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☆ 8 investments to make now as the Federal Reserve risks a recession by going 'way overboard' in raising interest rates, according to 7 top economists and strategists
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Since March, Rosenberg has warned that by trying to crush inflation, the Fed would inadvertently kill the economy as well. "I think that the odds now are that it's going to be more severe than people think because the Fed has gone way overboard," Rosenberg said of a recession. The contrarian view: With inflation falling, a recession is no guaranteeHowever, not every strategist thinks that a recession is a sure thing. But what I think we can see is the Federal Reserve is overdoing it and eventually, the Fed will have to cut rates." Fittingly, Parker's bets are contingent on his view that the US economy won't suffer from a severe recession.

☆ Dow falls more than 300 points after Fed raises rates, sees 'ongoing' hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDow falls more than 300 points after Fed raises rates, sees 'ongoing' hikesDavid Kelly of JPMorgan asset management, Jim Caron of Morgan Stanley Investment Management, and Cameron Dawson of NewEdge Wealth join 'The Exchange' to discuss the latest Fed rate decision.

☆ Recession 2023: Jerome Powell's Legacy Will Dictate Inflation, Stock Market, Economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +15 min

This obsession with controlling inflation — and potentially causing serious pain for average Americans — is driven by one major factor: legacy. High inflation eats away at consumers' purchasing power, and persistent inflation seeps into expectations for price and wage adjustments, which further fuel inflation. What's more, the full impact of the Fed's rate hikes have yet to hit. Legacy actsThere are signs that certain Fed officials are ready to dial back on the inflation fight. And navigating such a tricky economy — without throwing hundreds of thousands of Americans out of work — could cement Powell's legacy.

☆ It's great timing for the US's first immigration boost in years — but experts say Biden needs to reverse more Trump-era policies for the economy to feel the maximum effect
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-28 | by ( Jason Lalljee | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

While net international migration in 2022 wasn't as high as in 2016 — the high point for immigration between 2010 to 2022 — it's still the highest since 2017. Additionally, the authors note that 2022 is the "first time net international migration increased since 2016." The US would have had about two million more immigrants if not for those policies, Insider estimated based on the average growth rate from 2011 to 2016 for net international migration. According to Peri, "the number of immigrants who can come in legally is constrained" by laws and procedures that haven't really changed. Since entering office, President Joe Biden has reversed a number of Trump's restrictive immigration policies, although a number of them are still in place.

CNN —The US could be approaching a 2011-style debt ceiling market meltdown, but worried investors shouldn’t abandon ship, Wall Street analysts say. That means that if Congress doesn’t raise the debt ceiling by then, the US could default on its debt. But lawmakers remain in a deadlock about whether to lift their self-imposed borrowing limit: Democrats want Congress to pass a debt ceiling increase without conditions but Republican leadership says that any debt limit increase should be accompanied by spending cuts. Wall Street’s response: A debt ceiling meltdown creates serious risk for investors. Even if the debt ceiling debates are resolved, it’s not a bad idea to have some money invested abroad just in case of upheaval.

☆ Analysis: Debt ceiling: White House bets Republicans will blink under pressure
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-20 | by ( Trevor Hunnicutt | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

House Republicans want cuts to government programsbefore they will approve a higher ceiling; a similar demand sparked a 2011 credit rating downgrade and chaos in financial markets. But we similarly should not blindly increase the debt ceiling," Representative Chip Roy, a leading conservative, told Reuters. 2024 CAMPAIGN FOCUS ON EXTREMISMThe game of chicken comes as the White House prepares Biden's expected re-election campaign. Democrats are planning to deploy that theme in the 2024 election even if an agreement is reached quickly on the debt ceiling. A failure to raise the debt ceiling could have the opposite effect.

☆ Premarket stocks: How investors are preparing for a debt ceiling standoff
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Now, aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve and large spending packages have helped bring that ceiling into play once again. But Washington is at an impasse over whether or not to raise the debt limit: The White House expects Congress to pass a debt ceiling increase without conditions while Republicans say that any increase should be accompanied by spending cuts. Esther George says goodbye to the FedMost Americans dream of retiring by 65, but at the Federal Reserve it’s required. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City president Esther George turned 65 this weekend, triggering her mandated retirement. “Today, the U.S. is again experiencing high inflation and the Federal Reserve is aggressively tightening monetary policy.

☆ Markets: Bad news for the economy is now bad news on Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Paul R. La Monica | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —The market is bracing for a perfect storm of bad news. Kelly added that “a failure to increase the debt ceiling is the most immediate fiscal threat to the economy and markets in 2023” and that a deal is needed sooner rather than later in order to reassure the markets. There’s a saying on Wall Street that bad news for the economy is actually good news for the stock market and vice versa. Bad news actually might be bad news. “What just some weeks ago would have seen markets cheering the weaker data…is now being judged more harshly with bad news no longer enjoying a warm welcome,” she added.

☆ Explainer: A looming U.S. debt ceiling fight is starting to worry investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Here is a Q&A about the implications for markets:WHAT IS THE DEBT CEILING? The debt ceiling is the maximum amount the U.S. government can borrow to meet its financial obligations. Outstanding government debt, nominal gross domestic product and federal limit to borrowWHEN WILL THE UNITED STATES HIT THE DEBT CEILING? Goldman Sachs estimated the debt ceiling would be reached between August and October. Declining as debt ceiling loomsDO BOND PRICES REFLECT U.S.

☆ As crypto hackers and thieves make off with billions, there's another kind of fraud lurking in the industry.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

I'm sorry to say when you dig deeper into the practices of opaque crypto exchanges, there's little to restore that faith. Timothy Cradle, director of regulatory affairs at Blockchain Intelligence, told Insider that wash trading is market manipulation. NBER researchers estimated that wash trading comprises nearly half of all transactions on Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange by volume. Similarly, KuCoin, another top-five crypto exchange, was estimated to have 52.9% of its transactions consist of wash trading (which the company denied). Are you surprised that the researchers found wash trading to be so rampant a practice?

☆ The Fed has won its war against inflation and needs to end its interest-rate increases, says JPMorgan Asset Management's investment chief
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed can claim victory in its war against inflation and needs to stop hiking interest rates, according to JPMorgan's David Kelly. This is a war that they've won, and they're in danger of tipping the economy into recession," he said. Kelly expects three consecutive rate increases of 25 basis points each by May and sees borrowing costs staying there till year-end. This is a war that they've won, and they're in danger of tipping the economy into recession. I think they're making the fiscal problem worse, so I wish they would be done," Kelly said.

☆ There's no reason for the Fed to incite recession to curb inflation, says JPMorgan's David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere's no reason for the Fed to incite recession to curb inflation, says JPMorgan's David KellyPaul McCulley, former PIMCO chief economist, and David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss inflation and whether the Fed's going to go too far with interest hikes, how investors should position for the long-run and more.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Georgetown's Paul McCulley and JPMorgan's David Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Georgetown's Paul McCulley and JPMorgan's David KellyPaul McCulley, former PIMCO chief economist, and David Kelly, JPMorgan Asset Management chief global strategist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss whether the Fed's likely to go too far with interest rate hikes, how investors should position for the long-run and more.

☆ Morningstar shares 2 trades they say will deliver 7% yearly returns over the next decade, even after accounting for inflation — and breaks down why the 60/40 portfolio strategy is starting to look att
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

But the sell-offs have put both asset classes in a better position to succeed for the long-term, Straehl said in a recent note. While communication services stocks have largely sold off this year, the sector is now the most attractive in the market, Straehl said. The Vanguard Communication Services ETF (VOX) provides exposure to the communications services sector. The second trade Straehl said will deliver 7% real returns over the next 10 years is emerging market stocks. The stocks are in a more favorable place valuation-wise than developed market stocks, Straehl said.

☆ There is a period of volatility ahead of us, but it could be short-lived, says Edward Jones' Mahajan
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere is a period of volatility ahead of us, but it could be short-lived, says Edward Jones' MahajanDavid Kelly, Mona Mahajan and John Bellows join 'Power Lunch' to discuss market reaction to the latest Fed policy update, the dissonance between dot plot findings and the market and the transition from defensive portfolios to recovery portfolios.

☆ The US is heading for a 'swamp' recession which could mire the economy in a disappointing and slow recovery
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-10 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

Kelly told Insider the recovery may be considered "tepid" given it will be a "mild improvement in things." David Kelly, chief global strategist for JPMorgan Asset Management, called it a "'swamp' recession" in a note, suggesting the "economy would likely struggle to get out of" what is potentially a mild recession. It's like standing on the edge of a swamp," Kelly told Insider. "The problem this time around is two-fold," Kelly told Insider. In short, Kelly told Insider that a modest recovery from a shallow recession could be viewed as "tepid" as it will be a "mild improvement in things."

☆ US stocks finish mixed amid fears of more Fed hawkishness after hot jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Dow reversed higher as the Fed is still largely expected to slow its pace of rate hikes. But the hot jobs data could push the Fed to tack on more rate hikes in early 2023, some analysts say. JPMorgan Asset Management chief strategist David Kelly said the jobs report was likely distorted, and there's still plenty of room for the Fed to taper rate hikes and pause in 2023. Principal Asset Management chief strategist Seema Shah said the jobs report could push the Fed to raise rates above 5%. "This report doesn't mean the risks of the Fed raising rates to 6% are back on the table.

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with JPM's David Kelly and Edward Jones' Mona Mahajan
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with JPM's David Kelly and Edward Jones' Mona MahajanDavid Kelly, JP Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist, and Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones senior investment strategist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if Friday's jobs data alters Kelly's soft landing picture, what next year holds for equity markets and more.

☆ Jobs market still moderating and Fed will have an excuse to taper rate hikes, says JPM's Kelly
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJobs market still moderating and Fed will have an excuse to taper rate hikes, says JPM's KellyDavid Kelly, JP Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist, and Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones senior investment strategist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if Friday's jobs data alters Kelly's soft landing picture, what next year holds for equity markets and more.

☆ The Fed has done long-term damage to the appeal of real estate as a financial asset, says the strategy chief at JPMorgan's asset management arm. He explains how this could also tip the economy closer
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The housing market has cooled off in a hurry as mortgage rates hit new highs. The housing market has gone from white-hot to cooling fast, and it's not coming back any time soon. "The first genuine relief on mortgage rates may have to wait for the end of 2023 when the Fed may begin to take back some of its rate hikes," he said. Adding to the complications, the spread between Treasury bond rates and mortgage rates has increased, which creates another tiny barrier to affordability. That means even when sales have slowed further, it's not necessarily going to be easy to find bargains in the housing market.

☆ It's looking more likely that any recession next year will be shallow and manageable
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

That's a slowdown from the year-over-year increase of 8.2% in September, and below the 8.0% increase economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected to see. And core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, saw a year-over-year increase of 6.3% in October, below September's year-over-year increase of 6.6%. This inflation data comes amid concerns of a looming recession, and debates on how bad of an economic downturn it will truly be. Any recession that comes will be mildAs Insider previously reported, a 2023 recession will look unlike any recession Americans have recently experienced, and the latest inflation data and strong jobs report bolster that sentiment. And looking forward, declining inflation levels are likely to shape the Fed's December decision on hiking interest rates.

☆ What to know as October inflation data looms - and the Federal Reserve's next move.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Year-over-year inflation for October is expected to have eased slightly to 7.9%, according to Bloomberg's median estimate, down from 8.2% September. But here's a tidbit I did not find reassuring: The annual inflation rate came in above forecasts in six of the last seven months. While it'd be a good sign if CPI comes in lower than September, that doesn't mean the economy is in the clear — far from it, actually. "If Core inflation comes in greater than 0.5%, the Fed will raise rates more and we would be reevaluating the probability of a recession, and probably raising it higher." The chief global strategist for JPMorgan's investing arm explained why the Fed will cause an unnecessary recession, even as inflation is fading away.

☆ Here's how to invest to take advantage of the best outlook for long-term investors since 2010, according to JPMorgan Asset Management
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

The forward outlook for investors is the best since 2010, according to JPMorgan Asset Management. This year is on pace to be the worst for stocks since 2008, but the long-term investing outlook is as promising as it's been since 2010, according to JPMorgan Asset Management (JPMAM). Both developments give long-term investors an attractive entry point. That's far lower than the 2.9% growth that the world saw from 2010 to 2020, according to JPMAM's 2021 report. How to invest for the long termInvestors should build long-term portfolios around three asset classes, according to JPMAM: stocks, bonds, and alternative assets.

☆ Why the Fed will likely cause an unnecessary recession even though rampant inflation is fading away, according to the chief global strategist for JPMorgan's investing arm
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

He sees clear signs inflation is fading and says the Fed could achieve a "soft landing." But Kelly tells Insider the Fed seems intent on more interest rate hikes instead. While inflation is the highest it's been in 40 years, Kelly says the Fed should be focused on a shorter timeframe. Last week, according to Kelly, the Fed acknowledged that its recent interest rate hikes were going to filter into the economy over time. That means that they'll remain, recession or no recession, making for a "slow growth, low inflation environment" that is supportive for stocks.

The latest data on jobs from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows a still-robust labor market in the US. With inflation continuing to soar in the US, the Federal Reserve has moved aggressively to combat high prices by hiking interest rates. But on Friday, new data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the labor market continues to be strong. As Insider previously reported,the Fed's high interest rates would cause companies to slow their hiring plans, and therefore lead to smaller pay gains for workers. Looking ahead, all eyes are on the Fed's December meeting when it will announce its next round of interest rate hikes.

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