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☆ 3 reasons to worry about July’s weak jobs report — and 1 reason not to panic
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-03 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

The Federal Reserve now has egg on its face after it kept interest rates near a quarter-century high earlier this week. By now, there’s ample evidence that the job market, a key driver of the US economy, has lost steam. Here are three reasons to be worried about July’s shockingly weak jobs report — and one silver lining. Consumer demand itself also hasn’t weakened just yet, despite the highest interest rates in more than two decades. Generally, the Fed makes its decision congruent with what’s going on with inflation or the job market.

Persons: , July’s, ’, ”, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, Elizabeth Crofoot, Alicia Wallace, Jerome Powell, ” Crofoot, ” Michael Gapen, Matt Egan, weren’t, ” Truist’s Keith Lerner, they’ll, hasn’t, ” Chris Rupkey, Alan Blinder, Paul Krugman Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, Bloomberg, Bank of America, Dow, Nasdaq, Wall, Investors, Labor, Citigroup, JPMorgan Locations: New York, decelerate, American

For now, Fed officials think the ongoing slowdown in hiring and a recent tick up in joblessness suggest the labor market is returning to normal after a few years of booming hiring. But while that approach is cautious when it comes to price increases, it could prove to be risky when it comes to the labor market. But that chain reaction can come at a serious cost to the job market. For now, Fed officials think that the ongoing slowdown in hiring and a recent tick up in joblessness signal that labor market conditions are returning to normal after a few years of booming hiring. Fed rate moves take time to work, so if the central bank only starts to cut borrowing costs when the job market is showing serious signs of strain, it could be moving too late.

Persons: ” Jerome H, Powell, Mr, Neil Dutta, ” Mr, “, ” Organizations: Federal Reserve, Macro Locations: joblessness, “

☆ Dow tumbles more than 550 points as investors fear the US economy is faltering
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —Stocks tumbled Thursday after fresh data stoked fears that the US economy is weakening as interest rates stay at a 23-year high. Wage growth is running at a cooler pace and the unemployment rate is now at its highest point in more than two years, at 4.1%. Investors will get their next look at the state of the economy on Friday morning from the July jobs report. Economists polled by FactSet project a net gain of 175,000 jobs — a touch below the average for the past three months — and for the unemployment rate to hold steady. Powell said Wednesday that any significant weakening in the job market would be concerning.

Persons: Stocks, Dow, “, Jerome, Powell, ”, Chris Zaccarelli Organizations: New, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Labor Department, Independent, Alliance, ”, Fed, Investors Locations: New York

☆ Everything you need to know about when a rate cut could happen
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-01 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Now the central bank is mulling over when to do something it hasn’t done since the darkest days of the pandemic: cut interest rates. “A rate cut could be on the table in the September meeting,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday, immediately jolting markets. When will the Fed cut rates? Rate cut probabilityThat said, investors are entirely convinced the Fed will cut rates at their September meeting, according to Fed funds futures data. Torsten Slok, Apollo Global’s chief economist, is maintaining his prior forecast that the Fed won’t cut rates at all this year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, we’re, It’s, Powell, ”, ” Powell, Torsten Slok, Apollo Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, European Central Bank, CNN Locations: New York, “

☆ A September rate cut is still only 50-50, says Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Jim Caron
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA September rate cut is still only 50-50, says Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Jim CaronCNBC’s Steve Liesman with JPMorgan’s David Kelly, Wolfe Research’s Stephanie Roth and Morgan Stanley Investment Management’s Jim Caron, join ‘Power Lunch’ to react to the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, Jim Caron CNBC’s Steve Liesman, JPMorgan’s David Kelly, Wolfe, Stephanie Roth, Jim Caron Organizations: Morgan Stanley Investment, Morgan

☆ What to Watch as the Fed Meets on Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Economists and traders widely expect Fed officials to cut their policy rate at their next meeting, in September. Wall Street will closely watch for any hints about the future in both the Fed’s statement at 2 p.m. and a subsequent news conference with Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the central bank. And Mr. Powell is sure to face questions about how officials are thinking about the potential for moves after that. Watch the Fed’s statement for changes. The Fed’s statement, a slowly changing document that officials release after each two-day meeting, currently states that Fed policymakers expect to hold rates steady until they have “gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably” down.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell Organizations: Federal

☆ Politics Makes the Fed’s Job Trickier, but Doesn’t Drive Its Decisions
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The Fed is expected to start cutting rates in mid-September, not long before voters in the United States head to the polls to elect a new president. Central bankers will meet about rates again on Nov. 6-7, just days after the election. If they lower interest rates before the vote, there is a risk that Republicans will cast it as a politicized move meant to help Democrats: Lower borrowing costs can bolster the economy and markets. Former President Donald J. Trump, the Republican nominee, has already said the Fed should not be cutting rates leading up to November. But central bankers have been clear that they plan to set interest rates with an eye on inflation and job market data, while trying to ignore the election entirely.

Persons: Donald J, Trump Organizations: Federal, Republican Locations: United States

☆ What to do now that the Fed is signaling lower interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

Given the many ways lower rates can affect your finances, here are some things to consider when deciding what steps to take in response. Here’s how lower rates may affect key areas of your financial life, along with tips on what to do about it. If that proves difficult to get, see if you can transfer your balance to a credit card from a credit union or local bank that offers lower rates than the biggest banks. And because many variables determine what that factor will be, it will be hard to figure out the impact of lower interest rates. His advice: Don’t keep more than six months’ to a year’s worth of living expenses in cash or cash equivalents.

Persons: ”, Greg McBride, ” McBride, “, Chris Diodato, Diodato, you’ll, McBride, ” Dodiato, Collin Martin, don’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Bankrate, Schwab Center, Financial Research, AAA Locations: New York, Schwab.com

☆ Watch CNBC’s Fed panel react to the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s Fed panel react to the Federal Reserve’s decision to leave interest rates unchangedCNBC’s Steve Liesman with JPMorgan’s David Kelly, Wolfe Reseearch’s Stephanie Roth and Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron, join ‘Power Lunch’ to react to the Fed’s decision to leave rates unchanged.

Persons: Steve Liesman, JPMorgan’s David Kelly, Wolfe, Stephanie Roth, Morgan Stanley’s Jim Caron Organizations: Watch, Federal

☆ The Fed is about to give more clues as to when it will finally start cutting rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-31 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Fed officials in recent speeches have said they’re pleased with the latest inflation data, acknowledging the steady progress but saying they’re not quite fully comfortable yet with slashing rates. “We set this rate when inflation was over 4%, and inflation is now, let’s call it, 2.5%. He has said that an unexpected weakening in the labor market would prompt the Fed to consider cutting rates sooner than expected. Economic growth in 2024 has been solid so far, despite the highest interest rates in nearly a quarter century. But the Fed’s decision to cut rates will be mainly based on inflation readings, absent any concerning news about the job market.

Persons: they’re, Christopher Waller, Austan Goolsbee, “, Goolsbee, Loretta Mester, Jerome Powell’s, ” Kathleen Grace, Waller, ” Powell, Powell Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Fed, Chicago Fed, Wall Street, Cleveland Fed, CNN, Labor

It’s been a year since interest rates reached a two-decade high, but they may soon begin to reverse course. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady on Wednesday, while signaling that a cut is possible when policy-setting officials meet again in September. If interest rates are elevated for too long, they risk weakening the employment picture. The central bank uses interest rates to influence the broader economy. Home-equity lines of credit and adjustable-rate mortgages — which each carry variable interest rates — generally rise within two billing cycles after a change in the Fed’s rates.

Persons: It’s, ” Jonathan Smoke, that’s, Freddie Mac, ”, Sam Khater, —, “ Banks, Ken Tumin Organizations: Federal, “ Manufacturers, Cox Automotive, Treasury, Savings Vehicles Locations: Edmunds

☆ It’s not the end of the world if the Fed doesn’t cut rates tomorrow
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-30 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —The Federal Reserve is all but certain to hold interest rates steady at its meeting this week. That’s why Torsten Slok, Apollo Global’s chief economist, is maintaining his prior forecast that the Fed won’t cut rates at all this year. “There are still two more CPI releases before the September 18 [Fed] meeting, so we have to wait and see if the downtrend in inflation continues,” he told CNN. Fed officials have signaled that September will be when they finally lower interest rates. The difference between a few months for that initial cut “really doesn’t matter unless there’s some big shock that hits the economy in that time,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said earlier this month.

Persons: Alan Blinder, Paul Krugman —, Blinder, what’s, Brandon Bell, Torsten Slok, Apollo, ”, Sean Snaith, it’s, Christopher Waller, Waller Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, CNN, ” University of Central, ” Locations: New York, ” University of Central Florida, Iran, Israel

☆ What to do when the Fed starts cutting interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-27 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN —Over the past couple of years, the Federal Reserve aggressively raised its key interest rate to a 23-year high to beat down inflation. But, realistically, how much you’ll save when the Fed lowers rates will depend on how quickly it cuts and by how much each time. Since loan amounts are substantial, this is one area where even small cuts in interest rates could make a meaningful difference in what a homebuyer will pay. A couple of quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed won’t make it meaningfully cheaper, McBride said. A few rate cuts won’t make much of a dent in today’s record-high average rate of 20.7%.

Persons: ”, Greg McBride, ” McBride, “, Chris Diodato, McBride, Diodato, you’re, ” Dodiato Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Bankrate, Fed Locations: New York

Since Harris kicked off her presidential campaign, there’s been a string of good news for the US economy. Harris will have Biden’s mostly strong economy to run on. By June 2021, Biden’s sixth month in office, the nation’s inflation rate jumped to more than 5%. After the Federal Reserve hiked interest rate hikes to a 23-year high to stamp out inflation, the economy — eventually — started to run at a slower pace. The Biden administration canceled $168 billion in student loan debt for 4.8 million Americans.

Persons: Joe Biden, Biden, Kamala Harris, Harris, there’s, Biden’s, —, hasn’t, Evan Vucci, Eros Hoagland, Getty, Lina Khan, Jonathan Kanter, Stocks Organizations: CNN, White House, House, Federal, Trump, Biden, Federal Reserve, Gross, Commerce Department, of Labor Statistics, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, AFL, National Labor Relations Board, United Auto Workers, Union, AP Relief, American, ARPA, Medicare, University of North, Hill, Apple, Google, Federal Trade Commission, Department, FTC, Activision, Big Tech, Justice Department, Fed Locations: Ukraine, Van Buren Township , Michigan, University of North Carolina, America, Valley, Silicon Valley

☆ Fed’s Preferred Inflation Number Cooled Overall in June
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure continued to gradually cool overall in June even as a “core” inflation measure held steady, likely keeping the central bank on track for a rate cut later this year without stoking any urgency for a reduction at its meeting next week. A “core” price measure that strips out food and fuel costs for a better sense of the underlying inflation trend proved more stubborn. Yearly core inflation was 2.6 percent, matching its reading in May. And on a monthly basis, both measures of inflation climbed modestly. Overall, the report served as a reminder that inflation is substantially lower than it was at its 2022 peak, but is not yet entirely vanquished.

☆ Inflation is inching closer toward the Fed’s 2% target
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

CNN —Yet another favorable piece of economic data shows that price hikes are slowing and that long-unruly inflation appears to be tamed. On a monthly basis, the price index increased by 0.1%, also landing in line with expectations. Falling energy prices, which dropped 2.1% from May, continued to help put a damper on overall inflation in June, as did goods prices, which dropped 0.2%. Food and services inflation increased just 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively, for the month. Taking inflation out of the equation, real spending was still up for the month, rising 0.2%.

Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Commerce

☆ The stock market is gearing up for its rate cut era
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Data Thursday showed the economy expanded at a robust 2.8% annualized rate during the second quarter, blowing past economists’ expectations. While the Fed has penciled in just one rate cut for this year, traders are betting on up to three, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. While the market was broadly higher on Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Wednesday logged their worst daily performances since 2022. Shares of smaller companies tend to perform poorly when rates are high, since they have more floating rate debt than their larger counterparts. Investors are also picking at other areas of the market poised to gain when rates come down.

Persons: —, Dow, Russell, Stephen Lee Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Big Tech, Nasdaq, MRB Partners, YouTube, Logan Capital Locations: New York

☆ Fed’s key inflation gauge rose 2.5% in June from a year ago, in line with expectations
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Fed officials use the PCE measure as their main baseline to gauge inflation, which continues to run above the central bank's 2% long-range target. An important gauge for the Federal Reserve showed inflation eased slightly from a year ago in June, helping to open the way for a widely anticipated September interest rate cut. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, showed a monthly increase of 0.2% and 2.6% on the year, both also in line with expectations. Goods prices fell 0.2% on the month, while services increased 0.2%. The report also indicated that personal income rose just 0.2%, below the 0.4% estimate.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Fed

☆ GDP: The US economy is pulling off something historic
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-25 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +1 min

Washington CNN —The US economy is on the verge of an extremely rare achievement. Businesses are continuing to invest and a key gauge of consumer demand has been robust this year. As the economy continued to expand from April through June, inflation resumed a downward trend, the latest GDP report showed, and seems to be on track to slowing further toward the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. Wall Street traders are convinced that the Fed will roll out the first rate cut in September, and key Fed officials have given subtle signals that they’ve become more comfortable about eventually slashing rates. America’s economy is about to stick what’s called a “soft landing,” which is when inflation returns to the Fed’s target without a recession — a feat that’s only happened once, during the 1990s, according to some economists.

Organizations: Washington CNN, Commerce Department, Federal, Wall

☆ Takeaways from latest GDP report showing US economy is making history
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-25 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

Separate data on spending shows that American shoppers are still shopping. That measure strengthened in the second quarter, rising to a 2.9% rate compared to 2.6% seen earlier this year. Generally, one risk that comes with an economy that’s expanding robustly is that price pressures can either get stuck or heat up. Businesses are still spending, but less on thisBusinesses invested much more in the second quarter than in the first three months of the year. The measure for that — known as “nonresidential fixed investment” — rose to a 5.2% rate in the second quarter, up from 4.4% in the first quarter.

Persons: That’s, pare, ”, Jamie Cox, ” Scott Helfstein, ” Oren Klachkin Organizations: Washington CNN, Gross, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, PCE, Harris Financial Group, “, Nationwide

☆ Stock futures rise slightly as investors prepare for Fed’s preferred inflation gauge: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-25 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures rose modestly on Thursday evening as the major averages head for weekly losses and investors anticipated a reading of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 42 points, or just over 0.1%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed about 0.1% each. The activity seemed to be part of a broader rotation into small caps and more cyclical areas of the market. ET, traders will watch for the June reading of the personal consumption expenditures report, an inflation reading that's preferred by central bank policymakers.

Persons: Kamala Harris, Dexcom, Adam Turnquist, Dow, Dow Jones Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Dow, Bristol Myers Squibb, Colgate, Palmolive, 3M Locations: New York City, Stock, Michigan

☆ Donald Trump says he wouldn’t fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Don’t hold your breath
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington CNN —Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump would not fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if the former president wins the election in November, according to a Bloomberg interview published Tuesday. Powell, a registered Republican, was first tapped to helm the central bank by Trump in 2017. That still wouldn’t stop Trump from pushing to oust Powell before the Fed head’s term concludes in 2026. “He sued for reinstatement and even though he died while the litigation was pending, the Supreme Court still took up his case. It answers to Congress, not the US president, according to the law that established the central bank.

Persons: Donald Trump, Jerome Powell, he’d, Powell, Trump, “, he’s, reappoint Powell, Powell isn’t, William Humphrey, Franklin Roosevelt, ” Organizations: Washington CNN, Republican, Bloomberg, Trump, Fed, Democratic, House, Federal Trade Commission, Brookings Institution, Fed’s, Governors

☆ Fed’s Powell Welcomes Cooler Inflation but Steers Clear of Rate Cut Timing
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Jerome H. Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve, avoided sending a clear signal about when the central bank would begin to cut interest rates even as he welcomed a recent cool-down in inflation. “Today I’m not going to be sending any signals one way or the other on any particular meeting,” Mr. Powell said while speaking at the Economic Club of Washington on Monday. “Just to ruin the fun right at the beginning.”The Fed’s chair was speaking after several inflation reports in a row suggested that price increases were moderating in earnest, a development that had spurred some economists to think that it could make sense for officials to cut interest rates sooner rather than later. The Fed meets at the end of July and then again in September, and investors have been largely expecting that officials will begin to lower borrowing costs at the September meeting. Economists at Goldman Sachs wrote in a research note on Monday that cutting rates this month could be appropriate, given how much inflation had come down.

Persons: Jerome H, Powell, I’m, ” Mr, “, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Federal Reserve, Economic, of Washington, Fed, Goldman

☆ Your bank is about to reveal key information about the US economy’s health
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Dave Sekera, chief US market strategist at Morningstar, says that he’s watching for insights on banks’ delinquency rates. Consumers have increasingly fallen behind on or missed payments in recent months as they get squeezed by high interest rates. But banks could see higher losses compared to 2023 if the economy were to experience a downturn, the Fed warned. Investors are wagering that the central bank will begin easing rates as soon as September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. “The worst outcome for all of us is what you call stagflation: higher rates and recession,” Dimon said in an interview with CNBC.

Persons: Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Dave Sekera, Stocks, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Matt Egan, it’s, ”, Joe Brusuelas, Mark Zandi, ” Zandi, “, Jerome Powell, Erika Tulfo, “ It’s, Neil Saunders, Abrigo, Gen Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, United, United States ’, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Morningstar, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, JPMorgan, CNBC, Federal, RSM, “, Moody’s, CNN, GlobalData, Apple Locations: New York, United States, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, China

☆ Why the Fed is stressed about presidential elections
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

New York CNN —Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sent investors mixed messages on Tuesday during his semiannual testimony to Congress. Powell is stressed about the election: Powell was asked by multiple senators about White House politics, which he dodged. While the Fed head noted that policy decisions are data dependent, “elevated inflation is not the only risk we face,” he said. The September Fed meeting will be “live”: Powell noted multiple times that every Fed policy decision is made “live” using the latest available economic data – in other words, decisions aren’t made in advance. About 75% of investors think the Fed will cut rates, and about 25% think they’ll remain the same.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, “, Donald Trump, reappoint Powell, ”, Joseph Brusuelas, Trump, Gregory Daco, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, Larkin, don’t, aren’t, David Rubenstein, he’ll, Airbnb, Isabelle Chapman, Majlie, Puy Kamp, Audrey Ash, Chris Isidore . Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN — Federal, White, “, Reserve, RSM, Federal Reserve, US Consumer, Treasury, Fed, Economics, Washington DC, Jackson, CNN, Boeing, Alaska Airlines Locations: New York, Powell, Washington, Alaska

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