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☆ CNBC Daily Open: Goolsbee’s ‘golden path’ is still visible
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

David Paul Morris | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. What you need to know todayThe bottom lineLast month's sudden surge in Treasury yields and oil prices — both of which tend to suppress investors' appetite for stocks — looks to be ending. As Treasury yields serve as the benchmark for interest rates on loans and cash investments, sinking yields generally benefit rate-sensitive companies more. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee told CNBC, "Because of some of the strangeness of this moment, there is the possibility of the golden path ... that we got inflation down without a recession."

Persons: Goolsbee, David Paul Morris, they're, WTI's, that's, Alastair Pinder, Austan Goolsbee, — Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Treasury, Big Tech, Amazon, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, U.S . Federal, HSBC, Chicago Federal Locations: Moran , Wyoming, That's, Israel

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - If the notorious 'term premium' is evaporating again, then last month's bond rout may just have been a nightmare. "If that's coming from term premium and it's tightening, then we have got to take that into account." As Summers estimated this week, a term premium just back at 60-year averages would put it at 150bps - 130bps above current levels. Morgan Stanley estimates an additional near $1 trillion in gross debt sales from G7 governments are coming down the pike next year. Morgan Stanley chart on G7 debt sales in 2024Reuters GraphicsThe opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Christopher Waller, Larry Summers, selloff, York Fed's, Jerome Powell, Austan Goolsbee, Lisa Cook, Summers, Morgan Stanley, Mike Dolan, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Fed, ., The, NY, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Chicago Fed, Congress, Thomson Locations: York, midyear, 150bps

☆ Treasury yields inch higher as investors weigh monetary policy outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by more than 2 basis points at 4.594%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last over 3 basis points higher at 4.953%. U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly on Wednesday as investors considered the path ahead for monetary policy as they looked to comments from Federal Reserve officials. Investors considered the outlook for interest rates and the economy, including whether the Federal Reserve will still be able to achieve a soft landing. He and other Fed officials are scheduled to make remarks this week, with Powell expected to speak on Wednesday and Thursday.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, CNBC's, Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, Investors, Chicago Fed, Fed

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Strange, but good, things are happening in markets and the economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Spencer Platt | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield fell around 10 basis points to 4.569% and the 2-year yield slipped 3 basis points to 4.915%. As Treasury yields serve as the benchmark for interest rates on loans and cash investments, sinking yields generally benefit rate-sensitive companies more. Both the economy and markets have truly acted in strange, unprecedented ways ever since the pandemic.

Persons: Spencer Platt, they're, WTI's, that's, Alastair Pinder, Austan Goolsbee, — Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Getty, CNBC, West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Treasury, Big Tech, Amazon, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, U.S . Federal, HSBC, Chicago Federal Locations: New York City, That's, Israel

☆ S&P 500, Nasdaq score longest win streak in 2 years on rates view
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Fellow Governor Michelle Bowman said she took the recent Gross Domestic Product number as evidence the economy not only "remained strong," but might have gained speed and requires a higher Fed policy rate. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 56.94 points, or 0.17%, to 34,152.8; the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 12.40 points, or 0.28 %, at 4,378.38 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 121.08 points, or 0.90 %, at 13,639.86. The S&P 500 (.SPX) scored its seventh straight day in the green, with the Nasdaq (.IXIC) recording its eighth straight advance, the longest such streak for each index in two years. The Dow gained for a seventh straight session, its longest since a 13-session run in July. The S&P 500 posted 15 new 52-week highs and three new lows while the Nasdaq recorded 48 new highs and 145 new lows.

Persons: CME's, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Powell, Ken Polcari, Brendan McDermid, Dow, Lorie Logan, Chuck Mikolajczak, Richard Chang Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, Kace Capital Advisors, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Microsoft, Apple, Dow Jones, . Energy, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, Uber Technologies, NYSE, Thomson Locations: U.S, Boca Raton , Florida, New York City

☆ Dollar bounces after sharp selloff, weak data hurts euro
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. one dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. "If you look at the percentage of currencies that have been down versus the dollar over the last 26 weeks, it was approaching 100%, and data also showed very long dollar positioning ... Traders are now pricing in only a slim chance of a further interest rate increase by the Fed and see three 25-basis-point rate cuts by next November. The euro fell 0.20% to $1.0695 after data showed a larger-than-expected fall in German industrial production in September. The yen softened to 151.74 per dollar last week, edging closer to October 2022 lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Marc Chandler, Jerome Powell, Chester Ntonifor, Chandler, Powell, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Fiona Cincotta, Karen Brettell, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Paul Simao, Mark Heinrich Our Organizations: REUTERS, U.S ., Australian, greenback, Fed, Bannockburn Global, BCA Research, Traders, . Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, PMI, Index, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, U.S, Bannockburn, New York, London, Singapore

☆ S&P 500, Nasdaq poised for longest win streak in 2 years on rate hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Both Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also refused to rule out rate cuts. The pullback in yields helped lift megacap growth names such as Microsoft (MSFT.O), up 1.5%, and Apple (AAPL.O), up 1.7%, as the biggest boosts to both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Also due to speak on Tuesday was New York Fed President John Williams. The S&P 500 (.SPX) is on pace for its seventh straight day in the green, with the Nasdaq (.IXIC) on track to rise for the eighth day in a row, the longest such streak for each index in two years. The S&P 500 posted 13 new 52-week highs and three new lows while the Nasdaq recorded 43 new highs and 132 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Jerome Powell, Powell, Ken Polcari, John Williams, Dow, Amruta Khandekar, Maju Samuel, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, Kace Capital Advisors, Microsoft, Apple, Dow Jones, Energy, New York Fed, Uber Technologies, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Boca Raton , Florida, Bengaluru

"This was an outstanding quarter ... this big blowout number," Waller told an economic data seminar at the St. Louis Fed. So this is something we are keeping a very close eye on when we think about policy going forward." It's clearly calming down," with recent employment gains more in line with the levels seen before the coronavirus pandemic, Waller said. The Fed is in the process of weighing that and other data to determine whether to hike the benchmark policy rate again. However neither Goolsbee nor Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who spoke to Bloomberg Television on Tuesday, ruled out further Fed rate increases.

Persons: Christopher Waller, Waller, Louis Fed, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Lisa Cook, Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Howard Schneider, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Michael Derby, Ann Saphir, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve, St, Ohio Bankers League, Fed, New York Fed, Atlanta, CNBC, Chicago Fed, Minneapolis, Bloomberg Television, Thomson Locations: U.S

[1/2] FILE PHOTO: The London Stock Exchange Group offices are seen in the City of London, Britain, December 29, 2017. MSCI's gauge of global stock performance (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.05%, while the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) lost 0.06%. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index rose 0.332% to 105.61, with the euro down 0.31% to $1.0682. Treasury yields slid, having unwound some of their rally last week after the Fed left rates unchanged following a policy meeting. The two-year's yield, which reflects interest rate expectations, fell 1.3 basis points to 4.928%, while the 10-year slipped 7.5 basis points at 4.587%.

Persons: Toby Melville, Jerome Powell, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Rick Meckler, we've, Michael Hewson, Brent, Tom Wilson, Tom Westbrook, Ankur Banerjee, Lincoln, Kim Coghill, Christina Fincher, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, NEW, Federal Reserve, Minneapolis, Chicago, Cherry Lane Investments, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Reserve Bank of Australia, Treasury, Fed, CMC, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Europe, U.S, New Vernon , New Jersey, Asia, Pacific, Japan, London, Singapore

☆ Dollar bounces after sharp selloff, euro dented by weak data
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Karen Brettell | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. one dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. The dollar index which tracks the U.S. unit against six main peers, was up 0.37% at 105.64. If that continues, he added, attention will turn to how long to keep interest rates at current levels. The euro fell 0.37% to $1.0677 after data showed a larger-than-expected fall in German industrial production in September. The yen softened to 151.74 per dollar last week, edging closer to October 2022 lows that spurred several rounds of dollar-selling intervention.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Jerome Powell, Marc Chandler, Chester Ntonifor, Chandler, Powell, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Fiona Cincotta, Carol Kong, Karen Brettell, Alun John, Ankur Banerjee, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, U.S ., Australian, Fed, Bannockburn Global, BCA Research, Traders, Minneapolis, . Chicago Fed, PMI, Index, Reserve Bank of Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: U.S, Bannockburn, New York, Tokyo, London, Singapore

Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 27, 2023. Market participants will parse commentary from Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams later on Tuesday for more clues on the central bank's interest rate path. Among the 11 major S&P 500 sectors, energy (.SPNY) led declines tracking a 2% fall in crude prices on mixed economic data from China. Declining issues outnumbered advancers for a 2.30-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and for a 1.55-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded three new 52-week highs and no new low, while the Nasdaq recorded 12 new highs and 48 new lows.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Dow Jones, Neel Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, Sam Stovall, Christopher Waller, John Williams, Jerome Powell's, Stovall, Wall, advancers, Amruta Khandekar, Maju Samuel Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Chicago Fed, CFRA Research, Treasury, U.S, Fed, New York Fed, Dow Jones, Uber Technologies, Mongodb, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Bengaluru

☆ Fed’s Goolsbee says 'golden path' of a huge drop in inflation without a recession is still possible
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"Because of some of the strangeness of this moment, there is the possibility of the golden path ... that we got inflation down without a recession," Goolsbee said on CNBC's "Squawk Box." "The fastest drop in the inflation rate in any year was 1982," Goolsbee said. So we're making progress on the inflation rate." Goolsbee stressed that accomplishing such a "golden path" against a historic surge in inflation won't be an easy task. The Fed president said the central bank will be data dependent going forward, echoing Chair Jerome Powell's comments last week.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, we've, Jerome Powell's, Powell Organizations: Chicago Federal, Federal, Market, CNBC PRO Locations: hasn't

☆ Fed is making progress on inflation, Goolsbee says
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"Over the next couple of months, we might equal the fastest drop in inflation in the last century," Goolsbee said in an interview with broadcaster CNBC. "So we're making progress on the inflation rate. The term premium is the added compensation investors expect for owning longer-term debt and is measured using financial models. Higher yields and more broadly tightening financial conditions help the Fed by tamping down growth and cooling inflation. If that's coming from term premium and it's tightening, then we have got to take that into account," Goolsbee said.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goolsbee, I've, Lorie Logan, Lindsay Dunsmuir, Andrew Cawthorne, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Dallas, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite notch longest streak of gains in two years
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( Manav Tanneeru | Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

The S&P 500 index climbed for the seventh day in a row, its longest streak of gains since November 2021, when the benchmark index rose for eight straight sessions. The S&P 500 gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.9%. That’s helped stocks rally this month, after the S&P 500 in October logged its longest streak of monthly declines since 2020. The 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.57% on Tuesday, compared to Monday’s close of 4.66%. Amazon shares gained 2.1%, Meta Platforms increased 1% and Apple climbed 1.4%.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, That’s, Datadog, Jerome Powell Organizations: New, New York CNN, Wall, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed, CNBC, Treasury, Tech, Microsoft, Apple, West Texas, Halliburton, Chevron, ExxonMobil Locations: New York, China

☆ Chicago Fed President: 'Golden path' of bringing inflation down without a recession still possible
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChicago Fed President: 'Golden path' of bringing inflation down without a recession still possibleChicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the Fed's inflation fight, the state of the economy, interest rate path outlook, and more.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Chicago, Chicago Fed

Powell, however, added the economy's strength and continued tight labor markets could warrant further Federal Reserve interest rate increases. Third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are now estimated to grow at 1.6% compared with expectations of a 2.2% increase last week, LSEG data showed. Yields on the 2-year note, which best reflects short-term interest rate expectations, fell , while that on the 10-year note edged higher to 4.9215%, near the 5% level last seen in 2007. Communications services (.SPLRCL) and information technology (.SPLRCT) led gains amongst the major S&P 500 sectors. On the earnings front, Blackstone (BX.N) slipped 6.0% as the world's largest private equity firm's third-quarter distributable earnings fell more than expected due to a decline in asset sales in its real estate business.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Powell's, CME's, Powell, Chris Zaccarelli, Russell Hackmann, Austan Goolsbee, Atlanta's Raphael Bostic, Philadelphia's Patrick Harker, Shubham Batra, Shashwat Chauhan, Dhanya Ann Thoppil, Saumyadeb Chakrabarty, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Netflix, Dow, Nasdaq, Economic, of New, Traders, Independent, Alliance ., Hackmann Wealth Partners, Investors, Chicago Fed, Dow Jones, Communications, Blackstone, Lam Research, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, of New York, United States, Britain, France, Bengaluru

☆ Morning Bid: To 5% and beyond, bond yields soar
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The company earnings picture, meantime, was mixed to sour over the past 24 hours in both the U.S. and Europe. Despite decent demand at a typically awkward 20-year bond auction on Wednesday, yields continued to spiral higher overnight and ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's key speech later on Thursday. The upshot of all factors has seen Treasury yields climb ever higher through the night - with two-year and 20-year yields , now both above 5.25%, the latter at a record high and the former the highest since 2006. Ten and five-year tenors also saw yields soar to within a hair's breadth of 5% early on Thursday too. The ructions in the bond market and incoming earnings saw Wall St indexes (.SPX), (.NDX) hit their lowest in 10 days on Wednesday and futures were in the red again ahead of the open today.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell's, Republican Jim Jordan, Blackstone, Philip Morris, Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic, Patrick Harker, Christina Fincher Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, U.S, Netflix, Republican, Bank of Japan, Mortgage Bankers Association, HK, Fifth Third Bancorp, Philip Morris , Union Pacific, CSX, Truist Financial, American Airlines, Alaska Air, Philadelphia Fed, U.S . Federal, Dallas, Chicago Fed, Atlanta Fed, Treasury, Housing, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Washington, Venezuela, Europe, Frankfurt, Freeport, McMoRan, China

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq dropped on Friday as deteriorating consumer sentiment data and the Middle East conflict kept investors away from riskier bets and overshadowed some upbeat earnings from big U.S. banks. Third-quarter earnings for the S&P 500 companies are estimated to grow 2.2% on an annual basis, LSEG data showed. Of the 32 S&P 500 companies that have reported results, 87.5% have surpassed expectations compared with the long-term average of 66.5%. Rival Moderna (MRNA.O) dipped 5.1%Lululemon Athletica (LULU.O) added 5.8% as the sportswear apparel maker is set to join the S&P 500 index this week, replacing Activision Blizzard (ATVI.O).

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Antony Blinken, Pissouros, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Johnson, Charles Schwab, Patrick Harker, Jerome Powell, Harker, Austan Goolsbee, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Arun Koyyur, Vinay Dwivedi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Reuters, Pfizer, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, XM, Bank of America, Johnson, Tesla, Netflix, Philly, New York, Philadelphia Fed, Federal, Chicago Fed, Dow e, Nvidia, Activision Blizzard, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Israel, Gaza, United States, Bengaluru

☆ Fed's Goolsbee says fall in US inflation is not just a blip- FT
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reacts as he heads into the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. "There is a lot saying that inflation is trending down compared with what it has been and that’s what we want," Goolsbee said in an interview with the Financial Times. It wasn’t a one-month blip... we have to hope and keep an eye out to make sure that continues," he said. The Chicago Fed president acknowledged a reversal in rental and other housing inflation after months of easing was a "negative surprise" meriting a "proper element of caution", according to the report. Reporting by Jose Joseph in Bengaluru; Editing by Toby ChopraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Ann Saphir, Goolsbee, Jose Joseph, Toby Chopra Organizations: Chicago Fed, Kansas City, REUTERS, Financial Times, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Bengaluru

☆ Israel-Hamas war risks further deglobalization and inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-15 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —The global economy is facing tremendous uncertainty from the war between Hamas and Israel in the Middle East, on top of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. They say Israel’s declaration of war against Hamas could be yet another catalyst for deglobalization, though the extent of that is still up in the air. If deglobalization does get exacerbated, what would that mean for inflation and monetary policy, globally? With deglobalization, you get a global economic environment that’s less competitive, and when there’s less competition, that is ultimately inflationary, causing prices to rise. Over the Covid era, China shut down production, disrupting the global supply chain, so deglobalization would bring some production back within US borders.

Persons: Wells, Bell, Brendan McKenna, that’s, Trump, there’s, Hanna Ziady, we’ve, ”, Avi Hasson, Patrick Harker, John Williams, Tom Barkin, Michelle Bowman, Tesla, Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, Jerome Powell, Austan Goolsbee, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Trump, Hamas, Nation Central, Philadelphia Fed, US Commerce Department, Federal Reserve, National Association of Home Builders, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Procter & Gamble, United Kingdom’s, National Statistics, American Airlines, US Labor Department, Federal, Fed Locations: Washington, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, China, Wells Fargo, Gaza, deglobalization, United States, Mexico, US, Tel Aviv, New York

☆ Here are 3 things to watch in the stock market after a very difficult week
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-14 | by ( Matthew J. Belvedere | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

MS YTD mountain Morgan Stanley YTD We certainly hope Morgan Stanley's numbers are as good as Friday's report from our other bank holding Wells Fargo (WFC). Morgan Stanley is expected to grow revenue by more than 2% year over year to $13.2 billion in the third quarter. During a recent conference, Morgan Stanley executives said that capital markets will likely improve in 2024. Shares of Morgan Stanley have struggled this year, dropping more than 8% compared to the S & P 500's nearly 13% advance in 2023. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: Stocks, WTI, Jerome Powell's, There's, Patrick Harker, John Williams, Harker, Austan Goolsbee, Lorie Logan, Powell, Christopher Waller, Philip Jefferson, Waller, Jefferson, – Morgan Stanley, Gamble –, Morgan Stanley YTD, Morgan, Jim Cramer, Morgan Stanley, there's, Gamble, Jim, we'll, Charles Schwab, Goldman Sachs, Johnson, Philip Morris, — CNBC's Zev Fima, Jim Cramer's, Spencer Platt Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow, Columbus Day, West Texas, Federal Reserve, Club, Fed, Market, Philadelphia Fed, New York Fed, Chicago Fed, Dallas Fed, United Auto Workers, General Motors, Chrysler, Ford, National Association of Realtors, Procter, Procter & Gamble, Natural Resources, Exxon Mobil, Coterra Energy, of America, United Airlines, Gamble, Housing, Netflix, Alcoa, American Airlines, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Alaska Air, CSX, American Express, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Israel, U.S, New, Wells, KBW, Silicon, Manhattan, New York City

In both cases the outcome would push the Fed from that "golden path" onto a far more familiar one: An economy buckling as borrowing costs rise and confidence wanes. "I don't think it is unavoidable" that joblessness will have to rise significantly for inflation to return to target, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said on Monday. But the most important thing is that we stay focused on restoring price stability, and I think that will require some rebalancing in the labor market." Her look at past periods of inflation and disinflation makes her think the labor market may still need a shock for the Fed to succeed. "As nice as it is to see a really strong labor market, when you are trying to get inflation down, that's not your friend."

Persons: Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Austan Goolsbee, Jefferson, Christina Romer, Romer, Goolsbee, that's, Howard Schneider, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: DALLAS, Federal, National Association for Business Economics, Dallas, Chicago Fed, Treasury, University of California, White House's Council, Economic Advisers, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S, Dallas, Israel, Palestinian, Berkeley

☆ The Fed is at odds with itself. That’s a feature, not a bug
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-08 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

So, Fed officials are divided, but it doesn’t really matter. Fed officials are still people, and as the saying goes, opinions are like bellybuttons in that everyone’s got one. Fed officials in that committee with voting power have the option to dissent, but it’s only happened twice this cycle. This year’s voters, which are Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, will be rotated out next year. Up NextMonday: Fed officials Lorie Logan, Michael Barr and Phillip Jefferson deliver remarks.

Persons: Mary Daly, Michelle Bowman, ”, Biden, That’s, Michael Feroli, everyone’s, “ It’s, ” Feroli, Esther George, Ed Al, Hussainy, JPMorgan’s Feroli, It’s, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Neel Kashkari, Logan, Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, San Francisco Fed’s Daly, – CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald, Michael Barr, Phillip Jefferson, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Fed, Market Committee, Kansas City, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Governors, New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Chicago Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Minneapolis Fed, San Francisco, Treasury, PepsiCo, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Delta, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, The University of Michigan Locations: San, Kansas, Columbia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, San Francisco, Walgreens

☆ Bond rout won't end Fed balance sheet cuts, but endgame bubbling into view
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Since June 2022, the Fed has allowed more than $1 trillion of bonds to mature from its portfolio, including roughly $840 billion of Treasuries. QT drains liquidity from the banking system, reducing bank reserves parked at the Fed and cash stashed in its reverse repo facility. Others believe money market rates will start to move up in ways suggesting the system is short of cash. A New York Fed report in April projected an end to QT around the middle of 2025. A survey of major banks by the New York Fed released in August eyed an end to QT in mid-2024.

Persons: it's, ”, Kathy Bostjancic, Bostjancic, Goldman Sachs, Loretta Mester, “, Austan Goolsbee, Mary Daly, Michael Barr, Michael Cloherty, Mark Cabana, ” Cabana, Cabana, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Goldman Sachs, Federal Reserve, Silicon Valley Bank, Fed, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Cleveland Fed, Bloomberg, Chicago Fed, San Francisco Fed, UBS, Bank Policy Institute, New York Fed, Bank of America, Daily, Derby, Thomson Locations: Silicon, Washington

☆ Fed's Goolsbee does not see rise in long-term yields imperiling soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee reacts as he heads into the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. "On the real side I feel like nothing has happened so far that is convincing evidence that we are off the golden path," Goolsbee said on Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast, recorded on Tuesday and aired on Thursday. Their projections also showed they expect to end next year with only a slightly higher unemployment rate, of 4.1%, and a slightly lower policy rate, of 5.1%. Should the rise in long-term yields go so far as to trigger a surge in unemployment or sharp slowdown in economic activity, the Fed will adjust, Goolsbee said. "We absolutely monitor that and are thinking about that, and that could be a blow to either the financial or the real economy," Goolsbee said.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Ann Saphir, Goolsbee, it's, Chizu Organizations: Chicago Fed, Kansas City, REUTERS, Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, Fed, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Goolsbee

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