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☆ Key U.S. credit metrics that will inform the Fed's policy moves
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Safiyah Riddle | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Just how freely credit is flowing - and is likely to flow in the near term - is a key input. A valuable guide to that is the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices (SLOOS), a quarterly survey of commercial banks that Fed officials consider as they debate policy moves. The Fed's SLOOS splits credit demand into several main categories, including firms of varying sizes for commercial and industrial loans, commercial and residential real estate and other consumer loans such as credit cards and auto loans. Demand for commercial real estate loans plummeted as remote work diminished the value of office space. By contrast, demand for credit card lending dropped more modestly, propped up by robust consumer spending and healthy household balance sheets.

Persons: Safiyah Riddle, Dan Burns Organizations: Federal Reserve, Senior, Bank Lending, Fed, Silicon Valley Bank, Securities, Dallas Fed, Thomson Locations: Silicon, U.S

☆ Interest rates just went up again: What the latest Fed move means for you
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-26 | by ( Jeanne Sahadi | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

And the Fed’s preferred inflation measure — the core Personal Consumption Expenditures Index — inched down to 4.6% in its latest reading. Credit cards remain very expensiveWhen Fed rates go up, so do credit card rates. So it’s not surprising that card rates in the past year have been trending at around 20-year highs. As of July 19, the average credit card interest rate is 20.44%, down slightly from the 20.58% recorded the week before, according to Bankrate.com. Second-quarter data from the Fed shows the average rate for them is 22.16%.

Persons: ”, Greg McBride, Michele Raneri, you’ll, it’s, Matt Schulz, Cardholders, Freddie Mac, they’d, McBride, Anna Bahney Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Consumer, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Fed, LendingTree Locations: New York

☆ Morning Bid: Earnings, China hold spotlight ahead of big rates decisions
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom WestbrookEarnings and hope for a turning in China's markets are the prelude to this week's big central bank decisions. The corporate performance and outlook risk disappointing markets that are increasingly priced for a "soft-landing" slowdown in both growth and inflation. In the Asia session investors cheered pledges of support in the readout from an earlier-than-expected Politburo meeting in China -- though not too loudly. The Eurozone bank lending survey is also out on Tuesday and can give a view on the health of borrowing ahead of Fed and European Central Bank meetings, which are both expected to deliver rate hikes. The yen was steady in Asia as investors weigh whether the Bank of Japan will tweak policy on Friday.

Persons: Tom Westbrook, Robert Half, Archer, Daniel Midlands, Morgan Stanley, Dalian Wanda, Sam Holmes Organizations: Microsoft, Google, Visa, General Electric, Dow, chipmaker Texas, Unilever, Shanghai, Traders, Dalian, Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, EssilorLuxottica, Texas Instruments, Verizon, General Motors, ADM, Spotify, Thomson Locations: United States, London, Paris, Asia, China, Hong Kong

Euro zone interest rates have risen 400 basis points in the last year to 3.5%, their highest in 22 years, and are now close to peaking as headline inflation cools and the economy weakens. 1/ How much will the ECB hike rates? "The ECB will hike again and anything else would be a major surprise," said RBC Capital Markets global macro strategist Peter Schaffrik. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics3/ When does the ECB expect core inflation to fall? Euro zone business activity stalled in June as a manufacturing recession deepened and a previously resilient services sector barely grew.

Persons: Silvia Ardagna, Peter Schaffrik, Christine, Lagarde, Massimiliano Maxia, Reinhard Cluse, Ruben Segura, BofA, Philip Lane, BofA's Segura, Naomi Rovnick, Stefano Rebaudo, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Kripa Jayaram, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Barclays, ECB, Capital, Reuters, Allianz Global Investors, U.S . Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, UBS, Bank, Thomson Locations: Cayuela, Europe, London, Milan

☆ Take Five: School's (not) out for summer
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON, July 21 (Reuters) - The peak holiday season is gearing up, but school's not quite out for summer in financial markets. Also in focus are earnings from some of the massive tech and growth stocks that have led markets higher this year. Reuters Graphics2/ SUMMER READINGBefore they go on their summer break, ECB policymakers have a well-flagged rate hike to deliver. Rate-setters' summer reading list just got longer. Second-quarter earnings are expected to decrease 9.2% from a year earlier, according to I/B/E/S data from Refinitiv, with aggregate earnings likely to be weighed down by poor performance from energy companies.

Persons: school's, Ira Iosebashvili, Kevin Buckland, Naomi Rovnick, Alun John, Dhara, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda's, Shinichi Uchida, Uchida, Ueda, Stocks, it's, Dhara Ranasinghe, Muralikumar Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, Reserve, Microsoft, Reuters, ECB, Bank of Japan, Barclays, People's Party, Socialist Workers ' Party, Thomson Locations: Spanish, Ira, New York, Tokyo, London, Europe, SPAIN, Spain

"I am worried because we are in a deep real estate crisis. And the real estate crisis needs clear, structured and downright radical steps to fix it," Mattner said. For years, Germany's property market has been seen as a safe haven, becoming a major draw for foreign investors. Recent data shows the stress the property sector is facing as the European Central Bank hikes interest rates, with little respite in sight. The fall is "catastrophic," said Andreas Beulich, head of the Federal Association of Independent Real Estate and Housing Companies.

Persons: Kai Pfaffenbach, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Andreas Mattner, Mattner, Tim, Oliver Mueller, Mueller, Scholz, Danyal, Andreas Beulich, Mathias Duesterdick, ”, Andreas Naujoks, Simone Zapke, Emma, Victoria Farr, Matthias Inverardi, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, German Property Federation, German Construction Industry Federation, Reuters Graphics, European Central Bank, Federal Association of Independent, Housing Companies, Centrum Group, ECB, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Germany's, Europe's, Kai Pfaffenbach FRANKFURT, Baden, United States, Sweden

☆ World Bank chief Banga unveils new plans to boost lending 'firepower'
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

July 18 (Reuters) - World Bank President Ajay Banga unveiled new plans on Tuesday to stretch the bank's balance sheet and help countries tackle climate change and other challenges, but said a capital increase would still eventually be needed. The new steps, still being discussed with shareholder countries, come on top of initial steps approved in April that will boost World Bank lending by up to $50 billion over the next decade. "We are building a better bank, but eventually we will need a bigger bank." It proposes to absorb more risk and expand lending by widening conditions for callable capital - money pledged by governments but not currently "paid-in." And it plans to expand very low or zero-interest lending, including through a new $6 billion crisis facility set up for the poorest countries through the International Development Association.

Persons: Ajay Banga, Banga, David Malpass, Janet Yellen, Andrea Shalal, Sonali Paul Organizations: Mastercard, World Bank, Bank, Treasury, International Development Association, Thomson Locations: Banga, Gandhinagar, India, U.S

☆ Wall Street is getting more optimistic the U.S. can avoid a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street has gone from more than a year of worrying about a recession to thinking that one actually may not happen. At this point, the outgoing executive said, it doesn't even matter much if the U.S. hits a technical recession. "What matters is if you have a deep recession that changes the unemployment, and that's not happening," he said. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is among those who think the economy can avoid a recession even with 5 percentage points worth of rate hikes since March 2022. Finally, those expecting a "soft landing" for the economy rose to 68%, against 21% of those who see a hard landing.

Persons: Morgan Stanley, James Gorman, CNBC's Leslie Picker, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Spencer Hill, Hill, Gorman, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee Organizations: Citi, Reserve, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Bank of America Global Fund, Survey Locations: U.S

☆ NY Fed report finds Americans increasingly facing borrowing headwinds
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Philippe Wojazer/IllustrationJuly 17 (Reuters) - Americans are increasingly getting shot down when they seek out loans, new data from the New York Fed, released Monday, said. The bank said that the overall rejection rate for credit applicants rose to its highest level since June 2018, and stood at 21.8%, from 17.3% in February. Rejection rates for credit cards, credit limit increases also gained ground. The rejection rate for mortgages stood at 13.2% in June from 10% in February, while the rejection rate for mortgage refinancing jumped to 20.8% last month, from 16.3% in the prior survey. The surge in home lending costs has caused Americans to cut back on borrowing there: The New York Fed reported in May that during the first quarter demand for mortgages fell even as overall household debt levels ticked higher.

Persons: Philippe Wojazer, —, Michael S, Aurora Ellis Organizations: American Express, REUTERS, New York Fed, York, Consumer, Thomson Locations: February’s

☆ The odds of a recession in the next year have fallen to just 20%, Goldman Sachs says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-17 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Goldman Sachs said the odds of a recession in the next 12 months have fallen to 20% from 25% earlier. In a note on Monday, the bank's chief economist, Jan Hatzius, put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at 20%, down from an earlier estimate of 25%. Meanwhile, Goldman is also putting less emphasis on the inverted yield curve, a traditionally reliable indicator of an approaching recession. But in today's cycle, it may be misguided, due in part to the possibility that the Fed may cut rates to respond to slowing inflation, not a recession, Hatzius said. For the US, the bank forecast only one remaining interest rate hike, in line with what a majority of investors expect.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Hatzius, Goldman Organizations: Service Locations: Wall, Silicon, Brazil, Poland, Chile, —

But it could begin to undercut arguments for more hikes beyond that, and may shift the Fed's relentlessly hawkish tone. That ratio has dropped as the Fed's rate hikes have slowed labor market demand, and in May hit its lowest level since November 2021 at around 1.6-to-1. If June's auto sales data is any indication, though, a marked slowdown does not appear imminent. Last month's annualized sales rate came in at nearly 15.7 million vehicles, well above industry-watcher estimates. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsBANK DATA: Released every Thursday and FridayTo some degree the Fed wants credit to become more expensive and less available.

Persons: Jerome Powell, delinquencies, Howard Schneider, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reuters Graphics Reuters, Fed, Labor, Survey, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: U.S

July 12 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Figures on Tuesday showed surprisingly strong bank lending in June, helped by central bank efforts to support an economy that has struggled to rebound from pandemic restrictions as expected. On a macro level, the U.S. dollar's weakness continues to help fuel the optimism across Asian markets. New Zealand's central bank is expected to keep its cash rate - already at a 14-year high and the highest in the developed world - at 5.50% on Wednesday and leave it there for the rest of the year. But with inflation running well above target, rates markets are leaning toward one more 25 basis point hike by year end.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Goldman Sachs, Foxconn, Deepa Babington Organizations: Reserve Bank of New, Global, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, U.S, China, Japan, New, Zealand, India

But tempting as it is to buy into that - leading indicators have been flashing red for months, as yet to no avail - we are probably not at that stage just yet. "Most analysts have no choice but to have their initial bias gravitate to the mean or median range of these leading indicators," he said. Reuters ImageReuters ImageLONG AND VARIABLE LAGSOne of the most reliable recession indicators is the spread between three-month and 10-year U.S. bond yields. Reuters ImageReuters ImageAgain, if the economy isn't in recession by the end of the year, this time it really is different. The signals sent by leading indicators recently have been pretty clear - it just remains to be seen whether they will be accurate.

Persons: Jerome Powell, LEI, Eric Basmajian, Milton Friedman's, payrolls, Jamie McGeever, Jan Harvey Organizations: Federal, Reuters, EPB Research, National Bureau of Economic Research, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Ukraine

☆ This classic recession indicator just hit its lowest level since 1981—here's what it means for you
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Ryan Ermey | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

So when the yield curve does make headlines, it's generally because it's setting off some alarm bells among market watchers. In general terms, that means short-term bonds are paying higher interest rates than long-term bonds. An inverted yield curve is a classic signal that a recession is on the horizon. An inverted yield curve makes the math unprofitable for banks in many cases. But in another sense, an inverted yield curve presaging a recession is sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Persons: It's, Megan Horneman, Sam Stovall, doesn't, Stovall, Banks Organizations: Verdence Capital Advisors, Federal Reserve

☆ The Fed's own economists don't know if the US will escape a recession or not. They say it's basically a coin toss.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's own economists aren't sure if the US economy will suffer a recession or not. They believe it's a virtual coin toss whether there's a mild downturn or none at all. Even the Federal Reserve's own economists say it's basically a coin toss, the minutes from the Fed's June meeting show. The central bank's staff predicted that banks would keep pulling back on lending, tightening financial conditions and causing real gross domestic product (GDP) to decline modestly for the next two quarters. They also tend to damp demand, lift unemployment, and pull down asset prices, increasing the risk of a recession.

Persons: —, it's, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Fed Locations: Silicon

☆ Wall Street Recession: Stock Market Crash Predictions Are Wrong
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Wall Street analysts and economists have always had a tendency to fall in love with their forecasts. This stubbornness helps explain why Wall Street is having an exceptionally hard time letting go of the idea that a recession is just around the corner. Despite the year-plus in which analysts have been arguing that a recession is imminent, none of the arguments behind the predictions stand up to scrutiny. Bear growlsOver the past year, Wall Street pessimists' reasons for an approaching recession have shifted. The drag from the US housing market is fading.

Persons: doomsayers, it's, Neil Dutta Organizations: Street, Federal Reserve, Fed, Macro

☆ Analysis: Bond markets reckon a central bank policy error is on the cards
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

"We are positioned for a very big bond rally, and we think that risky assets are completely underestimating the risk of a recession or something nasty happening," he added. (.MERW0G1)An early sign that the bond outlook is improving came last week with data showing euro zone business growth stalled in June. In response, German bond yields, which move inversely to prices, posted their second biggest daily drop since March. But highlighting how hard economic data has become to read, higher-than-expected U.S. first quarter growth and German inflation sent yields surging on Thursday. Major central banks fighting a surge in inflation have collectively raised borrowing costs by over 3,750 bps since September 2021.

Persons: Jason Reed, Mike Riddell, Viraj Patel, Vanda's Patel, BoE, Urban, Jill Hirzel, Dhara Ranasinghe, Harry Robertson, Catherine Evans Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, Bond, U.S, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reuters, Allianz Global Investors, Vanda Research, Deutsche Bank, General Investment Management, Insight Investment, Thomson Locations: Washington, hawkish, Canada, Britain, Norway, Sintra, Germany, United States, U.S

☆ Brazil central bank improves 2023 GDP growth forecast to 2.0%
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BRASILIA, June 29 (Reuters) - Brazil's central bank joined on Thursday a wave of recent upward revisions for the country's economic growth this year, guided by a solid first quarter boosted by the agriculture sector. In its quarterly inflation report, the central bank forecasts a 2.0% expansion in gross domestic product (GDP) for 2023, up from the 1.2% estimate in March. The figure came slightly below the 2.18% growth expected by private economists in a weekly survey conducted by the bank and remains weaker than last year's 2.9% GDP expansion. The central bank emphasized that the outlook ahead points to an economic slowdown as the cumulative effects of domestic monetary policy and the influence of global growth deceleration take hold. Regarding bank lending, the central bank now anticipates a 7.7% increase in 2023, up from the 7.6% reported before.

Persons: Marcela Ayres, Steven Grattan Organizations: Thomson Locations: BRASILIA

☆ Sharp slowdown in growth of bank lending for euro zone and Germany forecast
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Lending to businesses and households in the 20-nation euro zone will expand 2.1% in 2023 and 1.7% in 2024, muted increases after a 14-year high of 5% in 2022, EY said in its lending forecast published Monday. The euro zone meanwhile dipped into recession earlier this year. "While the downturn is expected to be very shallow and short-lived, European markets continue to face high inflation and an unprecedented rise in interest rates. Mortgage lending is a particular area of weakness, with lending set to grow 1.4% in 2023, down from 4.9% in 2022. The ECB's latest lending survey, published in May, also found that lending growth to businesses and households slowed.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, EY, Sinead Cruise, Tom Sims, Elaine Hardcastle Organizations: REUTERS, EY, Reuters, Central Bank, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Europe, Germany

☆ Premarket stocks: Why it might be time to get optimistic about the market
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-26 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

US stocks, meanwhile, have managed to pull up from their recent bear market into bull territory. Still, there’s good reason for investors to be optimistic, says Indrani De, head of global investment research at FTSE Russell. That makes sense, since tech and energy stocks have largely been driving markets upward over the last few weeks. For instance, leading venture capital firm Sequoia Capital held just more than $1 billion at SVB, according to the FDIC document. The FDIC document shows that Circle held $3.3 billion at SVB, a figure that the stablecoin company previously disclosed.

Persons: New York CNN —, Indrani De, Bell, De, froth, Matt Egan, SVB, Zhipin Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, FTSE Russell, Energy, Communications Services, Technology, Tech, Consumer Staples, FDIC, Bloomberg, Silicon Valley Bank, Bloomberg News, Sequoia Capital, PayPal, Google, Apple, Internet Locations: New York, Russia, disinflation, Silicon, Beijing

The World Bank and others also said they would start adding clauses to lending terms that allow vulnerable states to suspend debt repayments when natural disaster strikes. Specifically, for the first time, the document acknowledged the potential need for richer countries to provide fresh money to multilateral development institutions like the World Bank. Another first was in the explicit target for multilateral development banks to leverage "at least" $100 billion a year in private sector capital when they lend. All eyes now turn to more traditional events later in the year, including the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings, a G20 meeting in September and the COP28 climate talks in Dubai. Persaud said his focus would be on making sure the plan to scale up multilateral development bank lending was in place by the time of annual meetings in October, and that pilot work began on reducing the cost of capital for developing countries.

Persons: Macron, Mia Mottley, Avinash Persaud, What's, Persaud, Teresa Anderson, They've, Sonia Dunlop, Simon Jessop, Leigh Thomas, Tommy Reggiori Wilkes, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: Global, Pact, Reuters, World Bank, International Maritime Organisation, Paris Summit, Climate Justice, ActionAid, International Monetary Fund, Bank, Thomson Locations: Barbados, PARIS, Bridgetown, Zambia, Paris, Dubai

WASHINGTON, June 21 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said it is critical that banks have high levels of capital, but regulators must be mindful of the tradeoffs in ordering large reserves. Powell told the House Financial Services Committee that the Fed is considering multiple proposals on bank oversight, and struck a balanced tone on new capital requirements, saying healthy cushions are of "central importance," particularly for the largest global banks. We want banks to be able to lend in good and bad times," he said. Powell said the Fed has a "significant number of proposals in the works" on bank oversight, but none have been finalized or brought to the board for a vote yet. He also noted that higher capital requirements do come with tradeoffs, and the Fed will have to strike a balance between higher capital and how it could hinder bank lending.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Pete Schroeder, Mark Porter, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal, Financial Services Committee, Fed, Thomson

☆ At recovery summit, UK's Sunak to unveil major Ukraine support
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

At the beginning of the two-day Ukraine recovery conference in London, Sunak will outline a package which will also include 240 million pounds ($306 million) of bilateral assistance and an expansion of British International Investment in Ukraine. "I'm proud that today we're announcing a multi-year commitment to support Ukraine's economy, and over the next three years, we will provide loan guarantees worth $3 billion." The United States is also expected to set out "a new, robust" assistance package for Ukraine on Wednesday. His office said he would also launch the London Conference Framework for War Risk Insurance at the summit and that some major companies had already signed up to the so-called Ukraine Business Compact, a statement of support for Ukraine's recovery. ($1 = 0.7851 pounds)Reporting by Elizabeth Piper Editing by Alexandra HudsonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Rishi Sunak, Sunak, Ajay Banga, Elizabeth Piper, Alexandra Hudson Organizations: British, Presidential Press Service, REUTERS, Bank, British International Investment, World Bank Group, Ukraine, Wednesday, Insurance, World Bank, European Commission, United Nations, Alexandra Hudson Our, Thomson Locations: Hiroshima, Japan, Ukraine, London, Britain, Russia, United States, Ukrainian

☆ FACTBOX BOJ's next steps and triggers for policy shift
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Leika Kihara | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

While Ueda has stressed the BOJ will be in no rush to dial back stimulus, the central bank is dropping clues on possible triggers of a policy shift. ABANDON OR TWEAK YIELD TARGETIn ending YCC, the first step will be to abandon or modify the 10-year yield target. One idea would be to widen the band around the yield target, now set at 50 basis points on either side. TWEAKING FORWARD GUIDANCEBefore tweaking the yield cap, the BOJ could drop more hints of a policy shift such as by modifying forward guidance. Big upward revisions to its inflation forecasts at a July quarterly review would signal the BOJ's conviction that conditions for a policy shift are falling into place.

Persons: Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda, YCC, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan

The Fed is scheduled to release its policy statement and new quarterly economic projections at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT). POLICY COMPROMISEData since the last Fed meeting in early May has left policymakers with a tough set of signals to read, and ample room for debate. The decision won't mean rate hikes are in for an extended pause, or - a point Powell is likely to emphasize - that rate cuts are anticipated anytime soon. The Fed's last set of quarterly projections anticipated the benchmark overnight interest rate would only move down by the end of 2024 as inflation also declined - movements that keep the inflation-adjusted rate of interest roughly the same. A true "pivot" towards looser policy was only seen occurring in 2025, when the policy rate was projected by year's end to decline more than inflation.

Persons: Blerina Uruci, Rowe Price, Jerome Powell, Powell, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Rowe Price Associates, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S

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