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TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares mostly sank Tuesday over worries about a possible U.S. government shutdown and the troubled Chinese economy. Political Cartoons View All 1179 ImagesRealization is sinking in that the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates high well into next year. Higher yields are at the head of a long line of concerns weighing on Wall Street. On Wall Street, Amazon rose 1.7% and was the strongest single force pushing up on the S&P 500. Also on the losing end of Wall Street were stocks of travel-related companies, which slumped under the weight of worries about higher fuel costs.
Persons: Australia's, Korea's Kospi, Evergrande, , Tina Teng, That’s, ” Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, what’s, haven’t, Chris Larkin, Morgan Stanley, Brent, Stan Choe Organizations: TOKYO, CMC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Big Tech, Netflix, Walt Disney Co, Warner Brothers Discovery, Southwest Airlines, Norwegian Cruise, Exxon Mobil, ConocoPhillips, U.S, AP Locations: Hong, Shanghai, Canada, U.S, Anthropic, Norwegian, New York
Stocks have slipped in September as interest rates, bond yields, and oil prices increase. The Federal Reserve plans to keep interest rates high to stop persistent inflation. Here are 22 stocks that Goldman Sachs believes are well-positioned to benefit from elevated rates. There are several serious threats to US stocks right now, including high interest rates, as well as rising bond yields and oil prices. Each was addressed in a September 22 note from David Kostin, the chief US equity strategist at Goldman Sachs.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Keller, David Kostin Organizations: Federal Reserve
CNBC Daily Open: Does the BOJ have a communication issue?
  + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Smith is retiring effective Dec. 4 and will remain with the company until Jan. 2 for the CEO transition. Coy launchHuawei kept mum on any details about its new phone or reported advanced chip breakthrough at a high-profile launch event Monday. Instead, the company teased two new electric cars — its first sedan and a high-end SUV — and launched new wireless earbuds, among other products.
Persons: Blue, Bob Smith, Dave Limp, Smith, OpenAI's, Trip.com, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin Organizations: CNBC, Treasury, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Amazon, Blue Origin, Microsoft, Google, Coy, Huawei Locations: China, Singapore, Australia, Thailand
Treasury yields jumped last week, with the 10-year Treasury hitting its highest yield since 2007. Long duration stocks, which have the bulk of their projected earnings and cash flow far off in the future, have started to underperform short duration stocks that are generating significant cash already. For investors looking for short duration stocks that have not yet started to outperform, shares of rental car company Hertz Global are down 20% month to date. Overall, the short duration stocks highlighted by Goldman have lower valuations and a stronger near-term earnings picture than the long-duration stocks. 50% of companies in the Long Duration basket are expected to post negative EPS in 2023, compared with 6% for Short Duration," Kostin said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Goldman, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Treasury, Sinclair, U.S . Steel, . Steel, Hertz Locations: LSEG .
More than 400 initial public offerings took place between 2020 and 2021, as well as 810 SPACs, according to Goldman Sachs. "Indeed, the 2020-21 wave of IPOs had abysmal performance relative to history," Kostin wrote. Goldman SachsIt's not that the companies that went public during these years were necessarily bad investments, Kostin added. "Since 1995, IPOs pricing above the range have typically risen by 38% on their first trading day," Kostin wrote. With capital markets closed for nearly two years, unprofitable companies have been forced to fund operations by spending cash balances," Kostin wrote.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, SPACs, dodo, David Kostin, IPOs, Kostin, Russell, Goldman Sachs It's, you'd, Goldman Sachs Kostin
Is the IPO market really opening up? Over the weekend, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin said the IPO market was becoming more "normalized," meaning issuance was starting to pick up. That means investors are looking for 1) much lower valuations, and 2) profitability. How excited are they about this "reopening" and much lower valuations? Lower valuations for investors and venture capital The good news is, lower valuations give investors on the first day of trading a greater chance at making money after trading starts.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Goldman's Kostin, Eric Bellomo, PitchBook's, FactSet, Nizar Tarhuni, Instacart, Catalyst, Rowe Price, you'll, Goldman, What's, Nizar Organizations: DST Global Locations: IPOs
Wary of high valuations Goldman warned investors about IPOs that have high valuations. "Investors should also be wary of IPOs that come to market at extremely high valuations," Kostin said. Day 1 indicator IPOs that pop dramatically on the day that they debut can typically sustain their rally in the short run, Goldman said. Conversely, IPOs that fall on their first day typically decline by an additional 4% over the subsequent three months. But Goldman noted that the first day indicator doesn't correctly predict IPOs' long-term performance.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Russell, David Kostin, Kostin Organizations: Arm Holdings, Wall, Reserve, Turo, SoftBank
"As cash yields remain elevated and inflation has cooled significantly from last year's levels, cash yields moved into positive territory on a real, inflation-adjusted basis after a few years of negative real yields," said Veronica Willis, global investment strategist at the firm. The pros weigh in on whether it's a good idea to stay in cash for the remainder of the year. Cash to 'outperform' stocks In a Sept. 7 note, Barclays said it believes cash will, in the fourth quarter, outperform stocks for a second straight quarter. So, for a second straight quarter, we prefer the company of cash over stocks and bonds," Barclays wrote, describing major asset classes as "still unattractive." "If short-term interest rates fall, short-term investments or cash investors will need to reinvest at a lower rate, reducing future returns.
Persons: it's, Veronica Willis, Cash, David Kostin, CNBC's, JPMorgan, Ray Dalio, Willis, Schroders, , Balakrishner, Michael Bloom Organizations: U.S . Federal, Treasury, Fargo Investment Institute, Barclays, Billionaire, Bridgewater Associates, Milken Institute Asia Summit, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute Locations: Fargo, U.S, Singapore, Wells Fargo
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Goldman Sachs' David Kostin on market outlookDavid Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, joins 'Sqauwk on the Street' to discuss what he calls the 'choppy path' ahead for the equity market.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStock market pricing in 'soft landing' enviroment, says Goldman's David KostinDavid Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, joins 'Sqauwk on the Street' to discuss what he calls the 'choppy path' ahead for the equity market.
Persons: Goldman's David Kostin David Kostin, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Email
The uncertainty in the economic picture could put continuous pressure on U.S. equities into the end of 2023, and investors should focus on stocks that are returning cash to shareholders, according to Goldman Sachs. "The economic growth and inflation data flow could create a choppy path for equities in the next few months," David Kostin, Goldman's head of U.S. equity strategy, said in a note to clients. Goldman is not recommending stocks that have dividend and buyback programs in place, rather than companies using cash on capital expenditures as well as research and development. The total cash return basket includes stocks like Tapestry, MGM Resorts and Lowe's. Goldman's target is well above the average forecast of 4,372 among the top 15 Wall Street strategists, according to CNBC Market Strategist Survey.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Goldman, Kostin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: MGM Resorts, CNBC Market, Survey Locations: U.S
The market has been a fertile stock picking environment for mutual funds and hedge funds this year, and Goldman Sachs said it found a handful of stocks loved by both cohorts. It then compiled the "Hedge Fund VIP basket," consisting of 50 stocks that most frequently appear among the 10 largest holdings of hedge funds, and the "Mutual Fund Overweight basket," consisting of 50 stocks in which mutual funds are the most overweight. Goldman found that there are six "shared favorites" among hedge funds and mutual funds last quarter, including Cigna , Fiserv , Uber , Workday , Visa and Mastercard . An equal-weighted list of shared favorites has generated an annualized return of 14%, compared to 13% for the S & P 500. That said, both hedge funds and mutual funds benefited from the broader cyclical rally, given their increased exposure to cyclical sectors such as energy stocks, Goldman said.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Stocks, David Kostin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: " Mutual Fund, Visa, Mastercard
David Kostin of Goldman Sachs noted that companies with low labor costs can resist high inflation. "Nonfarm payrolls increased by 187k in July and the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, just 10 bp above its 50-year low," Kostin wrote. "As a result, its earnings would face a 1% EPS hit in the face of 100 bp acceleration in labor costs." In fact, Goldman Sachs has a sector-neutral basket of stocks with low labor costs that has underperformed the market year-to-date. The 50 stocks belonging to Goldman Sachs' low-labor-cost basket are below.
Persons: David Kostin, Goldman Sachs, Kostin, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Federal Reserve, Co, Fed, Labor, Consumer Staples Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, bullish
A flurry of buyback activity should give the equity market a boost in the coming weeks, and some stocks stand to benefit more than others, according to Goldman Sachs. August has seen strong repurchase volume from large-cap companies with executions standing at about 40% above the average 2023 level, Goldman said. Goldman's buyback basket of 50 sector-neutral companies with above-average repurchase activity has historically performed particularly well following the second-quarter earnings season, Goldman said. The stocks in Goldman's basket included Tapestry , Lockheed Martin, HP , Dollar General , Applied Materials and Bath & Body Works . Still, higher interest rates could cause a slowdown in buybacks this year as many companies tend to issue debt to repurchase stocks.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Kostin, Lockheed Martin Organizations: HP, Dollar, Applied Materials, Body
Here are some of the tickers on my radar for Tuesday, Aug. 22 taken directly from my reporter's notebook:Goldman Sachs Chief U.S. Equity Strategist David Kostin on AI trade likes Club names Nvidia Microsoft Alphabet Amazon Meta Platform SalesforceMorgan Stanley monthly data tracker on Club name AppleZoomBaiduIf you like this story, sign up for Jim Cramer's Top 10 Morning Thoughts on the Market email newsletter for free.
Persons: Goldman, David Kostin, Salesforce Morgan Stanley, Jim Cramer's Organizations: Goldman Sachs Chief U.S, Equity, Nvidia Microsoft, Apple Locations: Goldman Sachs
Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose Tuesday after Goldman Sachs analysts listed the tech name as a long-term beneficiary of artificial intelligence adoption. CNBC's Jim Cramer echoed the Wall Street firm's sentiments, adding Marvell is "sitting on a gold mine" as its semiconductors and other equipment are essential to building out the nascent AI tech. Marvell used to be in the Trust. If you like this story, sign up for Jim Cramer's Top 10 Morning Thoughts on the Market email newsletter for free. The analysts at Goldman also think Club names like Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Salesforce (CRM) and Meta Platforms (META) will get a further boost from AI.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, CNBC's Jim Cramer, Marvell, Cramer, Jim Cramer's, Goldman, David Kostin Organizations: Marvell Technology, Marvell, CNBC, Trust, Club, Nvidia, Microsoft, Goldman's
Companies encouraged investors to focus on artificial intelligence on Q2 earnings calls. These 72 companies outside of the technology sector touted AI in Q2, according to Goldman Sachs. Though some market commentators think that AI hype has gone too far, Goldman Sachs agrees with its peers that the enthusiasm is well-founded. That's reflected by a surge of mentions of AI by firms of all types on Q2 earnings calls, Goldman Sachs researchers recently noted. 72 under-the-radar AI winnersAfter poring over earnings call transcripts, Goldman Sachs researchers found that executives disproportionately discussed three topics: AI, economic growth, and sales growth drivers.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, that's, Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs, they're Organizations: Companies, Management
Here are 18 stocks with double-digit upside right now, according to Goldman Sachs. Investors taking a top-down look at markets to find opportunities should study individual stocks instead, according to Goldman Sachs. Fund managers usually fare best when stock dispersion is high. The richest 20% of stocks across market sectors trades at a 30x earnings multiple, which is nearly triple that of the bottom quintile, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs highlighted 25 stocks set to separate themselves the most from their index — either to the upside or downside.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs isn't, Morgan Stanley, Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's, Goldman, Wilson, Kosting, it's Organizations: Investors, Fund
Microeconomic factors seem to be dominating the market action in 2023, and Goldman Sachs is offering up some opportunities to capture the greatest alpha in this environment. Options pricing also reflects expectations for elevated return dispersion over the near term, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin said in a Friday note. Consensus expectations call for the median stock on the list to rise 24%, versus 11% expected for the median S & P 500 stock. "These stocks ultimately present alpha generating opportunities for investors to apply directional views on fundamental outlooks or near-term catalysts," Kostin wrote. Goldman also included solar stock Enphase Energy , down more than 49% year to date.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Goldman, Kostin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Wall, Moderna, Technologies, Energy, Netflix, Goldman
However, individual stocks are struggling to perform following a quarterly beat, an "unusual" move, according to Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha. "The market rally so far is running ahead of that in a typical earnings season at this stage," Chadha wrote Friday. Meanwhile, the S & P 500 is higher by roughly 1.6% at the midway point of earnings season, which is above the 1.1% advance typically made through this time, the strategist said. Stocks are usually higher by 2% on average by the end of the full earnings season. He said, "On the day after releasing results, stocks beating consensus expectations underperformed by a greater amount than almost any time during the past 18 years."
Persons: Chadha, Stocks, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Michael Bloom Organizations: Deutsche, Companies
Goldman Sachs chose 41 stocks expected to see higher EPS growth than the S&P 500 by year-end 2024. Now, Goldman Sachs is calling for the S&P 500 to land around 4,500 by the end of the year. As for the economy, back in January, Goldman Sachs predicted there was a 35% chance of recession this year. Twenty-nine of them are expected to enjoy stronger EPS growth than the S&P 500 this year, and all of them are forecast to outpace the index's EPS growth in 2024. Along with each stock is its ticker, 2023 estimated EPS growth, and 2024 estimated EPS growth.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Kostin, Jan Hatzius, Kostin Organizations: Intel Locations: Goldman Sachs
But most of Wall Street still sees a recession hitting the US economy by the end of the year. With markets up but uncertainty rising, we asked 6 pros where they'd invest $10,000 right now. After the S&P 500 dropped nearly 20% last year, it's no wonder Wall Street wasn't particularly bullish heading into 2023. What nobody could have anticipated was the hype created by artificial intelligence, and the stock market boom that accompanied it. That's why Insider asked six financial gurus, ranging from portfolio managers to economists, where they would invest $10,000 right now.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Mark Reeth
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldman's David Kostin: The market is fairly valued, which makes it challenging to pick stocks nowDavid Kostin, Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the issues Kostin is currently considering, Kostin's price targets for the equity indices, and more.
Persons: David Kostin, Goldman Sachs
The biggest stocks in the market will soon get taken down a peg or two, at least on paper. The seven largest stocks in the Nasdaq-100 will be diluted down to 44% of the index from the current 56%. The changes mean the Invesco QQQ Trust and other funds that closely follow the index will need to sell some of the biggest stocks in the market this week. "Nasdaq slashed the NDX weight of AAPL from 20% to 12%, but this change had no clear negative effect on the stock's performance. The rebalance comes as the increased concentration of large-cap tech stocks has raised concerns the current market rally is unsustainable.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Lori Calvasina, Bram Kaplan, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Nasdaq, Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, Broadcom, RBC Capital Markets, JPMorgan
Goldman Sachs is bullish about stocks in the second half of 2023. Here are 17 stocks with dramatically higher 2024 earnings estimates from Goldman than the consensus. Instead of simply watching to see whether corporate profits continue to decline this quarter, Goldman Sachs is already keeping a pulse on next year's earnings growth. Unlike most of its peers, Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 to build on its gain, though its year-end price target of 4,500 suggests near-term upside will be hard to come by. David Kostin, the chief US equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note that just 33% of large-cap mutual fund managers beat their benchmark in the first half.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Kostin Organizations: Goldman, Research, Credit Suisse
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