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☆ Morning Bid: Don't fight central banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaJudging by the improved mood in global equity markets, investors are once again having a go at central banks. Will Powell be able to send a decisive message to markets about the future pace of interest rate increases? Fed, ECB and BoE 'terminal rates' riseThe European Central Bank has already raised rates to 2.5%, a 3 percentage point increase since July and essentially promised another half a percentage point increase on March 16. Strategists at BlackRock Investment Institute expect the trend to end as recent data pushes the European Central Bank to raise rates and keep them higher for longer. And Schroders' analysts are in the camp of those who expect interest rates to be kept on hold by the ECB from March.

☆ Americans in January expected mostly stable gains in future inflation, NY Fed says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-13 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Respondents to the regional Fed bank's latest Survey of Consumer Expectations said they expected inflation one year from now to hold steady at 5%. Respondents projected higher food and energy costs, while they saw steady future gains for rent and medical costs. The survey also found that respondents in January saw expected future household earnings growth at 3.3%, down from the expected 4.6% rise in the prior month. The New York Fed noted this was the biggest one-month drop ever for this measure. Meanwhile, expected future spending growth moderated to 5.7% last month, from the 5.9% forecast in December.

☆ U.S. consumer sentiment improves; inflation expectations rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Its gauge of consumer expectations dipped to 62.3 from a reading of 62.7 last month, likely reflecting lingering recession fears. Rising sentiment also suggested that the sharp declines in retail sales in November and December were a fluke. Data next week is expected to show retail sales rebounding 1.5% in January after tumbling 1.1% in December, according to a Reuters survey of economists. UMichThe University of Michigan survey's reading of one-year inflation expectations increased to 4.2% this month from 3.9% in January. The increase in near-term inflation expectations likely reflected a recent rise in gasoline prices.

One of the really interesting questions here – this will be fascinating – the core of linear TV is sports rights. When you look at the size and scope of the linear TV business, it's huge. Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty ImagesByron Allen, Entertainment Studios founder and CEO: I think linear TV will exist for a very, very long time. Simmons: I believe Apple, out of nowhere, will start making their own awesome televisions that have Apple TV embedded in them. We are witnessing early stages of this dynamic with deals like "NFL Sunday Ticket" on YouTube and the MLS deal with Apple TV.

☆ Fed Chair Powell: Consumer expectations are the bedrock of fighting future inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed Chair Powell: Consumer expectations are the bedrock of fighting future inflationFed Chair Jerome Powell answers questions from reporters after the central bank announced it was raising interest rates another 25 basis points.

☆ Investors bet the Fed doom loop they've been trapped in will end in the week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-28 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Next week is Groundhog Day, not to mention the 30 th anniversary of the theatrical release of "Groundhog Day." The ensuing market retreat culminated in the October low at more than a 25% decline from the S & P's record high. Inflation is decidedly in retreat, fourth-quarter GDP was slow-ish but solidly positive, Fed officials did nothing to push back against market expectations for a quarter-point bump in rates next week. But none of the interim S & P 500 rallies in that period made it as far above the 200-day moving average as the index currently is. Yet even with obligatory macro scares and market switchbacks along the way, it doesn't mean investors necessarily remain stuck in the same old doom loop.

☆ S&P 500 tries to break bear market downtrend, but earnings remain lackluster
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The S & P 500 hovers at the downtrend line everyone's watching after back-to-back 1%+ gains. The S & P 500 popping above the famous trend line would be a positive but in itself not a game changer. S & P 500 as a whole at 17x next 12 months' consensus — not cheap. Slicing away the five largest S & P 500 names or using the equal-weight S & P renders the P/E nearer to 15x. Worth recalling the S & P had a 25%+ drawdown last year when earnings were still hitting record highs in aggregate, so softness in Q4 not entirely a shock to the tape.

Some two-thirds of firms expect a recession over the next 12 months, with 90% of those expecting it to be mild. Several businesses said rising interest rates were slowing household demand and housing market activity. The survey showed that 84% of firms expect inflation to remain above 3% for the next two years, up from 77% in the third quarter. Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 6.8% in November as gasoline prices rose more slowly, still well above the central bank's 2% target, data showed last month. Almost 64% of consumers said they would reduce spending and save more to cope with inflation and rising interest rates.

☆ Why Apple may finally be embracing touchscreen laptops
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-12 | by ( Samantha Murphy Kelly | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported Apple engineers are developing a touchscreen for the MacBook Pro with an expected launch date of 2025, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter. While it’s unclear if the touchscreen laptop will see the light of day, introducing the product could accomplish two important things for Apple: adapting to shifting consumer expectations and supercharging sales for its Mac product line. Apple has previously kept the touchscreen away from its Mac lineup to prevent it from cannibalizing iPad sales. Now, however, Apple could use a Mac touchscreen to incentivize consumers to upgrade their computers and keep Mac sales momentum growing. When asked at a conference last fall if Apple will add a touchscreen to Macs, Federighi responded: “Who’s to say?”

Brent crude was up $1.29, or 1.6%, at $79.80 a barrel by 1:29 p.m. EST (1829 GMT). "The gradual reopening of the Chinese economy will provide an additional and immeasurable layer of price support," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. The rally followed a drop last week of more than 8% for both oil benchmarks, their biggest weekly declines at the start of a year since 2016. As part of a "new phase" in the fight against COVID-19, China opened its borders over the weekend for the first time in three years. "The NY Fed data should be supportive for oil prices, as it suggests that inflation is peaking," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures group.

☆ NY Fed survey finds reduced near-term inflation expectations in December
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Meanwhile, respondents’ expectations for inflation three years from now were unchanged at 3% while projections of inflation in five years’ time stood at 2.4%, up from 2.3% in November. The decline in near-term inflation expectations comes as the Fed has been aggressively pushing forward with rate rises aimed at lowering some of the highest price pressure readings in decades. Fed officials have been confident that will succeed in part because they have viewed longer-run inflation expectations data as relatively stable compared with their 2% target. Respondents to the survey had discordant expectations about their outlooks for income and spending. But expected spending tumbled, falling from November’s 6.9% expected rise to 5.9% in December.

☆ US consumers increased their borrowing by $28 billion in November
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Minneapolis CNN —US consumers’ credit-hungry approach to spending continued in November, with borrowing rising by nearly $28 billion, according to Federal Reserve data released Monday. Revolving credit, which includes mostly credit cards, grew by 16.9%. It’s the largest jump in revolving credit seen in three months and the fifth-largest monthly increase in Fed record-keeping that goes back nearly 55 years. “It’s really revolving credit, mostly credit card debt, that’s carrying the day right now,” Rossman said. That has filtered down to historically high, if not record, interest rates for car loans, credit cards and personal loans.

☆ Consumers see inflation—and spending—cooling off in the year ahead, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

People shop for goods at a Publix in Nashville, Tennessee, on December 22, 2022, ahead of winter storm Elliot. Consumers see the inflation burden easing while they expect to pull back considerably on their spending, according to a closely watched survey the New York Federal Reserve released Monday. Consumers expect gas prices to increase 4.1% and food prices to rise 7.6% over the next year, but both figures represent 0.7 percentage point declines from the previous month. Despite the efforts, survey respondents grew more optimistic about the labor market, with 40.8% expecting the unemployment rate to be higher a year from now, a 1.4 percentage point decline from November. Home prices also are expected to grow 1.3%, a 0.3 percentage point increase from November, according to the survey.

☆ Stock futures inch higher to start the week
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-08 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), January 5, 2023. Stock futures inched higher in overnight trading Sunday after the major averages notched their first big rally of the new trading year. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 37 points, or 0.11%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.16% and 0.25%, respectively. All the major averages finished Friday's session with weekly gains, with the Dow and S&P posting their best week since November. Nearer term, the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations along with consumer credit data are due out Monday.

☆ Important inflation data and big bank earnings could create volatility for markets in week ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Other speakers include Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic Monday. On Thursday, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin and St. Louis Fed President Bullard all speak at separate events. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Boston Fed President Susan Collins have appearances Friday. The most important inflation report in the week ahead is the consumer price index, released Thursday. Import prices 10:00 a.m. Consumer sentiment 10:00 a.m. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari 10:20 a.m. Philadelphia Fed's Harker 9:00 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins

Automakers from Sony Honda to Hyundai are introducing ways at the CES 2023 technology trade show this week to reshape the in-car entertainment experience, including offering video games during the rides. "This is a field which can be deployed very quickly," Dirk Hilgenberg, head of Volkswagen AG's (VOWG_p.DE) CARIAD software unit, told Reuters at CES. In December, Tesla issued a "holiday update" to its software to add access to 1,000 PC games through the Steam platform. Still, these are features that consumers are demanding, so VW is at CES seeking partnerships. "We will see the content ... which is provided by software enabled functionality will be a decisive factor for buying."

☆ How analytics and AI can help you build a better customer experience
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-23 | by ( Sponsor Post | Created Ibm With Insider Studios | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Organizations are fortunate today that technology tools such as advanced analytics and artificial intelligence (AI) are available to help them deliver enhanced customer experience. This notion of customer experience is the thing that creates competitive advantage for companies." Letting data be the guideCompanies in various industries could see benefits from investing in analytics to improve customer experience. Similarly, banks can work with IBM Consulting to improve customer experiences and build loyalty by improving the digital experience. Building better customer experiencesCandy says there are several best practices organizations should consider to help develop successful customer experience strategies utilizing data analytics and AI tools.

Inflation may be picking up in Japan but that's in large part due to the yen's weakness this year. chartJapan's economic surprises index is still negative, having rolled over this month. Others, like the China and emerging market indexes, have fallen off a cliff in recent days and are deeply negative. China's economic surprises index is hovering around its lowest level since June, and the emerging market index this week hit its lowest and most negative level in over a year. With the U.S. economic surprises index now in negative territory and the lowest since September, growth fears are mounting and risk assets are feeling the heat.

☆ Worker demands for more money on the job hit a record level, a New York Fed survey finds
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Eric Rosenbaum | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The level surpassed the $73,283 record reached earlier this year in March, which it had more recently dipped below. The continued strength in the labor market will will put pressure on companies to keep using price as a lever to make back some of the margin lost to labor costs. This approach to offering more pay doesn't tie them into salary increases which can't be easily reversed, and also does not factor into the wage inflation trend for long. But for now Powell is stuck with a labor market that isn't relenting to Fed policy as quickly as hoped. "We do see a very, very strong labor market, one where we haven't seen much softening, where job growth is very high, where wages are very high.

☆ With inflation still elevated, a recession looming, and workers still in short supply, the minimum salary people will accept right now is almost $74,000
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

That's according to average reservation wage results from the New York Fed's SCE Labor Market Survey. The average reservation wage in November 2022 was $73,667, 4.7% higher than the average a year earlier. Prices are soaring, the labor market is still hot, and some small businesses are having a hard time filling openings. The average reservation wage from March 2020 to November 2022 climbed more for employed people, compared to peers who aren't working. The record reservation wage also backs up what economic data has continually shown: The labor market doesn't seem too worried about a recession.

☆ Buy Now, Pay Later—and Discount Never
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Telis Demos | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Selling inventory is a way for merchants to generate cash, which is increasingly valuable amid higher corporate borrowing costs. There is more than one way to give shoppers a discount. That was a part of retailers’ early holiday season: Cyber Monday featured high discount levels, such as a peak of 25% off listed prices for electronics versus just 8% a year prior, according to Adobe ‘s annual analysis. That wasn’t a surprise given reports of excessive inventory levels at many retailers. But slashing prices, while effective, can also be distressing, affecting your brand or creating consumer expectations of perpetual sales.

☆ Google's popular program to turbocharge climate startups doesn't take equity and is open in Europe. Its sustainability boss explains how to land a spot.
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Tasmin Lockwood | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Google for Startups has launched an equity-free climate change accelerator in Europe. The Google for Startups Accelerator: Climate Change program has launched in Europe after running for two years in North America. Some 21 startups have taken part in the original program, chosen out of a pool of "hundreds," according to Google. It comes as Europe continues to grapple with high energy prices; Google hopes the accelerator will help respond to the crisis. He is looking for agenda-setting solutions that help companies or individuals "really leapfrog" forward.

The New York Fed survey began in 2013. The one-year ahead expected inflation reading was also the lowest of the year. GOOD NEWS FOR FED'S INFLATION STRUGGLESThe expected path of inflation is a key variable in that process. A large part of the near-term fall in expected inflation is likely tied toward recent declines in always-volatile gasoline prices. The New York Fed reported that respondents said in November they see household incomes rising by 4.5%, from October’s 4.3%, a record-high reading.

☆ Americans said in November they're expecting inflation pressures to wane
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Dec 12 (Reuters) - Americans said last month that they are expecting notably weaker inflation pressures over coming years, the New York Fed said Monday in its latest Survey of Consumer Expectations. The bank reported that respondents foresee a record month-to-month drop in inflation a year from now, with inflation expected to rise by 5.2% versus the 5.9% projected increase in October. The New York Fed survey began in 2013. The one-year ahead expected inflation reading was also the lowest of the year. It came as the respondents said in the report that they are expecting smaller price rises for a range of key goods and services.

☆ Consumers see inflation easing considerably in the next year, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

In addition to the brightened short-term outlook, the inflation-rate projection for three years from now edged lower to 3%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The most recent annual inflation rate as gauged by the consumer price index was 7.7% in October. The central bank's Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that respondents see one-year inflation running at a 5.2% pace, down 0.7 percentage point from the October reading. The survey comes as Fed officials have indicated the likelihood of a 0.5 percentage point interest rate hike coming this week when policymakers conclude their two-day meeting Wednesday. Respondents to the New York Fed survey said they see gas prices rising 4.7% and food up 8.3% in the year ahead.

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