: Yeap Jun Rong, Joe Biden's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Strong U.S Locations: U.S, Ukraine, Russia
Dollar sitting pretty, yen bears wary of Bank of Japan hawks
  + stars: | 2024-11-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Yen bears were tense in case Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda used a speech later Monday to flag a possible rate hike in December, in part due to the weakness of the currency. Markets imply around a 55% chance of a quarter-point rate hike to 0.5% when the BOJ meets on Dec. 19. Against a basket of currencies the dollar held at 106.730, having touched a one-year top of 107.07 on Friday. The rally has coincided with a savage swing in 10-year Treasury yields, which have climbed 70 basis points since the start of October, fuelling a 5.4% rise in the U.S. dollar index . Analysts generally assume Trump's touted policies of tariffs, reduced immigration and debt-funded tax cuts will be inflationary, so limiting the scope for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Donald Trump's, Katsunobu Kato, Jonas Goltermann, Trump, Howard Lutnick, Cantor Fitzgerald, Scott Bessent Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S, Japanese Finance, Capital Economics, Trump, Federal Reserve, Central Bankers Locations: U.S, Japan, Canada
After announcing a swathe of names for his Cabinet, president-elect Donald Trump appears to be conducting auditions for his Treasury Secretary. AdvertisementHere's some of the best commentary we've seen about the race to be the next Treasury Secretary. Blowups somewhere are inevitable, and a Treasury secretary needs the experience to deal with the fallout in a way that reassures markets. There could now be a contest for Treasury Secretary where … the no1 job is reassuring the markets. In return he might be rewarded with the job of treasury secretary.
Persons: Donald Trump, Scott Bessent, Howard Lutnick, Marc Rowan, Kevin Warsh, Cantor Fitzgerald, Trump, Rowan, Apollo, Jay Powell, Warsh, Powell, hasn't, Kyle Bass, Mike Allen, You've, Ian Bremmer, Marco Rubio, Mike Waltz, Biden, Mr Lutnick, Mr Trump, … Mr Lutnick, , Mr Lutnick's, John Thune, Jeff Stein Organizations: Key Square Capital Management, Apollo Global Management, Federal Reserve, New York Times, The Times, Times, Hayman Capital Management, X, Trump's, Treasury, CNBC, Trump, Fed, White, National Economic Council, Eurasia Group, Bloomberg, The, The Washington Post Locations: X U.S, Eurasia, Washington, United States, The Washington
Many people feel “that they’re not getting enough back, that a college education isn’t worth enough,” said Paul Peterson, a professor of education policy and governance at Harvard University. The data says that college education is worth more than ever.”The dissonance shows how higher education has become another slice of the economy where the vibes are worse than the numbers might suggest — and risks exacerbating Democratic losses with working-class voters. Andrew Smith, director, University of New Hampshire Survey CenterThere are many reasons why improving college affordability may not register widely. Given other budget pressures — from child care to car insurance — college expenses simply might not have fallen enough to matter. A polling site in Vienna, Va., on Election Day, which saw working-class voters further embrace Republicans.
Persons: they’re, , Paul Peterson, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Trump, Andrew Smith, Pew, “ We’ve, Robin Isserles, ” Isserles, “ I’ve, Bill Clark, Ashley Koning, Harris, ” Koning, Sallie Mae Organizations: Harvard University, , NBC, Pew, University of New Hampshire Survey, grads, National Center for Education Statistics, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Manhattan Community College, Trump, Voters, Inc, Getty, Eagleton Center for Public, Rutgers University, Democrats, College Board, Republicans Locations: New York City, Staten Island, Long, Nassau County, Vienna, Va, New Jersey, New Jersey , New Hampshire, Pennsylvania
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during the opening bell on Nov. 13, 2024. Stock futures were slightly higher on Sunday night as Wall Street awaits a major earnings week and monitors a seemingly fizzled out postelection rally. S&P futures added 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.2%. The next major catalyst for the market this week will be Nvidia earnings, which are set to be released on Wednesday. Earnings from Palo Alto Networks and several major retailers, including Walmart , Target and Ross , are also on deck this week.
Persons: Donald Trump's, Jerome Powell, selloff, FactSet's John Butters Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, Traders, Blackwell, Palo Alto Networks, Walmart, Target Locations: 18.680.12, Palo
Now that the election is over, and a change at the FTC seems highly likely, Wall Street is getting ready for a new era. "In my opinion, bank M & A has reopened for every bank absent the globally systemically important banks," Mills told CNBC. DFS 1M mountain Shares of Discover Financial rallied sharply after the election of Donald Trump. The merger between those two companies was blocked by a judge and then dropped this past week , but both companies could be players moving forward. There's still a populist tone in the Trump campaign … and enforcement, in my opinion, is not going to go away.
Persons: Trump, Lina Khan, Carlyle, Harvey Schwartz, Morgan Stanley, Stephanie McCann, McDermott Will, Emery, Wolfe, Naturium, Goldman, Ed Mills, Raymond James, Mills, Donald Trump, Joe Biden's, Matt Gaetz —, , There's, Kyle Healy, Alston, Michael Lynton Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal Trade, FTC, Federal, CNBC, Wolfe Research, Amazon, Electronic Arts, Zoom Video Communications, EA, Activision Blizzard, Capital, Discover Financial Services, DFS, Discover Financial, Spirit Airlines, Frontier, JetBlue, Regulators, Trump, Bird, Warner Music Locations: Washington
Approximately 1 in 3 U.S. adults ages 18 to 34 live in their parents' home, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. The pandemic caused more young adults to return home or remain living with their parents into their late 20s and 30s, but aside from that spike, the numbers have remained fairly consistent in recent years. The 2008 financial crisis, the Great Recession and the pandemic are all examples of economic shocks. More than half of Gen Z adults say they don't make enough money to live the life they want due to the high cost of living, according to a 2024 survey from Bank of America. A significant number of millennials and Gen Z adults lack emergency savings.
Persons: Joanne Hsu, Hsu Organizations: Census, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve, Finance, Bank of America Locations: U.S
AdvertisementHigh housing costs, driven in large part by a shortage of homes, are keeping inflation sticky. Economists say Trump's proposals are a mixed bag; some could help housing costs and some could hurt. Ultimately, housing policy experts and industry leaders say housing costs will largely depend on how much new supply can be delivered to the market, which is suffering from a severe shortage of homes. Federal housing assistanceDuring his first term, Trump repeatedly proposed major cuts to housing assistance for households with low incomes or members with disabilities. This would make it harder for lower-income Americans to afford homes and slow down affordable housing construction.
Persons: Trump, Donald Trump, Karoline Leavitt, Vance, Jim Tobin, Tobin, Maurice Page, JD Vance, they're, Anirban Basu, Biden, Ben Metcalf, Metcalf Organizations: Federal Reserve, Trump, National Association of Home Builders, Biden, Administration, Nevada Housing Coalition, Business, Energy, Associated Builders and Contractors, Economic, of New, Reserve, UC Berkeley, Immigrants, Republican Locations: Nevada , Arizona, Utah, of New York, China
AdvertisementInflation's downtrend may not be as straightforward as some investors think, according to Charles Schwab. Immigration reform could mean higher labor costs," the note added. Labor costs risingLabor costs have accelerated in recent months, with unit labor costs among all workers in the business sector rising to 3.4% year-over-year in the third quarter, according to Federal Reserve data. Markets are beginning to dial back expectations for further rate cuts in response to inflation concerns," Schwab strategists said. Charles Schwab, Citi Economic Surprise Index"Stronger growth suggests that the Fed may not lower short-term rates as much as anticipated just a few months ago.
Persons: Charles Schwab, Donald Trump, Trump, Schwab, It's Organizations: Trump, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor, Federal Reserve, Unit, Bloomberg, Treasury, Business, Citi
5 things we're watching in the stock market in the week ahead
  + stars: | 2024-11-17 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +10 min
October retail sales, released Friday morning, came in slightly ahead of expectations, indicating a 0.4% monthly increase, versus a 0.3% increase expected. Disney's reported strong earnings and its stock advanced more than 16% for the week as a result. In the week ahead, we will get earnings from three Club names, including the highly anticipated quarter from Nvidia, and a couple of housing market-related updates. The Street is looking for Nvidia sales of $33.1 billion in its fiscal Q3 and earnings of 75 cents per share. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Donald Trump, Friday's, Jerome Powell, Powell, That's, YTD We're, we're, Jensen, Trump, Nvidia's, Stanley Black, Decker, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Angela Weiss Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Federal, Fed, Disney, Depot, Nvidia, TJX Companies, Home Goods, Blackwell, Palo Alto Networks, Home Depot, Stanley, Walmart, Viking Holdings, Sonoma, WSM, Baidu, PDD Holdings, Deere & Co, Warner Music Group, Intuit, Ross Stores, CNBC, Traders, New York Stock Exchange, AFP, Getty Locations: Maxx, U.S, China, Palo, VIK, Williams, New York City
After a tough year for the restaurant industry, executives can't wait for 2025 to start. And many of the nation's largest restaurant chains, from McDonald's to Starbucks , have disappointed investors with same-store sales declines for at least one quarter. But green shoots have appeared, fueling tepid optimism for the future of the restaurant industry. Plus, interest rates are finally falling. For restaurants, lower interest rates mean that it's cheaper to finance new locations, fueling growth.
Persons: Kate Jaspon, Dunkin, Burger Organizations: Inspire Brands, Restaurant Finance, Development Conference, Intelligence, Starbucks, Revenue Management Solutions, Burger King, Restaurant Brands, Federal Reserve Locations: Las Vegas, McDonald's
Small businesses are hurting at the worst possible time
  + stars: | 2024-11-17 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
That’s because small businesses typically having tighter profit margins compared to behemoths like Walmart and Amazon, so they feel the sting of rising costs more acutely. The Small Business Index shows that 8 in 10 small retail businesses rely on holiday sales to meet their annual profit goals. If only it were that simple for small businesses. John Waldmann, chief executive of Homebase, a payroll software provider for more than 100,000 small businesses, said Enjou Chocolat’s dilemma is something he hears all the time. “Small businesses are really reticent to increase prices, so when they do, it’s because they have to,” Waldmann said.
Persons: Washington CNN — Enjou, Mark Chinsky, , ‘ that’s, you’ve, ” Chinsky, that, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, we’re, , Thomas Barkin, “ Price, Joe Raedle, John Waldmann, Enjou, ” Waldmann, “ They’re, Scott Olson, there’s, Sarah Jordan, ” There’s, Bill Dunkelberg Organizations: Washington CNN, CNN, National Federation of Independent Business, Walmart, ” Richmond Fed, Target, , Board, Wrigley Field Locations: Morristown , New Jersey, America, Miami, Chicago
WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald Trump’s consistent campaign pledge to impose sweeping tariffs on products imported into the U.S. is likely to face stiff challenges in court and potentially pushback from Congress. There are potential legal limits to Trump’s authority, even though he has said he would unilaterally impose the increases. But a broad array of tariffs on allies “could cross the line,” especially as the Supreme Court has taken a generally pro-business stance in recent years, he added. During the Biden administration, the Supreme Court embraced a theory called the “major questions doctrine.” Biden’s ambitious plan to wipe out billions of dollars in student debt was one of the proposals the Supreme Court faulted. The Supreme Court declined to take up the issue.
Persons: Donald Trump’s, Trump, he’s, Joe Biden, , Alan Morrison, , ” Morrison, , ” Trump, Ed Brzytwa, Brzytwa, Sen, Rand Paul, Rick Scott, ” Scott, Petros Mavroidis, , Jennifer Hillman, Hillman, Biden, Matt Priest, “ We’ll, ” Priest Organizations: WASHINGTON, China . Industry, George Washington University Law School, Chicago Economic Club, National Bureau of Economic Research, Federal Reserve Board, Consumer Technology Association, “ Consumers, CTA, Fox News, Sunday, Republicans, Columbia Law School, Georgetown Law Center, of International Trade, Trump, Appeals, Federal Circuit, Supreme, Federal Communications, Federal Energy Administration, Footwear Distributors, Retailers of America Locations: U.S, Congress, China, United States, Ky, Canada
Here are seven ways a Trump administration could affect your personal finances. During Trump’s first term, the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act temporarily expanded the child tax credit from $1,000 to $2,000. “He will deliver.”TaxesThe Trump administration is expected to focus on extending tax cuts introduced by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act that are set to expire in 2025. The Trump administration wants to “promote choice and competition” and make health care more affordable, according to his policy platform. The Trump administration will likely cut red tape to encourage business and real estate developments.
Persons: Donald Trump, he’d, Trump, JD Vance, Maria Castillo Dominguez, , Karoline Leavitt, Vance, , ” Leavitt, Alan Auerbach, Social Security Trump, Biden, Berkeley’s Auerbach, Joe Biden’s, ” Auerbach, “ They’re, , Trump’s, Auerbach, Sarah Lueck, ” Trump Organizations: CNN, Social Security, Jobs, Valoria Wealth Management, Trump, Urban, Brookings Tax, Tax, UC Berkeley, Center, enrollees, Republicans, Public, Consumer, National Retail Federation, Health, Republican, Center for Budget, Medicare, it’s, Housing
We had no income tax, and all we had was tariffs.”That’s why some Wall Street titans are trying to push for Bessent. Kyle Bass, a billionaire hedge fund investor at Hayman Capital Management, said Lutnick doesn’t have the composition to lead the Treasury. “Scott Bessent is eminently more qualified than Howard Lutnick to run the U.S. Treasury,” Bass posted on X Wednesday. A full week after appearing to decide on nominating Bessent, Trump interviewed him again at Mar-a-Lago. A key Cabinet player, the Treasury secretary advises the president on economic and fiscal matters, including spending and taxes.
Persons: Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Trump, Howard Lutnick, Cantor Fitzgerald, Scott Bessent, ” Musk, , Bessent, , Kyle Bass, Lutnick doesn’t, “ Scott Bessent, ” Bass, “ Scott, I’ve, Bass, Dan Loeb, Scott Lincicome, Lutnick, , Cheney, Lutnick —, Dick Cheney’s, George W, Tennessee Sen, Bill Hagerty, Larry Kudlow, Kudlow, Steven Mnuchin, Mnuchin Organizations: CNN, Trump, , Wall, Fox News, titans, Hayman Capital Management, Treasury, U.S . Treasury, Cato Institute, Federal Reserve, Peterson Institute for International Economics, National Economic Council, America, Policy Institute, Fox Business, Bessent, Mar, Republicans, Treasury Department Locations: America, United States
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