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☆ Dollar steady as traders consider Fed, global rates outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The increased expectations that U.S. and global interest rates may have further to rise has come on the back of surprise rate increases by the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this week. The Canadian dollar was last steady at C$1.3365 to the greenback, after rising to a one-month top of C$1.3321 in the previous session. The U.S. dollar index dipped slightly to 104.02, though strayed not too far from an over two-month high hit last week, on the back of higher Treasury yields. Money markets are pricing in a 29% chance that the Fed raises rates by 25bps at its policy meeting next week. "Markets have raised their FOMC rate hike expectations following a surprise Bank of Canada rate hike," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Persons: Edward Moya, Carol Kong, Ray Attrill Organizations: Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of Canada, BoC, Reserve Bank of Australia, Wednesday, Canadian, U.S, European Central Bank, 25bps, of Canada, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, National Australia Bank Locations: Chicago, Asia

☆ Dollar adrift as traders assess Fed options; Aussie buoyant
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

In the broader currency market, the U.S. dollar dipped in early Asia trade, as traders pared back their expectations of a rate hike at next week's FOMC meeting. Against the greenback, sterling rose 0.08% to $1.2432, while the kiwi gained 0.08% to $0.6084. "We don't think the FOMC will hike next week ... but risks again are skewed to the upside," said Kong. The U.S. dollar index slipped 0.03% to 104.05, while the euro rose 0.07% to $1.0698. CRYPTO SHAKEOUTIn the cryptoverse, bitcoin , the world's biggest cryptocurrency, was last marginally higher at $27,273, after jumping nearly 6% on Tuesday.

Persons: Philip Lowe, Carol Kong, Lowe, CRYPTO, Coinbase, Binance, Changpeng Zhao, Tony Sycamore, Rae Wee, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Federal Reserve, Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia's, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, U.S, Fed, The U.S, European Central Bank, U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, SEC, IG Markets, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S, The, Turkish

☆ Euro steadies after Lagarde promises rate hike as inflation still too high
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Joice Alves | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - The euro held its ground on Thursday, above a two-month low, after European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde said inflation remains too high and further policy tightening was necessary. But the current level is still more than three times the ECB's 2% inflation target. "Today, inflation is too high and it is set to remain so for too long," Lagarde said in a speech. Money markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a 25 bps hike when the ECB meets on June 15. Another 25 bps hike is expected in July, according to Refinitiv.

Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Simon Harvey, Luis de Guindos, Carol Kong, Joice Alves, Rae Wee, Simon Cameron, Moore, Sharon Singleton, Andrew Heavens Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Reserve, U.S . House, Fed, U.S, Democratic, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Europe, London, Singapore

☆ Dollar retreats as Fed pause eyed; U.S. debt deal clears House
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar was mixed in Asia trade and barely reacted to the vote, with the euro rising 0.04% against the greenback to $1.06895. Fed officials including the vice chair-designate pointed towards a rate hike "skip" in June, giving time for the U.S. central bank to assess the impact of its tightening cycle thus far against still strong inflation data. Elsewhere, the Japanese yen rose nearly 0.1% to 139.24 per dollar. CHINA'S BUMPY RECOVERYIn Asia, the Chinese offshore yuan rose over 0.1% to 7.1077, reversing some of its losses from the previous session, when it slumped to a six-month low. The yuan had fallen nearly 3% against the dollar in both the onshore and offshore markets in May, as China's post-COVID economic recovery struggles to gain steam.

Persons: Sterling, Carol Kong, Christopher Wong, Rae Wee, Christian Schmollinger Organizations: Federal Reserve, House, Democratic, U.S, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, U.S ., New, People's Bank of China, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Japan, China, New Zealand

☆ Asia stocks slump to monthly loss as China data disappoints
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The Australian dollar is sliding towards a fourth consecutive monthly loss and at $0.6492 is barely above last week's seven-month lows. Aussie stocks (.AXJO) are eying their worst month since February with a 2.4% drop. Based on these factors, we raise our end-2023 targets for Japanese stocks, to 2,300 for TOPIX and 32,500 for the Nikkei 225." Benchmark 10-year yields dropped 12.4 basis points overnight and fell another 1.5 bps on Wednesday in Asian trade to 3.6808%. The drop in yields put a pause in what looks to be the U.S. dollar's best monthly rally since February.

Persons: stockmarkets, Carol Kong, Masashi Akutsu, Joe Biden, Treasuries, Philip Lowe, Sam Holmes Organizations: Nikkei, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, of America, Republican, Brent, Thomson Locations: China, Asia, Japan, SINGAPORE, Pacific, U.S, United States

☆ Dollar eases as deal over US debt ceiling lifts risk appetite
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A handful of hard-right Republican lawmakers said on Monday they would oppose a deal to raise the United States' $31.4 trillion debt ceiling. "Still, a higher debt ceiling and some reduction in spending in the FY24 budget are the middle ground." "Outside of any volatility generated by the debt ceiling issues, expectations for Fed rate hikes are likely to keep the dollar bid in the near term." Longer-dated U.S. Treasuries rallied in Asia on Tuesday on the debt ceiling deal. Until then, higher U.S. Treasury yields and weak expectations for BoJ tightening can push USD/JPY higher."

☆ Dollar eases as deal over U.S. debt ceiling lifts risk appetite
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

☆ Dollar set for third week of gains as US debt talks loom large
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar index — which tracks the greenback against six major counterparts — was last down 0.05% on the day at 104.20, just off Thursday's two-month high of 104.31. The dollar edged away from a six-month high against the yen and last stood at 139.67, having reached 140.23 yen in the previous session, its highest since November. The euro and British pound regained some ground, but were struggling to recoup recent losses against the dollar. The single currency was last up 0.07% against the dollar at $1.0727, but was not far from its two-month low of $1.0708 hit in the previous session. Sterling gained 0.23% to $1.2349, after data showed British consumers picked up spending in April, although the currency was still heading for a weekly loss.

Persons: Joe Biden, Kevin McCarthy, MUFG, —, Carol Kong, Boris Vujcic, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Wall, Federal Reserve, Fed, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, British, European Central Bank Locations: U.S, Washington, Croatian

☆ Debt ceiling hopes lift dollar to seven-week peak
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Samuel Indyk | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar hit a seven-week peak on Thursday after President Joe Biden and top U.S. congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy worked towards avoiding a damaging debt default, while investors scaled back Federal Reserve easing expectations. Biden and McCarthy on Wednesday underscored their determination to strike a deal soon to raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, having agreed a day earlier to negotiate directly after a months-long standoff. "In the short-term, the debt ceiling is win-win for the dollar," said Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda Research. "If it gets worse, you're going to see a global hard landing and you will want to be owning dollars. Traders are pricing in around a 20% chance that the Federal Reserve raises its interest rate at its June meeting.

Biden and McCarthy on Wednesday underscored their determination to strike a deal soon to raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, having agreed a day earlier to negotiate directly after a months-long standoff. "In the short-term, the debt ceiling is win-win for the dollar," said Viraj Patel, global macro strategist at Vanda Research. Traders are pricing in around a 20% chance that the Federal Reserve raises its interest rate at its June meeting. The dollar index firmed 0.2% to 103.08, near Wednesday's seven-week peak of 103.12. Elsewhere, the dollar rose to a ten-week high of 137.89 yen , extending Wednesday's nearly 1% gain against the Japanese currency.

☆ Dollar firms on optimism over U.S. debt ceiling talks, Aussie down after jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar held near a seven-week peak on Thursday, after President Joe Biden and top U.S. congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy worked towards avoiding a damaging debt default, while the Aussie dollar slipped after disappointing jobs data. Biden and McCarthy on Wednesday underscored their determination to strike a deal soon to raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, having agreed a day earlier to negotiate directly after a months-long standoff. "We got some positive headlines over the debt ceiling negotiations ... so that obviously supported market sentiment," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The Japanese yen last bought 137.50 per dollar, having fallen nearly 1% on Wednesday. The kiwi fell 0.05% to $0.6245, while the Chinese offshore yuan slipped nearly 0.1% to 7.0147 per dollar.

☆ Dollar firms on optimism over US debt ceiling talks, Aussie down after jobs data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar held near a seven-week peak on Thursday, after President Joe Biden and top U.S. congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy worked towards avoiding a damaging debt default, while the Aussie dollar slipped after disappointing jobs data. Biden and McCarthy on Wednesday underscored their determination to strike a deal soon to raise the government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, having agreed a day earlier to negotiate directly after a months-long standoff. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index firmed near its seven-week peak hit in the previous session, and last stood at 102.86. "We got some positive headlines over the debt ceiling negotiations ... so that obviously supported market sentiment," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The Japanese yen last bought 137.50 per dollar, having fallen nearly 1% on Wednesday.

☆ Dollar softer as US debt ceiling crisis unresolved, inflation data eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 10 (Reuters) - The dollar weakened broadly on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden and top lawmakers failed to break a deadlock on the debt ceiling crisis, though currency moves were marginal amid caution ahead of U.S. inflation data later in the day. The two, however, agreed to further talks and committed their aides to daily discussions about areas of possible agreement. "There has been a lot of attention lately on the debt ceiling issues," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). Also preoccupying investors was U.S. inflation data, with economists polled by Reuters expecting a 5.5% year-on-year increase in core consumer prices for April. "I think markets are already expecting the Bank of Japan to make some moves."

☆ Dollar softer as U.S. debt ceiling crisis unresolved, inflation data eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

An employee deals with U.S. one-hundred dollar banknotes at a bank on June 16, 2022 in Hai an, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province of China. The dollar weakened broadly on Wednesday after U.S. President Joe Biden and top lawmakers failed to break a deadlock on the debt ceiling crisis, though currency moves were marginal amid caution ahead of U.S. inflation data later in the day. "There has been a lot of attention lately on the debt ceiling issues," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Also preoccupying investors was U.S. inflation data, with economists polled by Reuters expecting a 5.5% year-on-year increase in core consumer prices for April. "I think markets are already expecting the Bank of Japan to make some moves."

☆ Yen set to snap 3-week losing streak on bank jitters, dollar slips
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A bundle of Japanese 10,000 yen banknotes on a tray arranged at a branch of Resona Bank Ltd. in Tokyo, Japan. "The Japanese yen has slowly gained back its appeal of safe haven status, and has definitely been supported by concerns about U.S. regional banks and the associated safe-haven demand," Kong said. A deepening crisis across U.S. regional banks have kept investors on tenterhooks, with pressure growing on U.S. regulators to take more steps to shore up the sector. "For the Fed's June decision, inflation data and employment indicators ... along with bank lending standards will be key to watch. Down Under, the Australian dollar rose 0.26% to $0.6711, while the kiwi NZD=D3 touched a three-week high of $0.6311.

☆ Yen set to snap 3-week losing streak on bank jitters, dollar slides
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Although ECB President Christine Lagarde signalled more tightening to come, markets pared back their expectations on how much further rates would rise. Traders have since priced in more aggressive rate cuts from the Fed, with Fed funds futures implying a small chance that cuts could come as soon as June and through to the end of the year. The Aussie and the kiwi were among the largest beneficiaries of the sliding dollar, each rising more than 0.5% and touching multi-week highs. "For the Fed's June decision, inflation data and employment indicators ... along with bank lending standards will be key to watch. The Australian dollar was last up 0.62% at $0.6735, after touching a two-week peak earlier in the session.

☆ Dollar steady after Fed's rate pause hints, yen rises
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar was steady on Friday near seven-week lows as nervousness over the banking system kept investors skittish and traders absorbed the Federal Reserve's hints of a pause to interest rate hikes. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, fell 0.019% at 102.56, just above the seven-week low of 101.91 it touched on Thursday. The yen strengthened 0.34% to 130.37 per dollar, having touched six-week high of 130.28 earlier in the session. The euro was down 0.03% to $1.0827, easing from a seven-week high of $1.0930 it touched on Thursday. The Australian dollar fell 0.31% to $0.666, while the kiwi fell 0.22% to $0.623.

☆ Dollar languishes as bank crisis fears ebb on Credit Suisse rescue
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, March 21 (Reuters) - The dollar regained some ground on Tuesday but was pinned near a five-week low as traders tiptoed back into riskier assets after UBS' state-backed takeover of Credit Suisse allayed some fears of a widespread, systemic banking crisis. "There has been pretty modest demand for U.S. dollars at the Fed swap lines, so that is a positive sign in and of itself," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). The dollar slipped 0.12% to 131.15 against the Japanese yen , while the U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.04% to 103.30. Lower U.S. rate expectations also added to downward pressure on the dollar ahead of the Fed's two-day policy meeting commencing later on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand said on Tuesday it saw no immediate need to request the reinstatement of a U.S. dollar swap line that expired in 2021.

☆ Fear over bank turmoil sparks flight to safe haven currencies
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, March 16 (Reuters) - Safe haven currencies like the U.S. dollar and the yen were in bid on Thursday on renewed fears of a global banking crisis, after contagion from the implosion of U.S.-based Silicon Valley Bank had spread across the Atlantic to Swiss bank Credit Suisse. The yen jumped about 0.5% in early Asia trade and last stood at 132.73 per dollar, extending Wednesday's 0.6% gain. "Given the elevated uncertainties and concerns about broader financial contagion, the dollar, as well as the yen, will be the main beneficiaries because of safe haven demand." The European Central Bank meets later on Thursday and is due to announce its interest rate decision following the meeting. "It will definitely be a tough call for any major central bank to stick with its tightening path."

☆ Dollar slides on likely rate pause in wake of SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Investor focus will now be on Tuesday's inflation data to gauge how hawkish the Fed is likely to be. "Given what's happened in the U.S. financial system, a 25 basis point hike is more likely than a 50 basis point hike." The market is now pricing a nearly 18% chance of the Fed sticking to its current rate and an 82% chance of a 25 basis point hike. In contrast, the market was pricing a 70% chance of a 50 basis point hike before the SVB collapse. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen strengthened 0.61% versus the U.S. dollar to 134.18 per dollar, having touched a one-month high of 133.58 earlier in the session.

☆ Dollar sinks as US intervenes on SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

It had previously expected a 25 basis point hike. The SVB collapse led investors to speculate that the Fed would now hesitate to hike interest rates by a super-sized 50 basis points this month. "Given what's happened in the U.S. financial system, a 25 basis point hike is more likely than a 50 basis point hike." In contrast, the market was pricing a 70% chance of a 50 basis point hike before the SVB collapse. The Australian dollar surged 1.41% to $0.667, and was on track for its biggest one-day percentage jump since Jan. 6.

☆ VIEW US intervenes to shore up SVB deposits, stem financial fallout
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +10 min

March 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. government announced actions to shore up deposits and stem any broader financial fallout from the sudden collapse of tech startup-focused lender Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) (SVB), sending U.S. stock futures higher. "The market turbulence sparked by SVB has upended rising market expectations on the Fed rate path. The fact that SVB and Signature Bank depositors will be made whole is critical in maintaining trust in the financial system and should help stem contagion fears this week. But it also means that 50 basis points (a possible Fed interest rate hike) is off the table." Given what's happened in the U.S. financial system, a 25 basis point hike is more likely than a 50 basis point hike."

☆ Dollar slides as U.S. intervenes on SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The U.S. government announced several measures early on Monday Asian hours, and said all SVB customers will have access to their deposits starting on Monday. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, fell 0.153% at 104.080. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.34% to 134.52 per dollar, the highest in a month as investors made a move to safe-haven Asian currencies. "The currency market is still digesting all the news related to the collapse of SVB," said Carol Kong, currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank Of Australia. The Australian dollar rose 0.79% to $0.663, while the kiwi rose 0.36% to $0.616.

☆ Instant view: US intervenes to shore up SVB deposits, limit financial fallout
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +11 min

March 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. government announced actions to shore up deposits and stem any broader financial fallout from the sudden collapse of tech startup-focused lender Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB.O) (SVB), sending U.S. stock futures higher. ALVIN TAN, HEAD OF ASIA FX STRATEGY, RBC CAPITAL MARKETS, SINGAPORE:"Markets remain unsettled from the SVB failure. "The market turbulence sparked by SVB has upended rising market expectations on the Fed rate path. ANTHONY SAGLIMBENE, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, AMERIPRISE FINANCIAL, TROY, MICHIGAN:"It was imperative that regulators stepped in and decisively acted before markets around the world opened for the week. GREG MCBRIDE, CHIEF FINANCIAL ANALYST, BANKRATE:"While the Fed has talked about a lot in the past year, until today it has been in the context of monetary policy.

☆ Dollar advances, Aussie slides as Australia economy slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-01 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Australia's economy grew at the weakest pace in a year last quarter while the country's monthly consumer prices rose less than expected in January, separate data showed on Wednesday. The Aussie slumped in the aftermath of the data to a two-month trough, and was last 0.47% lower at $0.6697. "We see the Fed going to 5.5%, with a growing risk of 6%," said Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank. Elsewhere, the dollar rose 0.12% against the Japanese yen to 136.38, after having spiked close to 5% against the yen in February, its largest monthly gain since last June. The kiwi fell 0.28% to $0.6167, while the Chinese offshore yuan slipped marginally to 6.9603 per dollar.

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