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CFTC data show that funds and speculators are holding a chunky net short yen position worth around $8.2 billion. Contrast that with the euro position, and it is not difficult to envisage a potential narrowing of the gulf in the weeks and months ahead. Citi's U.S. economic surprises index has been positive since May and the euro zone index has been in negative territory since May. Euro zone interest rate traders reckon the ECB is done raising rates, and are now betting on around 70 bps of rate cuts next year. "Today's ECB policy update and stronger U.S. data for Q3 is further encouraging those expectations placing downward pressure on EUR/USD," MUFG's Lee Hardman wrote on Thursday.
Persons: Pedro Nunes, gunning, MUFG's Lee Hardman, Jamie McGeever, David Evans Organizations: Bank of, REUTERS, Rights, Central, ECB, U.S, HSBC, Futures, CFTC, Bank of Japan, Deutsche Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Bank of Portugal, Carregado, Alenquer, Portugal, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, U.S
European markets opened mixed on Thursday as investors in the region look ahead to the European Central Bank's next rate decision. Autos fell 1.4% as initial optimism over an EU probe into Chinese electric vehicle subsidies soured over fears of retaliatory action. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had forecast an increase of 3.6%. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy and is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, rose by 0.3% on the month and 4.3% on the year. Economists polled by Dow Jones signaled rises of 0.2% and 4.3%, respectively.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Central Bank's, EU, ECB, U.S . Department of Labor, Federal
A Wall Street sign is pictured outside the New York Stock Exchange in New York, October 28, 2013. Investors await August consumer prices data, due on Wednesday, and producer prices scheduled on Thursday, followed by the Fed's policy decision on Sept. 20. A recent uptick in oil prices and strong economic data have fueled concerns over stubborn inflation, clouding the outlook for an end to U.S. monetary tightening. Investors will also monitor the European Central Bank's policy decision on Thursday, where it is seen holding rates after nine consecutive hikes. ET, Dow e-minis were down 48 points, or 0.14%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 9 points, or 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 27.5 points, or 0.18%.
Persons: Carlo Allegri, Wall, Morgan Stanley, BoE, Mohit Kumar, Ankika Biswas, Shristi, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Kappa, Dow, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Investors, Fed, ECB, Jefferies, Dow e, Oracle, Paramount Global, Amusements, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Bengaluru
Wall Street gains, dollar eases ahead of CPI report
  + stars: | 2023-09-11 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
[1/2] People are seen on Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 19, 2021. The relatively languid session appeared to be the calm before a storm of U.S. economic data this week, with Wednesday's crucial consumer prices report (CPI) paramount. "Investors are focusing on how they will respond to Wednesday's CPI report," Stovall added. Emerging market stocks rose 0.48%. Gold prices headed higher in opposition to the dollar.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Sam Stovall, Stovall, Kazuo Ueda, Sterling, Brent, Stephen Culp, Amanda Cooper, William Maclean, Angus MacSwan Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank of, Nasdaq, Tesla Inc, CFRA Research, CPI, U.S, Financial, Bank of Japan, Dow Jones, Bank's, Japan's Nikkei, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bank of Japan, New York, U.S . Federal, Japan, Asia, Pacific, Russian, Saudi, London
The Commission forecast euro zone consumer inflation of 5.6% in 2023 and 2.9% in 2024, both well above the European Central Bank's target of 2.0%. Inflation this year is to be lower than the 5.8% forecast in May, but higher than previously forecast in 2024, as the May forecast was for 2.8%. The ECB has been rapidly raising rates since the middle of 2022 to stem record price growth, making credit for the economy more expensive - a factor that hit the growth forecast. Germany, Europe's biggest economy, will shrink 0.4% this year, the Commission forecast, revising down a 0.2% growth prediction from May. But France and Spain will grow faster than previously expected in 2023 , the Commission said, projecting 1.0% and 2.2% growth respectively instead of the previously seen 0.7% and 1.9%.
Persons: Jan Strupczewski, Philip Blenkinsop Organizations: ECB, Thomson Locations: BRUSSELS, Germany, Europe, Europe's, Italy, Netherlands, France, Spain
European markets climbed Monday morning, kicking off a busy week of economic data releases around the world. Basic resources gained 2.7%, as stocks including Anglo American and Rio Tinto traded higher following gains in metals prices. European marketsInvestors are looking forward to key U.S. inflation data in the week ahead, with the latest consumer price index due Wednesday and producer price index Thursday. The readings come after a string of stronger-than-expected economic data points last week renewed worries that the U.S. Federal Reserve could raise rates more than previously expected. Asia-Pacific markets are also gearing up for big data releases this week.
Persons: Brendan McDermid Organizations: Rio Tinto, Investors, U.S . Federal, Traders, Reuters, Central Bank's Locations: London, Europe, Asia, Pacific, India, China
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz speaks during a plenum session of the lower house of parliament, Bundestag, for a general debate on the Federal Government policy in Berlin, Germany September 6, 2023. The chancellor announced a new "Germany pact" with a bundle of measures aimed at reducing bureaucracy, speeding up approval processes for new construction and digitising citizens’ access to key government services. The chancellor rejected the idea of fresh stimulus to boost an economy battling high inflation, financing costs and a drop in exports. Such sums showed Germany was holding its own vis-à-vis the U.S. and the $430 billion U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, he said. For a special Reuters World News podcast on what is ailing the German economy please click here .
Persons: Olaf Scholz, Annegret, Scholz, Sarah Marsh, Andreas Rinke, Thomas Escritt, Miranda Murray, Friederike Heine Our Organizations: Bundestag, Federal Government, REUTERS, Scholz's Social Democrats, Deutsche, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Berlin, Germany, BERLIN, Europe's
European shares flat as Volkswagen, Aurubis offset energy boost
  + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
The German share price index DAX graph is pictured as the German index celebrates its 35th birthday at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, August 15, 2023. By 0711 GMT, the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) was flat at 457.9 points, but on track for its second weekly gain, if trend holds. Germany's DAX (.GDAXI) fell 0.2% as Aurubis (NAFG.DE) slumped 18% after Europe's largest copper producer said it would not reach its full-year profit outlook after identifying "considerable discrepancies" in target inventories. The broader mining sector (.SXPP), however, gained 0.7% after tracking a rally in most base metal prices. Shares of Volkswagen AG (VOWG.DE) slipped 2.5% after UBS downgraded the German automaker to "sell" from "neutral".
Persons: Germany's DAX, Shashwat Chauhan, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Volkswagen, Volkswagen AG, UBS, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, OPEC, Bengaluru
[1/2] Euro and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. Money markets raised their bets on a September rate hike from the ECB, pricing in a 60% chance of a 25 basis-point move. "One key input to arrive at a final assessment is the inflation data this week," he added. The dollar index - which measures the currency against six major peers including the yen and euro - slipped 0.1% to 103.47. INTERVENTION TERRITORYThe dollar rose 0.35% to 146.38 yen .
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Benjamin Schroeder, pare, Charu, Jerome Powell, Naoki Tamura, bitcoin, cryptocurrency, Joice Alves, Kevin Buckland, Tom Westbrook, Miral Fahmy, Alex Richardson Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, European Central Bank, Federal, Reuters, Money, ECB, ING, Fed, Saxo . Money, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, People's Bank of, Thomson Locations: Germany, Spain, North Rhine, Westphalia, NRW, People's Bank of China, London, Tokyo
Passersby are reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. "They almost certainly have to hike again this year because today's inflation data shows there's still more work to do." INFLATION WATCHGovernment bond yields in the euro zone rose broadly after inflation data suggested the ECB may still have to hike rates again. Germany's two-year bond yields rose 7 bps to 3.09% . Spanish inflation rose 2.6% in August, as economists polled by Reuters had expected.
Persons: Issei Kato, Patrick Armstrong, there's, SEB, Elisabet Kopelman, Jerome Powell's, Naomi Rovnick, Shashwat Chauhan, Mark Potter, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, Nasdaq, Wall, SEB Group, Fed, Reuters, Bank's, U.S, Treasury, Brent, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Spain, North Rhine Westphalia, Germany's, United States, Gulf, Mexico, Bengaluru
On Wednesday, European shares nudged higher (.STOXX), while a gauge of Asian shares gained 0.35% (.MIAPJ0000PUS) and Japan's blue-chip Nikkei touched its highest in over two weeks (.N225). Spanish inflation rose 2.6% in August, as economists polled by Reuters had expected. Economists polled by Reuters expect the headline euro zone inflation rate to have moderated to 5.1% in August from 5.3% in July, still far above the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% goal. Euro zone inflation has exceeded the target level for two years. Germany's two-year yield rose 7 bps to 3.099% after regional Germany inflation data.
Persons: Issei Kato, SEB, Elisabet Kopelman, Jerome Powell's, Europe's, Sylvia Ardagna, Ardagna, Germany's, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Naomi Rovnick, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: REUTERS, Nikkei, SEB Group, Fed, Reuters, Bank's, Barclays, ECB, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, SINGAPORE, Asia, Spain, Germany, North Rhine Westphalia, Germany's
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON/TOKYO, Aug 30 (Reuters) - The euro eased against the dollar on Wednesday as investors looked to more labour market data in the U.S. and inflation data in the euro zone to provide clues on the path for central banks policies. "One key input to arrive at a final assessment is the inflation data this week," he added. The euro eased 0.2% to $1.0856. The dollar index - which measures the currency against six major peers including the yen and euro - edged 0.1% higher at 103.67. INTERVENTION TERRITORYThe dollar rose 0.38% to 146.43 yen .
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Benjamin Schroeder, pare, Matt Simpson, Jerome Powell, Naoki Tamura, bitcoin, cryptocurrency, Joice Alves, Kevin Buckland, Tom Westbrook, Miral Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Money, ECB, ING, Index, Fed, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, People's Bank of, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, U.S, Spain, Germany, Westphalia, NRW, People's Bank of China, London, Tokyo
Stocks swoon, dollar firms as Powell speech looms
  + stars: | 2023-08-25 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. Crude oil found its footing around one-month lows, but remained on course for a second weekly decline amid a firmer dollar and simmering China-centred worries about global growth. "However, there is also no real reason for Powell to strike a dovish tone," he added, "and that could mean an ugly end to the week for stocks, while the dollar shines." Against Japan's currency , the dollar edged tentatively back toward last week's nine-month high of 146.545, trading as strong as 146.21. In energy markets, crude prices rose slightly on Friday, but remained on track for weekly declines of between 1.5-2.5%.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Kazuo Ueda, Christine Lagarde, Powell, Matt Simpson, Simpson, Patrick Harker, Susan Collins, Joseph Capurso, Brent, Kevin Buckland, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Federal, People's Bank of, Bank, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Nvidia, Advantest, Fed, Boston Philadelphia Fed, CNBC, Yahoo, U.S, Bank of Japan, CBA, Treasury, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, . U.S, China, People's Bank of China, Asia, Tokyo, Jackson
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. Crude oil found its footing around one-month lows, but remained on course for a second weekly decline amid a firmer dollar and simmering China-centered worries about global growth. "However, there is also no real reason for Powell to strike a dovish tone," he added, "and that could mean an ugly end to the week for stocks, while the dollar shines." Against Japan's currency , the dollar edged back toward last week's nine-month high of 146.545, last trading at 146.15. The Chinese yuan traded slightly weaker in offshore markets , slipping 0.07% to 7.2866 per dollar.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Kazuo Ueda, Christine Lagarde, Powell, Matt Simpson, Simpson, Patrick Harker, Brent, Kevin Buckland, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Federal, People's Bank of, Bank, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Nvidia, Advantest, Philadelphia Fed, CNBC, U.S, Treasury, West Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, . U.S, China, People's Bank of China, Asia, Tokyo
Summer of angst as bond yields surge and global stocks wobble
  + stars: | 2023-08-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Meanwhile, U.S. real yields, which show what investors can expect to earn on government bonds after adjusting for inflation, stand near their highest point since 2009. Benchmark yields also guide other key economic rates, raising the cost of capital as they climb. In Europe, a key long-term gauge of market inflation expectations remains well above the European Central Bank's 2% inflation target . Reuters GraphicsHigher bond yields, falling equities and a rising dollar are all tightening financial conditions fast, adding to investor concerns. Property accounts for roughly a quarter of China's economy, which is already suffering from tepid domestic consumption, faltering factory activity, rising unemployment and weak overseas demand.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Hong, Yoruk Bahceli, Alun John, Dhara Ranasinghe, Lewis Krauskopf, Vincent Flasseur, Ira Iosebashvili, Mark Potter Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Japan’s Nikkei, Reuters, Treasury, Central, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Europe, Britain, China's
Barclays identified several European stocks that it says could benefit from an environment of falling inflation. As interest rates remain elevated, inflation is expected to fall further toward the European Central Bank's 2% target in the coming months. The below table highlights 10 "disinflation winners" from Barclays with the biggest upside: Delivery Hero Among the stocks highlighted, shares of food delivery company Delivery Hero had the biggest upside potential. Lloyds Banking Group Barclays expects shares of U.K.-based lender Lloyds Banking Group to rise 64% over the next 12 months to £0.70 ($0.89). Together with falling provision risks we expect higher profits to drive outsized capital returns," said Barclays' analysts led by Aman Rakka in a note to clients on July 27.
Persons: Emmanuel Cau, Andrew Ross, Aman Rakka, Larissa van Deventer Organizations: Barclays, Central, Lloyds Banking Group Barclays, Lloyds Banking Group, Lloyds, Legal, General Barclays Locations: U.S
Morning Bid: Germany to kick off CPI mega-run
  + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, August 1, 2023. Still, investors' focal point for the week is the U.S. consumer price index amid recent goldilocks data and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that's given strength to the economic soft-landing narrative. Fed officials continue to emerge from their silence this week after hiking rates another 25 basis points at their last meeting. Investors betting the Fed has reached the end of rate increases will have another chance to gauge their theory when Philadelphia Fed President Harker and Richmond Fed President Barkin speak on Tuesday. Their remarks will be top of investor watchlists after mixed messages about the future rate path from New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman on Monday.
Persons: Brigid Riley Germany, Jerome Powell that's, Harker, Barkin, John Williams, Michelle Bowman, Fed's Harker, Brigid Riley, Christopher Cushing Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Federal Reserve, Central Bank's, Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Fed, New York Fed, Bank of Japan, CPI, Hungary CPI, Bayer, InterContinental Hotels, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, China, United States, U.S, Richmond, New, Asia, Hungary
Italian banking shares took a beating on Tuesday morning after Italy's cabinet approved a 40% windfall tax on lenders' profits in 2023. As of around 9:45 a.m. in Rome, BPER Banca shares had plunged 8% and Intesa Sanpaolo was down 7%, while Banco BPM, UniCredit and Finecobank all dropped more than 6%. The one-off tax on extra profits will be equal to around 19% of banks' net profits for the year, analysts at Citi estimated based on currently available data. "We see this tax as substantially negative for banks given both the impact on capital and profit as well as for cost of equity of bank shares. Banks are required to pay the tax within six months after the end of the financial year.
Persons: Carlo Nordio, Adolfo Urso, Matteo Salvini, Francesco Lollobrigida, Orazio Schillaci, Palazzo Chigi, Sanpaolo, Salvini, Azzurra Guelfi, Banks Organizations: Enterprise, Transport, Agriculture, Health, Palazzo, Ministers, BPER Banca, Banco, European, Citi, Citi Equity Research, UCI Locations: Italy, Rome
Italy approves 40% windfall tax on banks, to be limited to 2023
  + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
FILE PHOTO-Matteo Salvini, Italian infrastructure minister and deputy PM, attends a news conference for the government's first budget in Rome, Italy November 22, 2022. REUTERS/Remo Casilli/File PhotoROME, Aug 7 (Reuters) - Italy's cabinet on Monday approved a 40% windfall tax on banks for 2023, with proceedings to be used to help mortgage holders and cut taxes, the deputy prime minister said. Salvini said the 40% levy on banks' extra profits that amount to several billion euros will feed items such as a reduction of the tax wedge, tax cuts and financial support to holders of mortgages on first homes. The Italian government, including Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, repeatedly criticised the ECB over repeated interest rate hikes. Reporting by Angelo Amante and Federico Maccioni; Editing by Leslie Adler and Grant McCoolOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Matteo Salvini, Remo Casilli, Salvini, Giorgia Meloni, Angelo Amante, Federico Maccioni, Leslie Adler, Grant McCool Organizations: REUTERS, European, Reuters, Treasury, ECB, Thomson Locations: Rome, Italy
LONDON — European markets were lower Monday as investors digest a heavy week of earnings and look ahead to euro zone inflation data and a key policy decision from the Bank of England. Food and beverage stocks were 0.9% lower in early deals, while oil and gas stocks were up 0.3%. Preliminary euro zone inflation data will be released at 11:00 a.m. CET, with a further fall from June's 5.5% expected to provide some relief for policymakers. The European Central Bank's Christine Lagarde signaled last week that the bank was "open minded" about whether it would raise rates in September as inflation shows signs of easing. The move would mark its 14th consecutive rise as U.K. inflation remains high, having fallen only slightly to 7.9% in June.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, France's Legrand, Pearson Organizations: Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, Nasdaq, Heineken Locations: June's, Asia, Pacific, Europe, Netherlands
Euro zone inflation fell in July, and new growth figures showed economic activity picking up in the second quarter of this year — but economists still fear a recession could be in the cards. Headline inflation in the euro area was 5.3% in July, according to preliminary data released Monday, lower than the 5.5% registered in June. The euro area has been battling high inflation for the past year, leading the ECB to undergo a full year of consecutive rate hikes in an effort to bring prices down. Initially, much of the price pressures in the euro area were coming from high energy costs, but in recent months food prices have contributed the most. This month, food, alcohol and tobacco once again drove inflation — prices rose by 10.8% in July, in a hike that was nevertheless lower than in previous months.
Persons: Andrew Kenningham Organizations: Central, Capital Economics, ECB Locations: Europe
ECB's Lagarde says latest growth data 'encouraging'
  + stars: | 2023-07-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
FRANKFURT, July 30 (Reuters) - Latest data about economic output in France, Germany and Spain is "quite encouraging" and confirms the European Central Bank's expectations, ECB President Christine Lagarde said in an interview published on Sunday. "The second quarter GDP figures for France, Germany and Spain are quite encouraging," Lagarde told French daily Le Figaro. "They support our scenario of GDP growth of 0.9% in the euro area this year." Reporting by Francesco Canepa; Editing by Andrew CawthorneOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Figaro, Francesco Canepa, Andrew Cawthorne Organizations: Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, France, Germany, Spain
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB interest rate hike isn't enough to cool inflation in a timely manner, professor saysAthanasios Orphanides, professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management and former governor at the Central Bank of Cyprus, discusses the European Central Bank's 25-basis-point interest rate hike.
Persons: Athanasios Orphanides Organizations: MIT Sloan School of Management, Central Bank of Cyprus, Central
Summary German inflation falls modestly in JulyStronger declines expected starting in SeptemberCore inflation easesBERLIN, July 28 (Reuters) - German inflation fell in July, resuming the decline since the start of the year that was interrupted the previous month due to the base effects in June's data. Although inflation fell in July, economists called the pace of decline sluggish mainly due to the comparison with last year. By comparison, inflation fell to 5.0% in France and it rose to 2.1% in Spain. Italian and euro zone inflation data is due on Monday. Economists polled by Reuters expect euro zone inflation to fall to 5.2% in July from 5.5% in June.
Persons: Ralph Solveen, Thomas Gitzel, Maria Martinez, Miranda Murray, Rachel More, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Union, Analysts, Reuters, European Central Bank, VP Bank Group, ECB, Thomson Locations: BERLIN, France, Spain, Germany
Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe Bank of Japan announced Friday "greater flexibility" in its monetary policy — surprising global financial markets. The central bank loosened its yield curve control — or YCC — in an unexpected move with wide-ranging ramifications. When asked if the central bank had shifted from dovish to neutral, he said: "That's not the case. MUFG said that Friday's "flexibility" tweak shows the central bank is not yet ready to end this policy measure.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Shigeto Nagai, CNBC's, , Duncan Wrigley, MUFG, Governor Ueda, Michael Metcalfe, Metcalfe Organizations: Bank of Japan, Bloomberg, Getty, of Japan, Nasdaq, Oxford Economics, disinflation, Capital Economics, U.S, U.S . Federal, Bank, Pantheon, Street Global Locations: Europe, Japan, U.S ., China, dovish
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