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☆ INDIA RUPEE Rupee seen lower as growth fears hit risk sentiment
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Nimesh Vora | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to weaken at open against the U.S. dollar on Thursday as mounting global growth concerns prompted investors to exit risk assets. The rupee is tipped at around 81.45 to the dollar in early trading against the dollar, compared with the 81.24 close in the previous session. The S&P 500 index fell the most in over a month overnight as weak U.S. retail sales data fuelled worries on the growth front. Retail sales fell more than expected in December, putting consumer spending and the overall economy on a weaker growth path heading into 2023. Further, the decline in retail sales in November was revised to show an even weaker reading.

☆ Markets fully price in quarter-point interest rate hike in February as inflation slows
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Markets are nearly certain the Federal Reserve next month will take another step down in the pace of its interest rate increases. Pricing Wednesday morning pointed to a 94.3% probability of a 0.25 percentage point hike at the central bank's two-day meeting that concludes Feb. 1, according to CME Group data. If that holds, it would take the Fed's benchmark borrowing rate to a targeted range of 4.5%-4.75%. Both indicate that Fed hikes are pulling down inflation and slowing consumer demand. "Softer PPI will join with slower consumer price and wage inflation to most likely push the Fed toward a 25bp increment," he added.

☆ Dollar stands firm while traders await CPI
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar was steady elsewhere, loitering just above a seven-month low on the euro at $1.0737 in the lead-up to U.S. inflation data due on Thursday. The dollar was steady at 132.23 Japanese yen and $1.2161 per British pound . U.S. government bond yields, which have been attracting investors to the dollar, fell overnight and upbeat sentiment in equities lifted stockmarkets. "Another downward surprise to the core CPI would cement the deceleration trend," Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso said. The Singapore dollar has scaled 19-month highs this week and the Thai baht nine-month tops in anticipation of tourism picking up as China's borders open.

☆ Mexico inflation below forecasts in December, core inflation cools
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MEXICO CITY, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Mexico's headline inflation ended 2022 slightly below analysts' expectations, while core inflation finally appeared to have peaked, data from the national statistics agency showed on Monday. Annual headline inflation in December reached 7.82%, up moderately from 7.80% in November, but still below the record 8.70% reached in August and September. (MXCCPI=ECI)Economists polled by Reuters had expected annual headline inflation to come in at 7.86% and core inflation at 8.36%. On a monthly basis, core inflation was 0.65% in December. (MXCPIX=ECI)Meanwhile, monthly headline inflation was 0.38% in the period, according to non-seasonally adjusted figures.

☆ Central banks around the world have now given the markets a clear message — tighter policy is here to stay
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-16 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A screen displays the Fed rate announcement as a trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), November 2, 2022. Brendan McDermid | Reuterswatch nowGeorge Saravelos, head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, said the major central banks had given the markets a "clear message" that "financial conditions need to stay tight." Now that central banks have achieved this, the 2023 theme is different: preventing the market from doing the opposite," Saravelos said. "The overall message for 2023 seems clear: central banks will push back on higher risky assets until the labour market starts to turn," Saravelos concluded. Berenberg added a further 50 basis point move on March 16 to its existing anticipation of 50 basis points on Feb. 2.

☆ Morning Bid: Still a ways to go?
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

For markets navigating the barrage of major central bank interest rate rises this week - there's a ways to go, much as Fed chief Jerome Powell insists about the tightening cycle. Central banks in the Philippines, Norway and Taiwan also raised rates by 50bp, 25bp and 12.5bp respectively. But the policy message all around is that more pain is coming unless there's further evidence of sky-high inflation rates returning to 2% targets. Peak Fed rates implied in futures markets on Thursday remain 20bp below that official Fed projection and year-end market pricing is some 70bp below it. The economy there lost more steam in November as factory output slowed and retail sales extended declines, both missing forecasts and clocking their worst readings in six months.

☆ Here's everything the Federal Reserve is expected to do Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

U.S. Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell holds a news conference after Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point in Washington, September 21, 2022. Kevin Lamarque | ReutersCall it a sign of the times where a half percentage point interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve is considered looser monetary policy. In 2022, they've done it five times — four times for three-quarters of a point and once for a half percentage point — with Wednesday's widely anticipated 0.5 percentage point move to be the sixth. Wednesday's meeting of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee will bring an assortment of moves to chew on. The 'dot plot' and the 'terminal rate'That "terminal rate" of which Masotti spoke references the expected end point for the Fed and its current rate-hiking cycle.

LONDON, Dec 14 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve, investment world and wider economy now have a major sequencing problem. With headline annual CPI ebbing to 7.1% last month, and core rates undershooting forecasts too to just 6.0%, most economists seem confident inflation did indeed peak around midyear. Equivalent public readings from New York Fed surveys are on the wane too. Fed Futures See Lower Rates End-23Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics"TAIL SCENARIO"Sounding something of a klaxon for most asset markets after the CPI number, the peak or terminal Fed funds rate that futures markets implied by May was dragged firmly back below 5%. Apart from verbal guidance, one important signal markets will watch on Wednesday will be the Fed's economic projections that include policy rate assumptions for the year.

☆ Asian shares slump, dollar firms ahead of central bank rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Both the S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures dipped 0.1%. On Friday, Wall Street dropped, Treasury yields advanced and the dollar pared earlier losses. A U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report on Tuesday will set the tone for markets for the week. Economists expect core annual inflation to ease to 6.1% in November, compared with a rise of 6.3% seen in the previous month. Risk could be on the upside, after data on Friday showed producer prices had increased faster than expected, fuelling concerns the CPI report may indicate inflation is sticky and interest rates may have to stay higher for longer.

☆ Asian shares fall, dollar firms ahead of central bank rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

On Friday, Wall Street dropped, Treasury yields advanced and the dollar pared earlier losses. A U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report on Tuesday will set the tone for markets for the week. In addition to the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also set to announce interest rate hikes, as policymakers continue to put the brakes on growth to curb inflation. In the oil market, prices rose after falling on Friday to the lowest level this year on global recession fears. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures increased 0.9% to $71.71 per barrel, while Brent crude settled at $76.64 a barrel, 0.7% higher.

☆ Asian shares dip, dollar firms ahead of central bank rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The U.S. consumer inflation report on Tuesday will set the tone for markets for the week. In Asia, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased 0.1% on Monday, after rising 1.3% last week. In addition to the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also set to announce interest rate hikes, as policymakers continue to put the brakes on growth to curb inflation. Treasury yields held largely steady on Monday after rallying from the lowest levels in three months during the previous session. (This story has been corrected to fix the weekly change for MSCI's Asia index in paragraph 5)Editing by Lincoln Feast.

☆ US stocks finish mixed amid fears of more Fed hawkishness after hot jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Dow reversed higher as the Fed is still largely expected to slow its pace of rate hikes. But the hot jobs data could push the Fed to tack on more rate hikes in early 2023, some analysts say. JPMorgan Asset Management chief strategist David Kelly said the jobs report was likely distorted, and there's still plenty of room for the Fed to taper rate hikes and pause in 2023. Principal Asset Management chief strategist Seema Shah said the jobs report could push the Fed to raise rates above 5%. "This report doesn't mean the risks of the Fed raising rates to 6% are back on the table.

☆ Here's how the Fed's rate hike can move markets and whether to expect a central bank pivot
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

That bank thinks the Fed is going to skirt any talk of a pivot, and opt for continued rate hikes albeit at a slower pace. Goldman Sachs listed three reasons the Fed will carry on with rate hikes:US inflation will remain "sticky" so a pivot won't be justified. Keeping rate hikes going until March 2023 will set up the central bank for a future pivot. US stock futures rise early Wednesday, as eyes turn toward the Fed's rate hike decision later today. Here's what you want to know about the 1920 rule that's still moving markets more than a century later.

☆ The two words investors want to hear from Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

As markets look for signs that the Federal Reserve is stepping away from its breakneck pace of interest rate hikes, two words from this week's meeting could be crucial. No one is expecting the Fed to stop rate hikes, at least for several months. "The November FOMC meeting is not about the November policy rate decision. Instead, the meeting is about future policy rate guidance and what to expect in December and beyond." Even with the step-down hopes from Wednesday's meeting, market expectations are still for a fairly aggressive Fed.

☆ Dollar eases on improved risk sentiment before Fed; Aussie pares gains after RBA
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Our general sense is that the dollar probably has peaked, but that doesn't necessarily mean it's coming down." The Aussie gained 0.3% to $0.6416, but was off earlier highs after the RBA opted for another 25-bp hike. The Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark rate by 75 bps on Wednesday, its fourth such increase in a row. But for the December meeting, Fed funds futures are split on the odds of a 75- or 50-bps increase. read moreReporting by Kevin Buckland; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da CostaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bank Negara Malaysia set to hike for fourth time in a row on Nov. 3 - Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Shaloo Shrivastava | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) started raising rates in May even though inflation was within its target range of 2%-3%. It has since hiked rates by 75 basis points to keep inflation in check. All but two of 27 economists in the Oct. 25-31 poll predicted BNM would hike its overnight policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% from 2.50% at its Nov. 3 meeting. While 13 of 18 penciled in a 25 basis point hike in Q1, three said 50 basis points. The median forecast showed the overnight policy rate would remain at 3.00% until at least the end of next year.

☆ Goldman Sachs lays out 3 reasons why the Fed won't pivot, but will keep hiking into 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve will carry on hiking interest rates after its February meeting, Goldman Sachs said. It will keep raising rates because of sticky inflation and to prepare for a potential pivot, Goldman said. The Goldman Sachs team, led by chief economist Jan Hatzius, forecast the Fed will then transition to smaller rate hikes for three reasons. Last, bringing in smaller rate hikes until March will put the Fed in a better position for a future pivot. Read more: Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson says the Fed will pivot from interest rate hikes 'sooner rather than later' to help stocks rally by his predicted 6%

☆ Dollar weathers suspected yen intervention, China data mixed
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar weathered another suspected blast of Japanese intervention to push higher on the yen on Monday, while most share markets rallied on just the hint of an eventual slowdown in U.S. rate hikes. REUTERS/Issei KatoThe dollar started in a bullish mood with an early rush to 149.70 yen, before taking a sudden spill as far as 145.28 in a matter of minutes. Yet speculators seemed undaunted and took the dollar back up to 148.90 in choppy trading. Also moving was sterling, which see-sawed on news Boris Johnson had dropped out of running for British prime minister. The Bank of Canada is also expected to tighten by 75 basis points at its meeting this week.

☆ Dollar absorbs suspected yen intervention, China data mixed
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SYDNEY (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar weathered another suspected blast of Japanese intervention to push higher on the yen on Monday, while for equities a drop in Chinese markets took the shine off hopes for an eventual slowdown in U.S. interest rate hikes. REUTERS/Issei KatoThe dollar started in a bullish mood with an early rush to 149.70 yen, before taking a sudden spill as far as 145.28 in a matter of minutes. Yet speculators seemed undaunted and took the dollar back up to 148.90 in choppy trading. Japanese authorities again declined to confirm whether they had intervened, but the price action strongly suggested they had. [GOL/]Oil prices surrendered early gains following soft data on Chinese demand.

☆ Dollar shrugs off suspected yen intervention, Europe clings to Fed hopes
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Wayne Cole | Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

LONDON/SYDNEY (Reuters) - The dollar weathered another suspected blast of Japanese intervention to rise against the yen on Monday, while European markets got a lift from hopes that U.S. interest rates could rise more slowly than previously thought. Japanese authorities again declined to confirm whether they had intervened, but the price action suggested they had. Sterling, meanwhile, see-sawed in volatile trade on news Boris Johnson had dropped out of the running for British prime minister. The peak for rates has also edged down to around 4.87%, from above 5% early last week. “Although we do not expect any ‘dovish’ policy signal, we maintain a bias towards a lower rate path than currently priced by markets,” said analysts at NatWest Markets in a note.

☆ Australia's c.bank says to hike rates more, can keep pace with global peers
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SYDNEY, Oct 18 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of Australia expects to raise interest rates further over the coming months, the deputy governor said on Tuesday, noting that the bank can achieve a similar tightening in rates to its global peers through smaller hikes. "This is a particular advantage in uncertain times, as it allows more frequent evaluation of the evidence and recalibration if necessary," said Bullock. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"It also means that if we increase interest rates at every meeting, we can potentially move much faster than overseas central banks." "The Board expects to increase interest rates further over coming months. But the pace and timing will be determined by the economic data," Bullock said.

☆ Bank Indonesia playing catch-up, to deliver another 50 bps rate hike on Thursday: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-18 | by ( Devayani Sathyan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Relatively lower inflation allowed the central bank to hold off with raising rates until August. But in September inflation reached 5.95%, the highest since 2015, and will likely push the central bank to continue tightening. BI, until recently one of the world's last dovish central banks, followed a modest quarter-point rate rise in this cycle with a surprisingly aggressive 50 basis point rise in September. The weaker rupiah , down more than 8% so far this year, has prompted economists to bring forward their rate hike expectations. Reuters Poll: Indonesia inflation and monetary policy outlookThe poll showed inflation was expected to average 4.6% this year and inch down to 4.5% in 2023, a massive upgrade from 3.9% and 3.5% predicted in July.

☆ India's retail inflation rate likely peaked in September - analysts
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( Tetsushi Kajimoto | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MUMBAI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - India's consumer price-led inflation is expected to gradually decelerate after September, helped by a fall in commodity prices and easing food inflation, analysts said. India's annual retail inflation accelerated to a five-month high of 7.41% in September from 7% in the previous month, data released on Wednesday showed. Food inflation, which accounts for nearly 40% of the CPI basket, rose 8.60% in September, compared to 7.62% in August. However, helped partially by easing global commodity prices, India's inflation rate should moderate from here, likely reaching "a tad below" the 6% mark by February or March, Morgan Stanley said in a note. Credit Suisse said that the October inflation rate will likely be 1% lower given a higher base, especially for food prices.

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