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"The market as a whole is telling you is there are a lot of different ways to interpret all the things people are saying." Interest rate hikes by central banks around the world have stressed the banking sector, which became manifest with the recent failures of SVB Financial Group (SIVB.O) and Signature Bank (SBNY.O). Comments from the Bank of England that inflation will probably quickly fade also helped fuel hopes of light at the end of the central bank tightening tunnel. "Every central bank that was on path to raise rates raised them," GLOBALT's Martin added. Shares of First Republic Bank (FRC.N) dropped in volatile trading in the wake of Yellen's testimony.
Wall Street rallies on hopes of Fed policy pause
  + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
"Today the market is bouncing back on what was a dovish Fed hike yesterday," said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky. "Powell did a good job sticking to the party line on inflation and continued to jawbone hawkish even though the hike leaned dovish." Comments from the Bank of England that inflation will probably quickly fade also helped fuel hopes of light at the end of the central bank tightening tunnel. Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, communication services (.SPLRCL) and tech (.SPLRCT) led the percentage gainers. The S&P 500 posted four new 52-week highs and 14 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 45 new highs and 197 new lows.
The three major U.S. stock indexes, which were mostly directionless prior to the Fed announcement, jumped higher then deflated as investors digested the accompanying statement and Chair Jerome Powell's subsequent Q&A session. Worries persist that the Fed's aggressive battle against inflation could tip the economy into recession, and recent turmoil in the banking sector, sparked by failures of SVB Financial Group (SIVB.O) and Signature Bank (SBNY.O), have exacerbated those fears. All 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 ended the session deep in negative territory, with real estate (.SPLRCR) suffering the steepest percentage drop, its largest one-day plunge since Sept. 13. The S&P 500 posted six new 52-week highs and 13 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 179 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.84 billion shares, compared with the 12.70 billion average over the last 20 trading days.
Still, despite its recent resurgence, the S&P Banks index has lost more than 18% of its value just this month. "The Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points and the market won't care," Pursche added. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 20, 2023. The S&P 500 posted 5 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 48 new highs and 114 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 11.75 billion shares, compared with the 12.63 billion average over the last 20 trading days.
Global market skittishness over whether contagion is afoot within the banking sector appears to be waning. In fact, if European and U.S. markets on Monday are a prologue to Asian markets on Tuesday, investors can look forward to a rebound. The S&P Banking index (.SPXBK) ended the session up 0.6%, but even with Monday's advance, the index has plunged 21.3% this month. Reuters GraphicsEuropean Central Bank president Christine Lagarde insisted on Monday that the ECB has the tools to contend with financial market turbulence while fighting inflation, just days after announcing a hawkish a 50 basis point policy rate hike. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Wall Street ends sharply lower on bank contagion fears
  + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
For the week, while the benchmark S&P 500 ended higher than last Friday's close, the Nasdaq and the Dow posted weekly declines. "(The sell-off) is a bit of an overreaction," said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors in New York. Those concerns have spread to Europe, as Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) shares stumbled over liquidity worries, prompting policymakers to scramble to reassure markets. First Republic Bank (FRC.N) plunged after the bank announced it was suspending its dividend, reversing Thursday's surge that was sparked by an unprecedented $30 billion rescue package from large financial institutions. First Republic's peers, PacWest Bancorp (PACW.O) and Western Alliance (WAL.N), both ended the session sharply lower.
Larry Culp, GE’s chairman and CEO, still could receive performance-linked shares valued at $146 million. General Electric Co. said it canceled stock awards for Chief Executive Officer Larry Culp originally valued at $20 million, saying the company had failed to reach minimum performance thresholds necessary for the executive to take full title to the shares. The move, made by the board last month, wiped out all but about $3.2 million of the $8.2 million in total compensation the company reported for Mr. Culp for 2022, as well as a tranche of shares originally valued at $15 million when it was awarded in 2020. The company also canceled equity awards for the same years for other top executives.
Financial stocks clawed back some losses, with the S&P 500 Banks index (.SPXBK) coming back from its steepest one-day sell-off since June 2020. Bank contagion fears were allayed on Tuesday as reassurances by U.S. President Joe Biden and other global policymakers vowed the crisis would be contained. Even so, inflation has a considerable way to go before approaching the central bank's average annual 2% target. [1/4] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 14, 2023. The S&P 500 banking index (.SPXBK) reclaimed territory lost to Monday's plunge, its biggest one-day drop since June 2020.
Some also worry that the Fed's messaging is becoming erratic as it reacts to successively weak then strong economic data. BlackRock, the world's biggest asset manager, was among the slew of big Wall Street names raising their views for how high policy rates could go, with a forecast of 6%. Reuters GraphicsFor some investors, a return to 50 and 75 basis point rate increases may be a bridge too far. "Investors fear the Fed is going to overdo it," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital. A spate of hotter than expected data would soon show that the economy was stronger than the Fed had expected.
NEW YORK, March 10 (Reuters) - A critical inflation report next week will test a U.S. stock market already consumed by worries over Federal Reserve hawkishness and potential fallout from the largest bank failure since the financial crisis. A hotter-than-expected consumer price report on Tuesday, however, could reignite fears of jumbo-sized Fed rate hikes like those that rocked markets last year. After a big rebound in January, the benchmark index is now clinging to a 0.6% gain for 2023. The consumer price report is followed the next day by more inflation data, on producer prices. Besides signs of falling inflation, reassurance for investors could come if it became clearer that SVB’s issues were unlikely to spread.
CINCINNATI, Ohio, March 9 (Reuters) - General Electric Co (GE.N) on Thursday reiterated its earnings outlook for this year as booming demand at its aerospace business is expected to make up for challenges at the company's renewable energy business. But GE Vernova, the company's portfolio of energy businesses, which includes renewables, is expected to report an operating loss of between $200 million and $600 million in 2023, GE said. GE's renewable energy business has failed to turn a profit in the past eight quarters due to a combination of weak demand, higher raw materials and labor costs and supply-chain pressures. This performance has cast a shadow over the company's plan to spin off GE Vernova into a separate company next year. The Boston-based industrial conglomerate said it is "transforming" its renewable energy business and expects profitable growth in the long-run.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with General Electric CEO Larry Culp on Investor DayLarry Culp, General Electric CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss Culp's sense of where the company is right now, the current issues with supply chains and the biggest issue for the company.
A jump in air travel demand has driven up sales at its aerospace division, which makes and services engines for Boeing Co (BA.N) and Airbus SE (AIR.PA) jets. GE also reiterated its profit outlook for 2023 as booming demand in its aerospace business is expected to make up for the challenges in its renewable energy business. It expects adjusted earnings of $1.60 to $2.00 per share in 2023, with revenue growth percentage in high single digits. GE estimated that the aerospace business would generate double-digit revenue growth this year, translating into an operating profit of $5.3 billion-$5.7 billion. However, supply and labor shortages have hurt jet engine output, with CEO Culp saying it was a daily battle to meet jet engine demand.
But renewable energy remains a problem. Analysts have raised questions about whether GE may be forced to alter a plan to spin off GE Vernova into a separate company next year, including a possible delay or changing which assets are included. "I want to kind of understand is there any chance at all that Vernova will not include GE wind," William Blair analyst Nicholas Heymann said. But overall, GE is expected to reiterate its 2023 adjusted earnings outlook of $1.60 to $2.00 per share on Thursday. The aerospace business, which supplies engines to Airbus (AIR.PA) and Boeing (BA.N), is grappling with shortages of labor, parts and raw materials.
"It's a pretty classic risk-off day," said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) closed 0.81% lower, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) rose 0.25%. Benchmark Treasury yields dipped after Powell's remarks, and the inversion between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, a harbinger of potential recession, steepened. Benchmark 10-year notes last rose 4/32 in price to yield 3.9696%, from 3.983% late on Monday. The 30-year bond last rose 18/32 in price to yield 3.8794%, from 3.912% late on Monday.
REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File PhotoNEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks plunged, the greenback surged and Treasury yields dipped on Tuesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell concluded the first day of his semi-annual, two-day monetary policy testimonial before Congress. In a broadly risk-off session, the dollar gained strength and inversion between short- and long-dated Treasury yields touched their widest since 1981 as the testimony reaffirmed the Fed's determination to bring inflation down to its 2% target rate. European shares extended their losses after Powell's prepared remarks fueled rate hike worries. Benchmark Treasury yields dipped after Powell's remarks, and the inversion between 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, a harbinger of potential recession, hit its steepest differential in over four decades. Benchmark 10-year notes last rose 2/32 in price to yield 3.9754%, from 3.983% late on Monday.
REUTERS/Toby MelvilleNEW YORK, March 7 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks retreated and benchmark Treasury yields wavered on Tuesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell commenced his semi-annual, two-day monetary policy testimony before Congress. All three major U.S. stock indexes were languid in early trading before Powell's prepared remarks were released as he sat down to testify before the Senate Banking Committee. "(Powell is) stating the obvious - inflation is stubbornly high," said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York. Emerging market stocks lost 0.65%. Benchmark Treasury yields initially headed higher after Powell's remarks were released but eased as his testimony began in earnest.
[1/4] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., February 27, 2023. All three major U.S. stock indexes were modestly higher, although well off session highs, Treasury yields reversed an earlier dip and the dollar pared its losses in afternoon trading. Emerging market stocks rose 0.57%. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields were last nominally higher on the day, bouncing back from initial decline. The dollar lost ground against a basket of world currencies ahead of Powell's testimony and the jobs data.
[1/4] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, March 3, 2023. All three major U.S. stock indexes gained ground on Monday, appearing to extend last week's rally, with lower Treasury yields boosting interest rate-sensitive megacap stocks. European shares reversed earlier gains and were last essentially unchanged after modest China growth estimates suggested a possible dampening of demand for European goods. Emerging market stocks rose 0.64%. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields continued to ease as dampening demand supported hopes that the Fed is approaching the end of its rate-hike phase.
The week also saw the benchmark S&P 500 break through its 50- and 200-day moving averages, two closely watched technical levels. [1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 3, 2023. Fourth-quarter earnings season is on the final stretch, with all but seven of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported. This would imply the S&P 500 entered a three-quarter earnings recession in the closing months of 2022, per Refinitiv. The S&P 500 posted 23 new 52-week highs and 2 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 79 new highs and 57 new lows.
[1/2] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., March 3, 2023. The week also saw the benchmark S&P 500 break through its 50- and 200-day moving averages, two closely watched technical levels. Fourth-quarter earnings season is on the final stretch, with all but seven of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported. This would imply the S&P 500 entered a three-quarter earnings recession in the closing months of 2022, per Refinitiv. The S&P 500 posted 21 new 52-week highs and two new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 73 new highs and 49 new lows.
The S&P 500 was expected to end 2023 at 4,200 points, which would amount to a 9.4% increase for the calendar year, according to the median forecast of 42 strategists polled by Reuters. After falling 19.4% in 2022, the S&P 500 index is up 4.1% for the year so far. S&P valuations have fallen but still above 20-year averageAs of Feb. 17, Wall Street's expectation for S&P earnings growth for 2023 has fallen to 1.6% from an expected 4.4% on Jan. 1, according to Refinitiv. But while Sandven's year-end S&P 500 target doesn't depend on interest rate cuts he said "it does depend on moderating inflation and improved earnings visibility". Strategists had expected the Dow to end 2023 at 36,500, according to a November poll.
S&P 500 index seen climbing 5% by end of 2023
  + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The S&P 500 was expected to end 2023 at 4,200 points, which would amount to a 9.4% increase for the calendar year, according to the median forecast of 42 strategists polled by Reuters. After falling 19.4% in 2022, the S&P 500 index is up 4.1% for the year so far. S&P valuations have fallen but still above 20-year averageAs of Feb. 17, Wall Street's expectation for S&P earnings growth for 2023 has fallen to 1.6% from an expected 4.4% on Jan. 1, according to Refinitiv. But while Sandven's year-end S&P 500 target doesn't depend on interest rate cuts he said "it does depend on moderating inflation and improved earnings visibility". Strategists had expected the Dow to end 2023 at 36,500, according to a November poll.
Robinhood’s stock awards tell a cautionary fable
  + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
The now-abandoned payouts to Tenev and Bhatt were a slab of “market-based restricted stock units” distributed ahead of Robinhood’s initial public offering in July 2021. The system works in reverse, too, however: When executives give back stock awards, the company gains nothing in cash terms. U.S. accounting rules treat stock awards geared to a company’s stock price as a gift that cannot be returned. In short, by handing back their awards, Robinhood’s founders have neither robbed from themselves, nor given to anyone else. Even without this unhappy effect on earnings, shareholders should be wary of the kinds of awards Robinhood doled out at its public company debut.
[1/2] A BMW car logo is displayed during a media tour at the plant of German automaker BMW in San Luis Potosi, Mexico, February 3, 2023. REUTERS/Toya Sarno Jordan/File PhotoNEW YORK, Feb 21 (Reuters) - Rio Tinto on Tuesday said it would supply BMW with aluminum it produces in Canada using hydroelectric power, lowering the auto manufacturer's carbon footprint with respect to its procurement of the automotive metal. The UK-based mining company and the German automaker announced in separate statements that they had signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) for Rio Tinto's hydro-powered operations in Canada to provide a BMW production plant in Spartanburg, South Carolina, with an unspecified amount of aluminum starting in 2024 -- a move that "could generate a reduction of up to 70 percent in CO2 emissions compared to the BMW Group's benchmark for aluminum," according to Rio Tinto. "The agreement to supply low-carbon aluminium" is also aimed at "ramping up our use of aluminium with no direct CO2 emissions from the smelting process," wrote Joachim Post, member of the Board of Management of BMW AG, which is responsible for its purchasing and supplier network. Reporting by Stephen Culp; Additional reporting by Ernest Scheyder; Editing by Sandra MalerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
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