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☆ Asia-Pacific markets open lower after Federal Reserve rate cut optimism sent markets higher last week
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-23 | by ( Anniek Bao | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A Chinese flag in Pudong's Lujiazui Financial District in Shanghai, China, on Sept. 18, 2023. Asia-Pacific markets opened lower Monday as investors assessed monetary policy decisions from Japan and China on Friday after U.S. Federal Reserve's sharp rate cut sent markets higher last week. Despite growing calls for lower interest rates, the People's Bank of China unexpectedly left its key benchmark rate on hold on Friday. The Reserve Bank of Australia starts its two-day policy meeting on Monday, where central bankers will decide on the country's monetary policy path on Tuesday. Overall year-on-year CPI is expected to have cooled to 2.15%, compared to 2.40% the previous month

Organizations: National Bureau of Statistics, People's Bank of China, Reserve Bank of Australia Locations: Lujiazui, Shanghai, China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Federal, Singapore

☆ Fed Governor Waller says inflation softening faster than he expected put him in half-point-cut camp
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday he supported a half percentage point rate cut at this week's meeting because inflation is falling even faster than he had expected. A week before the Fed meeting, markets were overwhelmingly pricing in a 25 basis point cut. Along with the decision, individual officials signaled the likelihood of another half point in cuts this year, followed by a full percentage point of reductions in 2025. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman was the only Federal Open Market Committee member to vote against the reduction, instead preferring a smaller quarter percentage point cut. "I was a big advocate of large rate hikes when inflation was moving much, much faster than any of us expected," he said.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, CNBC's Steve Liesman, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Jerome Powell Organizations: Federal, CNBC, Fed, Market, Commerce Department

☆ The Fed surprised many investors with a jumbo rate cut this week. It won’t get much easier to predict the next move
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-20 | by ( Elisabeth Buchwald | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

But Wall Street was mostly clueless this week when it came to predicting how big a rate cut the Fed would deliver on Wednesday. The jumbo half-point cut the Fed ultimately rolled out was not at all what traders expected a week ago. Powell: Fed officials ‘left the size of the rate cut open’ ahead of September meetingIn a closely watched speech at the Fed’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, last month, Powell declared “the time has come” to cut interest rates. That data was apparently enough to spur some Fed officials to reconsider their position. “But we do not expect Fed officials to be intentionally opaque,” said Husby.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, ‘, “, Price, Christopher Waller, ”, Powell’s, Thomas Simons, ” Simons, Michelle Bowman, “ We’re, Andrew Husby, Waller, there’s Organizations: New, New York CNN — Federal, Fed, PPI, CNBC, Jefferies, BNP Locations: New York, Jackson Hole , Wyoming

☆ High home prices aren't 'something the Fed can really fix,' says Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-19 | by ( Mike Winters | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

They received some relief on Wednesday when the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points, which will lower mortgage costs. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell said the "real issue" behind high prices in the U.S. housing market is a lack of supply, which isn't "something the Fed can really fix." With rates dropping, Powell also said that "more people are likely to start moving," which could boost home sales. Powell also said that shelter costs in the CPI tend to lag behind real-time prices, so the recent slowdown in home and rent prices prices isn't fully reflected yet. The best thing the Fed can do for U.S. households is get "inflation broadly down" and reduce the cost of borrowing by "normalizing" interest rates, Powell said.

Persons: Jerome Powell, There's, Powell's, Powell, it's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, National Association of Realtors, Consumer, CNBC Locations: U.S

☆ UK inflation holds steady in August, matching expectations
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Anadolu | Getty ImagesLONDON — U.K. inflation held steady during the month of August, data from the Office for National Statistics showed Wednesday, and matched analyst expectations. Headline CPI had come in at 2% in May and June, in line with the Bank of England's target rate. Services inflation — which is closely watched by the BOE, given its dominance within the U.K. economy and its reflection of domestically-generated price rises — rose to 5.6% in August from 5.2% in July. Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 3.6%, up from the 3.3% recorded in July. "Despite recent data showing a stagnation in UK economic output and easing wage growth, core inflation remains sticky, with services inflation rising from 5.2% to 5.6% which will weigh heavily on the BOE's decision-making," Carter said in a note.

Persons: BOE, Richard Carter, Cheviot, Carter Organizations: Anadolu, Getty, Office, National Statistics, Headline CPI, Bank of, U.S . Federal Reserve

☆ Charts suggest traders should wait before they keep chasing utilities — the hottest trade of the year
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-18 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Traders instantly react to the data (sometimes wildly so), especially when the actual numbers are distinctly different than estimates. Thus, historically, XLU has been correlated with the direction of treasury bonds (which move in the opposite direction of bond yields). Here's a chart with XLU and the TLT 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, which we're using since it's the most widely traded treasury bond ETF. From 2022 through 2023, XLU and TLT moved in the same direction more often than not. Another reason is simply that investors are aggressively seeking yield producing instruments, with the understanding that bond yields were destined to fall.

Persons: XLU, That's, TLT, We're Organizations: Federal Reserve, PPI, Utilities, Treasury Bond ETF, Bollinger, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: XLU

☆ Dollar pinned down by 50 bp Fed cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar traded near its lowest levels of the year on Tuesday, on the eve of the expected the start to a U.S. easing cycle that markets are betting may begin with an outsized rate cut. The euro rallied overnight to $1.1138 and traded around there early in the Asia session, not far from the year's high against the dollar of $1.1201. Fed funds futures rallied on Monday to push the chance of a 50 basis point rate cut to 67%, against 30% a week ago. "That's because the contrast between central bank outlooks will remain starkest between the Fed and the BoJ, for the time being." The U.S. dollar index weakened 0.4% overnight to 100.7, not far from its 2024 low made last month at 100.51.

Persons: Sterling — Organizations: Macquarie, Fed, Bank of, The Bank of England, New, U.S Locations: U.S, Asia, Tokyo, Bank of Japan, New Zealand

☆ Welcome to interest-rate cut week: Here's how the Fed's next move will impact everything from home prices to new cars loans
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( Madison Hoff | Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

According to CME FedWatch, which estimates interest rate changes based on market predictions, the size of the rate cut is a coin toss. As of Friday afternoon, there's a 51% chance the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points and a 49% chance it'll be an extra-large 50-basis-point cut. That's because a larger rate cut makes borrowing cheaper, which tends to drive up spending and fuel price increases. Rate cuts will also eventually make it cheaper for small businesses to take out loans. A rate cut could cause a rush of buyers to enter the market in the short term, driving up prices and competition.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Michael Madowitz, she's, McTier, it'll, Mark Hamrick, Banks, Hamrick, NerdWallet, Sara Rathner Organizations: Service, Federal, CME FedWatch, Federal Reserve, Business, Washington Center for Equitable Growth, Fed, Consumer Financial, Bureau, asheffey Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, McTier

☆ The 2 things that will determine whether last week's stock market rally will continue this week
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-15 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +11 min

The S & P 500 rebounded 4% this past week, almost clawing back all of the prior week's horrible decline. Fed watch The Fed is the big market event this week. ET: Fed rate decision Before the bell: General Mills (GIS) After the bell: Steelcase (SCS) Thursday, Sept. 19 8:30 a.m. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: Jim Cramer, Jensen Huang's, Goldman Sachs, Jim, Huang, Lisa Su, Su, Vimal Kapur, Morgan, Brian Niccol, Wells, Morgan Stanley, Jerome Powell, They're, Lennar, Doug Yearley, Mills, LEN, Jim Cramer's, Spencer Platt Organizations: Federal, Dow, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Club, Technology, CNBC, Oracle, Devices, TAM, Apple, Honeywell, Starbucks, Barclays Global Financial Services, Fed, FedEx, homebuilder, Home Depot, Darden, Jim Cramer's Charitable, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Las Vegas, U.S, America, Horton, New York City

☆ S&P 500 rallies back to old highs, setting up Fed meeting to be make or break moment
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-14 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The market's turn toward treating good economic news as positive for stocks is pictured here in a chart from Citi strategists, showing the three-month correlation between the S & P 500 and the Citi U.S. Economic Surprise index has turned sharply higher. The S & P 500's low for the week was Wednesday morning, right at the 5400 level where it previously hit a low a week ago Friday after a tepid employment report. Forward 12-month S & P 500 earnings forecasts continue to rise smartly, now approaching $270. But, thanks to the past two months of sideways churn, that's down from 21.7 when the S & P first hit its current level in July. And the rally last week could well have front-run any potential positive inference from the Fed's move next week.

Persons: Ally Financial, Ed Hyman, Loretta Mester, William Dudley, John Kolovos Organizations: Citi, Citi U.S, Fed, Ally, CPI, Wall Street, Financial Times, Treasury, National Association of Active Investment, American Association of

☆ Federal Reserve will opt for slow policy easing as there's 'still work to do' on inflation, Fitch says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"One reason we expect Fed easing to proceed at a relatively gentle pace is that there is still work to do on inflation," the report said. On a month-on-month basis, inflation rose 0.2% from July. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% for the month, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate. The 12-month core inflation rate held at 3.2%, in line with the forecast. It took far longer than anticipated to tame inflation and gaps have been revealed in central banks' understanding of what drives inflation."

Persons: Fitch, Dow Jones Organizations: U.S, Fitch, Labor Department, CPI, Fed Locations: Federal

☆ 2-year Treasury yield slides as investors assess interest rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over four basis points to 3.6364%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last more than six basis points lower to 3.5824%. Attention began to turn to the Federal Reserve meeting next week at which the central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates. Traders were last pricing in a 59% chance of a 12-basis-point rate cut and a 41% probability of a 50-basis-point reduction, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The Fed's meeting is set to begin Tuesday before concluding Wednesday, with the interest rate decision and a post-meeting press conference.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Traders, PPI, Dow

☆ A market and tech hedge ahead of an uncertain Fed decision next week
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Jeff Kilburg | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve has telegraphed the kickoff of their interest rate cutting campaign to begin next week. I believe a quarter-point interest rate cut is their first step but, a half-point interest rate cut (which has the ability to roil markets) has recently been floated strongly. The Nasdaq-100 dropped 6% last week and is now up nearly 5% this week, these are not normal market conditions. QQQ YTD mountain Invesco QQQ Trust, YTD The Cboe Volatility Index , yet elevated, is not showing current signs of panic. The trade The CME Fedwatch tool is narrowly favoring a 25 basis point interest rate cut but, it is oddly closer to a coin toss than it was last week.

Persons: pont, QQQ Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Nasdaq, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL

☆ 6 Wall Street experts share why investors could be overestimating how much the Fed will cut rates after August's inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The print is causing concern that inflation may not be going away, which would mean higher interest rates than markets expect going forward. Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer, Regan CapitalWeinand says the market's current outlook on rate cuts will only take place if the economy deteriorates significantly. If inflation does slow that much, the Fed would likely cut rates faster than just a quarter percent per meeting over the next 3-6 months," Adams said in an email. "However, the stickiness of service price inflation and shelter inflation suggests the Fed will cut rates slower than financial markets currently price in." This would be a disappointment to short-term bond markets that have priced over 250 bps of rate cuts by the end of 2025."

Persons: Brian Rose, UBS Global Wealth Management Rose, Rose, Skyler Weinand, Regan Capital Weinand, Bill Adams, Adams, Peter Perkins, MRB Partners Perkins, Josh Jamner, ClearBridge Investments Jamner, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli Organizations: Service, CPI, Business, UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS Global Wealth, Fed, Comerica Bank, MRB Partners, Investment, ClearBridge Investments, Independent, bps

☆ CNBC Daily Open: All key data is in — and it's made the Fed's policy path more uncertain
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Last Friday, the August employment report showed the number of jobs added was lower than expected but higher than the previous month. Wednesday's CPI report showed the lowest 12-month inflation rate in two-and-a-half years. In short, the data hasn't cleared up whether the Fed will cut by 25 or 50 basis points. They think there's a 57% chance of a 25 point cut and 43% of a 50 point one, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Persons: Stefani Reynolds, We've, Wednesday's, Jeff Cox, Pia Singh, Sarah Min Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, CNBC, U.S . Federal Reserve, PPI Locations: Washington ,

☆ Gold inches higher as investors eye U.S. data for rate cues
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, with traders focusing on the upcoming U.S. economic data that may offer further insights into an expected reduction in the Federal Reserve's interest rate next week. Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, with traders focusing on the upcoming U.S. economic data that may offer further insights into an expected reduction in the Federal Reserve's interest rate next week. Data on Wednesday showed that U.S. consumer prices rose marginally in August, but underlying inflation showed some stickiness, which could discourage the Federal Reserve from delivering a half-point interest rate cut next week. CPI data showed no major inflation spikes, which is supporting gold prices to hold above $2,500 and suggesting no immediate changes to Fed policy, Wong added. Palladium climbed 1.3% to $1,021.84, its highest since July 8, following comments on export regulations from Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Persons: Kelvin Wong, OANDA's, Price, Wong, Vladimir Putin, Putin Organizations: Asia Pacific, Traders, U.S, PPI, Reserve, West Locations: U.S, Moscow

☆ Just the Facts – The U.S. Economy and Your Pocketbook: Steve Ballmer Talks Through the Numbers
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Sponsor Post | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

Between 2021 and 2022, average annual grocery prices were up 11.4%, the highest increase since 1979. In this episode of "Just the Facts," the US Economy and your Pocketbook. Let's take a look at the economy and how it is working or not working for you. To measure inflation, let's start by looking at the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. Between 2021 and 2022, average annual grocery prices were up 11.4%, the highest increase since 1979, and they grew another 5% between 2022 and 2023.

Persons: Steve Ballmer, USAFacts, COVID, it's, There's Organizations: Insider Studios, LA Clippers, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Real, Social Security Locations: America, United

☆ Investors expecting an aggressive Fed cut are getting too 'ahead of the curve,' UBS CEO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | In Ying-Shan-Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The CEO of Swiss banking giant UBS said Thursday that the fight against inflation isn't over yet, and some investors seem to be getting too ahead of themselves in expecting that the U.S. Federal Reserve could pull an aggressive rate cut this month. "I think the market seems to be a little bit too ahead of the curve in expecting the Fed to go so aggressively," Sergio Ermotti, Group CEO of UBS Group AG, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia." The question of whether the Fed will lower rates at the end of its next policy meeting September 18 has largely been answered. The only question that remains is: by how much. The "most important" issue that the Fed needs consider is still inflation, which remains sticky and not yet "totally under control," Ermotti added.

Persons: Sergio Ermotti, CNBC's, Ermotti Organizations: UBS, U.S . Federal, UBS Group AG, Fed Locations: U.S

☆ Here's the deflation breakdown for August 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

It means that, in aggregate, the average prices of goods and services are rising, just more slowly. Where prices have deflatedFor example, prices have declined by about 5% for furniture and bedding and 3% for appliances since August 2023, according to CPI data. Outside of supply-demand dynamics, the U.S. dollar's strength relative to other global currencies has also helped rein in prices for goods, economists said. Airline fares have declined about 1% over the past year, according to CPI data. Grocery prices have fallen for items such as apples, potatoes, ham, coffee, rice, seafood and bananas, according to CPI data.

Persons: Stephen Brown, it's, Sarah House, They've, women's outerwear, Brown Organizations: North, Capital Economics, Finance, Social Security, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S, International Air Transport Association Locations: U.S, North America, Wells Fargo, China

☆ Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in August, in line with expectations
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Wholesale prices rose in August about in line with expectations, the final inflation data point as the Federal Reserve gets set to lower interest rates. The core increase was the same when excluding trade services. On a 12-month basis, headline PPI rose 1.7%. On the PPI measure, services prices pushed much of the gain, with a 0.4% monthly increase driven by a rise in services less trade, transportation and warehousing. The release comes a day after the BLS reported that consumer prices rose 0.2% on the month in line with expectations.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, of Labor Statistics, PPI, Labor Department, BLS

☆ Cooling jobs data might beat out inflation in forcing the Fed to deliver a big rate cut, Goldman Sachs CEO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Cooling labor data could still lead the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points, Goldman Sachs' David Solomon says. "I think the percentage chance is in the low 30s," Solomon said of a 50 basis point cut. The slightly hotter August CPI reading tilted the odds further in favor of a 25 basis point cut. AdvertisementIt wasn't long ago that Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon forecasted there could be no rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. Now, even as the latest inflation data has most investors pricing in a 25 basis point cut in September, Solomon says a larger cut could still be in the cards.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, Solomon, — Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, CNBC, Business

☆ CNBC's Inside India newsletter: What happens when the Fed cuts rates?
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Historically, a rate cut has been a signal for central banks in emerging markets, like India, to follow by easing monetary policy in their regions. The latest data shows that the inflation rate appears to be heading in the wrong direction in India. The headline inflation rate rose in August to 3.65% compared to 3.6% in the previous month. Instead, markets have simply hit snooze on a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India for the moment. If there's no global recession, a risk-on sentiment will likely help push up emerging market equities in the medium term after the U.S. central bank cuts rates.

Persons: Shah, Mahesh Nandurkar, Surendra Goyal, CNBC's, BofA, Banks Organizations: Federal, Reserve Bank of India, Reserve Bank, Capital Economics, India, greenback, Federal Reserve, Jefferies, Bank of America, Citi, India Research, Bank Locations: India, U.S

☆ Here’s the inflation breakdown for August 2024 — in one chart
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Greg Iacurci | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"We'd expect inflation to continue to subside," though with "some ups and downs" in the data from month to month, House said. Housing inflation is falling but still highInflation for physical goods spiked as the U.S. economy reopened in 2021. Shelter is largest component of the CPI, and therefore has an outsized effect on inflation readings. Such data quirks mask positive news in the real-time rental market, which has seen minimal inflation for about two years, economists said. However, shelter CPI inflation has appeared to defy gravity lately: It increased on a monthly basis for two consecutive months, from 0.2% in June to 0.4% in July, and then to 0.5% in August.

Persons: Grace Cary, Sarah House, It's, hasn't, Paul Ashworth, Ashworth, — Organizations: Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S . Department of Labor, North, Capital Economics, U.S . Federal, Finance, CPI, BLS Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, North America

☆ 'Ultra dovish' cuts may be off the table after CPI report, says Ed Yardeni
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Ultra dovish' cuts may be off the table after CPI report, says Ed YardeniEd Yardeni, Yardeni Research president, joins CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if core CPI report should be threatening to rate cuts, what he thinks about the proposed overhaul of Basel Endgame, and more.

Persons: Ed Yardeni Ed Yardeni Organizations: Yardeni Research Locations: Basel

☆ We're worried 'the Fed will be too slow' in cutting, says WisdomTree's Jeremy Schwartz
▼ + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe're worried 'the Fed will be too slow' in cutting, says WisdomTree's Jeremy SchwartzJeremy Schwartz, WisdomTree global chief investment officer, joins CNBC's 'Money Movers' to discuss his reaction to today's CPI report, why some argue 50 basis points is out of reach, and more.

Persons: We're, WisdomTree's Jeremy Schwartz Jeremy Schwartz, WisdomTree Organizations: CPI

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