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☆ Morning Bid: Banks lob earnings into giddy markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But there's likely to be a scattering of the herd in terms of performance during that three months. For universal banks such as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo that serve retail consumers and firms, earnings per share are expected to have jumped more than 40% over the previous year. Overall, the U.S. earnings season is expected to show S&P500 profits down 6.4% from the same period a year earlier - with revenue down a more modest 0.8%, according to Refinitiv research. Stock markets around the world and S&P500 futures held most of their outsize weekly gains, however, and were mostly flat into the open. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Wells, behemoths Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Christopher Waller, that's, Toby Chopra Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank, Export, Stock, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, University of Michigan, European Union, Brussels Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, China, Brussels

☆ Thai consumer confidence at 40-mth high in June but politics a worry
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BANGKOK, July 13 (Reuters) - Thai consumer confidence rose for a 13th straight month in June, reaching its highest in nearly 3-1/2 years, bolstered by a recovery in tourism despite concerns over political uncertainty, a survey showed on Thursday. The consumer index of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce rose to 56.7 in June from 55.7 in May. Thailand has long been a popular destination for foreign tourists, receiving nearly 40 million visitors in pre-pandemic 2019. "Consumer confidence has improved steadily because of the tourism sector, but consumers are very worried about political impacts," Thanavath Phonvichai, president of the university, told a briefing on the consumer survey that determines the index. "Politics will have an impact on the economy if there is a violent protest and a delay in forming a government," he said.

Persons: Phonvichai, Limjaroenrat, Pita, Orathai Sriring, Tom Hogue Organizations: University of, Thai Chamber of Commerce, Thomson Locations: BANGKOK, Thailand, Bangkok

☆ Many Americans fear a recession as severe as 2008 could be coming. Here’s what experts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Lorie Konish | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

To that point, 68% are expecting a recession in the next six months, and 80% of those respondents expect it to be severe. Experts weigh in3 reasons it can be smarter to rent, even if you can buy Yet, predictions from various experts are not as dire. watch nowAt Raymond James, the current forecast calls for a "very, very mild" recession, according to chief economist Eugenio Aleman. Raymond James is predicting a 1.3% growth rate for 2023 and 0.6% for 2024 — which coincides with the firm's forecast for a "very, very mild recession," Aleman said. To cope with high inflation, Nationwide's survey found more than half of respondents are eating out less, with 54%.

Persons: Jamie Grill, We're, Kathy Bostjancic, it's, Raymond James, Eugenio Aleman, Aleman, Nonfarm, —, Gray, Tang Ming Tung, Bostjancic Organizations: Finance, Nationwide, U.S . Department of Labor, ADP, Employers, Challenger, Federal Reserve, Getty, Auto Locations: U.S, American

☆ Canadian firms see labor market pressure easing, near-term inflation slowing
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

By Steve SchererOTTAWA, June 30 (Reuters) - Canadian businesses see labor pressures easing and expect short-term inflation to edge down, the Bank of Canada said on Friday in a second quarter survey, but fewer firms expect an outright recession over the next year than three months ago. More businesses still expect wage growth over the next year, but the second-quarter number is a third of what it was a year ago. An increasing number of firms see both their input costs and the prices of what they sell declining over the next year. "Although labor shortages remain common in some sectors, pressures on the labor market are easing due to decreased competition for workers and increased labor supply," the report said. "Firms expect growth in their wages to moderate from high levels."

Persons: Steve Scherer OTTAWA, Steve Scherer, Ismail Shakil Organizations: Bank of Canada, BoC, Thomson

TOKYO, June 27 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar held firm against major currencies on Tuesday as tension simmered in Russia and traders looked ahead to U.S. data that may determine the timing of further interest rate hikes. The Russian rouble weakened 0.41% versus the dollar at 84.75 after hitting its weakest level since March 2022. Japan intervened to boost the yen last year when it weakened past the 145 per dollar level. U.S. data this week include new orders for durable goods, housing figures, and consumer surveys from The Conference Board and University of Michigan. If the U.S. economic data comes out on the strong side, then further pricing in for the two rate hikes will push up the dollar," Yamamoto said.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Shunichi Suzuki, Masafumi Yamamoto, Yamamoto, Christine Lagarde, Sterling, Rocky Swift, Christopher Cushing, Barbara Lewis Organizations: U.S, Japanese Finance, Conference Board, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve, Mizuho Securities, European Central Bank, ECB, Central Banking, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Russia, Russian, U.S, Sintra , Portugal, China, China's

☆ Dollar holds firm ahead of U.S. durable goods, housing data
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The U.S. dollar held its ground against major currencies on Tuesday as tension in Russia simmered and traders looked ahead to U.S. data that may determine the timing of interest rate hikes. U.S. data this week include new orders for durable goods, housing figures, and consumer surveys from The Conference Board and University of Michigan. "Two more rate hikes are not fully priced in the market. If the U.S. economic data comes out on the strong side, then further pricing in for the two rate hikes will push up the dollar," Yamamoto said. The Australian dollar fetched $0.66815, up 0.10%, while the New Zealand dollar slid 0.08% to $0.6159.

Persons: Vladimir Putin, Masafumi Yamamoto, Yamamoto Organizations: U.S, Conference Board, University of Michigan, Federal Reserve, Mizuho Securities, European Central Bank, Central Banking, Australian, New Zealand Locations: Russia, U.S, Sintra , Portugal

Can that real wage growth persist if the jobs market now loosens with a lag from the swingeing five percentage points of rate hikes in just 15 months? What's more, other surveys have yet to show inflation expectations falling so sharply or lifting confidence. The possibility of a disinflation spur to demand at this juncture may complicate that picture considerably. Importantly, the slower fall in inflation in both Britain and the euro zone means real wage growth remains negative - unlike the latest twist stateside. Bank of America chart on investor survey growth outlookReuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reutersby Mike Dolan, Twitter: @reutersMikeD.

Persons: it's, Goldman Sachs, Dom Wilson, Mike Dolan, Alexander Smith Organizations: University of, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Bank of, UBS Global Wealth Management, Fed, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Michigan, Europe, Britain

☆ Consumers feel better/worse about inflation, economy's direction
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Washington, DC CNN —Americans are feeling upbeat about inflation and the economy, according to the University of Michigan’s latest consumer survey released Friday. Consumers’ inflation expectations for the year ahead retreated for the second straight month, declining to 3.3% early this month from 4.2% in May. That’s good news for the Federal Reserve, which closely watches sentiment surveys to gauge the expectations consumers and businesses have for price hikes. “The sharp drop of short-term consumer inflation expectations points to another slowdown in the June CPI report, which will be out before the Fed’s next decision,” wrote Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, in an analyst note. However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in his news conference this week that inflation expectations remain in check.

Persons: ”, Bill Adams, Jerome Powell, That’s, Christopher Waller Organizations: DC CNN, University of Michigan’s, Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of New, National Federation of Independent Business, Federal Locations: Washington, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Norway

☆ Australian businesses, consumers at risk of sharp slowdown ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"There is a growing risk that the RBA's attempts to maintain an even keel 'run aground,'" said NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster. The survey, however, pointed to persistent price pressures, with the measure of labour costs and purchase costs accelerating, in a concern for the RBA. NAB on Tuesday raised its call on peak rates in the current cycle, adding two more quarter-point hikes to 4.6%. Markets are now pricing the risk of two more hikes, and see rates staying elevated for the remainder of the year. CONSUMERS UNDER THE PUMPData from Westpac and Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) also points to the strains consumers are feeling as high living costs and surging mortgage rates erode spending power.

Persons: Alan Oster, Bill Evans, Belinda Allen, Stella Qiu, Kim Coghill, Jamie Freed Organizations: NAB, RBA Westpac, SYDNEY, National Australia Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Westpac, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Melbourne Institute, CBA, Thomson

☆ Here are Friday's biggest analyst calls: Apple, Netflix, Target, Tesla, Corning, Adobe, Meta & more
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Wells Fargo upgrades Adobe to overweight from equal weight Wells said it's bullish on the company's AI opportunity. Morgan Stanley reiterates General Motors as overweight Morgan Stanley said GM and Tesla's charging agreement could be a game changer. Morgan Stanley reiterates Carvana as equal weight Morgan Stanley said it's getting a little more constructive on the stock after the company announced improved second-quarter guidance. " Loop reiterates Best Buy as buy Loop said Best Buy could be a long-term beneficiary of virtual reality after Apple announced its launch earlier this week. Morgan Stanley upgrades Corning to overweight from equal weight Morgan Stanley said in its upgrade of the glass company that it sees an attractive risk/reward.

Persons: Tesla, Wells, it's bullish, Morgan Stanley, KeyBanc, Key, Carvana, it's, Roth, Mgmt, Jefferies, Archer, EVEX, Ulta, Corning, Guggenheim Organizations: UBS, Motors, GM, Apple, Citi, Target, Walmart, Netflix, Apple Vision, Meta, Embraer, BMO, Microsoft, Nike Locations: WMT

☆ Restaurants expect strong sales this summer. Consumers aren't so sure
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Amelia Lucas | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Warmer weather usually boosts restaurant sales, but diners may hold back for the second straight summer as inflation weighs on consumers' minds — and wallets. In addition to higher restaurant bills, diners were also paying more at the gas pump and in grocery stores. Restaurant sales snapped back in August, which Black Box Intelligence attributed to higher consumer confidence levels as gas prices fell. Nearly half of operators surveyed by Datassential anticipate higher sales or improved traffic this summer season. Summer typically ushers in a wave of seasonal restaurant jobs to meet higher demand, particularly in the Northeast and tourist destinations.

☆ Here are 5 things stock market investors should watch for with volatility set to ramp up through year-end
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Fed on Wednesday issued its 10th straight interest rate increase to a near 20-year high of 5%-5.25%. The latest move comes as the US bond market flashes recession warnings as steeper borrowing costs put pressure on the economy. Comerica Wealth Management2. Comerica Wealth Management4. But Comerica Wealth said it sees the signal from corporate bonds as less ominous.

☆ The housing market is a total paradox now, and these recent mixed signals are adding to the confusion
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-01 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Housing indicators have sent mixed signals, muddying the picture on where the market is headed. Regional differences have also been playing a considerable role in the data. Meanwhile, Adams added that national averages can obscure stark regional differences, which have varied significantly, potentially causing diverging viewpoints. Here are some recent mixed signals:The US housing market is crashing and soaring at the same timeThe regional divide in the housing market is exemplified in this east-west split. "Existing-home sales, pending contracts and new-home construction pending contracts have turned the corner and climbed for the past three months."

March 6 (Reuters) - Companies labeling their meat, poultry, or eggs as a U.S. product must raise and slaughter the animals within the country under a new rule proposed by the Biden administration on Monday. The administration and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) pledged to review the "Product of USA" and "Made in the USA" label standards for meat early last year as part of a broader strategy to encourage competition in the economy as a whole and in the highly consolidated meat sector. "American consumers expect that when they buy a meat product at the grocery store, the claims they see on the label mean what they say," Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said in a statement. U.S. meat labeling has been contentious for years. The "Product of the USA" label will remain voluntary under USDA's proposed rule.

☆ Steep cleaning fees? Ridiculous chore lists? Who cares? Apparently, people still love Airbnb.
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Dan Latu | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Travelers critiqued some Airbnb hosts' steep cleaning fees and checkout-chore lists last year. The Wall Street Journal even published a front-page story with the headline, "Welcome to Your Airbnb, the Cleaning Fees Are $143 and You'll Still Have to Wash the Linens." Some hosts rushed in to please travelers, boldly highlighting $0 cleaning fees as a marketing tactic. This month, 42% of surveyed consumers held a favorable view of Airbnb, Morning Consult found, up from 38% of surveyed consumers in January 2022. In 2018, when Morning Consult began tracking Airbnb, only 23% of surveyed consumers held favorable opinions of the firm.

☆ Dogs Win the Super Bowl Ad Lineup, Surveys Show
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Patrick Coffee | ) www.wsj.com time to read: +5 min

The winner of USA Today’s annual Super Bowl Ad Meter was a commercial for dog-food delivery company Farmer’s Dog Inc. that tracked one chocolate Lab’s relationship with its owner from puppyhood to old age. The USA Today rankings had some overlap with other results. Research by Ace Metrix, a unit of TV ad measurement firm iSpot.tv Inc., crowned Jeep’s Super Bowl commercial as the most likable of the night. Jeep had the game’s most likable ad, according to Ace Metrix. “In past years, we’ve seen the majority of Super Bowl conversation generated in the weeks leading up to the Big Game,” a Mars spokeswoman said.

☆ 'It will prosper': Analysts say buy this global fintech stock with over 140% upside
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Shares of PensionBee , the U.K.-based digital pension provider, are expected to more than double in a year, according to a number of analysts. As a result, the Wall Street bank expects the stock to rise by 216% to £2.17 ($2.63) over the next 12 months. The positive outlook will be a reversal for the fast-growing company's stock, which fell by 60% in 2022 amid a broader sell-off in the U.K.'s small and mid-cap equity market. The consensus price target of five analysts covering the company gives the stock 146% potential upside. The German investment bank expects the stock to rise by more than 143% in the next 12 months to £1.70.

☆ Fed Governor Lael Brainard sees high rates ahead even with progress on inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said Thursday that interest rates need to remain high, even though there are signs inflation is starting to ease. Brainard pointed to a number of areas where she sees inflation starting to come down. Housing costs remain high, but Brainard and other Fed officials expect those to ease later in the year as apartment leases catch up with declines in commercial real estate. Instead, traders see the rate topping out about a quarter percentage point below that, and the Fed starting to reduce rates later this year. "Inflation is high, and it will take time and resolve to get it back down to 2%.

☆ Here are Wednesday's biggest analyst calls: Apple, Tesla, Netflix, Amazon, Salesforce, Levi's & more
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Michael Bloom | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Bank of America downgrades Coinbase to underperform from neutral Bank of America said it sees too many headwinds for the crypto exchange. Goldman Sachs downgrades Jefferies to neutral from buy Goldman said it sees a "backlog decline" for the investment bank company. Bank of America upgrades Toll Brothers and Pulte Group to buy from neutral Bank of America upgraded several homebuilders, citing compelling valuations. "We upgrade PulteGroup to Buy (from Neutral), Toll Brothers to Buy (from Neutral), and Lennar to Neutral (from Underperform). Bank of America upgrades Dow to neutral from underperform Bank of America said it's taking a more "offensive" approach to the stock.

☆ A 'returns tsunami' is about to deal a crippling blow to retailers
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-07 | by ( Avery Hartmans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

At the same time, retailers are bracing for a "returns tsunami" likely to hit in the next two weeks. "'More returns than ever' is the headline," said David Sobie, vice president of Happy Returns, which helps process and consolidate returns for retailers. A November Happy Returns consumer survey found that a third of shoppers planned to bracket heading into the holidays. Retailers have been dealing with high inventory since spring 2022George Frey/Getty ImagesBut even before this "tsunami" of returns hits, retailers were already dealing with too much inventory. But according to Baker, even with all those discounts, retailers' inventory troubles aren't over quite yet.

☆ Canada posts hefty job gains, raising chances of another rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Ismail Shakil | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The economy gained a net 104,000 jobs in December, far exceeding analysts' forecasts, while the jobless rate decreased to 5% from 5.1% in November, Statistics Canada data showed. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast a net gain of 8,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to edge up to 5.2%. Money markets now see a 75% chance of a 25-bp rate increase in January, up from roughly 60% before the data. Employment in the goods-producing sector rose by a net 22,200, mainly in construction. Employees in the private sector rose by 112,000 in December, the largest increase since February, while public sector and self-employed workers were both little changed, Statscan said.

☆ Stocks Edge Higher After Consumer Spending Data
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Matt Grossman | Caitlin Ostroff | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Wall Street traders left for Christmas in sedate spirits after a day of modest gains failed to arrest the S&P 500’s skid to a third straight week of losses colored by fears of inflation and recession. Indexes started Friday lower after Commerce Department figures showed that prices for services continued to climb faster than hoped last month. But stocks edged into positive territory after the midmorning release of the University of Michigan’s consumer survey painted households as optimistic about the economy.

☆ Tom Lee says there's a chance the Fed pauses hiking for all of 2023, sparking a massive stock rally
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-22 | by ( John Melloy | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Fundstrat sees that coming in at 4.4%, also below current Wall Street expectations. "Fed framework likely changes to 'predictable Fed' as inflation is now operating near their long-term goal of 2%," wrote Lee in the note this week. "This would be a massive dovish pivot, in our view, and could mean Fed pauses entirely in 2023 (maybe)." Lee's call is well outside expectations on Wall Street. Volatility easing to spark big rally The next piece of the Lee's theory is that as the Fed changes its policy, stock market volatility will collapse.

☆ Morning Bid: Questions after the storm
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. A day after the Bank of Japan's bombshell and things are looking a little steadier. Most Asian share markets and U.S. stock futures are up, and the Nikkei down only modestly. Analysts assume a formal shift will come after Japan's Spring wage talks and BOJ chief Kuroda's retirement in April. Analysts also suspect the BOJ shift meant the days of Japan desiring, or just accepting, a lower yen were over and the fallout in carry trades has been vicious.

☆ Survey shows a Costco membership fee hike would face little resistance — we think so, too
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Most American shoppers say they are willing to pay more for their retail club memberships — a sentiment that bodes well for Investing Club holding Costco (COST). As a result of the survey findings, Evercore favors Costco for a planned fee increase and the potential for a special dividend sometime next year. Costco's last membership price hike was in June 2017, when the wholesale retailer increased its standard membership fee from $55 to $60 and its Executive membership from $110 to $120. Historically, Costco has increased its membership fee every five years, an anniversary that passed a few months ago. Another potential catalyst for Costco stock is the company's likely decision to issue a special dividend, which Evercore thinks could happen in 2023.

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