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Stock futures were flat in overnight trading Monday as investors awaited key corporate earnings and the beginning of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both traded 0.1% higher. That compares to a five-year average earnings beat rate of 77%. "Both 2024 and 2025 consensus EPS are holding up, with 2024 EPS tracking a typical non-recessionary year revision trend. "Inflation is trending lower, supporting Federal Reserve rate cuts," said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.
Persons: Savita Subramanian, Jerome Powell, Seema Shah Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Merck, Pfizer, PayPal, Procter, Gamble, JetBlue, Microsoft, Devices, Bank of, Fed, Asset Management
It's also looking increasingly likely that mortgage rates will drop even further in the coming months. As inflation continues to slow and the Fed is able to start lowering the federal funds rate, mortgage rates should trend down. This will remove some of the upward pressure off of mortgage rates and allow them to fall a bit. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. Mortgage Rates for Buying a Home30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Inch Up (+0.08%)The current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.38%, up eight basis points from where it was this time last week, according to Zillow data.
Persons: It's, you'll, refinance, they've Organizations: Commerce Department, Federal, Zillow, FHA Locations: Chevron
Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks rose Friday morning, regaining momentum after three days of losses. Instead, investors indicated 87.7% odds of a 25-basis point cut, and 11.9% odds of a 50-basis point cut. This week, creeping doubt in large-cap tech stocks rally spurred investors to rotate out of the sector, pulling both indexes down 3.67% and 2.6% through the past week, respectively.
Persons: , Fitch, Olu Sonola Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, PCE, Federal, Treasury Locations: Here's
The Federal Reserve will wait until December to cut interest rates, Bank of America economists say. The forecast runs counter to consensus, with 90% of investors expecting a first cut in September. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementIn a Thursday research note, Bank of America reiterated its prediction for rate cuts to begin in December, even with a majority of investors expecting one in September. Meanwhile, 90% of investors expect a cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Persons: BofA, Organizations: Federal, Bank of America, Service, Business
Encouraging inflation data stoked optimism that the Federal Reserve can cut interest rates in September. That changed Friday, as encouraging inflation data injected new life into the rally. Advertisement"Next week we expect [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell to set the table for future rate cuts, speaking confidently about progress bringing inflation down. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market no longer expects the Federal Reserve to keep rates steady in September. The market also forecasts high chances that the Fed will slash rates by up to 75 basis points through December.
Persons: Russell, , Jerome, Powell, David Donabedian, Chris Zaccarelli, Dexcom Organizations: Federal, Service, PCE, CIBC Private Wealth, Reserve, Independent, Alliance Locations: Here's,
The stock market is gearing up for its rate cut era
  + stars: | 2024-07-26 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
Data Thursday showed the economy expanded at a robust 2.8% annualized rate during the second quarter, blowing past economists’ expectations. While the Fed has penciled in just one rate cut for this year, traders are betting on up to three, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. While the market was broadly higher on Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Wednesday logged their worst daily performances since 2022. Shares of smaller companies tend to perform poorly when rates are high, since they have more floating rate debt than their larger counterparts. Investors are also picking at other areas of the market poised to gain when rates come down.
Persons: , Dow, Russell, Stephen Lee Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Big Tech, Nasdaq, MRB Partners, YouTube, Logan Capital Locations: New York
Bread Financial , once home of the 5.25% yield on a 1-year certificate of deposit, has dialed back its rate. The financial institution recently dialed back its annual percentage yield for its 1-year CD to 5.15%. See below for current APYs on select high-yielding 1-year CDs. Popular Direct has a 1-year CD with an APY of 5.2%, while Goldman Sachs ' Marcus and Sallie Mae still offer APY of 5.15% on their instruments. BMO Alto's 1-year CD weighs in at an APY of 5.05%.
Persons: Vincent Caintic, Banks, Goldman Sachs, Marcus, Sallie Mae Organizations: Federal, BMO
On Friday, the tech-heavy S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended the week with losses, down 0.8% and 2.1%, respectively. However, the bulk of Magnificent Seven results is set for release in the week ahead. As it is, all seven of the Magnificent Seven companies closed out the week with losses. FOMC meeting, July jobs report Elsewhere, investors will also be reviewing the latest Federal Reserve interest rate decision set for release on Wednesday. Traders will also get insight into the labor market next week, with the release of the July jobs report on Friday.
Persons: Russell, Ryan Grabinski, John Belton, Tesla, Belton, FactSet, Stanley Black, Decker, Lam, Kraft Heinz, Ingersoll Rand Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Microsoft, Facebook, Apple, Nvidia, 2H, 3Q, Gabelli, Traders, Dallas Fed, Semiconductor, Nation Entertainment, Electronic Arts, Starbucks, Match Group, Caesars Entertainment, Corning, Howmet Aerospace, Procter, Gamble, Pfizer, Merck, Co, PayPal, ADP, Civilian Workers, Chicago PMI, MGM Resorts International, Allstate, Lam Research, eBay, Qualcomm, Western, Cruise Line Holdings, Hess, Boeing, Mobile, Marriott International, GE Healthcare Technologies, Generac Holdings, Mastercard, Labor, PMI, Manufacturing, Intel, Holdings, Motorola Solutions, Technology, Air Products, Chemicals, Jobs, Exxon Mobil, Chevron Locations: Chicago, Albemarle, Kellanova, Hershey, Moderna
Meanwhile, many investors are sitting on hefty cash allocations, including trillions in money market funds, which are generally still paying above 5%. How to tellAfter a series of rate hikes, investors piled into money market funds, which typically invest in shorter-term, lower-credit-risk debt, such as Treasury bills. Total U.S. money market funds hovered near a record of $6.15 trillion as of July 17, with $2.48 trillion in funds for retail investors, according to Investment Company Institute data. However, money market fund yields will likely fall if the Fed starts cutting rates in September, explained Ken Tumin, founder and editor of DepositAccounts. "Most [money market funds] seem to closely follow the federal funds rate," he said.
Persons: Ken Tumin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Finance, Social, Total U.S, Investment Company Institute
"Although it might already be too late to fend off a recession by cutting rates, dawdling now unnecessarily increases the risk," the former New York Federal Reserve President said. But to Dudley, even this is too late, and central bankers would do better to pivot rates at next week's policy meeting. AdvertisementAccording to Dudley, this slowdown points to fewer jobs down the road, and an uptick in unemployment could set off a near-certain recession indicator: the Sahm Rule. Despite this, Dudley suggested that the Fed might not be as concerned about breaching the Sahm Rule as it should be. According to Dudley, there are two other reasons the Fed may be waiting for September to cut rates.
Persons: , Bill Dudley, dawdling, Dudley, Jerome Powell, Claudia Sahm, I'm Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, New York Federal, Business, Fed Locations: Dudley
US stocks gave back gains to trade mixed on Thursday amid more tech weakness. GDP grew 2.8% in the second quarter, according to advanced estimates from the Commerce Department, well-above the 2.1% growth economists had expected. PCE inflation rose 2.6%, down from the prior reading of 3.7%. Mega-cap tech stocks continued to slide after Tesla and Alphabet delivered disappointing results for the second quarter. Alphabet was down for a second day, dropping another 3% on Thursday.
Persons: , Neil Dutta Organizations: PCE, Service, Dow Jones, Treasury, Commerce Department, Fed, Macro, Meta, Microsoft, Here's
Second-quarter GDP data showed the economy grew at 2.8% in the second quarter, much more than expected. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Traders were assessing tech weakness and hotter-than-expected GDP data for the second quarter. Investors' top concern is slowing tech earnings growth after Tesla and Alphabet both reported disappointing results on Tuesday. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the opening bell on Thursday:AdvertisementMeanwhile, investors are digesting second-quarter GDP data, which showed the US economy grew by 2.8%.
Persons: Stocks, , Mike Owens, Dan Ives, Chris Zaccarelli, Brent Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, Traders, Investors, Federal Reserve, Saxo, Microsoft, Google, Apple, Securities, West Texas Locations: China, Here's
Every weekday, the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer releases the Homestretch — an actionable afternoon update, just in time for the last hour of trading on Wall Street. Those are our only "own, don't trade" stocks, and they may hold the key to the rest of tech. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, it's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Apple, Nvidia, Club, Broadcom, AMD, Juniper Networks, Digital Realty Trust, Boston Beer, Bristol, Myers, Charter Communications, Colgate, Fed, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: Dexcom, Sketchers, Texas
The Fed will only cut interest rates 25 basis-points this year, Vanguard predicted. Central bankers will be held back by high shelter costs and a strong job market, the firm said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates just once this year, as housing costs are too high and the job market is still too hot, Vanguard said. That's a lot less than more ambitious rate cut scenarios see for the rest of this year, with investors expecting as many as three rate cuts by December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Persons: Organizations: Vanguard, Service, Business
The worst may be over for homebuyers
  + stars: | 2024-07-23 | by ( Samantha Delouya | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
But there are now signs that maybe, just maybe, the worst could be over for homebuyers. “June, in particular, has started to show the housing market slowing down in favor of buyers,” said Skylar Olsen, Zillow’s chief economist. While the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, its actions do influence borrowing costs throughout the economy. For the past two years, potential homebuyers have faced a double whammy of high prices and high mortgage rates. “We’re sitting today at probably, if not the worst affordability ever, really close to the worst affordability ever — so we almost have nowhere to go but up,” Sharga said.
Persons: , Skylar Olsen, Green, Rick Sharga, CJ Patrick Company, “ We’re, ” Sharga, , ” Olsen, “ That’s, Sharga, Leslie Heindel, ” Heindel Organizations: CNN, homebuyers, Federal Reserve, Fed, Reserve, CJ, Homes, Wall Street Locations: New Orleans
When the Federal Reserve adjusts the federal funds rate, the decision affects banking products. It holds eight meetings annually, and one of the primary topics discussed is the federal funds rate. As a consumer, you'll see that changes to the federal funds rate impact banking products. The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate several times in 2023 to combat inflation, which is why savings rates are still competitive in mid-2024. If the Fed raises interest rates, interest rates on banking products will likely be impacted.
Persons: aren't, Jerome Powell, Banks, it's Organizations: Fed, Federal Reserve, Market, Governors, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bank, Reserve Bank, Market Committee, Chevron
Safe-haven gold firms as Biden move sparks market uncertainty
  + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A one kilogram gold bar sits on top of silver bars at London bullion dealers Gold Investments in London, United Kingdom, on April 4, 2013. Gold prices firmed on Monday as the dollar eased following U.S. President Joe Biden's decision to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race, with investors turning to bullion as a hedge against an uncertain political and market outlook. Spot gold rose 0.2% at $2,405.40 per ounce, as of 0510 GMT, while U.S. gold futures gained 0.3% to $2,407.20. The prospect of rate cuts and political uncertainty in the United States are supporting gold prices, and conditions are in place for gold to see another record high before the end of 2024, said Kyle Rodda, a financial market analyst at Capital.com. Among other metals, spot silver fell 0.5% to $29.11 per ounce, platinum slipped 0.3% to $959.99, while palladium rose 1.1% to $916.18.
Persons: Joe Biden's, Kyle Rodda, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Trump, Gold, Rodda Organizations: London, Investments, Republican, U.S Locations: London, United Kingdom, United States, U.S, China
Understanding the Federal Reserve's role in mortgage ratesThe Federal Reserve's actions are a big influencer in where mortgage rates head. In the time since the Fed began raising rates, mortgage rates have climbed steadily. The Fed's impact on mortgage rates FAQsHow does the Federal Reserve affect mortgage rates? The Federal Reserve influences mortgage rates by setting the federal funds rate, which impacts borrowing costs, investor activity, and market conditions. When the Fed raises interest rates, mortgage rates often increase as well, making borrowing more expensive.
Persons: Michael Gifford, Fannie Mae's Organizations: Federal, Federal Reserve, Fed, Treasury, it's, Mortgage Bankers Association, Reserve, Chevron Locations: lockstep
Mortgage rates have been trending down this month, and they could fall further throughout the remainder of 2024. This should remove some of the upward pressure off of mortgage rates and allow them to decrease. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates fell to 6.05% last week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates increased dramatically over the last two years, but they're expected to go down at some point this year.
Persons: you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Federal, Zillow, Federal Reserve Locations: Chevron
While mortgage rates are most closely linked to 10-year Treasury bonds, they tend to move in tandem with the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate. Consequently, a rate cut is likely to lower mortgage rates later this year. That's potentially good news for homebuyers, since interest rate cuts would likely make monthly mortgage payments a bit more affordable. Most major housing organizations expect mortgage rates to drop by the end of the year. Mortgage rate forecasts for the end of 2024 differ slightly.
Persons: Fannie Mae, Wells, Kevin McLoughlin Organizations: Federal, Traders, Mortgage, Association ., Federal Reserve Locations: Virginia
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was trading around 4.1672% at 2:20 a.m. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was also 2 basis points higher at 4.4524%. U.S. Treasury yields moved higher on Thursday as investors digested a range of comments by Federal Reserve officials and what they could mean for interest rates. It comes as traders increasingly bet on a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a reduction in July now seen as highly unlikely. Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said interest rates would likely be cut before inflation reaches 2%.
Persons: Christopher Waller, John Williams, Thomas Barkin, Jerome Powell, you've, Powell, Dow Jones, , Jeff Cox Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Federal, York Fed, Wall Street Journal, Richmond Fed, Deutsche Bank, Economic, of Washington D.C
Weekly jobless claims were higher than expected, boosting rate cut hopes. AdvertisementThe stock market was looking to stage a rebound after a plummet in semiconductor stocks led to a losing session on Wednesday. The chip cohort's tumble came amid reports that the Biden administration would levy fresh restrictions on chip sales to China. The latest jobless claims gave investors new reason to bet on interest rate cuts, as Thursday's report showed claims rose to their highest level in close to a year. Initial jobless claims rose to 243,000 through the week ending July 13, above estimates for 229,000.
Persons: Stocks, , Biden, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Service, Financial, Labor Locations: China
Mortgage rates are down this week, with 30-year mortgage rates averaging around 6.30%, according to Zillow data. This should remove some of the upward pressure off of mortgage rates and allow them to trend down. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. Now that the Fed has paused hiking rates, mortgage rates have come down a bit. Once the Fed starts cutting rates, which may happen this year, mortgage rates should fall even further.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Freddie Mac Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Fed, Zillow, Federal Reserve Locations: Chevron
Gold eases after hitting fresh record
  + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | In Ying-Shan-Lee | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
One kilogram gold bullion at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold prices extended their rise to a fresh all-time high on Wednesday, as growing optimism for an interest-rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve in September and a weaker dollar boosted demand. Spot gold eased about 0.2% to $2,462.85 per ounce, driven by profit-taking, after the bullion hit a high of $2,482.29 earlier in the session. Markets now see a 98% chance of a U.S. rate cut in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and weigh on the dollar, making gold cheaper for investors holding other currencies.
Persons: David Meger, Christopher Waller Organizations: Co, U.S . Federal Reserve, High, Fed Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, U.S
At the end of July, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce its next decision on interest rates. Some economists have recently been pointing to similar concerns with the Fed keeping interest rates high. As Sahm pointed out, it would take time for reduced interest rates to "flow through to the economy." "You want to begin a process of taking the pressure off of the economy," Sahm said. AdvertisementZandi said interest rates on credit cards and Buy Now, Pay Later rates could come down, along with a decline in auto lending rates and mortgage rates.
Persons: , Mark Zandi, Jerome Powell, Powell, Claudia Sahm, it's, Sahm, Sen, Elizabeth Warren, Brian Rose, Rose, Zandi, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Service, Moody's, Business, Federal, CME FedWatch, Fed, Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs, Sahm Consulting, Federal Reserve, Democratic, UBS, Chicago Federal, Wall Street Journal
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