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☆ The market should rally during this time of year, even as tech struggles and new leaders emerge
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"You could say small cap value but you could also find within large cap, stocks that are relatively cheap. The S & P 500 , on track for a nearly 8% gain for October, was off 0.7%. But the small cap Russell 2000 and the S & P 600 small cap value were up slightly for the day. If the S & P 500 performs as it has on average, it could rise to 3,950, the analysts note. "My conviction is higher that [S & P 600] will outperform than it will go up in absolute terms," he said.

☆ Here's one key measure of stock performance that suggests the market has already hit a bottom, Leuthold's Jim Paulsen says
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Cyclical stocks have been outperforming the S&P 500, suggesting the market has hit a bottom, said Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Leuthold. Cyclical stocks, sensitive to economic changes, have performed "surprisingly well" after the August pullback. "Unlike prior market declines this year, cyclical stocks have held up surprisingly well in the collapse that began in August." The large-cap S&P 500 has dropped by roughly 21% this year, and the small-cap Russell 2000 index has underperformed it only by about 1%. "Not only has the S&P 500 seemingly become more bear-resistant, but its underlying leadership indicates that a market bottom may have already been reached."

☆ History shows the market should be bottoming soon, and inflation data could be catalyst
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

If the stock market is going to follow its historic pattern during a midterm election year, it would be bottoming just around now. "Typically, it's after Oct. 9 that you start to see some better performance," said Ari Wald, technical analyst at Oppenheimer. The analyst said that date was the average day the market bottomed in the last eight mid-term election years, going back to 1990. "Investors should moderate their expectations for US equity valuations; history shows these contract during periods of high volatility." "Generally our view is that the rate market is trading more off Fed policy and the Fed's commitment to fight inflation rather than the actual threat of inflation.

☆ Higher rates are leaving investors around the world with nowhere to hide
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-20 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Once again, nothing happening now is incompatible with this being a prolonged, messy bottoming effort longer term. Are equities still "too expensive" with bond yields here, the 10-year neat 3.5%? The S & P index, maybe, at 16.5x, with some cross-asset models saying it should be one or two multiple points cheaper. VIX getting puffed up 24 hours ahead of the Fed decision, near 27, mechanical stuff.

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