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Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled less than expected last week, countering other signs that the labor market is weakening. Stock market futures, which had been negative earlier, turned sharply positive following the 8:30 a.m. In the previous week, claims had jumped by 14,000, adding to worries that layoffs are on the rise. "If you're looking for additional weakness in the labor market, you'll need to find it somewhere else." Concerns escalated over the state of the labor market following last Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, which showed an increase of just 114,000 in July.
Persons: Dow Jones, Beryl, Robert Frick, nonfarm Organizations: Labor Department, Navy Federal Credit Union, Federal Reserve Locations: Michigan, Texas, U.S
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Monday vowed that the central bank would react to signs of weakness in the economy and indicated that interest rates could be too restrictive now. Policymakers have been focused on the "real" fed funds rate, which is the Fed's benchmark minus the inflation rate. As inflation declines, the real rate increases — unless the Fed chooses to cut. The real rate now is around 2.73%; Fed officials judge the long-term real rate to be closer to 0.5%. Traders expect the Fed to slice 1.25-1.5 percentage points off the funds rate by the end of the year, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, nonfarm, I'm, we're Organizations: Chicago Federal, Dow Jones, Fed, Labor Department, Traders
Treasury yields tumble as recession concerns take hold
  + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over eight basis points to 3.7099%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 3.7315% after falling by around 14 basis points. U.S. Treasurys slid on Monday as fears about a recession grew after a series of key economic data was released last week. The data suggested an easing of the labor market, which prompted concerns about a recession. That came after the Fed earlier in the week left interest rates unchanged and hinted at a September rate cut.
Persons: Treasurys, July's nonfarm, Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, Dow, Fed, PMI
Gold prices set for weekly gain with U.S. payrolls data on tap
  + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices firmed on Friday and were set for a weekly gain, driven by prospects of a Fed rate cut in September and rising tensions in the Middle East, while market participants awaited U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for further direction. Gold prices firmed on Friday and were set for a weekly gain, driven by prospects of a Fed rate cut in September and rising tensions in the Middle East, while market participants awaited U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for further direction. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,451.07 per ounce, as of 0243 GMT, and has gained more than 2% for the week. Trader bets for a super-sized 50-basis-point rate cut in September jumped to 28.5% from 11.8% earlier this week, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. "Angst surrounding U.S. elections and the conflict in the Middle East will play an assisting role in moving gold higher on a sustained basis," analysts at TD Securities said in a note.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Ajay Kedia, Mohammed Deif Organizations: Federal, Kedia Commodities, TD Securities Locations: U.S, Mumbai, Gaza, Tehran
Safe-haven yen, Swiss franc soar as U.S. slowdown fears flare
  + stars: | 2024-08-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Swiss Franc banknotes sit in the office of a bank in this arranged photograph in Zurich, Switzerland, on Friday, Nov. 20, 2015. The safe-haven Japanese yen and Swiss franc traded near multi-month highs against the dollar on Friday after an unexpected slump in U.S. manufacturing fuelled fears of a downturn, sending stocks and bond yields tumbling. The yen traded around 0.2% stronger at 149.085 per dollar, after popping as high as 148.51 overnight for the first time since mid-March. They were the only two major currencies to outperform the dollar overnight, which itself draws safe-haven flows, paradoxically even when the United States is the cause for concern. ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras raised the risk of a weak euro zone economy sending inflation below the 2% target in an interview published on Thursday, reaffirming his expectation for two rate cuts this year.
Persons: Sterling, Tony Sycamore, Sycamore, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, ECB policymaker Yannis Stournaras Organizations: Swiss, Bank of England, European Central Bank, Japan's Nikkei, IG, Federal Reserve, ECB policymaker Locations: Zurich, Switzerland, United States, Asia, U.S
Read previewFaced with higher rates and a daunting fundraising climate, hedge funds are wooing investors with a seemingly antithetical pitch: index investing with a twist. Hedge fund industry insiders are abuzz right now about "portable alpha," a blast-from-the-past strategy that's undergoing a revival. According to the Morgan Stanley white paper, it can take on a variety of forms, including "dedicated portable alpha funds, portable alpha share classes, portable alpha feeder funds and other solutions." Advertisement"It's a nice way of smuggling hedge funds into your portfolio if you're an allocator," said Jon Caplis, CEO of hedge fund research firm PivotalPath. He said much of the industry still hasn't woken up to the appetite for portable alpha solutions and the potential boon to hedge funds.
Persons: , punchier, Kim Shaw, Morgan Stanley, There's, Shaw, Penny Novick, Morgan, Novick, Bill Gross, Myron Scholes, PIMCO's, Roark Stahler, Jon Caplis, Russell, PIMCO, Sabrina Callin, Brian Payne, Payne, Caplis, hasn't Organizations: Service, Trading, Business, Man, CME Group, BlackRock, Barclays, Russell Investments, Institutional, State, Investor, BCA Research, Teachers, Investors Locations: Winton, American, Illinois
Stock futures rose in overnight trading Wednesday as investors weighed the latest corporate earnings reports, including strong results from Meta Platforms. S&P 500 futures gained 0.4%, while Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 0.6%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 30 points, or 0.1%. In extended trading, Meta Platforms rallied 7% on stronger-than-expected second quarter results and upbeat guidance. Stocks are coming off a winning session that saw the S&P 500 rally 1.58% for its best day since February.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Chris Zaccarelli Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Meta, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Meta Platforms, Arm Holdings, Federal Reserve, Independent, Alliance, Nvidia, Devices, VanEck Semiconductor, Apple, Dow, Intel, Booking Holdings, Moderna
Fed officials use the PCE measure as their main baseline to gauge inflation, which continues to run above the central bank's 2% long-range target. An important gauge for the Federal Reserve showed inflation eased slightly from a year ago in June, helping to open the way for a widely anticipated September interest rate cut. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, showed a monthly increase of 0.2% and 2.6% on the year, both also in line with expectations. Goods prices fell 0.2% on the month, while services increased 0.2%. The report also indicated that personal income rose just 0.2%, below the 0.4% estimate.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, Fed
Improving news on inflation again has raised investors' hopes that the Federal Reserve soon will start to aggressively lower interest rates. Futures market pricing now indicates that while the Fed will remain on hold at next week's policy meeting, it will commence cutting in September and move again in November and December. The market-implied probability for a September cut nudged up to about 90% Friday morning, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool that measures fed funds futures pricing. Traders in early 2024 were pricing in at least six cuts this year, but the central bank's rate-setting group has remained on hold for a year. Following the two-day meeting that concludes next Wednesday, the Fed meeting schedule is empty for August, save for the all-important annual conclave in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, , Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Friday's Commerce Department, RSM, Traders, Federal Open, Fed Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by less than one basis point at 4.2563%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.4307% after falling by over one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Friday as investors awaited the release of key inflation data ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary policy meeting next week. Those are some of the last key economic data releases before the Fed meets next week to discuss monetary policy. The inflation figures come after economic data throughout the week have given mixed signals about the state of the economy.
Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Treasury, Federal, PCE, Fed, U.S, PMI
Watch CNBC's full interview with CME Group CEO Terry Duffy
  + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with CME Group CEO Terry DuffyTerry Duffy, CME Group CEO, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the company's quarter earnings results, competition, the presidential election, and more.
Persons: Terry Duffy Terry Duffy
CME Group CEO Terry Duffy on record quarter
  + stars: | 2024-07-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailCME Group CEO Terry Duffy on record quarterTerry Duffy, CME Group CEO, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss the company's record-hitting earnings report, his reaction to Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick's comment, and more.
Persons: Terry Duffy, Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick's
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over three basis points to 4.2077%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last less than one basis point lower to 4.5043%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Monday as investors awaited key economic data slated for the week and markets considered the latest U.S. political developments. Investors looked ahead to key data due this week that is set to provide fresh hints about the state of the economy and could inform the Federal Reserve's decision-making when it comes to monetary policy. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders were last pricing in an around 96% chance of a September rate cut.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, White, Democratic
But in general, this is the kind of development we've hoped to see ever since Starbucks' massive earnings miss April 30. We'll take the nearly 7% pop in shares Friday and hope it's only the beginning of recovery for the beaten-up stock. Fed's fave inflation measure : The personal spending and income report will be the most closely watched economic report next week. Earnings : As the second-quarter earnings season picks up pace, we'll hear from five Club holdings next week including Google parent Alphabet . Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Russell, Donald Trump, — Trump, Jim Cramer, Trump, Donald Trump's, Taiwan's TSMC, Joe Biden's, Biden, Biden's, he's, Elliott, we've, We'll, it's, we'll, Sartorius, Ford, Jim Farley, We're, Honeywell management's, , Zions, BOK, Brown, BRO, Lockheed Martin, Philip Morris, Clark, Lamb, Edwards Lifesciences, DOV, Dr Pepper, CARR, Baker Hughes, Booz Allen Hamilton, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Dow, Republican National Convention, GOP, Bloomberg Businessweek, Trump, Elliott Management, Starbucks, Street Journal, Technology, General Motors, Honeywell, Dover, Products Company, Verizon, Truist, SAP, Semiconductors, Crown Holdings, Cadence Design Systems, Medpace Holdings, AGNC Investment, Logitech International S.A, KKR Real Estate Finance Trust, Berkley Corp, Spotify Technology S.A, United Parcel Service, GE Aerospace, GE, Cola Company, Lockheed, Comcast, Polaris Industries, Philip Morris International, Company, HCA Healthcare, Moody's Corporation, Enphase Energy, Texas Instruments Incorporated, Chubb Corporation, Seagate Technology plc, Maine, Packaging Corporation of America, Weatherford International plc, Canadian National Railway Company, FTAI Aviation Ltd, Mattel, Vertiv Holdings Co, Lamb Weston Holdings, NextEra Energy, Tenet Healthcare, Fisher, GE Vernova, Boston Scientific Corporation, General Dynamics, Lennox International, Software Technologies, CME Group, Fortive Corporation, Co, Roper Technologies, Teck Resources Limited, Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Economico Mexicano S.A, Dominion Freight, Otis Worldwide Corporation, OTIS, Ford Motor Company, Grill, Business Machines, IBM, Viking Therapeutics, Las Vegas Sands Corp, Newmont, Whirlpool, Globe, WM, O'Reilly Automotive, Annaly Capital Management, Honeywell International, American Airlines Group, Hasbro, Southwest Airlines Co, New York Community Bancorp, RTX Corporation, AstraZeneca, Carrier Global Corporation, Integer Holdings Corporation, Valero Energy, Texas, Juniper Networks, Boston Beer Company, Physicians Realty Trust, Allison Transmission Holdings, Corp, Columbia Banking, Digital Realty Trust, Edison International, Myers Squibb, Charter Communications, 3M Company, Booz, Centene Corporation, AON, Barnes, Colgate, Palmolive, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, U.S Locations: U.S, Taiwan, FactSet, China, Dover, Cleveland, Alexandria, ZION, W.R, Freeport, Kimberly, Cal, Teck, Las, ORLY, New, Banc, Bristol, Milwaukee , Wisconsin
Treasury yields rise as investors weigh rate outlook
  + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by over one basis point to 4.2000%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last less than one basis point higher to 4.4706%. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Friday as investors considered the path ahead for interest rates after the latest comments from Federal Reserve officials. Investors digested remarks from Fed policymakers made throughout the week as they weighed the potential path ahead for interest rates. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also this week said that rate cuts would begin before inflation reaches the 2% target.
Persons: Mary Daly, we're, Daly, Christopher Waller, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Fed
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller on Wednesday suggested that interest rate cuts are ahead soon as long as there are no major surprises on inflation and employment. "So, while I don't believe we have reached our final destination, I do believe we are getting closer to the time when a cut in the policy rate is warranted." Keeping with statements from other policymakers, Waller's sentiments point to an unlikelihood of a rate cut when the Federal Open Market Committee meets later this month, but a stronger likelihood of a move in September. "Given that I believe the first two scenarios have the highest probability of occurring, I believe the time to lower the policy rate is drawing closer," Waller said. Williams noted that inflation data is "all moving in the right direction and doing that pretty consistently" and is "getting us closer to a disinflationary trend that we're looking for."
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, John Williams, Williams Organizations: Federal, Kansas City Fed, Market Committee, CNBC, New York Fed, Wall Street, Fed, Traders
Stocks like Shake Shack and CarMax are among several of JPMorgan's short-term investment opportunities heading into the second half of the year. Take a look at five of JPMorgan's picks below: Shake Shack made the list with an underweight rating. The stock is up 16% this year as Shake Shack expects to grow its total revenue by 11% to 15% and open 80 restaurants, bringing its total footprint to about 600 locations. Another restaurant stock, Cheesecake Factory , made the cut as a short pick, as JPMorgan expressed concerns about its near-term outlook. The stock appears "fully valued at current levels," Ivankoe added, putting an underweight rating on the company.
Persons: Dow, Nicholas Rosato, Shack, John Ivankoe, Ivankoe, Kenneth Worthington, Worthington Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, JPMorgan, Cheesecake, FactSet, Group Locations: Chicago
Treasury yields fall as investors digest Powell comments
  + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down by over three basis points to 4.1983%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last more than one basis point lower to 4.4404%. U.S. Treasury yields were lower on Tuesday as investors weighed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on the outlook for the economy and interest rates. On Monday, Powell said the central bank will not wait until inflation has reached its 2% target rate before cutting interest rates. Powell, however, said the Fed is still looking for "greater confidence" that inflation will return to 2%.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Traders
IMF sees ‘bumps’ in path to lower inflation
  + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that upside risks to inflation have increased, calling into question the prospect of multiple Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF said "the momentum on global disinflation is slowing, signaling bumps along the path." The rise in sequential inflation in the U.S. earlier in 2024 has put it behind other major economies in the quantitative easing path, the report said. However, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" on Tuesday that one rate cut from the Fed is most appropriate this year, highlighting still-stubborn services and wage inflation as complications to the path to lower inflation. Despite the encouraging CPI report, Gourinchas stated the uptick in inflation earlier in the year indicates that the path toward lower inflation and rate cuts "could take a little bit longer than maybe the markets are expecting."
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, CNBC's, Gourinchas Organizations: Monetary Fund, Traders, U.S . Labor Department Locations: U.S
Gold climbs as traders brace for U.S. inflation data
  + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices firmed for a third consecutive session on Thursday, with investors awaiting U.S. inflation data due later in the day for more insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Gold prices firmed for a third consecutive session on Thursday, with investors awaiting U.S. inflation data due later in the day for more insights on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Any downside surprise in the CPI report could weaken the dollar and push up gold prices to the $2,400 level, said Marex analyst Edward Meir. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the U.S. central bank would make interest rate decisions "when and as" they were needed. Spot silver climbed 0.7% to $31.04 per ounce, platinum firmed 0.4% to $993.25 and palladium gained 0.7% to $992.90.
Persons: Edward Meir ., Lisa Cook, Meir, Jerome Powell, Wang Tao Organizations: Index, Traders Locations: U.S
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by nearly one basis point to 4.2880%. The 2-year Treasury yield was nearly flat at 4.6304%. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Thursday as investors looked ahead to fresh inflation data and considered remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Investors awaited fresh inflation insights that could provide hints about the path ahead for interest rates. The central bank has said it would not cut interest rates until data shows that inflation is sustainably easing toward this target.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Dow Jones, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal, Investors, CPI, Financial
Gold rangebound with spotlight on U.S. inflation reading
  + stars: | 2024-07-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold traded in a narrow price range on Wednesday as investors looked forward to a key U.S. inflation reading that could shed more light on the Federal Reserve's interest rates trajectory. Gold traded in a narrow price range on Wednesday as investors looked forward to a key U.S. inflation reading that could shed more light on the Federal Reserve's interest rates trajectory. Spot gold rose 0.2% to $2,367.79 per ounce by 0229 GMT. Non-yielding bullion's appeal tends to shine when interest rates are lower. That may weigh on gold, which could see prices fall back towards the $2,300 level of support," Yeap said.
Persons: Gold, Jerome Powell, Powell, Yeap Jun Rong, Yeap Organizations: Traders, Global, Gold Locations: U.S, Europe, Asia
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by over 2 basis points at 4.289%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.628% after rising by more than 1 basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Tuesday as investors looked ahead to economic data and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Investors awaited key data points slated for the week ahead, including fresh consumer and wholesale inflation figures. Several other Fed officials are also set to give remarks throughout the week and could provide more insights.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, Federal, Investors, Federal Reserve, Banking, Financial Services Committee
Those dividends may begin to look more attractive to investors as the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates. UBS compiled a list of global, high-quality dividend stocks using its quantitative models, as well as its fundamental analysts. "Throughout the process, we emphasise the stability and growth potential of dividend streams, as opposed to the current yield," analyst Claire Jones said. Investors can grab a 2.69% dividend yield with Home Depot . The oil giant boasts a 3.35% dividend yield and is up more than 11% so far this year.
Persons: What's, Claire Jones, Richard McPhail, Giovanni Staunovo, Brent, Jonathan Woloshin, Sempra, Jeffrey Martin, CNBC's Jim Cramer, Melissa Repko, Spencer Kimball Organizations: UBS, Federal Reserve, Depot, CNBC, Exxon Mobil, Exxon, Pioneer Natural Resources, CME Group, JPMorgan, Group, Utilities Locations: Saudi, Aramco
The euro slipped on Monday after projections from France's election pointed to a hung parliament amid an unexpectedly strong showing for a left-wing alliance, spawning fresh uncertainty over the country's fiscal outlook. The euro slipped on Monday after projections from France's election pointed to a hung parliament amid an unexpectedly strong showing for a left-wing alliance, spawning fresh uncertainty over the country's fiscal outlook. The yen headed for a third day of gains after rebounding from last week's nearly 38-year trough to the dollar. The euro was 0.06% lower at $1.0827, and earlier slid as much as 0.4% as investors weighed the consequences of a hung French parliament. The dollar slipped 0.07% to 160.70 yen, down from as high as 161.96 on Wednesday.
Persons: Sterling, Emmanuel Macron's, Chris Weston, Macron, Weston, bitcoin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labour, Conservative, New Popular Front, Le, Traders Locations: Gox
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