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Analysts are increasingly recommending defensive stocks to blunt the impact of an economic slowdown. The S&P 500's consumer staples sector has risen more than 4% in the last month. AdvertisementAmid fears of a recession and increased market volatility, analysts have been pointing to defensive stocks as a safe bet to hedge macro risk. Among defensive sectors — which include things like real estate and financials — investors recently have been pouring into consumer staples in particular. With the Federal Reserve likely to finally cut rates at its meeting this week, defensive stocks could be poised for further growth.
Persons: , Morgan Stanley's, Mike Wilson, Wilson, that's, Savita Subramanian, Subramanian Organizations: Service, Retailers, Walmart, Target, Bank of America, P Global Semiconductor, Financial Times, Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Locations: cyclicals
The Wall Street investment bank sees the S & P 500 rising about 6% to 6,000 in the next 12 months from Friday's close of 5,626.02. "Resilient economic growth should lead to modestly higher bond yields while continued earnings growth drives modestly higher equity prices," David Kostin, Goldman's head of U.S. equity, said in a note to clients on Friday. Wall Street is counting on lower corporate and consumer borrowing costs to boost earnings growth and stock prices. With multiples flat, EPS growth will lead the S & P 500 modestly higher." Goldman believes stocks with a "long duration" could outperform in a falling interest rate environment.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, David Kostin, Kostin, Russell, Goldman's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Electric, Rivian Automotive, Lucid, Costco Wholesale Locations: U.S, Friday's
Gold prices at all-time highs as traders eye deeper U.S. rate cut
  + stars: | 2024-09-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices climbed to a two-week high on Thursday as U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell opened the door to cutting interest rates as early as September. Gold prices surged to record highs on Monday, driven by a softer dollar and expectations of a larger interest rate reduction by the U.S. Federal Reserve this week. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $2,588.29 per ounce, as of 0551 GMT, after hitting an all-time high of $2,589.23 earlier in the session. This would be Fed's first rate cut since 2020. Zero-yield bullion tends to be a preferred investment amid lower interest rates and geopolitical turmoil.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Tim Waterer, Donald Trump Organizations: Federal, U.S . Federal Reserve, KCM, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Republican, FBI Locations: China, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, South Korea
Stock futures were flat Monday evening as Wall Street readied for key retail sales data and the start of the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. Futures tied to the S&P 500 hovered near the flatline, along with futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average . Investors on Tuesday will parse retail sales data for August for one final glimpse into the health of the U.S. consumer ahead of the Fed rate decision. The results could affect the rate cut outcome. She is forecasting additional 25 basis point cuts in November and December.
Persons: Biden, Dow, Dow Jones, Seema Shah Organizations: Intel, Futures, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Apple, Fed, CME Group's, September's National Association of Home Builders Housing
The S & P 500 rebounded 4% this past week, almost clawing back all of the prior week's horrible decline. Fed watch The Fed is the big market event this week. ET: Fed rate decision Before the bell: General Mills (GIS) After the bell: Steelcase (SCS) Thursday, Sept. 19 8:30 a.m. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jensen Huang's, Goldman Sachs, Jim, Huang, Lisa Su, Su, Vimal Kapur, Morgan, Brian Niccol, Wells, Morgan Stanley, Jerome Powell, They're, Lennar, Doug Yearley, Mills, LEN, Jim Cramer's, Spencer Platt Organizations: Federal, Dow, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Club, Technology, CNBC, Oracle, Devices, TAM, Apple, Honeywell, Starbucks, Barclays Global Financial Services, Fed, FedEx, homebuilder, Home Depot, Darden, Jim Cramer's Charitable, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: Las Vegas, U.S, America, Horton, New York City
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementThe exodus is mainly being driven by higher housing costs, a higher cost of living, and souring attitudes toward the influx of people who moved to Florida in recent years. Property insurance costs in the state are rising at the fastest pace in 20 years, according to Capital Economics. According to Cindy, her home insurance costs around $8,000 a year. The cost of living has also risen, in part due to rising housing costs and more people living in the city.
Persons: , who's, Cindy, isn't, Rafael Corrales, Corrales, Kevin, hadn't, it's, Bill McBride, McBride, That's, It's, Darryl Fairweather, Redfin, Fairweather Organizations: Service, Business, Tampa —, Capital Economics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington DC, Florida Department of Law, Sunshine State Locations: Florida, Sunshine, Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, South Florida, Miami, St, Pete, Seattle, New York, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach, Petersburg, Clearwater, Florida's
AdvertisementBut Americans are not a monolith, as Jefferies consumer strategist Carey Kaufman pointed out in a note to clients Tuesday. Heading into the autumn, a considerable number of those in the bottom quintile appear to be running on borrowed time. Dollar Tree, which owns Family Dollar, reported similar consumer headwinds during its quarterly earnings this month. "What we noticed was an even tighter core consumer at the very last week of each of the months in Q2," he said. "While that's always a tighter week of the month for our core consumer, it was by far the weakest."
Persons: , Carey Kaufman, Ted Vasos, Vasos, David Bellinger, Ryan Grimsland, Will Stengel, Ally, Russell Hutchinson, paychecks aren't, that's, Bellinger Organizations: Service, Walmart, Costco, Business, Jefferies, Goldman, Global Retailing, Mizuho, Reuters, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
Retail giant Walmart is among this week's most overbought stocks, with an 14-day RSI reading of 81.7. The average price target on the Oakland, California-based stock is nearly 10% below the stock's current price, suggesting a pullback may lie ahead. Analysts estimate Halliburton and APA might rally nearly 60% each, while Occidental's price target is 38% above its current level. The average price target on the Oakland, California-based stock is nearly 10% below the stock's current price, suggesting a pullback may lie ahead. Analysts estimate Halliburton and APA might rally nearly 60% each, while Occidental's price target is 38% above its current level.
Persons: Clorox, Johnson, Let's, Gabby Jones, Cooper Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, CNBC Pro, Retail, Walmart, Consumer, Johnson, Energy, Halliburton, APA, . Occidental Petroleum, Occidental Petroleum, Pharmaceutical, Moderna, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Getty, UDR UDR, Inc, Oracle Corp, CNBC, HAL Halliburton, APA APA Corp, Occidental Petroleum Corp, Walgreens, Body Locations: Arkansas, Oakland , California, Secaucus , New Jersey
Gold rallies to record high on U.S. rate-cut optimism
  + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
One kilogram gold bars are displayed for a photograph at the YLG Bullion International headquarters in Thailand on January 13, 2016. Gold prices soared to an all-time high on Friday as the dollar weakened amid prospects of a U.S. interest rate cut next week, while palladium has gained 15% so far this week. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,565 per ounce, as of 0258 GMT, after hitting a record high of $2,567.93 earlier in the session. The dollar fell to a one-week low, making gold less expensive for other currency holders. Palladium climbed 0.16% to $1,048.06 and was headed for the best week since Dec. 11, 2023, fueled by export curb concerns.
Persons: Bullion, Tim Waterer, Vladimir Putin Organizations: KCM, Monetary Fund, Fed, West Locations: Thailand, U.S, Moscow
But as a general rule, economists tend to agree that, for U.S. consumers, higher tariffs tend to mean higher prices. "They'll be buying things at higher prices than they otherwise would." Still, a number of organizations say that Trump's new tariff policy would have a negative tangible effect on American consumers' finances. Plus, financial experts say a more aggressive tariff policy could be viewed as a form of economic saber-rattling. It tends to lead to higher prices for consumers in both countries."
Persons: Trump, Howard Gleckman, Kamala Harris, Biden, Donald Trump, Harris, George Ball, Sanders Morris, Clark Bellin, Sam Millette Organizations: Urban, Brookings Tax Policy Center, CNBC, U.S, Trump, U.S ., American Progress, Peterson Institute for International, Commonwealth Financial Network Locations: China, U.S,
Between 2021 and 2022, average annual grocery prices were up 11.4%, the highest increase since 1979. In this episode of "Just the Facts," the US Economy and your Pocketbook. Let's take a look at the economy and how it is working or not working for you. To measure inflation, let's start by looking at the Consumer Price Index, or CPI. Between 2021 and 2022, average annual grocery prices were up 11.4%, the highest increase since 1979, and they grew another 5% between 2022 and 2023.
Persons: Steve Ballmer, USAFacts, COVID, it's, There's Organizations: Insider Studios, LA Clippers, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Real, Social Security Locations: America, United
U.S. stock futures were little changed Thursday evening as traders sought to shake off a sluggish September. S&P 500 futures traded near the flatline. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added just 0.03%, and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.02%. During Thursday's regular trading, investors snapped up shares of Big Tech names, including Nvidia , lifting the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite for a fourth consecutive day. The three major averages are also on track to post weekly gains, with the S&P 500 up 3.5% and the Nasdaq on track for a 5.3% jump.
Persons: Dan Greenhaus, Dow Organizations: Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Big Tech, Nvidia, Dow, Salesforce, Microsoft, Federal, Management Locations: U.S
The CEO of Swiss banking giant UBS said Thursday that the fight against inflation isn't over yet, and some investors seem to be getting too ahead of themselves in expecting that the U.S. Federal Reserve could pull an aggressive rate cut this month. "I think the market seems to be a little bit too ahead of the curve in expecting the Fed to go so aggressively," Sergio Ermotti, Group CEO of UBS Group AG, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia." The question of whether the Fed will lower rates at the end of its next policy meeting September 18 has largely been answered. The only question that remains is: by how much. The "most important" issue that the Fed needs consider is still inflation, which remains sticky and not yet "totally under control," Ermotti added.
Persons: Sergio Ermotti, CNBC's, Ermotti Organizations: UBS, U.S . Federal, UBS Group AG, Fed Locations: U.S
Dollar firm as inflation data douse bets for big Fed rate cut
  + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar traded near a four-week high versus the euro on Thursday after signs of some stickiness in U.S. inflation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would avoid a super-sized interest rate cut next week. The dollar traded near a four-week high versus the euro on Thursday after signs of some stickiness in U.S. inflation reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve would avoid a super-sized interest rate cut next week. Meanwhile, a quarter-point rate reduction from the European Central Bank is widely expected later on Thursday, with investors anxious for hints on how soon the monetary authority will cut again. Early on Wednesday, Bank of Japan board member Junko Nakagawa reinforced the central bank's tightening bias by saying low real rates leave room for further rate hikes. As a result, traders essentially priced out the chances of a 50-basis point rate cut on Sept. 18, paring the odds to 15% versus 85% probability for a 25-bp reduction.
Persons: Junko Nakagawa, Naoki Tamura, Tony Sycamore Organizations: Federal, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, IG, ECB, Sterling, Swiss Locations: U.S
Gold inches higher as investors eye U.S. data for rate cues
  + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, with traders focusing on the upcoming U.S. economic data that may offer further insights into an expected reduction in the Federal Reserve's interest rate next week. Gold prices edged higher on Thursday, with traders focusing on the upcoming U.S. economic data that may offer further insights into an expected reduction in the Federal Reserve's interest rate next week. Data on Wednesday showed that U.S. consumer prices rose marginally in August, but underlying inflation showed some stickiness, which could discourage the Federal Reserve from delivering a half-point interest rate cut next week. CPI data showed no major inflation spikes, which is supporting gold prices to hold above $2,500 and suggesting no immediate changes to Fed policy, Wong added. Palladium climbed 1.3% to $1,021.84, its highest since July 8, following comments on export regulations from Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Persons: Kelvin Wong, OANDA's, Price, Wong, Vladimir Putin, Putin Organizations: Asia Pacific, Traders, U.S, PPI, Reserve, West Locations: U.S, Moscow
We started buying Home Depot shares last week as a play on housing and interest rates. Our Home Depot investment thesis is all about a pickup in housing turnover, the main driver of the home improvement retailer's sales. When rates went below 6.5% toward the end of last year, he explained, there was an immediate increase in housing activity, mortgage applications, and mortgage refinance applications. Mortgage rates with a 5% handle could be on the horizon, at least that's what Toll Brothers CEO Doug Yearley thinks. With these numbers, it's easy to see why Decker is optimistic that activity will normalize, and housing turnover and remodel activity will pick-up again.
Persons: Ted Decker, Doug Yearley, Yearley, Decker, Lowe's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Home Depot, Dow, Depot, Toll, Home, Management, CNBC
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Big price reportsThe U.S. consumer price index for August comes out later today, while the producer price index, which measures prices at the wholesale level, will be released a day later. They're the last major economic data the Federal Reserve will receive — and hence influence its decision on the size of cuts — before its meeting next week. Separately, JPMorgan shares fell 5.19% after the bank's president Daniel Pinto lowered expectations for next year's net interest income.
Persons: Dow, Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, stagflation, Daniel Pinto Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Continental, BMW, Federal Reserve, JPMorgan, U.S, Apple Intelligence Apple Locations: Basel
Don't get caught up in the debate on large-cap versus small-cap stocks — the real Goldilocks opportunity lies in mid-cap stocks, according to Goldman Sachs. "Today, mid-cap equities offer investors superior earnings growth at a reasonable price compared with large-caps," Ma wrote in a Tuesday note. "Mid-cap stocks have typically outperformed both large-caps and small-caps during the 12 months following the first Fed rate cut in an easing cycle," she added. In addition, mid-caps have "stronger fundamentals" compared with small-cap names, Ma noted. Here are some of Ma's favorite mid-cap names that are both high quality with potential to grow.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Russell, Jenny Ma, Ma, Ma's Organizations: Neurocrine Biosciences, BioMarin Pharmaceutical
CNBC Daily Open: Lower rates might hurt banks
  + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Tough environment for European companiesChina's environment for businesses is so thorny that European companies have grown discouraged with operating in the country, according to the EU Chamber of Commerce. If European companies were to invest in China further, Beijing must act on its pledges to improve the business conditions, the chamber's paper wrote. CNBC Pro looked for companies headquartered overseas, but listed in the U.S. – and may experience over 100% upside, according to analysts.
Persons: Morgan, Dow, First Harris, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, Taylor Swift, Harris, Cat Lady Organizations: Canary, CNBC, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, U.S ., Trump, EU Chamber of Commerce, Federal Reserve Locations: Wharf, London, United Kingdom, Asia, Pacific, fracking, China, Instagram, Beijing, U.S
Gold prices holds steady with U.S. CPI data on radar
  + stars: | 2024-09-11 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold bars and gold coins of different sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Gold prices steadied on Wednesday, as investors keenly awaited the U.S. inflation data for hints on the size of the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut next week. The U.S. Consumer Price Index data is due at 1230 GMT, while the Producer Price Index reading and initial jobless claims are due on Thursday. The Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at each of the three remaining policy meetings in 2024, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll. Zero-yield bullion tends to be a preferred investment amid lower interest rates and geopolitical turmoil.
Persons: Matt Simpson, Price, Jerome Powell's, Peter Fung, Yoav Gallant Organizations: Aurum, Federal, Index, U.S, Consumer, Metals Locations: Gaza, Lebanon
The yield on the 10-year Treasury was nearly 2 basis points lower at 3.625%, with the 2-year Treasury yield down 2 basis points at 3.586%. Treasury yields dipped on Wednesday as investors awaited the release of U.S. inflation data for clues on the size of a potential interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week. The reports come ahead of the Fed's Sept 17-18 meeting, with traders widely expecting a rate cut. Others have described such a move as one that would be "very dangerous" for markets, pushing instead for the Fed to deliver a quarter-point rate cut instead. Traders are currently pricing in a 67% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut, with 33% expecting a 50-basis-point rate reduction, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.
Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Fed Locations: U.S
Then on July 11, things really got started as June CPI came in below expectations and the outlook for the first Fed rate cut became significantly more likely. Let's drill down into the sectors that makeup the Russell 2000 to see who's leading and lagging since that July 5th turning point. Let's find out who is actually profitable and could maintain the rally after the initial shine of a fresh rate cut wears off. Where to look in small caps A big component of the Russell 2000 based on market capitalization representation is health care at 18.7%. Should the Fed strike a dovish tone after the first rate cut I will be shopping for quality names.
Persons: Russell, Piper Sandler, Hamilton Lane, Jefferies, JEF, Todd Gordon, Gordon, ARES Organizations: Nasdaq, Inside Edge, CNBC PRO, Ares Management, Fed, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: financials
Two U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission members are urging the agency to probe safety practices of "foreign-owned" e-commerce platforms such as Shein and Temu, specifically the alleged sale of "deadly baby and toddler products." "Our interests are aligned with the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) in ensuring consumer protection and product safety, and we will cooperate fully with any investigation," the Temu spokesperson said. CPSC officials have asked for more funding to hire staffers to monitor emerging e-commerce platforms such as Temu and Shein over safety practices, according to The Information. Last April, a congressional commission released a report detailing issues with Shein, Temu and other "Chinese 'fast fashion' platforms.'" They alleged the sites have numerous product safety hazards, are connected to the use of forced labor and are exploiting trade loopholes, among other concerns.
Persons: Peter Feldman, Douglas Dziak, Temu, Shein Organizations: U.S, Consumer Product Safety, U.S . Consumer Product Safety, Discount, Google, PDD Holdings, Amazon, CNBC Locations: U.S, China
It followed tens of thousands of complaints from Care.com customers, including many who thought they canceled memberships but were billed again. The FTC said Care.com enticed customers to buy auto-renewing memberships by overstating the number of jobs, or "gigs," on its platform and how much people could earn from them. It said Care.com knew or should have known a significant number of the jobs were unlikely to result in employment. About 2.9 million U.S. consumers bought Care.com auto-renewing memberships between January 2019 and March 2022. "Care.com used inflated job numbers and baseless earnings claims to lure caregivers onto its platform, and used deceptive design practices to trap consumers in subscriptions," FTC consumer protection chief Samuel Levine said.
Persons: Care.com, Samuel Levine Organizations: Federal Trade Commission, IAC Inc, FTC, Austin Locations: Care.com, Waltham , Massachusetts, Austin , Texas
NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia Wall Street is bullish heading into Nvidia's earnings results next week, figuring any hiccups to its next generation AI chips does little to dim the earnings potential of a company that essentially has a monopoly on the market. Economists polled by FactSet anticipate PCE to show increases of 0.2% month on month and 2.6% from the year-earlier period. Wall Street anticipates that stocks could go higher from here, though the road from now to the end of the year could be bumpy. Other notable earnings results include tech names Salesforce and CrowdStrike, as well as consumer names such as Campbell Soup, Dollar General and Ulta Beauty. Earnings: Nvidia , Bath & Body Works , J. M. Smucker , Salesforce , CrowdStrike , NetApp , HP Thursday Aug. 29 8:30 a.m.
Persons: Nvidia's, chipmaker, they've, Harsh Kumar, Piper Sandler, Blackwell, Jensen Huang, Jim Cramer, Kumar, Louis Navellier, Jerome Powell, Jackson, Powell, FactSet, David Miller, Miller, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, He's, Campbell, Lululemon Organizations: Nvidia, Blackwell, Navellier, Associates, Federal Reserve, PCE, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, U.S, Catalyst Funds, Ulta, Dallas Fed, Richmond Fed, Body, HP, Autodesk, PCE Deflator, Chicago PMI Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Chicago, Michigan
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