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☆ Dollar advances as traders weigh rate cut expectations, eyes on data
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Traders are back projecting cuts of 160 bps this year, up from expectations of 140 bps last week. Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, said the risk is that Waller could push back on market pricing for a March cut and show a lack of urgency to normalize policy. "That said, should he even remotely validate market pricing, then we should see U.S. 2-year bond yields fall further. Markets are pricing around 120 bps of rate cuts by the Bank of England in 2024, with the first one most likely in May. Elsewhere, the Australian dollar fell 0.43% to $0.6632, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.39% to $0.6176.

Persons: Hamish Pepper, Christopher Waller, Waller, Chris Weston, Weston, Bank's Joachim Nagel Organizations: U.S, Federal, Bank of Japan, Fed, Traders, Asset Management, Treasury, Bank of England, New Zealand Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S

☆ Fed's Christopher Waller advocates moving 'carefully' with rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller acknowledged Tuesday that interest rate cuts are likely this year, but said the central bank can take its time relaxing monetary policy. "When the time is right to begin lowering rates, I believe it can and should be lowered methodically and carefully," he added. "In many previous cycles ... the FOMC cut rates reactively and did so quickly and often by large amounts. I see no reason to move as quickly or cut as rapidly as in the past." In fact, traders had further ramped up expectations for 2024 to seven cuts, but brought it back to six following Waller's remarks.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller Organizations: Federal, Washington , D.C, Brookings Institution Locations: Washington ,

☆ Jim Cramer says the market is ready for a pullback
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Julie Coleman | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC's Jim Cramer on Tuesday said the market's ready for a pullback because many stocks, including tech companies touting artificial intelligence initiatives, have climbed too quickly without a solid basis for doing so. "While I'm not a bear, we have way too many stocks that have gone parabolic, meaning they're straight up, and they're going straight up on nothing," Cramer said. While he said he's not rooting for the downfall of the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks, they need to "rest up" unless new legitimate information crops up to propel them forward. According to Cramer, health-care stocks are also starting to see some reversals after the hype last week at the JPMorgan conference. Although Cramer said he likes many of these health-care companies, he said their stocks should come down before investors think about buying.

Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer, Christopher Waller Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal, JPMorgan

☆ Stock futures are little changed on Tuesday evening: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, on Tuesday, Jan. 3, 2023. Stock futures were flat in overnight trading following a losing session to kick off the holiday-shortened trading week. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average hovered near the flatline, along with S&P 500 futures . Interactive Brokers lost nearly 3% in extended trading after posting fourth quarter adjusted earnings that fell short of expectations. The Federal Reserve's beige book and business inventories for November are also slated for Wednesday, along with remarks from New York Federal Reserve Bank President and CEO John Williams.

Persons: Stocks, Christopher Waller, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Jeffrey Buchbinder, Dow Jones, Charles Schwab, John Williams Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Interactive, Federal Reserve, Dow, Bank of America, LPL, U.S . Bancorp, New York Federal Reserve Bank Locations: New York, New

☆ A Fed Governor Reiterates That Rate Cuts Are Coming
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Jeanna Smialek | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

A prominent Federal Reserve official on Tuesday laid out a case for lowering interest rates methodically at some point this year as the economy comes into balance and inflation cools — although he acknowledged that the timing of those cuts remained uncertain. Christopher Waller, one of the Fed’s seven Washington-based officials and one of the 12 policymakers who gets to vote at its meetings, said during a speech at the Brookings Institution on Tuesday that he saw a case for cutting interest rates in 2024. “The data we have received the last few months is allowing the committee to consider cutting the policy rate in 2024,” Mr. Waller said. While noting that risks of higher inflation remain, he said “I am feeling more confident that the economy can continue along its current trajectory.”Mr. Waller suggested that the Fed should lower interest rates as inflation falls. Because interest rates do not incorporate price changes, otherwise so-called real rates that are adjusted for inflation would otherwise be climbing as inflation came down, thus weighing on the economy more and more heavily.

Persons: Christopher Waller, ” Mr, Waller, “, Mr Organizations: Federal Reserve, Brookings Institution Locations: Washington

☆ Cramer likes this health care stock that has corrected but whose fundamentals are improving
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( Paulina Likos | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch audio feature in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Jim Cramer said is looking for stocks that have fallen after a big run but whose fundamentals are improving, like GE Healthcare . As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Stocks, Christopher Waller, Ruth Porat, Morgan Stanley, Danaher, Estee Lauder, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Fed, Bloomberg, GE Healthcare, Nvidia, Palo, Disney, ESPN, NFL, JPMorgan Healthcare, Bank, DuPont, Bank of America, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Davos, Palo Alto

☆ Gold frail as dollar, yields strength dim shine
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An employee handles one kilogram gold bullion at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold prices were subdued on Tuesday as the dollar and Treasury yields rose, while traders waited to hear from a slew of U.S. Federal Reserve speakers this week for more clarity on the central bank's rate cut prospects. The dollar index touched a 10-day high, making bullion less attractive for other currency holders, while yields on benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury notes rose above 4%. Elsewhere, European Central Bank officials pushed back against market expectations for rapid rate cuts this year. According to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao, spot gold may retrace to $2,042 per ounce, after its repeated failures to break resistance at $2,060.

Persons: Christopher Waller's, Matt Simpson, Christopher Waller, Waller, Simpson, Wang Tao Organizations: Co, . Federal Reserve, Index, Fed, Brookings Institution, Traders, Central Bank Locations: Bangkok, Thailand

☆ The Fed could cut interest rates as early as the first quarter of 2024. Here are 7 quotes from central bankers that hint at what comes next.
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-05 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Markets are betting the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as soon as early 2024. AdvertisementWall Street largely anticipates that the Federal Reserve has finished its interest rate-hiking cycle, and markets are betting central bankers will begin easing policy soon. Tom Barkin, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond president, November 29: "If inflation comes down naturally and smoothly, awesome. Mary Daly, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco president, November 30: "I'm not thinking about rate cuts at all right now. John Williams, Federal Reserve Bank of New York president, November 30: "My assessment is that we are at, or near, the peak level of the target range of the federal funds rate."

Persons: Jerome Powell, —, CME's, Christopher Waller, Tom Barkin, Raphael Bostic, Mary Daly, John Williams, Williams Organizations: Federal Reserve, Service, ING, Barclays, Federal Reserve Bank, Richmond, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Federal

Since June, the quarterly "dot plot" of policymakers' projections of the appropriate path of policy has shown rates rising another quarter point this year. Investors will be eager for the boost a rate cut would give to markets, and consumers will be relieved by lower mortgage and credit rates. Indeed, in remarks last week Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that over the last six months inflation had averaged around 2.5%. Investors, meanwhile, have become increasingly fixed on March as a starting point for rate cuts. Between falling inflation and a modest slowdown in growth, Powell said: "We are getting what we wanted to get."

Persons: Vincent Reinhart, Dreyfus, Reinhart, Donald Trump, Michael Gapen, Gapen, Jerome Powell, Powell, Christopher Waller, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal Reserve, Mellon, WE, Republican, Bank of America, Fed, Spelman College, Thomson Locations: U.S, Atlanta

☆ Gold prices sprint to all-time peak on Fed rate-cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold and silver bars of various sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum. Gold prices bolted to an all-time high above $2,100 per ounce on Monday as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks elevated traders' confidence that the U.S. central bank could cut interest rates early next year. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-interest-bearing bullion. Investor focus now shift to U.S. non-farm payrolls data — a key employment report due on Friday, that could influence the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Spot silver rose 0.1% to $25.45 per ounce, palladium fell 0.4% to $929.93 per ounce, and platinum was down 0.1% at $999.35.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Powell, we're, Tim Waterer, Waterer, CME's, Christopher Waller Organizations: Aurum, KCM Trade, Traders, U.S, Fed Locations: U.S

Yields on the U.S. benchmark 10-year Treasury , which move inversely to prices, saw their steepest decline in more than a decade. The Fed chair reiterated that the fight against inflation was far from finished and said the central bank was ready to further tighten monetary policy if necessary. Investors see a strong chance of the central bank delivering a rate cut as early as March 2024, LSEG data show. In late 2022, for example, many expected a recession would hit this year, forcing the Fed to loosen monetary policy. The economy proved resilient while monetary policy stayed tight.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Brendan McDermid, Powell, Paul Nolte, Christopher Waller, “ Powell, that’s, ”, Ed Al, James St . Aubin, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Daniel Wallis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Treasury, Murphy, Sylvest Wealth Management, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Sierra Investment Management, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Asia shares start Dec on cautious note, oil nurses losses
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.5% after a surge of 7.3% last month, the most since January. The Federal Reserve's preferred gauge of inflation - the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - stood unchanged for October, while consumer spending also pulled back. Fed funds futures imply rate cuts of 115 basis points. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes slipped 3 basis points in Asia to 4.3264%, on top of a plunge of 52.2 basis points for the month. Two-year Treasury yields fell 4 basis points to 4.674%.

Persons: Tyrone Siu, sharemarkets, HSI, Rodrigo Catril, Jerome Powell's Q, Waller, Robert Carnell, Christopher Waller, Treasuries, Stella Qiu, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Tyrone, Rights, Japan's Nikkei, National Australia Bank . Regional, Federal, Traders, ING, Fed, South Korean, Philippine, Brent, West Texas, Thomson Locations: Exchange, Hong Kong, China, Europe, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, South

☆ Fed Chair Powell: Too early to say when to expect rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

While Powell and other officials say they’re not even thinking about cutting rates just yet, some investors expect cuts to begin around the middle of next year. With Treasury yields sliding in recent weeks, so have mortgage rates, and rate cuts next year would help that along. Inflation, spending and mortgagesConsumer spending and inflation both eased in October, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. What Fed officials are sayingFed officials have broadly acknowledged that economic conditions are setting the stage for inflation to continue its descent. While some Fed officials have expressed optimism, others remain unconvinced that the Fed’s job is done.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Powell, ”, Powell, they’re, Freddie Mac, Christopher Waller, John Williams, “ We’ve, Michelle Bowman, “ Organizations: DC CNN — Investors, Federal, Spelman College, Treasury, Fed, December’s Fed, Commerce Department, ”, Washington . New York Fed, New York Fed Locations: Washington, Atlanta, September’s, America, doldrums, Washington . New, Salt Lake City

☆ Morning Bid: Markets wary Powell may undermine rate-cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell answers a question during a press conference at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. The disconnect between financial markets and central banks has only deepened as central banks push back against talk of rate cuts while markets take in the relatively more benign inflation data of recent weeks. That helped to embolden markets to take on rate-cut bets. Markets are now pricing in a 46% chance of the central bank cutting rates in March, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Speakers: Bank of England MPC member Megan Greene, ECB President Christine Lagarde, Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Ankur Banerjee, Christopher Waller, Powell, Elon Musk, Megan Greene, Christine Lagarde, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Ankur, Fed, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Europe, Asia, France, UK, Germany, Singapore

☆ Morning Bid: Powell's final shot to shape markets before December Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A street sign for Wall Street is seen in the financial district in New York, U.S., November 8, 2021. Markets are now fully pricing a rate cut by the May meeting with almost a 50% chance they move in March, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Reuters GraphicsThe 10-year yield is down around 15 basis points and on Thursday hit its lowest level in 2-1/2 months at 4.247%. On Wednesday, the dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, touched its lowest level since Aug. 11 and dropped over 3% last month, its worst month in a year. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Samuel Indyk, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Christopher Waller, Europe's, Fed's, Fed's Cook, ECB's, Fitch, Toby Chopra Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Federal, Fed, Spelman College, Reuters, COVID, P Global, PMI, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, France, Greece, Ireland, DBRS, Germany, Spain

☆ US bond investors brace for Fed rate cuts in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders' confidence was reinforced earlier this week when Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a hawkish policymaker, flagged a possible rate cut in the months ahead. SOFR FUTURESBond investors also look to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures to gauge expectations of Fed rate moves. The June 2024 SOFR futures have priced at least one Fed cut, while the probability of two 25-basis-point rate reductions was at 76%. An OIS transaction involves exchanging an overnight rate such as the federal funds rate for a fixed one. For instance, in a U.S. two-year OIS transaction, one party receives a fixed two-year rate in exchange for paying the fed funds rate daily over the next two years.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Robert Pavlik, Pavlik, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell's, It's, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Stephen Culp, Alden Bentley, Paul Simao Organizations: Wall, REUTERS, Bond, U.S, Dakota Wealth Management, Fed, Spelman College, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Fairfield , Connecticut, Atlanta

Fresh data shows price pressures are easing and the labor market is gradually cooling, evidence that the slowdown the Fed has tried to engineer with its rate hikes to date is underway. Still, the unemployment rate at last read was 3.9%, only a few tenths of a percentage point above where it was when the Fed first began raising rates in March 2022. UNCERTAIN PATHTraders have been betting heavily that the Fed will keep its overnight benchmark interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the next several months. "I'm not losing too much sleep" over the market's view "because there's a lot of uncertainty about the future path of policy," Williams said. "I'm not thinking about rate cuts at all right now," Daly said.

Persons: John Williams, Williams, Janet Yellen, I'm, Mary Daly, Daly, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Oscar Munoz, Dan Burns, Michael S, Howard Schneider, David Lawder, Chizu Nomiyama, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci, Will Dunham Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed Bank, Fed, U.S, Treasury, PATH Traders, San Francisco Fed, Spelman College, Derby, Thomson Locations: U.S, New, Atlanta

☆ Treasury yields are slightly higher as investors await fresh inflation insights
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Yields and prices have an inverted relationship and one basis point equals 0.01%. The 10-year Treasury yield was up by 2 basis point at 4.299%, after having fallen below 4.3% for the first time since September on Wednesday. The 2-year Treasury yield was nearly 1 basis point higher at 4.657%. U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Thursday as investors assessed the outlook for Federal reserve monetary policy and awaited key economic data that could give fresh inflation insights. Also on Thursday, initial weekly jobless claims and pending home sales for October are expected and euro zone inflation data for November will be published.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell Organizations: Wednesday, Wednesday . U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: Wednesday .

☆ Dollar drifts near three-month low, focus on inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The index is down 3.7% in November on growing expectations the Fed will cut interest rates in the first half of 2024. The dollar clawed back some of its losses on Wednesday after data showed the U.S. economy grew faster in the third quarter than initially reported. "Markets will continue to play to focus on what FOMC officials say about the prospect of the upcoming rate-hike cycle." Two of the best-performers are at the polar opposite ends of the "carry" spectrum — the New Zealand dollar and Japanese yen . On Thursday, yen strengthened 0.09% to 147.11 per dollar, remaining close to two and half month high of 146.675 per dollar it touched on Wednesday.

Persons: Carol Kong, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Christopher Wong, Goldman Sachs, Sterling Organizations: Federal, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Bank of Japan Locations: U.S

For much of this year central banks have successfully pushed back against rate cut bets. "I believe the Fed will act rationally and begin to cut rates by the end of next year, but we can't rule out the scenario that the Fed is not going to cut rates and just let the ramifications of recession do what they do." Reuters GraphicsSHIFT NEARINGMarkets now fully price in a 25 basis point U.S. rate cut in May, having seen a 65% chance earlier this week. "There are now committee members in all three (banks) willing to talk about rate cuts next year," said Chris Jeffery, head of rates and inflation strategy at LGIM. "The ECB should begin to ease policy as soon as April 2024, with risks that a more sinister downturn in growth could warrant a rate cut as soon as March," he said.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, ramping, It's, Nate Thooft, Goldman, Christopher Waller, Huw Pill, Yannis Stournaras, Chris Jeffery, we'd, Dario Perkins, Simon Harvey, Yoruk, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Roberston, Davide Barbuscia, Ira Iosebasvili, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Dhara Ranasinghe, Catherine Evans Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Manulife Investment Management, Treasury, Graphics, Bank of England, Deutsche, Lombard, Traders, Yoruk Bahceli, Thomson Locations: Washington, United States, Europe, Goldman Sachs, Greek, Amsterdam, London

☆ Morning Bid: November bids adieu with inflation data, OPEC
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. With signs of turn emerging in Federal Reserve policy guidance and October PCE inflation readings set to encourage that later in the day, rate cut fever was in full flow across the Atlantic too. Headline annual inflation in the bloc fell as low as 2.4% - within arm's length of the ECB's 2% target. Later on Thursday, U.S. PCE inflation for the prior month is pencilled to fall 3.0% from 3.4% - with a core also ebbing to 3.5%. "Monetary policy is in a good place," Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said on Wednesday, echoing comments from previously hawkish Fed governor Christopher Waller the previous day.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, policymaker Fabio Panetta, Loretta Mester, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Christine Lagarde, Megan Greene, Kroger, Bernadette Baum Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of Italy, policymaker, U.S ., ECB, Cleveland Fed, Wall, OPEC, Dallas Fed, PMI, York Federal, Bank of England, Academy Sports, Rock Biotech, Titan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Canada, Vienna, Automotive, Duluth, BOS, Jan

☆ Euro zone inflation dents euro, dollar rises from three-month low
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A New Zealand dollar coin sits atop a United States one dollar bill in this photo illustration taken on March 11, 2016. Consumer price growth in the 20 nations that share the euro currency dropped to 2.4% in November from 2.9% in October, well below expectations for a fall to 2.7%. The euro dropped as much as 0.5% against the dollar to $1.0910. The Japanese currency has firmed almost 3% against the dollar in November and is on course for its strongest month this year. Sterling was last at $1.2646, down 0.39% on the day, while the Australian dollar fell 0.1% to $0.6610.

Persons: David Gray, Matthew Landon, disinflation, Landon, ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta, Mohamad Al, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller, Christopher Wong, Toyoaki Nakamura, Sterling, It's, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill, Miral Fahmy, Susan Fenton Organizations: New Zealand, REUTERS, European Central Bank, Morgan Private Bank, ECB, ECB policymaker, Danske Bank, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: States, Europe, U.S, London, Singapore

☆ Asia stocks closing in on strongest month since January
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-30 | by ( Kane Wu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A man is reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. The MSCI Asia-ex-Japan stocks index (.MIAPJ0000PUS) is up 6.7% so far this month, setting it on course to mark the best month since January. South Korea's KOSPI (.KS11) has led the rally in Asia with 10.5% gains this month, followed closely by Taiwan (.TWII) and Japan's Nikkei Average index (.N225). Ten-year U.S. yields are down more than 60 basis points in November, on track for the steepest monthly drop since late 2008. U.S. financial conditions are the loosest since early September and have eased 100 basis points in a month, according to Goldman Sachs.

Persons: Issei Kato, Korea's, Christopher Waller, Waller, Redmond Wong, Goldman Sachs, J.P.Morgan, Brent, Kane Wu, Vidya Ranganathan, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Fed, Stock, U.S, Wednesday, Saxo Markets, Organization of, Petroleum, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, HONG KONG, U.S, Asia, Taiwan, Greater China, China, Russia, Hong Kong

That was the lowest year-over-year inflation rate in more than 2 1/2 years. Core prices rose 3.5% in October from a year earlier, below the 3.7% year-over-year increase in September. Those price increases, though smaller than they were last year, are still faster than was typically true before the pandemic. The declines in spending on those items suggests that the Fed's rate increases are discouraging purchases in some areas. The central bank’s rate rate hikes have elevated the costs of mortgages, auto loans and other forms of consumer borrowing as well as business loans.

Persons: They've, ” Vincent Reinhart, Christopher Waller, Waller Organizations: WASHINGTON, Commerce Department, Dreyfus, Mellon, AAA, Fed Locations: Europe, U.S

Rates futures markets are showing cuts being priced as early as May 2024, according to LSEG data. The prospects for rate cuts received a boost on Tuesday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, deemed a hawk, hinted at lower interest rates in the months ahead if inflation continued to ease. Deutsche Bank economists on Monday projected 175 basis points in Fed rate cuts in 2024, but said that those cuts would come with a mild recession in the first half of next year. “Absent rapid Fed easing, we expect a more challenging macro backdrop for stocks next year,” they wrote in a Wednesday report. Others said investors may be overestimating how quickly the Fed might react to signs of slowing inflation.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Jack Ablin, ” Ablin, Christopher Waller, ”, Jake Schurmeier, Schurmeier, Thomas Barkin, Charlie McElligott, Michael Green, David Randall, Lewis Krauskopf, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Cresset, Gross, Harbor, Reuters, Richmond Fed, Nomura Securities, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Management, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, stoke, Carolina, New York

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