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☆ Thursday's inflation data may be low, but don't expect the Fed to declare 'mission accomplished' yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

But history has shown that inflation is stubborn and can last longer than expected once it becomes elevated and entrenched. "We can feel confident that inflation is moving in the right direction," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. For instance, housing-related costs, which make up about one-third of the inflation index weighting, are dropping. In particular, they don't want to declare 'mission accomplished' too soon," he said Wednesday during an interview on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street." watch nowAt the macro level, the Fed rate hikes have appeared to do minimal damage.

Persons: Mandel Ngan, Dow Jones, Mark Zandi, Zandi, they're, Richard Clarida isn't, Clarida, Joe Biden, Patrick Reilly, Banks, Reilly, John Williams of, Patrick Harker Organizations: AFP, Getty, Federal Reserve, CPI, Moody's, Federal, of Labor Statistics, AAA, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, America Economic Survey Locations: Bethesda , Maryland, John Williams of New York, Philadelphia

☆ Moody’s warns it could cut credit ratings of 6 big US banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( Olesya Dmitracova | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

CNN —Moody’s has put the credit ratings of six large US banks, including Bank of New York Mellon, State Street and Northern Trust, under review for a possible downgrade. A lower credit rating could push funding costs for those banks even higher. This, in turn, has raised fears that banks, which finance many commercial real estate deals, could suffer losses as a result. “Most regional banks have comparatively low regulatory capital versus the largest US banks and global peers,” Moody’s noted Monday. Moody’s also downgraded 10 smaller US banks Monday, including Commerce Bancshares (CBSH), BOK Financial Corporation and M&T Bank Corporation.

Persons: CNN — Moody’s, Dow, Cullen Frost, ” Moody’s, Moody’s Organizations: CNN, Bank of New York Mellon, State, Northern Trust, Nasdaq, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, First, U.S . Bancorp, Commerce, BOK Financial Corporation, T Bank Corporation Locations: Silicon, First Republic, United States

☆ US bank stocks drop as Moody's downgrade sours sentiment
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Raindrops hang on a sign for Wall Street outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., October 26, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File PhotoAug 8 (Reuters) - Shares of U.S. banks fell in premarket trading on Tuesday after ratings agency Moody's downgraded 10 mid-sized lenders, reigniting investor concerns about the challenges facing the industry. Moody's also warned it may cut ratings of some of the biggest U.S. lenders, and placed six of them under review for a potential downgrade. "It is significant for U.S. growth too, as U.S. regional banks are the financing lifeblood for small and mid-size enterprises." Shares of Bank of America (BAC.N), Citigroup (C.N) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) fell more than 1%.

Persons: Mike Segar, Moody's, Stuart Cole, JPMorgan Chase, Georgios Leontaris, Niket Nishant, Mayur, Shashwat Chauhan, Shounak Dasgupta, Saumyadeb Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Bank of New York Mellon, U.S . Bancorp, Truist, Equiti, Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Bank, EMEA, HSBC Global Private Banking, Wealth, Thomson Locations: Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S, Silicon, Switzerland, Bengaluru

☆ Mitsubishi UFJ to invest $936 mln in U.S. Bancorp
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Makiko Yamazaki | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

People queue inside a branch of the Mitsubishi UFJ (MUFJ) Financial Group's bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in Tokyo, Japan, February 1, 2016. In return, MUFG's stake in the fifth largest U.S. bank will rise to 4.4% from 2.9%. MUFG sold its U.S. retail banking unit MUFG Union Bank to U.S. Bancorp for $8 billion last year. As part of the deal, U.S. Bancorp received $3.5 billion in additional cash held by MUFG Union Bank which it is required to repay within five years. The Minneapolis-based bank will also help MUFG with U.S. dollar liquidity support, allowing the Japanese bank to diversify dollar funding sources in case of contingencies.

Persons: Yuya, MUFG's, MUFG, Makiko Yamazaki, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Edwina Gibbs Organizations: Mitsubishi, REUTERS, Bancorp, Union Bank TOKYO, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial, U.S . Bancorp, U.S, MUFG, Bank, MUFG Union Bank, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Minneapolis

Aug 4 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The long end of the U.S. Treasury curve is getting crushed, triggering a surge in long-dated yields and 'steepening' of the curve. The Asian economic data and corporate events calendar on Friday is light, with only Philippines inflation and Singapore retail sales on tap, leaving regional markets beholden to global risk sentiment. The 10-year and 30-year yields are at their highest levels since November, comfortably above 4.0%, and the latter is on track for its biggest weekly rise this year. Global currency market and S&P 500 equity volatility are the highest in two months, and implied volatility in dollar/yen trading is registering its steepest weekly rise since March.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Deepa Babington Organizations: Investors, U.S, Treasury, Apple, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, Singapore, Japan, Philippines

☆ Geopolitical risks are a top global threat to businesses, survey finds
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Sumathi Bala | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Around 36% of businesses polled view geopolitical tensions as top risks currently — such as those related to issues over Taiwan, South Korea, and Russia-NATO. The latest third quarter 2023 Global Risk Survey covered 127 businesses from July 6-27 this year. Risks aheadGeopolitical risks continue to factor prominently for businesses as a major concern for the next five years. "As reported last quarter, more than three-fifths of respondents view geopolitical risks as a very significant risk to the global economy over the medium term," said Thompson. "An intensification of geopolitical tensions could potentially trigger significant deglobalization of trade and the financial system," he added.

Persons: Fred DUFOUR, FRED DUFOUR, Fred Dufour, Jamie Thompson, Fitch, Biden, Vladimir Putin, Thompson, Kevin O'Leary Organizations: Getty, Afp, Oxford Economics, Fitch downgrades, UBS, NATO, U.S, Reuters, Atlantic Treaty Organization, . Federal, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank Locations: Beijing, Taiwan, South Korea, Russia, Washington, U.S, China, it's, Ukraine, Republic, Silicon

The National Bank of Canada logo is seen outside of a branch in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, February 14, 2019. National Bank said in a statement it will acquire the C$1 billion ($752 million) loan portfolio made up of technology, life science and global fund banking sectors. National Bank already has made a number of bets in the tech space in Canada investing in fintech firms such as KOHO, Synctera and Flinks over the years. Veritas Investment Research analyst Nigel D'Souza said the deal does not restrict National Bank from acquiring Laurentian Bank (LB.TO), but that deal was now less likely. "We continue to view National Bank as the best fit among the Big Six banks for Laurentian," D'Souza said.

Persons: Chris Wattie, Michael Denham, Denham, Tuyen Vo, Nigel D'Souza, D'Souza, Jaiveer Singh, Will Dunham, Krishna Chandra Eluri, Shilpi Majumdar Organizations: National Bank of Canada, REUTERS, National Bank, National Bank's Technology, Innovation Banking, Bank, Veritas Investment Research, Laurentian Bank, Big, Thomson Locations: Ottawa , Ontario, Canada, U.S, Silicon, Bengaluru

Aug 2 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. A double dose of the U.S. Treasuries and dollar 'pain trade' looks set to put Asian markets on the defensive on Wednesday, with investors also bracing for South Korean inflation figures and an expected interest rate hike from the Bank of Thailand. Several indicators, from big Wall Street banks' client surveys to futures market positioning data, show investors are not positioned for that. The yen has fallen nearly 4% since the BOJ tweaked its seven-year 'yield curve control' policy on Friday. Annual inflation in South Korea, meanwhile, is expected to have slowed to 2.40% in July from 2.70% the month before.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Tuesday's, Deepa Babington Organizations: Bank of Thailand, Bank of, Apple, South, South Korea CPI, PMI, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, Pacific, U.S, South Korea, Thailand, Singapore

Last week, Tiani, a general, used his position and manpower to do the opposite. "We cannot continue with the same approaches proposed so far, as it risks witnessing the gradual and inevitable disappearance of our nation," he said. Regional powers have threatened military intervention if he does not return Bazoum to power within days. Just last week, Niger, one of the world's poorest countries, was seen as the West's last ally in the region. The speed of change in Niger is evident in Tiani's biography.

Persons: Tiani, Abdourahamane Tiani, Mohamed Bazoum, Fatherland ,, Emelia Sithole, Edward McAllister Organizations: UN, College of International Security Affairs, Fort McNair, United Nations, Democratic, European Union, Reuters, National Council, Fatherland, State, Thomson Locations: France, Senegal NIAMEY, West, Central Africa, Mali, Burkina Faso, Filingué, Niger, Agadez, Morocco, Senegal, United States, Washington , DC, Ivory Coast, Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, U.S

☆ US bank preferred capital issuance makes a tentative comeback
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( Shankar Ramakrishnan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

So-called preferred securities, which are one of the riskiest forms of debt but also have some characteristics of stocks, are popular among banks as a way to boost their capital for regulatory purposes. More than $160 billion of preferreds were issued in 2020 and 2021 each, when rates were low. Volume dropped last year to $70 billion as the U.S. Federal Reserve embarked on an interest rate hiking cycle. When Wells Fargo & Co (WFC.N) issued a new public preferred security earlier this month, investor demand far outweighed supply. The $1.725 billion deal received orders of over $6 billion, bringing total issuance for the year to $37 billion.

Persons: preferreds, Wells, ”, Daniel Botoff, Allie Quine, Cohen, Steers, Quine, WELLS, Wells Fargo, RBC's Botoff, Shankar Ramakrishnan, Paritosh Bansal, Matthew Lewis Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Credit Suisse, UBS Group, Wells Fargo & Co, Treasury, RBC Capital Markets, Informa Global, Thomson Locations: U.S, preferreds, New York

☆ 'Things are going to break': Kevin O'Leary predicts Fed hikes will lead to more U.S. regional bank failures
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( Clement Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

"Shark Tank" investor Kevin O'Leary predicts the ongoing cycle of U.S. Federal Reserve rate hikes could lead to more regional U.S. bank failures. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank is not yet fully confident that inflation is defeated even though recent headline reads show that price increases have cooled significantly. The consumer price index rose 3% from a year ago in June — the lowest level since March 2021. But Powell said the Fed would need to "hold policy at a restrictive level for some time" and be prepared to raise rates further, given that core inflation is still above 3% — higher than its 2% annual target. "I am just predicting — and I am very cautious on this — it will break down in the regional banks, which supports 60% of the economy," he said, adding that the rapid rise in the cost of capital is "killing them on their real estate loans."

Persons: Kevin O'Leary, Jerome Powell, Powell, O'Leary, CNBC's Organizations: . Federal, O'Leary Ventures Locations: U.S

July 26 (Reuters) - PacWest Bancorp's (PACW.O) shares rose nearly 38% in premarket trading on Wednesday, a day after smaller rival Banc of California (BANC.N) agreed to buy the lender for $1.1 billion in an all-stock deal. Banc of California's shares jumped nearly 13% after the lender said it would pay 0.6569 share to PacWest stockholders for each share they own. PacWest stock was trading at $10.47, higher than the offer price of $9.60 per share, per calculations based on Banc of California's closing price on Tuesday. "The deal marks a structural transformation for BANC and accelerates its evolution, with a much improved profitability profile exiting 2024." Private equity firms Warburg Pincus and Centerbridge Partners have agreed to invest $400 million in Banc of California's buyout deal.

Persons: Raymond James, David Long, Long, Ares Management, PacWest, Omar Fahmy, Fahmy, Warburg Pincus, Niket Nishant, Manya, Shinjini Organizations: Reuters, PNC, Western Alliance, Warburg, Centerbridge Partners, Manya Saini, Thomson Locations: California, Banc, U.S, Los Angeles , California, Bengaluru

☆ Saudi Mbappé bid even less rational than it looks
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Liam Proud | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Yet a possible outlay of 1 billion euros, including compensation, takes the country’s sporting tactics to surreal new heights. Added to the transfer fee, that takes the outlay to around 1 billion euros. Spain’s LaLiga generated about 900 million euros in international broadcast revenue in the 2020-2021 season, according to Deloitte. CBS Sports reported that Al Hilal was also offering Mbappé a total one-year compensation package worth 700 million euros. The Guardian reported that Mbappé’s one-year salary would be 200 million euros, rising to 700 million euros after including other commercial arrangements and proceeds from image rights.

Persons: Al Hilal’s, Kylian, Germain, Declan Rice, Mbappé, Mbappé aren’t, Al Hilal, George Hay, Streisand Neto Organizations: Reuters, Paris Saint, Arsenal, Saudi Pro League, Guardian, Deloitte, English Premier League, Saudi, Newcastle United, Premier League, Economics, Regional, Qatar, Britons, Al, Financial Times, Bloomberg, CBS Sports, Thomson Locations: Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Paris, China, Saudi, France’s, Saudi Arabian, French

☆ Fifth Third Bancorp tops profit estimates on strong interest income
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

July 20 (Reuters) - Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB.O) on Thursday posted a better-than-expected second-quarter profit, as interest rate hikes by the U.S. central bank boosted its interest income. The bank's shares, down 13% this year, were up 1.2% in premarket trading. The rigorous rate hike cycle by the Federal Reserve has allowed lenders to boost their interest income by charging higher interest on loans. Fifth Third's net interest income - the difference between the income from loan interests and payout on deposits - jumped 9% to $1.46 billion. The result trails major U.S. regional banks who saw their shares rise on the back of higher interest income and stabilized deposits after the banking crisis in the previous quarter sparked industry turmoil.

Persons: Sri Hari, Maju Samuel Organizations: Third Bancorp, U.S, Federal Reserve, Fifth, Fifth Third Bancorp, Sri, Thomson Locations: Ohio, Bengaluru

☆ KeyCorp second-quarter profit halves on higher loan loss provisions
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

July 20 (Reuters) - KeyCorp (KEY.N) reported on Thursday a bigger-than-expected 50% fall in quarterly profit, as it set aside more rainy day funds amid growing economic uncertainties. Shares of the company fell nearly 3% in premarket trading. The lender's provisions for credit losses jumped by 271% to $167 million at the quarter end, compared with $45 million in a year-ago quarter. Banks have started to raise their provisions for loan losses as high borrowing costs threaten to cripple the banking sector from the risk of defaults. The company's net interest income fell nearly 11% to $986 million for the quarter ended June 30, compared with $1.1 billion, a year earlier.

Persons: Banks, Jaiveer Singh, Shweta Agarwal Organizations: Thomson Locations: Bengaluru

☆ Commercial real estate loans are the next big risk for lenders. See the top 20 banks with the most property debt exposure, from JPMorgan to Wells Fargo.
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Alex Nicoll | Daniel Geiger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Rising interest rates and remote work have put commercial real estate in the hot seat. With the help of Trepp, we've compiled a list of the top bank lenders for commercial real estate. The rising property losses are the result of rising interest rates, which have dramatically increased the cost of borrowing for highly leveraged commercial real estate investors. Office property owners are most at risk thanks to the remote-work phenomenon, which has been emptying out offices for three years now. Big names like Blackstone, Brookfield, and Starwood all have defaulted on properties and real estate securities in recent months.

Persons: we've, Wells, Chase, It's, Goldman Sachs, Newmark, Michael Santomassimo, Santomassimo, We've Organizations: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Starwood, Bank of America, Signature Bank, New York Community Bank, Mortgage Bankers Association, Wells, Trepp, Federal Reserve, SEC Locations: Blackstone, Brookfield

☆ Asia's private credit markets thrive as desperate borrowers find lenders
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Private lenders, meanwhile, had "significant liquidity" to deploy for such financings, proving to be a right fit. Besides property developers, borrowers thronging private markets include privately-held companies and start-ups whose private equity issuance has been stymied by broader stock market swings and the deepening discounts of their valuations, known as a 'down round' in the industry. Investment firm Muzinich & Co. recently announced it had closed a $500 million Asia Pacific private debt strategy. Australian superannuation fund UniSuper, which runs a $15 billion private markets portfolio investing in unlisted infrastructure and private equity, is looking to grow its portfolio. "Just given the pipeline of opportunities, we could see ourselves potentially ... (doing) another $3 to $5 billion," said Sandra Lee, UniSuper's head of private markets.

Persons: Bryan Clark, Andrew Tan, Tan, Sandra Lee, UniSuper's, Shane Forster, Benno Klingenberg, Timm, Rae Wee, Georgina Lee, Vidya Ranganathan, Kim Coghill Organizations: Star, JLL, Western, Muzinich, Asia Pacific, Muzinich's Asia Pacific, ICE, Bain Capital, India's, Mahindra Bank, Hong Kong's ADM, BlackRock, Data, Barclays, UBS, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Arizona, Asia, Hong Kong, Singapore

☆ U.S regional bank shares rise on interest income, deposits stabilizing
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

July 19 (Reuters) - Three major U.S. regional banks met or beat profit expectations on Wednesday as higher interest rates allowed them to charge more for loans, while deposits stabilized, sending shares across the sector up. Investors have been anxiously awaiting regional bank second quarter earnings as they look for reassurance that the turmoil that rocked the sector earlier this year has finally passed. M&T Bank Corporation (MTB.N) and Citizens Financial Group (CFG.N) both beat Wall Street estimates from charging clients higher interest rates after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised borrowing costs to rein in stubborn inflation. The KBW Regional Bank Index (.KRX) and S&P regional bank index (.SPCOMBNKS) were each gaining nearly 2% in line with the broader market. M&T's deposits rose to $162.1 billion from $159.1 billion at the end of the first quarter, but fell about 4.9% year-on-year.

Persons: NII, Dennis Dick, Michelle Price, Manya Saini, Jaiveer Singh Shekhawat, Johann Cherian, Chibuike, Nick Zieminski Organizations: T Bank Corporation, Citizens Financial, Wall, U.S . Federal Reserve, Citizens, US Bancorp, Big, Regional, Zions Bancorp, Truist, Fifth Third Bancorp, Bank, Triple D, Thomson Locations: Big U.S, Silicon, Bengaluru, New York

☆ 'Completely off the table' that there will be more regional bank failures: RBC's Gerard Cassidy
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via Email'Completely off the table' that there will be more regional bank failures: RBC's Gerard CassidyGerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets shares his outlook on U.S. regional banks if the Fed keeps raising rates.

Persons: RBC's Gerard Cassidy Gerard Cassidy Organizations: RBC Capital Markets, Fed

Potential buyers and sellers are also being deterred by the long wait for deal approvals by regulators, the experts said. The uncertainty over capital rules has created a "chilling effect" that could put a lid on mergers, while rising interest rates and a looming economic downturn could also damp activity, Adams said. That compares to $3.9 billion in bank deals for non-stressed institutions, the lowest seen over the first half of a year since 2010. "Instead of evaluating mergers based on competition and the needs of the community, political factors have become too important," she said. Regional banks will "have incentives to merge and reach larger scale since they will be subject to more regulatory scrutiny and capital,” Johnson said.

Persons: ”, Timothy Adams, Adams, Michael Barr, “, Meg Tahyar, Davis Polk, Janet Yellen, Tim Johnson, ” Johnson, Tatiana Bautzer, Saeed Azhar, Nupur Anand, Pete Schroeder, Lananh Nguyen, Deepa Babington Organizations: YORK, Institute of International Finance, Global, Federal, Treasury, Dominion Bank, First, KPMG, Thomson Locations: U.S, Canada's Toronto

☆ US commercial real estate probably won't recover from crisis until 2040, thanks to out-of-fashion office buildings, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Zahra Tayeb | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US commercial real-estate values aren't likely to recover until 2040, according to Capital Economics' deputy chief property economist. Kiran Raichura said office values are unlikely to rebound to their peaks until 2040 thanks to the strengthening work-from-home trend, and high interest rates. The commercial real estate (CRE) industry has been under stress since the US regional-banking sector faced a bout of turmoil earlier this year. Columbia Business School professor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh recently warned that the pain is just beginning for commercial real estate – and tumbling prices could fire up the banking crisis again and hurt the US economy. Furthermore, rising distressed commercial real-estate assets is adding to concerns a crisis may be brewing in the sector.

Persons: we've, Kiran Raichura, —, Raichura, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh Organizations: Capital Economics, Service, Columbia Business School

LONDON/HONG KONG, July 4 (Reuters) - Global stocks held steady on Tuesday, as investors balanced the inflationary force of rising oil prices with hopes that central banks would not over-tighten monetary policy into a potential recession. Earlier in the session, Australia's central bank held interest rates steady at 4.1%, saying it needed time to assess the economic impact of its rate hikes so far. Complicating the outlook for inflation, oil prices rose on Tuesday as markets weighed supply cuts for August by top producers Saudi Arabia and Russia. Brent crude futures climbed 0.6% to $75.09 a barrel, with West Texas Intermediate crude adding the same amount to $70.23. "At least the improved supply-demand imbalance seems to be having an effect on price pressures," Capital Economics global economist Ariane Curtis said.

Persons: Europe's, Brent, Ariane Curtis, Curtis, Manishi Raychaudhuri, Raychaudhuri, Schatz, Paul Volcker, Ankur Banerjee, Sam Holmes, Himani Sarkar, Alex Richardson Organizations: U.S . Federal Reserve, Wall, West Texas, Institute of Supply Management, Economics, Asia, BNP Paribas, Treasury, Independence, U.S, Fed, Thomson Locations: HONG KONG, Saudi Arabia, Russia, U.S, Singapore

☆ US 2yr/10yr yield curve hits deepest inversion in 42 years
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

July 3 (Reuters) - A widely watched section of the U.S. Treasury yield curve on Monday hit its deepest inversion since the high inflation era of Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, in a signal that financial markets see the current Fed tightening cycle eventually tipping the U.S. into recession. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury note yields hit the widest since 1981 at -110.80 basis points in early trade, a deeper inversion than in March during the U.S. regional banking crisis. The gap was last at -108.30 bp. Reporting by Alden Bentley; editing by Philippa FletcherOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Paul Volcker, Alden Bentley, Philippa Fletcher Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Fed, Thomson

☆ Spread between 2- and 10-year Treasuries at deepest inversion since '81
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The closely-watched spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury note yields hit the widest since 1981 at -109.50 in early trade, a deeper inversion than in March during the U.S. regional banking crisis. A yield curve inversion - in which shorter-dated Treasuries trade at higher yields than longer-dated securities - has been a reliable signal of upcoming recessions. The spread between 2 and 10-year Treasuries has been inverted since last July. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 3.6 basis points at 4.913% in morning trading Monday. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was up 1.2 basis points to 3.831%.

Persons: Paul Volcker, Ian Lyngen, Treasuries, Alden Bentley, Philippa Fletcher, Susan Fenton Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Fed, BMO, San Francisco Fed, Thomson Locations: United States, U.S

LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) - Western central banks have been warned this week not to quit in the final lap of their monetary tightening campaign - the hard yards households and financial markets may now find exhausting. And yet, desperate for their members not to declare premature victory in getting inflation back to 2% targets or sow an assumption above-target inflation will eventually be tolerated, central bank watchdogs are cheerleading a last push. But that's not in forecasts this time around - with U.S. and UK headline inflation rates not back to target by the end of next year and the euro zone not even by then. 'Last Mile' of disinflationBIS chart on speed of disinflation'UNCOMFORTABLE TRUTHS'And the BIS message was echoed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday. "Monetary policy should continue to tighten and then remain in restrictive territory until core inflation is on a clear downward path," she said.

Persons: that's, Gita Gopinath, Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Jerome Powell's, John Williams, Williams, Joseph Little, Mike Dolan, Mark Potter Organizations: Bank for International Settlements, BIS, for Economic Cooperation, International Monetary Fund, Bank's, IMF, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, New York Fed, U.S, Bank of England, Global, HSBC Asset Management, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Portugal

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