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☆ The Trump trade: how a red wave could impact stocks, bonds, and commodities
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

Read previewAs we near the November elections, investors are increasingly focused on what a Donald Trump win would mean for global markets and economies. The charts below show how stock sectors moved in the 24 hours after the debate and how a Trump administration might impact sectors with varying regulatory burdens. If Trump wins, investors will need to cut through the noise and at least understand how he might impact different parts of the economy. Where monetary policy is concerned, leading economist Christophe Barraud believes a Trump administration could pressure the Federal Reserve to be very accommodative on rates, in other words, steeper or sooner cuts. It expects a Trump Administration to allow LNG export permits after the Biden Administration attempted to halt them.

Persons: —, Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Joe Biden, Trump, Solita, Samantha Lamas, Goldman, Goldman's Jan Hatzius, Christophe Barraud, Bloomberg Businessweek Trump, Morgan Stanely, Morgan Stanley Organizations: Service, Trump, Business, Trump Media, Technology, UBS, Americas Global Wealth Management, Morningstar, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Businessweek, Korea, Asia Pacific's, Republican, Trump Administration, Biden Locations: Predictit, Mexico, Canada, China, Japan, Germany, Asia, Goldman Sachs, Washington

☆ Mega caps are peaking. Prepare for a reversal by buying 15 lesser-known stocks on a list that's lapped its benchmark since 2008.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

The market's largest stocks are falling back to the pack after driving gains for 18 months. However, leading strategists at BMO Capital Markets say US stocks can build on their gains anyway. Here are 15 small-cap stocks that are well positioned for a market reversal. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementA long-expected shift is sending shockwaves through the stock market, but top minds at BMO Capital Markets say investors with diversified portfolios have nothing to worry about.

Persons: —, Russell Organizations: BMO Capital Markets, Service, Business

☆ Election chaos and Friday’s tech outage are taking the market on a wild ride
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —Stocks are soaring this year, but that could soon change as election chaos takes the market on a rollercoaster ride. But this has been a destabilizing week for US stocks and the market trajectory could be shifting. The Dow was down more than 430 points, or 1%, in the morning trading session on Friday as the tech outage continued to rattle investors. Former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, said in an interview with Bloomberg that Taiwan should pay for its own defense. The bright sideInvestors have been largely resilient this year and some financial bigwigs say the election won’t change that.

Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Dow, —, “, ”, Jim Reid, Biden, they’re, Scott Wren, Wells, Jerome Powell, Liz Young Thomas, Russell, Young Thomas, ” Trump, CrowdStrike, JPMorgan Chase, Jeremy Barnum, isn’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investors, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Deutsche Bank, Democratic, ”, Treasury, Fed, Tech, Bloomberg, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, JPMorgan Locations: New York, Iran, Israel, Wells Fargo, “, China, Taiwan

☆ UBS just raised its S&P 500 price target for the 4th time this year. Here's how it says stocks can soar 17% by the end of the year.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

UBS increased its S&P 500 year-end price target to 5,900, marking the fourth increase from the bank this year. It added that the S&P 500 could surge 17% to 6,500 by year-end in a bull-case scenario. AdvertisementUBS is once again raising its year-end price target for the S&P 500. UBS initially had a year-end price target of 4,850. Those earnings and price target estimates would represent a historically high price-to-earnings multiple for the S&P 500, but it's warranted, according to Lefkowitz.

Persons: —, David Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz, Lefkowitz materializes Organizations: UBS, Service

☆ What Presidential Election? So Far, the Stock Market Doesn’t Care.
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Jeff Sommer | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: 1 min

With the Republican Convention behind us, the Trump-Vance ticket is the favorite in polls and in markets where you can predict the winner of the presidential race. The stock market has absorbed this information and more. This past Monday, when markets in New York reopened after the attempted assassination of former President Donald J. Trump on Saturday, stocks rose. Celebratory T-shirts are on sale, showing Mr. Trump’s defiant, blood-streaked, near escape from death, as an American flag unfurled against a blue sky. This image, evoking patriotism and courage, contrasts with the sound and pictures of President Biden, looking frail and bewildered during his disastrous performance in the presidential debate last month.

Persons: Vance, Donald J, Trump, Trump’s, Biden Organizations: Republican Convention, Trump Locations: New York, American

☆ 8 of the biggest stock market crashes in history — and how they changed our financial lives
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Rebecca Reisner | Richard Richtmyer | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +20 min

While the triggers for stock market crashes vary, the ultimate outcome is always the same: the market recovers. Here's a summary of eight of the most notable stock market crashes in history, their causes, and their fallout. Stock market crash FAQWhat happens when a stock market crashes? Numerous things can cause a stock market to crash, including:PanicNatural or man-made disastersEconomic crisesSpeculationCan a stock market crash be prevented? Unlike a bear market, stock market corrections are often short and usually work themselves out.

Persons: It's, Terry Marsh, Here's, Stocks, Carola Frydman, J.P, Morgan, —, Blair Hull, Alan Greenspan, Marc Chandler, Marsh, weren't, Tyler Muir, Thai bhat, Paula Bronstein, Stringer, Chandler, chipmaker, WebVan.com, Muir, The, Lehman Brothers, NICHOLAS ROBERTS, homebuyers, Bear, Lehman, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Dodd, Frank Wall, Europe —, Italy — Organizations: Federal Reserve System, SEC, FDIC, Haas School of Business, University of California, Federal Reserve, United Copper Company, UCC, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Federal, System, Dow Jones, Gross, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Securities and Exchange Commission, Dow, Nasdaq, Chicago, Black, Bannockburn Global Forex, UCLA Anderson School of Management, Getty, Asia, International Monetary Fund, chipmaker Qualcomm, The Sarbanes, Oxley, Investors, Financial, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Nikkei, US, Asset, Frank Wall Street Reform, Consumer, Consumer Financial, Dow Jones Industrial, Center, Budget, Stock, Corrections Locations: University of California Berkeley, AFP, Iran, Bannockburn, Japan, Thai, Asia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea, COVID, China, Europe, Italy, Chevron

☆ The 'greatest bubble in human history' is close to bursting, Black Swan investor Mark Spitznagel says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Kelly Cloonan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bearish investor Mark Spitznagel predicts stocks could soon lose over half their value in a steep sell-off. His fund, Universa Investments, has made billions from past stock market crises. AdvertisementBlack Swan investor Mark Spitznagel says the stock market is heading for a historic sell-off, reiterating an uber-bearish warning for investors who are getting comfortable with steady stock gains amid the frenzy for AI. Spitznagel said the years-long rally in the stock market amounts to the "greatest bubble in human history" in a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal. He made billions during the 2008 stock market crash, the 2015 Flash Crash, and at the onset of COVID-19 in early 2020.

Persons: Mark Spitznagel, —, Spitznagel, it's, he's Organizations: Universa Investments, Service, Wall Street, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Universa

☆ Goldman Sachs gets cautious on stocks, sees risk of a late summer correction
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Goldman Sachs is warning clients of a summer correction in the stock market as economic growth slows down and political risks rise. The S & P 500 is up about 16% year to date, just 2% off its record high. Goldman said it sees increasing risk of a correction. Typically, a correction is defined as a 10% drawdown from a recent high in the S & P 500 and a bear market equals to a 20% pullback. The S & P 500 is currently off 2% from its recent high.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Christian Mueller, Goldman, Goldman doesn't, pare Organizations: Dow

☆ Real estate pros agree that rental income isn't 'passive' and are turning to more hands-off strategies
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Kathleen Elkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

It sounds simple enough — rent comes in and, ideally, it's greater than the rental expenses, resulting in positive cash flow — but real estate investors agree that rental income shouldn't be categorized as passive. "You hear that real estate investing is passive, and that's certainly not been my experience," New England-based investor Tess Waresmith, who owns five units, told Business Insider. But when I'm not actively buying, I don't spend much time on real estate." Real estate syndicationWith real estate syndication deals, a group of investors pool together their capital to purchase a single property managed by the syndicator. He recommends starting with an online search for "real estate syndicates" or "commercial real estate syndicates" if you're specifically interested in commercial deals.

Persons: —, that's, Tess Waresmith, Stephen Yin, I'm, Carl, Mindy Jensen, we've, Mindy, Erik Smolinski, Smolinski, hasn't Organizations: Service, Business Locations: New England, Los Angeles, Birmingham, Colorado

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rise as tech tries to bounce back after chip rout
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Weekly jobless claims were higher than expected, boosting rate cut hopes. AdvertisementThe stock market was looking to stage a rebound after a plummet in semiconductor stocks led to a losing session on Wednesday. The chip cohort's tumble came amid reports that the Biden administration would levy fresh restrictions on chip sales to China. The latest jobless claims gave investors new reason to bet on interest rate cuts, as Thursday's report showed claims rose to their highest level in close to a year. Initial jobless claims rose to 243,000 through the week ending July 13, above estimates for 229,000.

Persons: Stocks, —, Biden, Jeffrey Roach Organizations: Semiconductor, Nasdaq, Service, Financial, Labor Locations: China

☆ Stock market today: Dow falls 533 points as tech rout spreads to the broader market
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Major stock indexes were down sharply for a second day on Thursday. A mega-cap retreat expanded into a broader rout, and the S&P 500 fell over 1%. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS indexes declined sharply for a second session this week, as the plunge in leading tech stocks broadened out to the rest of the market.

Persons: —, Russell Organizations: Service, Google, Nvidia, Bloomberg, Federal Locations: China, Here's

☆ The new phase of the US-China tech war risks a whole lot of collateral damage
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Hasan Chowdhury | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Although the company doesn't sell its high-tech lithography machines to China, it does sell a whole lot of other products to Chinese companies. ReutersIt's unclear then if Biden's planned measures would cause more damage to China or ASML. Of course, this is the main piece of ASML tech that Washington wouldn't want China to have access to. Curbing China's access to Western tech is key if the US is serious about holding onto its technology leadership.

Persons: —, Biden, ASML, Biden's, Xi Jinping, Mark Rutte, Wang Gang, Donald Trump, Trump, JD Vance, It'll Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Business, Reuters, Washington, Huawei, Nvidia Locations: US, China, Tokyo, Eindhoven, The Netherlands, Dutch, Beijing, Taiwan, America, TSMC, Arizona

☆ The stock market is flashing warning signs as tech shares are a 'valuation timebomb,' SocGen says
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The SocGen strategist has been warning of a recession and coming stock crash for months. The tech sector is showing a number of signs that valuations are an overstretched "timebomb," he said. AdvertisementThe stock market is flashing warning signs that the tech stock frenzy is about to end, according to one of Wall Street's most bearish analysts. "As time marches on, there are few of us left who were in the industry during the 2000 Nasdaq crash let alone the 1987 crash. Analysts are expecting tech stocks to post forward earnings growth of around 30% year-over-year, Edwards noted, though tech stocks have actually been posting around 20% yearly earnings growth.

Persons: Albert Edwards, —, He's, Edwards, Russell, Morgan Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Nasdaq, Tech

☆ Vietnam Communist Party chief hands power to president as he undergoes medical care
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Story Reuters | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

Reuters —Vietnam’s President To Lam has taken over the duties of Communist Party chief Nguyen Phu Trong who is focusing on an unspecified treatment for his health, the party said on Thursday. The party’s powerful Politburo has tasked him with presiding over “the work of the Party Central Committee, the Politburo and the Secretariat,” according to a statement from the party’s central office. Though Vietnam officially has no paramount ruler, the party chief holds the most powerful position in the Communist-ruled nation. Vietnam's Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong at the Communist Party of Vietnam Headquarters in Hanoi, Vietnam on September 10, 2023. In a surprise move, the Politburo awarded Trong on Thursday with the Gold Star medal, the country’s highest honor for public officials.

Persons: Reuters —, Lam, Nguyen Phu Trong, Trong, Evelyn Hockstein, “, Lam’s, ” Organizations: Reuters, Communist Party, Party Central Committee, Vietnam's Communist Party General, Communist Party of, Marxist, Gold Locations: Vietnam, Communist, Communist Party of Vietnam, Hanoi , Vietnam, China, Hanoi, Western

☆ Chip stocks suffer a mini-meltdown as more potential trade restrictions threaten the industry
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

In today's big story, we're looking at why reports of more potential trade restrictions have chip companies on their heels . Trade restrictions are certainly real concerns for chip companies. AdvertisementThe supply-chain base for most of the chip industry is in Taiwan, specifically TSMC. Politicians and regulators have no interest in making American AI companies less competitive and demand is still extremely high. With so much geopolitical tension, is it possible the chip industry becomes more regionalized?

Persons: —, Dan Schneider's, Rebecca Zisser, Joe Biden, Insider's Kelly Cloonan, Biden, chipmakers, Trump, Emma Cosgrove, It's, Marianne Ayala, aren't, Dan Ives, influencers, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Tyler Le, Elon Musk, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Dan Schneider's Nickelodeon, Business, Nvidia, AMD, Bloomberg, China, YouTube, JPMorgan, Apple, Republican National Convention, Netflix Locations: China, Netherlands, Taiwan, Texas, California, New York, London

☆ Ron Insana sees political risk rising for investors as the presidential election heats up
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Ron Insana | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The selloff in the Nasdaq on Wednesday, more specifically in semiconductor stocks, has added a relatively new wrinkle to what has been an unexpectedly exceptional year for stocks: political risk. And by that I do not mean the outcome of the 2024 presidential election , per se, but the risk of trial balloons being floated for the next several months leading up to the election. Two news items on Wednesday rocked the chip stocks as the Biden administration is reportedly considering much tighter constraints on chip sales to China . Competing proposals We've already heard of some of the potential policy prescriptions that either a Biden or Trump administration might pursue beginning in 2025. Some may never see the light of day depending, not only on the outcome of the presidential election, but also on the composition of the next Congress.

Persons: Biden, Donald Trump, Trump Organizations: Nasdaq, U.S, Biden, Federal Locations: China, Taiwan, Trump, U.S

☆ Quant prop-trading firm Hudson River Trading hopes to supercharge its trading power by partnering with Google Cloud
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Bianca Chan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

New York-based Hudson River Trading is best known for its market-making capabilities. Hudson River Trading winning any trade over its competitors, like Citadel Securities, Virtu, and Jane Street, comes down to its pricing engine. To help it get there, Hudson River Trading turned to Google Cloud, where its quants have been conducting their research for several months without the constraints of an on-premise environment. "Google Cloud allows us to do that without limits to computing power." Advertisement"In other words, what I'm saying is that we need to predict the future of the stock market," Dunning said.

Persons: —, Jane Street, Iain Dunning, Kevin Lee, Dunning, Ken Griffin's, Italo Brito, Brito Organizations: Service, Hudson, Hudson River Trading, Citadel Securities, Virtu, Business, Trading, Google, Nvidia, HRT, Sigma Locations: New York, Hudson

☆ Bull vs. bear: What to expect from the U.S. economy and the stock market?
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBull vs. bear: What to expect from the U.S. economy and the stock market? Sebastian Raedler, equity strategist at Bank of America, debates with Hani Redha, portfolio manager at PineBridge Investments, on where the U.S. economy is heading and how the stock market might perform in the near future.

Persons: Sebastian Raedler, Hani Redha Organizations: Bank of America, PineBridge Investments Locations: U.S

☆ Small-cap ETF poised to break out to all-time high and perhaps beyond, according to the charts
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Frank Cappelleri | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

As is clear, that objective is considerably higher than the 2021 peak, which was the last time IWM made a new all-time high. The obvious question then would be this: If IWM does, in fact, make a new all-time high, what happens next? First, notice how well the IWM/SPX relative line performed as it rallied from a key low to a peak since 2011. Conversely, during the three times that IWM has broken out to new highs in absolute terms, the IWM/SPX relative line has declined soon thereafter. In fact, the relative line has been diverging from IWM for 13 years and hasn't made a higher high since 2011.

Persons: Russell, IWM, shouldn't, What's, hasn't, Frank Cappelleri Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: IWM

☆ Investors to decide if the one-week rotation into small caps can last all summer
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A week ago, investors were scoffing at the idea that small caps and value stocks might have a genuine summer rally. The S & P 500 Value ETF (IVE) , which holds stocks like Berkshire Hathaway , JP Morgan , Exxon Mobil and Johnson & Johnson , finally hit a new high after lagging the tech-dominated S & P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) for more than a year. This fund holds the entire stock market, minus the S & P 500. VXF 1M mountain Vanguard Extended Market ETF over the past month. This trend of buying small caps and value is clearly more than a one-day wonder: It's now a one-week wonder.

Persons: Berkshire Hathaway, JP Morgan, Johnson, Dave Nadig, Russell Organizations: Exxon Mobil, Johnson, Value, Opportunity Locations: Berkshire, United States

☆ Chip Shares Tumble, Dragging Wall Street to Its Worst Drop in Weeks
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Danielle Kaye | More About Danielle Kaye | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The S&P 500 fell 1.39 percent, its biggest drop since late April, just one day after the index reached a record. The technology-heavy Nasdaq dropped 2.77 percent, its worst day since late 2022. The decline was led by global chip stocks, with shares of some of the biggest players in the chip industry — including ASML, Nvidia and TSMC — plunging in response to geopolitics and the former president’s remarks. Shares of these companies have surged this year amid a rise in demand for advanced artificial intelligence chips. “Excellent, sustained performance, such as we saw in the semiconductor sector, may have led the trade to become ‘crowded,’ and therefore more fragile.”

Persons: Donald J, ”, Steve Sosnick Organizations: Trump, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Interactive Locations: U.S, China, Taiwan

☆ A self-made millionaire shares the money advice she'd give her 20-year-old self, including mistakes to avoid
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Kathleen Elkins | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

"I was very lucky that I started from zero with my financial journey," the New England-based 36-year-old told Business Insider. AdvertisementThe financial educator, whose mission is to help young women grow their wealth, didn't get to where she is without a bit of trial and error. AdvertisementWhen you first start investing, "it can feel like it takes some time," she noted. "But once you start building wealth, whether it's in real estate or the stock market, your efforts really do start to compound. Overpaying for a financial advisorWhen Waresmith eventually put her cash to work in the stock market around 2013, she paid a financial advisor to manage her portfolio.

Persons: —, Tess Waresmith, Waresmith, Tess, didn't, she'd, hasn't Organizations: Service, Boston University, Business Locations: England, America

☆ Sam Stovall sees double-digit correction – says rally gone too far and big caps expensive
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The rotation trade likely won't save the S & P 500 from a double-digit correction ahead, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research. On the other hand, the mega-cap tech stocks have faltered. But Stovall is skeptical, saying he anticipates an S & P 500 pullback ahead, possibly in September, in the low double-digits. Expensive valuations Central to the strategist's concern is the overbought nature of large-cap tech stocks. Rotate into very attractive mid- and small-cap stocks or mid- and small-cap ETFs," Stovall said.

Persons: Sam Stovall, Stocks, Jerome Powell, Russell, Stovall Organizations: CFRA Research, Federal, Nvidia, CNBC Locations: Great

☆ Temasek aims to invest up to $10 billion in India as China weighs
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Beautiful and colorful aerial view of Mumbai skyline during twilight seen from Currey Road, on Feb. 16, 2022 in Mumbai, India. India accounts for 7% of Temasek's global exposure which it wants to increase further, said Mohit Bhandari, the company's managing director for India investments. "We are bullish in India for the long term," Bhandari said in an interview at Temasek's Mumbai office. Temasek last week said that profits from investments in the United States and India were helping it cushion the impact of underperformance in China. Temasek also said that it is taking a cautious approach to China amid trade tensions.

Persons: Mohit Bhandari, Bhandari Organizations: Temasek Locations: Mumbai, India, Singapore, China, United States, Temasek

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rise as traders assess earnings and retail sales beat estimates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bank of America earnings topped estimates, and shares rose early Tuesday. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks climbed higher as fresh data indicated that consumers were still spending. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.4% against estimates of a 0.1% increase. In the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield slid moderately, after comments dovish were made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.

Persons: —, Robert Frick, dovish, Jerome Powell Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Navy Federal Credit Union, Bloomberg, Treasury, Federal

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