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☆ Dollar hovers near 2-1/2-month lows, easing pressure on yen
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Japanese yen and U.S. dollar on display in Yichang, Hubei province, Nov 13, 2023. The dollar index held around 2-1/2-month lows after minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting did little to dislodge market expectations that its monetary tightening cycle was over. Treasury yields slipped again overnight to hover around 4.40%, easing further pressure on the yen. The Japanese yen advanced around 0.1% versus the greenback to 148.28, clinging to recent gains after ticking up slightly from as low as 147.155 overnight. While speculation that the Bank of Japan could exit from negative interest rates early next year should help stabilize the yen, the Japanese currency still faces strong headwinds.

Persons: Matt Simpson, CME's, Sterling, Simpson, Tony Sycamore Organizations: U.S, Index, Treasury, Bank of Japan, IG Locations: Yichang, Hubei province, U.S

☆ Dollar extends fall ahead of Fed minutes, yen strengthens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The dollar index fell for a third straight session on Tuesday ahead of minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting as expectations grow the central bank will start to cut rates in the early portion of next year. Bregar noted, however, the downward move in the greenback may be starting to run out of steam and big option expirations in the eurodollar and yen could stabilize the dollar. The dollar index fell 0.13% to 103.31 after falling to a fresh 2-1/2 month low of 103.17, its lowest since Aug. 31. The weakness in the dollar has buoyed the yen, along with expectations the Bank of Japan may eventually start to move off its ultra-loose monetary policy next year. The yen strengthened 0.42% versus the greenback to 147.76 per dollar after the greenback hit its lowest level since mid-September at 147.14 yen, while sterling was last trading at $1.254, up 0.29% on the day.

Persons: CME's, Erik Bregar, It's, it's, Bregar, Chuck Mikolajczak, Nick Macfie Organizations: U.S, U.S . Federal, Bull, Bank of Japan, greenback, Thomson Locations: U.S ., Toronto

☆ S&P 500 to see small gain in 2024 as US economic risks rise - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 is up about 18% for 2023 to date. WFII sees the S&P 500 ending next year between 4,600 and 4,800. Geopolitical problems are among other risks to the market heading into 2024, strategists said, with investors closely watching the war between Israel and Hamas militants in Gaza. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth for 2023 is estimated at 2.3% after a weak first half of the year, according to LSEG data. The S&P 500 index's forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio is now at 19.1, up from 17 at the end of 2022 and its long-term average of about 16, based on LSEG data.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Paul Christopher, WFII, CME's, Goldman, Tim Ghriskey, Ingalls & Snyder, Dow, Caroline Valetkevitch, Chuck Mikolajczak, Sinead Carew, Stephen Culp, Pranoy Krishna, Rahul Trivedi, Sarupya Ganguly, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reuters, Wall, Federal, Wells, Wells Fargo Investment Institute, U.S, Ingalls &, Dow, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Wells Fargo, Israel, Gaza, New York, Monday's, Bengaluru

☆ Gold rises on dollar weakness as focus turns to Fed minutes
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-21 | by ( Brijesh Patel | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar languished near more than a 2-1/2-month low as investors expect U.S. interest rates to fall next year. A weaker dollar makes gold less expensive for other currency holders. Signs of slowing inflation in the United States has boosted expectations that the U.S. central bank was done raising interest rates. Lower interest rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding gold. Inflation is likely to remain "stubborn" and force the Fed to keep interest rates elevated for longer than investors anticipate, Richmond Fed president Thomas Barkin said.

Persons: Alexander Manzyuk, Edward Meir, CME's, Jerome Powell, It's, Meir, Thomas Barkin, Brijesh Patel, Sherry Jacob, Phillips Organizations: REUTERS, Treasury, Federal, Benchmark, Richmond Fed, Thomson Locations: Novosibirsk, Siberian, Russia, U.S, United States, Bengaluru

☆ Dollar falls to 2-1/2 month low on Fed expectations, yen strengthens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Markets have priced out any additional Fed rate hikes, as recent data has shown a slowing of the economy and inflation pressures - but not enough to increase fears a sharp recession is looming. "The market is convinced, both credit, equities and currencies that the Fed has finished raising rates, but the Fed is not willing to say so. "So you're getting a gradual weakening in the dollar, simply because the Fed is doing its best to prop up rates, not necessarily the dollar, but to prop up rates." Against the yen the dollar was last traded at 148.36 yen , down 0.84%.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, we've, Joseph Trevisani, Thomas Barkin, Moody's, Sterling, Chuck Mikolajczak, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Conference, Fed, Richmond Federal, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Dollar falls to two-month low on Fed view, yen strengthens
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. Dollar and Euro banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. Markets have priced out any additional Fed rate hikes, as recent data has showed a slowing of the economy and inflation pressures - but not enough to increase fears a sharp recession is looming. "The market is convinced, both credit, equities and currencies that the Fed has finished raising rates, but the Fed is not willing to say so. "So you're getting a gradual weakening in the dollar, simply because the Fed is doing its best to prop up rates, not necessarily the dollar, but to prop up rates." Against the yen the dollar was traded at 148.40 yen , down 0.81%.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, CME's, we've, Joseph Trevisani, Thomas Barkin, Moody's, Sterling, Chuck Mikolajczak, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Conference, Fed, Reserve Bank of Richmond, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Consumers in focus as Walmart reports
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya Ranganathan. Thursday's corporate calendar features a host of earnings reports that will shine further light on the health of the global consumer, as U.S. retailers Walmart (WMT.N), Bath & Body Works and Macy's (M.N) report earnings. Expectations for Walmart ride high after peer Target (TGT.N) surged by almost a fifth on Wednesday in the wake of its consensus-beating holiday sales forecast and upbeat view of its supply chain. Figures on Wednesday showed U.S. producer prices fell at their fastest pace since April 2020, and UK consumer inflation undershot all forecasts. Reuters GraphicsMeanwhile in Asia, Japan's exports are struggling due to slumping China-bound shipments of chips and steel.

Persons: Vidya Ranganathan, Eddie Wu, Christine Lagarde, Jerome Powell, What's, Joe Biden, Xi Jinping, England's Randall Kroszner, ECB's Christine Lagarde, Luis de Guindos, Fed's Loretta Mester, John Williams, Michael Barr, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Vidya, Walmart, Body, Insider Intelligence, U.S, Bank, Events, Applied Materials, Siemens, SQM, Thomson Locations: U.S, Asia, China, San Francisco, Bath, France

Powell's remarks on Thursday that the fight to restore price stability "had a long way to go" at first roiled markets. "If we were to get a low CPI next week, yields can come down around that number and we may get some weakening in the dollar." MSCI's gauge of global equity performance (.MIWD00000PUS) gained 0.54%, while stocks on Wall Street surged 1% or more. U.S. Treasury yields rose sharply on Thursday after a very weak 30-year bond auction. U.S. crude rose $1.43 to settle at $77.17 a barrel, while Brent settled up $1.42 at $81.43 a barrel.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Jerome Powell, Michael James, Thierry Wizman, Wizman, Mullarkey, Tapas Strickland, Brent, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasignhe, Tomasz Janowski, Richard Chang Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Wall, Federal, Wedbush Securities, Fed, FX, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, U.S, Treasury, SLC Management, Reuters, NAB, New, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Los Angeles, Macquarie, New York, Europe, Boston, China, Beijing, New Zealand, London

"If we were to get a low CPI next week, yields can come down around that number and we may get some weakening in the dollar," Wizman said. The two-year Treasury yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, fell 0.2 basis points to 5.020%, while the benchmark 10-year yield was down 3.2 basis points at 4.598%. Traders would be keeping a close watch on interest rate volatility, said Schneller, noting major market fluctuations recently. "A primary cause for this volatility is the debate over whether the current Fed funds rate is overly high or insufficient." In currency markets, the dollar index rose 0.019% to 105.91, with the euro up 0.04% to $1.067.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Powell, Jerome Powell, Thierry Wizman, Wizman, Powell's, Bruno Schneller, Schneller, Tapas Strickland, Brent, Nell Mackenzie, Dhara Ranasignhe, Tomasz Janowski, Richard Chang Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Global, International Monetary Fund, Fed, FX, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, INVICO Asset Management, Reuters Graphics U.S, NAB, New, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Macquarie, New York, China, Beijing, New Zealand, London

☆ Asia stocks slide as Powell comments quell rate peak bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The sombre mood is set to continue as Europe wakes up, with futures indicating a steeply lower open. Eurostoxx 50 futures were down 0.73%, German DAX futures dropped 0.66% and FTSE futures were 0.78% lower. The Fed is "committed to ... monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2% over time," Powell said at an International Monetary Fund event. U.S. rate futures have priced in about 60% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's June 2024 meeting, according to the CME's FedWatch tool, compared to odds of about 70% before Powell's speech. The oil market has been reeling this week on demand concerns, with a fading war-risk premium triggering a sell-off.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Powell, Jerome Powell, DAX, Rob Carnell, Powell's, ING's Carnell, there's, Hong, Tapas Strickland, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Tom Hogue Organizations: Tokyo Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Fed, . Federal, International Monetary Fund, ING, Investors, Reuters, Nasdaq, NAB, New, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, EUROPE, SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Europe, Beijing, New Zealand, Singapore

☆ Morning Bid: 'Not confident' Powell drags markets lower
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Since the Fed left rates unchanged last week, markets had increasingly grown confident that the peak in U.S. rates was in sight. But up stepped Powell to squash any hopes of an impending rate cut. "[The Fed] is committed to achieving a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2% over time," Powell said. That led stocks lower, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) skidding 1% to their lowest in a week. The rise in yields boosted the dollar, which is headed for its best week against the yen in three months.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Ankur Banerjee, Powell, Christine Lagarde, Walt Disney, policymaker Joachim Nagel, SNB's Thomas Moser, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Monetary Fund's, REUTERS, Ankur, European bourses, Treasury, Industrial, Commercial Bank of China's, U.S . Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Asia, Pacific, Japan, European, U.S, Commercial Bank of China's U.S, Norway, Sweden

☆ Falling Treasury yields could turn Fed hawkish if financial conditions ease
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Nov 9 (Reuters) - Falling Treasury yields helped launch an explosive rebound in stocks and lifted U.S. government bonds from 16-year lows. Evidence of the dynamic between yields and financial conditions could be seen in last week’s 0.5% decline in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, its sixth biggest weekly drop since 1990. Policymakers have largely refrained from verbally pushing back on the easing in financial conditions during a flurry of appearances by policymakers this week. Analysts at TD Securities, however, believe further easing in Treasury yields will eventually become a "double-edged sword." To be sure, not every scenario sees the Fed in a higher-for-longer posture if Treasury yields continue falling.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Brian Jacobsen, Jacobsen, CME's, Sameer Samana, David Randall, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Ira Iosebashvili, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Goldman, Treasury, Annex Wealth Management, Reuters Graphics, International Monetary Fund, TD Securities, Fed, Wells, Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, United States, China, Samana, U.S

☆ S&P 500, Nasdaq score longest win streak in 2 years on rates view
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Fellow Governor Michelle Bowman said she took the recent Gross Domestic Product number as evidence the economy not only "remained strong," but might have gained speed and requires a higher Fed policy rate. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 56.94 points, or 0.17%, to 34,152.8; the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 12.40 points, or 0.28 %, at 4,378.38 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 121.08 points, or 0.90 %, at 13,639.86. The S&P 500 (.SPX) scored its seventh straight day in the green, with the Nasdaq (.IXIC) recording its eighth straight advance, the longest such streak for each index in two years. The Dow gained for a seventh straight session, its longest since a 13-session run in July. The S&P 500 posted 15 new 52-week highs and three new lows while the Nasdaq recorded 48 new highs and 145 new lows.

Persons: CME's, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Powell, Ken Polcari, Brendan McDermid, Dow, Lorie Logan, Chuck Mikolajczak, Richard Chang Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, Kace Capital Advisors, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Apple, Dow Jones, . Energy, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Uber Technologies, NYSE, Thomson Locations: U.S, Boca Raton , Florida, New York City

☆ Wall St extends winning streak; eyes Fed speakers, Treasury auctions
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Expectations the Fed was likely done with rate hikes sent the S&P 500 up 5.85% last week and the Nasdaq up 6.61%, their biggest weekly jumps since November 2022. The session marks the sixth straight advance for the Dow and S&P 500 and seventh straight gain for the Nasdaq. The streak is the longest for the S&P 500 since early June, since July for the Dow and since January for the Nasdaq. A total of 403 companies in the S&P 500 have reported profits through Friday the third quarter, with 81.6% surpassing analyst estimates, per LSEG data. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and no new lows while the Nasdaq recorded 46 new highs and 113 new lows.

Persons: Bumble, CME's, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Stephen Massocca, Brendan McDermid, Walt Disney, Erik Carlson, Whitney Wolfe, Chuck Mikolajczak, Richard Chang Organizations: Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Wedbush Securities, Nasdaq, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow Jones, Dow, University of, Dish Network, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New, San Francisco, New York City, U.S

☆ Wall St flat after rally as Fed speakers, Treasury auctions eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-06 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. Markets will look for more clarity on the Fed's intentions from officials speaking later in the week, including Chair Jerome Powell, and voting members such as New York Fed chief John Williams and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan. Expectations the Fed was likely done with rate hikes sent the S&P 500 up 5.85% last week and the Nasdaq up 6.61%, their biggest weekly jumps since November 2022. A total of 403 companies in the S&P 500 have reported profits through Friday the third quarter, with 81.6% surpassing analyst estimates, per LSEG data. The S&P 500 posted nine new 52-week highs and no new lows while the Nasdaq recorded 43 new highs and 99 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, CME's, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Stephen Massocca, Walt Disney, Erik Carlson, Whitney Wolfe, Chuck Mikolajczak, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Wedbush Securities, University of, Dow Jones, Dish Network, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, New, San Francisco

☆ US dollar drops to six-week low after softer-than-expected jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-03 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/4] U.S. one dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. The index was on track for its largest one-day fall since July. The numbers for September were revised lower to show 297,000 jobs created instead of 336,000 as previously reported. Against the yen, the dollar slid 0.6% to 149.53 yen , capping a whirlwind week, in which the Japanese currency touched a one-year low against the dollar and 15-year trough against the euro. Sterling rose 1.1% versus the dollar to $1.2327, after earlier hitting a six-week high of $1.2350.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Brad McMillan, Kazuo Ueda, Sterling, Jerome Powell, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Chibuike Oguh, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Christina Fincher, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Sterling, Federal Reserve, Commonwealth Financial Network, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Treasury, U.S . Treasury Department, Thomson Locations: Waltham , Massachusetts, U.S, New York, London, Singapore

An aerial view shows an oil factory of Idemitsu Kosan Co. in Ichihara, east of Tokyo, Japan November 12, 2021, in this photo taken by Kyodo. Brent January crude futures rose 0.3%, or 28 cents, to $85.30 a barrel by 0330 GMT, after falling more than 1% on Tuesday. Brent December futures settled 4 cents lower at $87.41 a barrel at the contract's expiry on Tuesday. Interest rate hikes aimed at taming inflation can slow economic growth and reduce oil demand, while rate cuts to spur spending could increase oil consumption. The Fed, which will end its meeting on Wednesday, is expected to hold rates steady, according to a poll by CME's Fedwatch tool.

Persons: Brent, Edward Moya, CME's, Goldman Sachs, Antony Blinken, Mohi Narayan, Emily Chow, Jamie Freed Organizations: Kyodo, U.S . Federal Reserve, . West Texas, Treasury, Federal, Market, American Petroleum Institute, Central Bank, Bank of England, Israel, Thomson Locations: Idemitsu, Ichihara, Tokyo, Japan, DELHI, Israel, ., U.S, Europe, China, East, Gaza, New Delhi, Singapore

☆ Oil gains ahead of Fed meeting as Middle East conflict persists
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Oil prices edged up in early Asian trade on Wednesday ahead of key global central bank meetings this week including the U.S. Federal Reserve, as the market also closely watches the latest developments in the Israel-Hamas conflict. Brent January crude futures rose 36 cents, or 0.4%, to $85.38 a barrel by 0040 GMT, after falling $1.33 on Tuesday. Brent December futures settled 4 cents lower at $87.41 a barrel at the contract's expiry on Tuesday. Interest rate hikes aimed at taming inflation can slow economic growth and reduce oil demand, while rate cuts to spur spending could increase oil consumption. The Fed, which will end its meeting on Wednesday, is expected to hold rates steady, according to a poll by CME's Fedwatch tool.

Persons: Brent, Edward Moya, CME's, Goldman Sachs, Antony Blinken Organizations: Raffles, U.S . Federal Reserve, . West Texas, Treasury, Federal, Market, American Petroleum Institute, Central Bank, Bank of England, Israel Locations: Yantai, East China's Shandong province, Israel, ., Europe, East, Gaza, U.S

December Brent crude futures , set to expire on Tuesday, rose 36 cents, or 0.41%, to stand at $87.81 a barrel by 0305 GMT. "If this evolves into a full-scale invasion and there is involvement from Iran, tighter supply worries could resurface." In a note, ING analysts said, "Disruptions to Iranian oil flows remain the most obvious risk to the market." Such lost supply could range between 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 1 million bpd if the United States strictly enforces sanctions once again, they added, although Middle East developments had yet to affect oil supply. Weaker-than-expected manufacturing and non-manufacturing activity data from China stoked fears of slowing fuel demand from the world's No.

Persons: Eric Gaillard, Brent, Leon Li, China stoked, CME's, Laura Sanicola, Trixie Yap, Clarence Fernandez Organizations: REUTERS, . West Texas, Federal Reserve, Markets, ING, U.S, Thomson Locations: Nice, France, China, Wednesday's U.S, Gaza, Iran, Shanghai, Israel, United States, Venezuela, riven

☆ Investors should be careful: Wall Street is too eager to buy the dip in bonds, says Strategas
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-30 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Investors lured by high yields could be making a mistake if they are buying bonds these days, according to Strategas. Meanwhile, investment grade bonds are yielding even more, with the ICE BofA U.S. Corporate Index 's effective yield sitting at 6.3%. Bond yields move inversely to prices, so when prices fall, yields move higher, and vice versa. Strategas is of the mindset that until the market suggests otherwise, the trend in yields is up. In fact, not many investors made real money playing against the trend in the four decades when yields were falling, Verrone pointed out.

Persons: Chris Verrone, Verrone, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, ICE Locations: Strategas

The yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by 4 basis points at 4.888%. The 2-year Treasury yield was trading more than 3 basis points higher at 5.048%. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday to kick off a big week of events including a Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting and the release of key economic data. Uncertainty has grown since the last Fed meeting in September, when policymakers suggested one further rate hike this year was likely. However, Treasury yields have spiked since then, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising above 5% last week, prompting several Fed officials to say rates do not need to go any higher as elevated yields effectively work to ease the economy.

Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Frazzled U.S. stock investors eye frothy Treasury market as Fed looms
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-28 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. October has lived up to its reputation for volatility, as a surge in Treasury yields and geopolitical uncertainty pressured stocks. Higher Treasury yields are seen as a headwind to stocks, in part because they compete with equities for buyers. More broadly, some believe the stock market's trading patterns this year point to a rebound in the fourth quarter. "The stock market is poised for a late Q4 rally."

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Sam Stovall, CME's, Alex McGrath, Charlie Ripley, Tesla, Stovall, Ned Davis, Randy Frederick, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Apple Inc, Treasury, Strong U.S, CFRA Research, Investors, U.S, Gross, Fed, Allianz Investment Management, Google, CFRA, Ned Davis Research, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen expects a recession to come and go quickly before a stock market rally in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Billionaire hedge fund boss Steve Cohen doesn't expect a deep recession or a prolonged market downturn. Cohen said his hedge fund, Point72, maintains a "pretty positive" outlook on the economy. AdvertisementAdvertisementSteve Cohen, the billionaire chief of hedge fund Point72 and the owner of the New York Mets, has an upbeat outlook for the US economy and financial markets. AdvertisementAdvertisementEarlier this week, investing pioneer Rob Arnott shared a contrasting outlook for the economy this week. Recessions always start with an economy that's been booming.

Persons: Steve Cohen doesn't, Cohen, —, Steve Cohen, Rob Arnott, Arnott, Jerome Powell, CME's, Powell Organizations: Service, New York Mets, CNBC

On the earnings front, United Parcel Service (UPS.N) dipped 3.5% after lowering its full-year revenue forecast, while Royal Caribbean Group (RCL.N) rose 2.5% after the cruise company raised its full-year profit forecast. Hasbro (HAS.O) fell 8.2% after the maker of Transformers action figures cut its annual revenue forecast. So far, 80% of the 146 S&P 500 companies that have reported results have beat earnings expectations, LSEG data showed on Wednesday. ET, Dow e-minis were down 151 points, or 0.46%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 30.75 points, or 0.73%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 146.25 points, or 1.01%. Align Technology (ALGN.O) tanked 23.9% after the dental company lowered its full-year revenue forecast.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Tesla, Bob Savage, BNY Mellon, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Ford, UAW Futures, Dow, Nasdaq, Big Tech, Treasury, Microsoft, United Parcel Service, Royal Caribbean Group, Hasbro, Mattel, Market, BNY, Federal Reserve, Dow e, Hamas, Ford Motor, United Auto Workers, Technology, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Gaza, Russia, Bengaluru

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 23, 2023. Google-parent Alphabet (GOOGL.O) slid 6.6% in premarket trading as its cloud business crawled to its slowest growth in at least 11 quarters. Microsoft (MSFT.O), on the other hand, rose 3.9% after topping expectations for first-quarter results in all segments, including its cloud business. Of the 118 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far, 81% have beaten analysts' earnings expectations, LSEG data showed on Tuesday. ET, Dow e-minis were up 47 points, or 0.14%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 13 points, or 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 78.75 points, or 0.53%.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Danni Hewson, AJ Bell's, Israel, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Savio D'Souza, Shounak Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, U.S, Treasury, Google, Microsoft, Apple, Mobile, Dow e, . Federal Reserve, Traders, Texas, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Texas, Gaza, Bengaluru

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