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Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailExpect a bull market in oil throughout 2023, says Goldman Sachs' Elizabeth BurtonCIO of Bleakley Financial Group Peter Boockvar and Elizabeth Burton, client investment strategist with Goldman Sachs Asset Management, join 'The Exchange' to discuss the commodities market as a safe-haven investment, winners and losers of the China reopening story, and strategic allocation of portfolios.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed rate hike prospects are reliant on non-farm payrolls, says Morgan Stanley's Seth CarpenterSeth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley chief global economist, and Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, join 'Squawk Box' to discuss Europe's recent rate hike, market prospects for Wednesday's Federal Reserve announcement, and more.
"He's going to do that by still saying the Fed's going to stay tight for a while. The Fed's rate hike Wednesday would be the eighth since last March. That is just a half percentage point away from the Fed's estimated end point, or terminal rate range of 5% to 5.25%. In the futures market, fed funds futures continued to price a terminal rate of less than 5%. "I think he's going to be hawkish relative to market pricing," said Jim Caron, head of macro strategies for global fixed income at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.
The slight decline in consumer prices in December will not change the path for the Federal Reserve, as it meets to raise rates Jan. 31 and Feb. 1. CPI fell by 0.01%, as expected by economists, and was up 6.5% from a year ago. Stock futures were higher after the report while Treasury yields fell. Swonk and other economists expect the Fed to raise rates by a half percentage point on Feb. 1. The futures market, however, has been pricing in a quarter point hike.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEarnings season will derail year's early risk-on rally, Peter Boockvar warnsBleakley Financial Group CIO Peter Boockvar on what the latest inflation read means for the market. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Karen Finerman, Dan Nathan and Guy Adami.
They also point to weaker-than-expected wage growth in December's jobs report, as well as other data that reflects lower inflation expectations. Inflation is rolling over, and the Fed is almost done raising interest rates," said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point. Rental market data shows a slowing in rates, but the CPI has not yet reflected it. "Everyone is familiar with the lag that it takes for the data to show up in the CPI," Tilley added.
While some economists anticipate a half point hike after that meeting, traders in the futures market put greater odds on a smaller, 25 basis point hike. A basis point equals 0.01 of a percentage point. "It's pricing 100% chance of a 25 basis point hike, and a 30% chance for an additional 25. "The market is still expecting the Fed to go another 60, almost 70 basis points," he said. Boockvar said the end point for the Fed matters more than if it raises by 25 basis points or 50 when it next meets.
2023 is arriving with plenty of uncertainty, as recession prospects, continued inflation concerns, and the potential for a consumer spending pullback are all clouding forecasts. But corporate capital spending looks to continue to forge ahead, according to the results of the recent CNBC CFO Council Q4 survey. More than one-third of respondents said that they expect their company's capital spending to increase over the next 12 months, while 39% said their capital spending will stay about the same as last year. Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group, said at the Summit that he views corporate capital spending going forward as "bifurcated." Roughly 65% of CFOs responding to the survey said they think inflation has already peaked, while more than 80% are already forecasting a recession for 2023.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRates are going to stay higher for longer, says Bleakley Financial Group's Peter BoockvarPeter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group CIO, and Andres Garcia-Amaya, Zoe Financial CEO, join 'The Exchange' to discuss yesterday's 50 bps Fed rate hike and how investors should position their portfolios heading into the new year.
Here's how the Federal Reserve confused the markets
  + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +6 min
Markets had flip flopped Wednesday afternoon, after the Federal Reserve released its policy statement and new interest rate and economic forecasts. Swonk noted there is agreement among Fed officials to drive rates higher, and most officials forecast an end point for rates above 5% in 2023. Fed funds futures Thursday showed a high rate of 4.89% by next May, still below the Fed's target. Every month that goes by means there's somebody's debt that matures that's going to be needed to be refinanced at a higher rate." With the economy weakening, I think the inflation rate is going to fall faster than most economists do."
Goldilocks and the Federal Reserve
  + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( Steve Liesman | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGoldilocks and the Federal ReserveToo much? The Fed's fight against inflation has drawn criticism from all sides. Some Fed-watching economists think the central bank will go too far in its quantitative tightening and plunge the US economy into a recession. Others think the Fed hasn't raised rates enough to bring inflation under control and worry it will stop hiking too early. CNBC's Steve Liesman moderates a conversation with Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group Chief Investment Officer, and Diane Swonk, KPMG Chief Economist, at the 2022 CNBC CFO Council Summit on November 30, 2022.
Why the Fed may finally loosen its grip
  + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +4 min
The Fed should be pleased that its aggressive rate hikes in the past few months are having their desired effect, and they can ease up a bit. After four giant three-quarter-point hikes in a row, all signs point to Fed Chair Jay Powell announcing a half-point bump later this month. BIG PICTUREIt’s taken most of the year, but the economy appears to have made it over the mountain of inflation and aggressive rate hikes, according to Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Financial Group. But while 200,000 is nothing to sniff at, it’s still not soft enough for the Fed to pause its rate hikes. However, markets may cheer the fact that it’s low enough for the Fed to hike at a less aggressive pace than we’ve seen in recent months.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market hasn't priced in a recession yet, says Bleakley's Peter BoockvarPeter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial Group, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss the holiday boosted market rally and his outlook for a recession.
But messaging from Fed officials this week has brought Wall Street back down to earth. Tech layoffs don’t mean impending recessionA series of high-profile layoffs have rattled Big Tech this month. The series of high-profile layoff announcements prompted fears that the labor market was weakening and that a recession could be around the corner. Those fears aren’t unwarranted: The Federal Reserve is actively working to slow economic growth and tighten financial conditions to rebalance the white-hot labor market. “The main problem in the labor market is still that labor demand is too strong, not too weak,” they concluded.
By 2025 or 2026, the United States may hit a bleak milestone: Federal interest payments could exceed the country’s entire defense budget, according to Moody’s Analytics. The Fed kept interest rates very low to stimulate growth (and encourage inflation) and investors around the world clamored to buy US debt. But White of Moody’s notes that gross interest payments include interest the government pays to itself and said net interest is the more relevant category to watch here. In a best-case scenario, the United States grows its way out of the debt mess, with the economy expanding more rapidly than interest payments. With interest rates going up, the sovereign bond bubble is unwinding,” Boockvar said.
Peter Boockvar digs in on today's market action
  + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Melissa Lee | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPeter Boockvar digs in on today's market actionBleakley Financial Group's Peter Boockvar on earnings and today's market action. With CNBC's Brian Sullivan and the Fast Money traders, Tim Seymour, Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Julie Biel.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe'll have to watch and see for any dislocations in the Treasury market, says Bleakley's BoockvarSandy Villere, Villere Balanced Fund co-portfolio manager, and Peter Boockvar, Bleakley Financial chief investment officer, join 'The Exchange' to discuss if there's real contagion risk in England, how England's recent news impacts Villere's thesis and more.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo investment managers give their thoughts on the health of the global economyPeter Boockvar, Chief Investment Officer at Bleakley Financial Group, and Josh Wein, Portfolio Manager at Hennessy Funds, join Worldwide Exchange to discuss the markets on the heels of JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon's comments about the economy.
Stocks fell on Friday as traders evaluated September’s jobs report, which showed the unemployment rate continuing to decline and sparked an increase in interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 682 points, or 2.3%, to 29,264.39. The Nasdaq Composite slid 3.9% to 10,651.75, which is less than 1% above its low of the year. Friday’s jobs numbers showed the U.S. economy added 263,000 jobs in September, slightly below a Dow Jones estimate of 275,000. Friday’s losses trimmed the gains for what started out as a big comeback week for stocks.
Navigating rates and volatility
  + stars: | 2022-09-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNavigating rates and volatilityBleakley Financial Group's Peter Boockvar, Seymour Asset Management's Tim Seymour and ProShares Simeon Hyman join CNBC's Frank Holland and the 'CNBC Special: Markets in Turmoil' to discuss market reaction to the Fed's latest rate increase and where they see stocks heading for the rest of the year.
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPace of rate hikes is putting the economy and markets into a 'danger zone,' says Peter BoockvarBleakley Financial Group's Peter Boockvar on yesterday's Fed rate decision. With CNBC's Melissa Lee and the Fast Money traders, Karen Finerman, Bonawyn Eison, Dan Nathan and Brian Kelly.
London (CNN Business) When the Federal Reserve started hiking interest rates to combat decades-high inflation, Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the central bank could increase borrowing costs without inflicting too much damage on the economy. Breaking it down: The central bank didn't go as hard as some investors thought it might. The Fed's main interest rate is now set between 3% and 3.25%. Plus, many factors pushing up inflation numbers — such as the war in Ukraine and drought conditions — are outside the central bank's control. Central banks have "no choice" but to increase interest rates in an effort to combat inflation, she added.
“We feel the economy is very strong and will be able to withstand tighter monetary policy,” Powell said in March. Breaking it down: The central bank didn’t go as hard as some investors thought it might. Yet tucked into the central bank’s projections were signs that it plans to stay tough, even if it means pushing the economy into rocky territory. The Fed’s main interest rate is now set between 3% and 3.25%. Plus, many factors pushing up inflation numbers — such as the war in Ukraine and drought conditions — are outside the central bank’s control.
That is, the Fed will hike and hold, not hike and cut as many in the markets had been forecasting. The September CNBC Fed Survey shows the average respondent believes the Fed will hike 0.75 percentage point, or 75 basis points, at Wednesday's meeting, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.1%. The new peak rate forecast represents a nearly 40 basis-point increase from the July survey. Ryding sees a potential need for the Fed to hike as high as 5%, from the current range of 2.25%-2.5%. Respondents put the recession probability in the U.S. over the next 12 months at 52%, little changed from the July survey.
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