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☆ 100 years of stock-market history show the sell-off is likely only half done, says a 30-year market vet who called the downturn. Here are 3 criteria to watch to know when the worst is over.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-19 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Jon Wolfenbarger thinks stock-market investors are still too optimistic that a bear market bottom is coming sometime in the immediate-to-near future. When bear markets occur when valuations are relatively high, the bear markets tend to drag on longer. The median bear market length during periods of high valuation among those listed above is 17 months, Wolfenbarger said, compared to 13 months when valuations are attractive. Given that the current market sell-off began amid some of the highest valuations in history, Wolfenbarger said he expects the bear market to last 17 months or longer. Wolfenbarger's views in contextIn June, Societe Generale conducted a similar analysis to Wolfenbarger's and looked at bear markets over the last 150 years.

☆ Confessions of a personal finance reporter (Part Two): 3 more of my worst money mistakes
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-23 | by ( Sarah O'Brien | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Salvatore AgostinoI tried to time the stock market because I 'knew' where it was headedI was at least a couple decades into adulthood when I decided I could see into the future. That is, I just knew the stock market was on the verge of dropping and would stay down for a while. This crystal ball-reading talent emerged as I rolled over money from an old 401(k) into my then-current retirement account. That is, I knew that the stock market generally rose over time and was a good place to put long-term savings, such as for retirement. Now, this was long enough ago that I have no memory of the fund's performance or my account balance when I eventually moved the money to another retirement account.

We want firms that are profitable, that have real earnings right now. This is related to the idea of avoiding expensive stocks, which we'll talk about later. A key reason we're looking to avoid expensive stocks is because long-term rates are rising, in addition to the short end of yield curve influenced by Fed action. For example, a stock that trades at 30 times earnings is more expensive than a rival company that trades at 15 times earnings. But for the purposes of this particular story, it's important to understand that expensive stocks are more vulnerable to seeing their multiples contract in this current environment.

A day trader in her 20s will have much different view of stock diversification than a retiree looking to limit risk. Last week, we spoke about how to diversify a stock portfolio to both balance a longer-term view of your holdings while sharpening a shorter-term focus on factors that might necessitate changes. We're breaking this tutorial into seven sections: Understanding correlations Getting a portfolio started Is S & P 500 diversified? To better illustrate, let's consider the current make up of the S & P 500 — the diversification you'd achieve if you put an initial investment into an S & P 500 exchange-traded fund, or ETF. As of March 31, the end of the first quarter, the S & P 500 weighting was as follows: When you buy into an S & P 500 index fund, roughly 28 cents of every dollar goes into technology, while only 2.6 cents go into materials.

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