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JPMorgan's trading desk has some ideas on how much the stock market might move following Friday's all-important job report. Between 120,000 and 200,000 jobs added; 30% chance: This is the so-called Goldilocks print. The S & P 500 should finish the day somewhere between flat and up 0.5%. Below 20,000 jobs added; 5% chance: This should catalyze a large sell-off as a negative nonfarm payrolls print typically front runs a recession. The S & P 500 should pull back somewhere within the range of 0.75% and 1.5%.
Persons: payrolls, Dow Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, Equity
Mandel Ngan | AFP | Getty ImagesHow I bond rates workI bond rates have a variable and fixed rate portion, which the Treasury adjusts every May and November. You can see the history of both parts of the I bond rate here. The variable rate is based on inflation and stays the same for six months after your purchase date, regardless of the Treasury's next announcement. How I bond rate changes affect current holdersIf you currently own I bonds, there's a six-month timeline for rate changes, which shifts depending on your original purchase date. But your fixed rate would remain at 1.30%.
Persons: Mandel Ngan, there's Organizations: US Department of Treasury, AFP, Getty, Treasury Locations: Washington ,
But for some Arizona voters, only Trump’s election denialism is resonating. A Fox News poll in late August found 32% of Arizona voters surveyed didn’t believe Biden was legitimately elected president. Taylor Hammond, 30, a real estate agent from Phoenix, doesn’t believe Trump lost in 2020. Speaking at a campaign event in Tucson in 2022, Lake said: “We don’t have any McCain Republicans in here, do we? But for other voters, Lake’s false claims about her election loss resonated.
Persons: Donald Trump, Kari Lake, John Giza, Trump, , parroting Trump’s, Lake’s, Katie Hobbs, , Karen Miller, Miller, ” Miller, “ It’s, Brendan Dolleman, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, Dolleman, Lamb, Ruben Gallego, Sen, Kyrsten Sinema’s, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, Bill Clinton, didn’t, Biden, Taylor Hammond, Hammond, Lake, ” Hammond, Tyler Hammond, Stephen Richer, don’t, “ I’m, John McCain, McCain, Cindy McCain, ” Neil Rubin, Rubin, Dana Morrison, Hobbs, ” Morrison, Sally Foree, ” Barrett Marson, wasn’t, “ Donald Trump, ” Marson, “ There’s Organizations: Arizona GOP, Walmart, Trump, Lake, NBC News, Senate, , Pinal County Sheriff, Republican, Democratic Rep, Democrat, Arizona, Fox, Republicans, Voting, Fox News, Dominion, Mar, Republican Maricopa, CNN, Arizona Republican, “ McCain Republicans, McCain, McCain Republicans, Democratic Locations: Arizona, Giza, Prescott Valley, Scottsdale, Pinal County, , Gallego, Maricopa, Phoenix, Republican Maricopa County, Tucson, America, Peoria, Ahwatukee
They have IRAs, savings accounts, and an investment portfolio to help during retirement. Like most people, I didn't really start thinking about retirement until I was past my mid-40s. With no house or vehicle payments, utilities, or property taxes, our investment income exceeds our budgeted monthly living expenses. Outside of that, we have our IRAs, savings accounts, and a small self-directed investment portfolio. Life Is What You Make ItLooking back, I wish I'd started sooner, but I was fortunate.
Persons: Chris Mott, couldn't, Mott, , I'm, Chris, Kim, Dodge, I've, It's, we've, I'd, Gigi, Papa, Manseen Logan Organizations: Service, Western, Social Security Locations: California, Western United States, Canada, Orange County, Yorba Linda, Vancouver , Washington, Orange, Lake Havasu, mlogan
Silver told Fortt that his current model shows the odds favoring Trump, who holds a 55% to 45% win probability advantage over Harris. Most people no longer even have the landline phones which past election cycle polling history relied on. Why the betting markets may be all 'vibe and chatter'The betting markets show a much bigger edge for Trump, with major wagers placed on Polymarket, Robinhood jumping into the action, and presidential election contracts surging in popularity. Critics have raised concerns that the election betting markets are potentially being manipulated. But Silver, who is a consultant to one of the leading prediction markets, Polymarket, says he wouldn't pay much attention to the betting markets data right now, as they simply may not be very accurate at this moment in the election cycle.
Persons: Nate Silver, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Silver, Trump, CNBC's, Jon Fortt, Fortt, Harris, Ken Griffin, Stanley Drunkenmiller, Critics Organizations: New York Times, CNBC Technology, CNBC, Trump, Trump Media Locations: New York City
CNBC Daily Open: Everyone gave Reddit an upvote
  + stars: | 2024-10-30 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. It's not too surprising, then, that the companies behind those services – Snap , Reddit and Alphabet – reported third-quarter results that beat Wall Street's expectations. It's Meta's and Microsoft's turn to report earnings later today. Note: CNBC Daily Open will be on a break Thursday, Oct. 31, for the public holiday in Singapore.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Reddit, Evan Spiegel, That's, It's, Microsoft isn't, Meta, — CNBC's Julia Boorstin, Jonathan Vanian, Jennifer Elias Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Inc, CNBC, Finance, Google, Microsoft, Meta Locations: Singapore
The U.K.'s Labour Party is set to unveil its national budget for the first time in 14 years later on Wednesday. Investment bank analysts have highlighted several stocks that could win or lose ground if the rumored measures are unveiled or curtailed. The Wall Street bank's analysts added that "U.K. long-dated yields might decline with easing budget uncertainty and continued inflation relief". The chancellor is reported to want to remove the inheritance tax relief available to investors holding stocks listed in this market in the Wednesday budget. Such a move may entice existing investors to sell the stocks, if the tax policy change likely impacts them.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Goldman Sachs, Christian Mueller, Glissmann, Pound Sterling, Investec's Ben Newell, Alan Brierley, Investec's, Genuity, Canaccord Genuity, Alex Brooks, Justin Bates, Portia Patel, Michael Bloom Organizations: Labour, Finance, Investment, London Stock Exchange, Foresight, Fund, Greencoat, Renewables, Infrastructure, International, AIM, London Stock Exchange's, Technology Ashtead Tech Locations: United Kingdom
The case for a 50/30/20 portfolio is growing as investors seek to diversify into alternatives as a hedge against a stock and bond market that are each flashing cautionary signals. "And so, let me allocate a little bit, because instead of a 60/40, perhaps it's a [50/30/20]," she said, clarifying 50% to stocks, 30% to bonds, and the remaining 20% to alternatives. The case for alternatives The case for alternatives is two-fold. Still, investors say that the the asset class can help hedge against real risks ahead of stocks and bonds. One ETF investing in private equity asset managers is the Invesco Global Listed Private Equity ETF (PSP) .
Persons: Ayako Yoshioka, you've, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Corporates, Yoshioka, Paul Tudor Jones, Mark Malek, it's, , Jesse Pound Organizations: Investors, Bank of America, Treasury, U.S, State Street, Apollo Global Management, Blackstone, Ares Management, KKR, Co, Carlyle Group, Equity ETF Locations: U.S, Siebert
The 6-trillion-yuan worth of debt would be raised over three years including 2024, said the sources, adding the proceeds would primarily be used to help local governments address off-the-books debt risks. Local governments would be allowed to raise that amount on top of their usual annual issuance quota, which mainly funds infrastructure spending. The quota stood at 3.9 trillion yuan this year and 3.8 trillion in 2023. The latest move is aimed at enhancing local governments' ability to manage land supply, and alleviate liquidity and debt pressures on both local governments and property developers, they added. Special-purpose bonds are a tool for off-budget debt financing used by Chinese local governments, with the proceeds raised typically earmarked for specific policy objectives, such as infrastructure expenditures.
Persons: Stringer, Donald Trump, it's, Tommy Xie, Trump, Kamala Harris Organizations: Afp, Getty, National People's Congress, Reuters, Information, NPC, Greater, Greater China Research, OCBC Bank, U.S, Trump, Republican, Democratic Locations: Chongqing, China, Beijing, Greater China
Maja Smiejkowska | ReutersLONDON — U.K. borrowing costs on Wednesday touched their highest level since Labour took office, after Finance Minister Rachel Reeves unveiled a vast package of tax hikes in her first budget. The yield had cooled to a 3 basis point rise to 4.35% by 4:00 p.m. U.K. time (12:00 p.m. The yield on 2-year bonds, which in the U.K. are known as gilts, were over 6 basis points higher at 4.33% after rising by as much as 10 basis points. The Treasury separately said it would raise gilt issuance by £22.2 billion ($28.9 billion) to £299.9 billion for the fiscal year to meet its net financing requirement. Those included the facts that many key policies had already been announced, and that any increase in borrowing would be to fund public investment.
Persons: Rachel Reeves, Maja Smiejkowska, Reeves, Liz Truss Organizations: Reuters LONDON, Labour, Treasury, Conservative Party, Bank of England Locations: London, Britain
The outcome of upcoming elections in the world's leading economy is set to ripple into global markets no matter who clinches leadership of the White House, UBS head Sergio Ermotti told CNBC on Wednesday. "We do expect, no matter who wins and the outcome, we do expect some market movements. Markets are bracing as voters flock to the polls on Nov. 5, with the U.S. holding both the world's foremost reserve currency and the largest stock exchange by market capitalization. Under a [Donald] Trump presidency, we see that as being inflationary on the back of his focus on immigration and on tariffs. But we don't see any outcome as being particularly growth positive.
Persons: Sergio Ermotti, CNBC's Annette Weisbach, Ermotti, Donald, Trump, Arun Sai, CNBC's Organizations: White House, UBS, CNBC, Swiss, U.S, U.S . Federal, . Treasury, Pictet Asset Management, Trump Locations: U.S
CNBC's Jim Cramer on Tuesday lamented rising bond yields' effect on the market, saying this action could narrow the rally to tech and diminish broader sector gains. Some on Wall Street were expecting bond yields to decline after the Federal Reserve issued a hefty 50-basis-point cut and indicated there would be more to come over the next several months. Cramer said investors are drawn back to tech stocks as higher rates complicate the growth narratives for economically sensitive corners of the market. In recent months, investors were hoping that lower borrowing costs would help companies — such as those in the industrial sector and other housing-related areas — see an increase in business and, by extension, their stock prices. "If [the bond market] doesn't stop its retreat, then we're going to start questioning the idea that the Fed will keep cutting rates, ushering in a fabulous economy for 2025," Cramer said.
Persons: CNBC's Jim Cramer, Cramer Organizations: Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKey 2025 market driver will be increase in term premium, says Neuberger Berman's KnutzenErik Knutzen, Neuberger Berman multi-asset strategies co-CIO, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss investing in short-term bonds, how to position ahead of the election, and more.
Persons: Neuberger Berman's Knutzen Erik Knutzen, Neuberger Berman
The CEOs of Southwest Airlines and American Airlines both want Boeing to deliver planes on time. "Boeing has been a great partner for the whole 53 years of Southwest Airlines, but we need Boeing to be strong. Southwest's fleet consists of 228 Boeing 737 Max 8s, 381 Boeing 737-800s, and 207 Boeing 737-700s, according to aviation website FlightRadar24. Southwest reported earlier this year that it expected to receive around 20 Boeing 737 Max 8. The manufacturer announced on Monday that it is offering 90 million common shares and about $5 billion worth of depositary shares for sale.
Persons: , Bob Jordan, Robert Isom, Jordan, it's, Isom, they're, We've, he's, Kelly Ortberg, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Southwest Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, Service, Southwest, Yahoo Finance, Max, CNBC, Alaska Airlines, SEC, Bank of America, Citibank, JPMorgan, Business
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMunis will continue to outperform taxable bonds, says Allspring's Nick VendittiNick Venditti, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, joins CNBC's 'The Exchange' to discuss areas of the market that could benefit from expiring tax breaks, how to position, and more.
Persons: Nick Venditti Nick Venditti Organizations: Allspring Global Investments
China is considering a fresh $1.4 trillion stimulus, Reuters reported. The package could be approved next week and would increase in size if Trump wins the election. The large fiscal stimulus would be increased if Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump wins the US election, the report says. The remaining 4 trillion yuan would be raised by local government bonds and put toward idle land and property purchases, the sources told Reuters. AdvertisementIf Trump is elected, the stimulus package could be higher due to the economic challenges Trump's policies would pose for China, the sources told Reuters.
Persons: Trump's, , Donald Trump, Trump, he's, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Reuters, Trump, Service, Republican, National People's Congress, China, Wall Locations: China, Beijing
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNo need to be 'purely defensive' because of US election risk, says CIOHartmut Issel, Head CIO Equities APAC at UBS Global Wealth Management, makes the case for investment-grade bonds and financials as strategic plays, regardless of who wins the presidency in the U.S. election race.
Persons: Hartmut Issel Organizations: UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: U.S
Let’s do that now, because here’s what I think we’ve been watching:A World Series with possibly eight future Hall of Famers. So no World Series is ever catching the 1932 Series, when an incredible 13 eventual Hall of Famers took the field. How about saying you were there when Freddie Freeman took over a World Series in his own Freddie-esque way? And it looks exactly like that dude who trots — or sometimes limps — out to first base every night in this World Series. • Easy as 1-2-3 — We’re three games into this World Series, and Freeman has homered in all three of those games.
Persons: Clayton Kershaw, Daniel Hudson, — Aaron Judge, Shohei, I’m, hasn’t, Freddie, Homer, There’s Kershaw, Freeman, There’s, — Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, , Gerrit Cole’s, Cy, Giancarlo Stanton, you’ve, us, Reggie Jackson’s postseasons, Stanton, Giancarlo Stanton’s, bolsters, Jayne Kamin, Juan Soto — There’s, let’s, Heck, Kershaw, “ I’ve, , Jose Trevino, , , Freddie Freeman, Tyler Glasnow, ” Glasnow, he’s, “ He’s, it’s, It’s, Kiké, ” Hernández, “ he’s, That’s, Robert Gauthier, Let’s, Lou Gehrig, there’s Freeman, Hank Bauer, Barry Bonds, Dave Roberts, Guess, He’s, Sam Hovland, Gary Pettis, Pettis, ” FREEMAN, Freddie Freeman wallops, Ohtani, Daniel Shirey Organizations: of Famers, ” Dodgers, Dodgers, Netflix, Famer, Cy Young, of Famer, Yankee, Yankees, Braves, Phillies, Orioles, of Fame, Baseball, of, Los Angeles Times, Getty Images, Wild Department, Bombers, Cardinals, Ohtani, Padres Locations: Bronx, Cooperstown, , N.Y, Vegas
Investors face diminishing returns from cash alternatives as interest rates decline. Today, cash alternatives are yielding slightly less. Specifically, those who didn't have liquidity needs but chose to sit in cash anyway missed out on a strong year for the S&P 500. If liquidity needs arise, investors may be able to sell for a profit if the Fed's cutting cycle is steeper than expected, he added. Simply put, the M2 money supply, which includes cash and cash alternatives, has skyrocketed since 2020 by over 36%, debasing the dollar.
Persons: , Mark Malek, Siebert, Malek, David Miller, Miller, Millers Organizations: Service, Treasury, AAA, Catalyst Funds, Federal, World Gold Council, Investors Locations: Treasuries, Russia, Central
Washington had pressed its ally in the hopes of ending the cycle of attacks and avoiding escalation into a wider war. Blinken said the U.S. is tracking the aid deliveries very carefully and “absolutely essential” that Israel comply. "Israel has achieved most of its strategic objectives when it comes to Gaza,” Blinken said in Tel Aviv. (It also signed off on $9.5 billion in humanitarian aid for Gaza, as well as the conflict zones of Ukraine and Sudan.) But far-fetched as it might seem, it came up during Blinken’s meeting with the Saudi crown prince during this trip.
Persons: Antony Blinken, Benjamin Netanyahu, it’d, Yahya Sinwar, Isaac Herzog, Nathan Howard, Amos Hochstein, Donald Trump, Netanyahu —, Netanyahu, Blinken, Israel, ” Blinken, “ It’s, Ibrahim Fakhroo, Sinwar, William Burns, Khalil al, , Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Joe Biden, Ayman Safadi, we’ve, ” It’s Organizations: State Department, Getty, Israel, Hamas, Trump, Qatar's Ministry of Foreign, CIA, Qatari, Senior, Palestinian Authority, Saudi Crown, U.S, U.S . Locations: United States, Israel, Iran, Washington, Gaza, Egypt, Lebanon, Blinken, Tel Aviv, AFP, U.S, Beirut, Saudi Arabia, Doha, Qatar, Riyadh, Ukraine, Sudan, Saudi, Palestinian, Jordanian, London
Income investors have a lot riding on the outcome of next week's presidential election, according to RBC Global Asset Management. Positioning if Harris wins A win by Harris would be constructive for fixed-income, Skiba said. With money markets close to multi-year highs, there is a lot of money that investors can put to work, he noted. There is $6.51 trillion sitting in money market funds as of the week ended Oct. 23, according to the Investment Company Institute . "There actually might be a window of opportunity for fixed-income investors to reposition their portfolios without too much pain incurred in the process," Skiba said.
Persons: Andrzej Skiba, Donald Trump, Trump, Kamala Harris, Skiba, Harris Organizations: RBC Global Asset Management, Federal, Trump, Investors, Investment Company Institute Locations: U.S
This is the first in a five-part series about the impact both Trump and Harris presidencies could have on US consumers. To date, Trump and Harris have outlined specific policy proposals that will impact different parts of the stock market. The guide covers four specific asset classes, and is divided between the Trump and Harris impact on each. Advertisement"Our upbeat projections for the stock market in 2024 and 2025 are predicated on a view that hype over AI will continue to fuel a stock market bubble," the research firm said. And since presidential actions usually impact rates, the bond market will be shaped by what either Trump or Harris end up doing.
Persons: Harris, , Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Today's, they're, BofA, It's, Financials, Trump's, Trump, Peter Berezin, Joe Biden's, Bonds, Crypto, Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani, bitcoin, Chhugani, Harris Harris, she's, I'm, Larry Fink, Biden, it's Organizations: Trump, Service, Business, Wall, Bank of America, Allies, Foundation, BCA Research, Harris, Democratic, Economics, Capital, Federal, Harris Capital Economics, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, bitcoin, BlackRock, Capital Economics, Fed Locations: China
They applied more pressure early in Game 3, and now they’re a victory away from winning the World Series. Except when the fastball is playing like it did in the World Series on Monday night. In the first inning, Buehler started Judge with a fastball over the middle that he was late on. New York’s bats go silent once againThe Yankees’ offense has scored seven runs through the first three games of the World Series. The Yankees’ inability to hit the ball over the fence like the Dodgers have so far is one of the reasons they’re down 3-0 in the World Series.
Persons: Fabian Ardaya, Tyler Kepner, Chris Kirschner, Brendan Kuty, Freddie Freeman, Walker, , Aaron Judge, Francisco Lindor, Tommy John, Buehler, Eno, Judge, Luis Rojas, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Volpe’s, Teoscar, Stanton, wouldn’t, He’s, Anthony Rizzo, Jose Trevino, Alex Verdugo, They’re, Rojas, Hernández, Fangraphs, Daniel Hudson, Chris Taylor, Freeman, Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt, Kirk Gibson, Barry Bonds, Hank Bauer, Freeman —, Atlanta —, George Springer’s, Schmidt, Aaron Boone, Volpe, Verdugo, he’s, Gleyber Torres, Walker Buehler, Robert Gauthier Organizations: Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Dodgers, Yankees, National League, Mets, Atlanta, Yankees Ten, Los Angeles Times, Getty Locations: Bronx
Boeing is looking for a $19 billion boost
  + stars: | 2024-10-28 | by ( Aditi Bharade | Pete Syme | ) www.businessinsider.com   time to read: +3 min
Boeing is looking to raise nearly $19 billion to combat its lack of cash. It comes after Boeing reported a net loss of $6.1 billion in the third quarter. AdvertisementBoeing needs cash, and it's trying to raise almost $19 billion as the company looks to boost its liquidity. The planemaker announced Monday that it is offering 90 million common shares and about $5 billion of depositary shares for sale. Last Wednesday, Boeing reported a net loss of $6.1 billion in its third-quarter earnings.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, Max, Dave Calhoun, Ron Epstein Organizations: Boeing, Alaska Airlines, Service, planemaker, Bank of America, Citibank, JPMorgan Chase, Alaska Airlines Boeing
“Buying gold has never been easier and more accessible.”While gold, typically invested in as a hedge against inflation, has shined this year, there are plenty of things to know before investors join the gold rush. How do you actually go about buying gold? Another consideration when buying gold in the retail market is how the sticker price of the bullion compares to the spot price of gold. But Cavatoni advises having a “round-trip mentality” when purchasing physical gold, emphasizing the importance of the selling stage as much as the purchase process. On the other hand, gold-backed ETFs free consumers from the considerations that need to be made when purchasing physical gold.
Persons: , Joseph Cavatoni, , Cavatoni, “ It’s, ” Cavatoni, prudently Organizations: CNN, Costco, World Gold, of Labor Statistics Locations: China, India, Turkey
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