What’s happening in the economy now will have a big effect — perhaps, a decisive one — on the presidential election and control of Congress in 2024.
Right now, that model, created and run by Ray Fair, a Yale economist, shows that the 2024 national elections are very much up for grabs.
The economy is strong enough for the incumbent Democrats to win the popular vote for the presidency and Congress next year, Professor Fair’s projections find.
Persistent — though declining — inflation also gives the Republicans a reasonable chance of victory, the model shows.
Both outcomes are within the model’s margin for error.
Persons:
Ray Fair, it’s
Organizations:
Yale