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New York CNN —Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision will likely be pretty boring for investors — officials are widely expected to keep interest rates the same, just as they have since July 2023. They think that the Fed may curtail its quantitative tightening (QT) program — that’s the selling off of its assets to decrease money supply and increase interest rates — by as much as half. Those purchases ended up pushing down interest rates in certain parts of the economy, like housing and auto sales. That led to a “repo crisis”, where the interest rates for overnight loans between banks spiked unusually high. That’s because a taper should send bond prices higher, and interest rates lower.
Persons: there’s, Jamie Dimon, Jerome Powell doesn’t, Krishna Guha, Marco Casiraghi, , Bill Adams, Biden, reclassify, General Merrick Garland, Xochitl Hinojosa, , Nancy Mace, Earl Blumenauer, ” Read, Zhao, Allison Morrow, ” Binance Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Fed, JPMorgan Chase, Comerica Bank, Bank of America, CNN, US Department of Justice, Federal Register, Congress, Associated Press, Republican, CZ, Binance, Bloomberg Locations: New York, South Carolina, Oregon, Seattle
Dollar a tad softer as markets wait for Fed
  + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Japan's yen was at 158.05 per dollar, up nearly 0.2% in quiet trading with Tokyo markets closed for the first of the country's Golden Week holidays. "The bar is pretty high for a sustained hawkish surprise, which would in turn lift yields," he said, referring to the Fed. "The BOJ disappointment might be transcribed onto the FOMC insofar that they may be more undecided than decidedly hawkish." The Fed is seen holding its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25%-to-5.5% at the April 30-May 1 meeting. Markets are also on guard for any intervention by Japanese authorities to contain the yen's nearly 11% fall this year.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Vishnu Varathan, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Bank of, Mizuho Bank, Market Committee Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Bank of Japan, Asia, Singapore
Yen at its weakest in decades as BOJ meets
  + stars: | 2024-04-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The yen was parked by a 34-year low on the dollar and decade lows on other crosses ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting where interest rates are expected to stay low, while the dollar dipped elsewhere on softer-than-expected U.S. growth data. The yen , however, fell to its weakest since 1990 at 155.75 per dollar, tracking a sharp rise in U.S. yields as separate figures showed a surge in an inflation measure. The size and persistence of the yield gap has encouraging short yen positions and drives Japanese money into dollar assets such as Treasuries, weighing on the currency. The Bank of Japan already hiked rates at a landmark meeting in March where it ended years of negative interest rates. The New Zealand dollar was a touch firmer in Asia morning trade at $0.5960 and has gained in the previous four sessions.
Persons: , Shunichi Suzuki, Nathan Swami, I'm, Sterling Organizations: Bank of Japan, Japanese Finance, Bank of, Citi's, New Zealand Locations: Asia, Bank of Japan, Citi's Asia, Pacific, Singapore
Aussie, New Zealand dollars tumble on risk-off moves; yen rises
  + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The risk-sensitive Australian dollar tumbled 0.8% to $0.6370, and the New Zealand dollar fell 0.63% to $0.5864. ABC News reported late on Thursday that Israeli missiles have hit a site in Iran, citing a U.S. official. The shift in rate expectations has come on the back of a slew of resilient U.S. economic data that has repeatedly surpassed expectations, alongside still-sticky inflationary pressures. "Although policy easing may arrive a bit later than previously expected, we still believe the FOMC will start cutting rates before the year is out," said economists at Wells Fargo. Against a basket of currencies, the greenback rose 0.1% to 106.28, hovering near a more than five-month high of 106.51.
Persons: Carol Kong, I'm, Kazuo Ueda, it'll, CBA's, Jerome Powell Organizations: New, Hamas, U.S ., U.S, New Zealand, ABC News, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, ECB Locations: New Zealand, Iran, United States, Japan, South Korea, U.S, CBA's Kong, Wells Fargo
The IMF said Wednesday that increased government spending, growing public debt and elevated interest rates in the United States had contributed to high and volatile yields — or interest rates — on Treasuries, raising the risk of higher rates elsewhere. “Loose fiscal policy in the United States exerts upward pressure on global interest rates and the dollar,” Vitor Gaspar, director of the IMF’s fiscal affairs department, told reporters. Higher interest rates make it more costly for households and businesses to service their loans, which can lead to defaults that cause losses at banks and other lenders, increasing financial instability. That means that even if the Fed cuts interest rates later this year — the IMF’s central scenario — US government funding costs may not fall by the same margin, he added. The IMF expects US public debt to continue rising, helping drive government debt worldwide to close to 100% of global gross domestic product by 2029, from 93% last year.
Persons: ” Vitor Gaspar, , Jerome Powell, ” Tobias Adrian, Gaspar, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, That’s Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Treasury, US, Federal Locations: United States, Washington
download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS futures were little changed on Tuesday morning after a losing start to the week for all three major indices on Monday as investors worried about the Israel-Iran conflict. Nasdaq 100 futures were also level, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 0.1%. The combination of solid retail sales data and the risk-off nature of the Israel-Iran conflict saw yields on treasuries advance three basis points the previous day. Elsewhere, the release of strong March retail sales data on Monday signaled the resilience of the US economy, but also pushed back chances that the Fed will cut interest rates in June.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , Jerome Powell, Philip Jefferson, Johnson Organizations: Bank of America, Service, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Treasury, Federal, IMF, United Health, Johnson Locations: Israel, Iran
Our purchase of Best Buy is part of our gradual scaling up in this newer position. We've been buying Best Buy in anticipation of a rebound in the PC market as pandemic-era purchases near their replacement or upgrade windows. In addition, Best Buy management increased the payout by 2.2% this year — a good sign of confidence in the company's future. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.
Persons: Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, We've, Jim Organizations: BBY, Coterra Energy, Constellation Brands, Morning, IDC, CNBC Locations: Treasuries
S&P 500 futures added 0.2% and Nasdaq-100 futures advanced 0.3%. The losses caused the Dow to shed 2.4% last week for its worst week since March 2023 and its second down week in a row. The S&P 500 slid 1.5% for its worst week since October 2023. Iran launched drones and missiles on Israel on Saturday night, marking the first direct attack on Israel from Iranian territory. Guha added that the a key question remaining is how Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will respond to the attack.
Persons: Dow, Krishna Guha, Evercore, Guha, Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden, Netanyahu, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Iran's, Dow, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Global Policy, Central Bank Strategy, Israel, T, Treasury, JPMorgan Locations: Israel, Iran
Yen feels the heat as U.S. Treasury yields climb
  + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The greenback added 0.03% to 151.87 yen , holding near a 34-year high of 151.975 yen hit last month as Japanese officials continued to ramp up their jawboning efforts in a bid to defend the currency. The threat of intervention from Tokyo has kept the dollar from breaching the closely-watched 152 yen level, even as U.S. Treasury yields — which the dollar/yen pair tends to closely track — climb. Sterling tacked on 0.04% to $1.2658, while the euro steadied at $1.0860, holding near a two-week high. Despite a rise in U.S. Treasury yields the dollar has failed to draw meaningful support as traders reassess their expectations of the pace and scale of Federal Reserve rate cuts priced in by markets for later this year. That's come even as the two-year Treasury yield rose to an over four-month high of 4.8010% on Tuesday, while the benchmark 10-year yield likewise held near an over four-month peak and last stood at 4.4278%.
Persons: Shunichi Suzuki, Ryota Abe, Sterling, That's, It's, Ray Attrill Organizations: Treasury, Finance, SMBC, New Zealand, National Australia Bank Locations: U.S, Tokyo, United States
Yields may be down from last year's highs, but there is still plenty for income investors to like about investment-grade corporate bonds, according to UBS. The effective yield on the ICE BofA U.S. Corporate Bond Index , which tracks the performance of U.S. dollar-denominated investment-grade corporate debt, is currently hovering around 5.5%. "This measures IG's return over duration-matched Treasuries, meaning that it's been advantageous to own IG over U.S. government bonds," he added. Inside the investment grade market, UBS prefers the financial sector over nonfinancial issuers, and favors short- and intermediate-term duration. Meanwhile, the spread pickup from A-rated bonds to BBB-rated bonds is historically tight, on average.
Persons: Barry McAlinden, McAlinden, Fitch Organizations: UBS, ICE, Corporate, ., Treasury, Poor's
Chart Master: Rates heading lower?
  + stars: | 2024-04-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChart Master: Rates heading lower? Carter Worth, Worth Charting, joins the 'Fast Money' traders with his technical take on treasuries.
Persons: Carter Worth Locations: Carter
.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, YTD Here's a scouting report covering a few relevant themes at play heading into the second quarter. The tenacious tape The behavior of the market itself is perhaps the strongest selling point for a bullish outlook from here. After the S & P has returned 10% or more in a first quarter? The index continued higher the following quarter nine of those 11 and was up the remainder of the year all but once. All but one of the previous episodes saw the market higher nine months later, which in this case would take it through 2024.
Persons: It's, YTD, we've, it's, , Joe Kalish, Ned Davis, Organizations: Federal, Ned, Ned Davis Research, Treasury, Fed, JPMorgan, Microsoft, Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, Eaton Corp
Despite enticing alternatives, a fixed-rate mortgage remains the best option for us. With mortgage interest rates still close to 7%, alternative mortgages like adjustable-rate loans and mortgages with shorter maturities are gaining in popularity. AdvertisementThe beauty of the fixed-rate mortgage is that it offers certainty in an uncertain world. Any gain somebody might get with a lower interest rate might be offset by paying more for the house. So, we will be sticking with a fixed-rate mortgage and shopping around for the best rate.
Persons: , Sarah Alvarez, Alvarez, Brandon Bell, Freddie Mac Organizations: Service, William, Mortgage, Business, ARM, Treasury, Street Journal, FG, National Association of Realtors Locations: Austin , Texas
Daniel George worked at Google X and then as a VP for JP Morgan after receiving his Ph.D. in 2018. After finishing my Ph.D. at 24 in 2018, I worked at Google X, leading AI for secret early-stage moonshot projects. When I started working at Google X in Mountain View, California, I made about $270,000 a year. Learn to negotiate payFor my first job at Google X, I was given an offer right after grad school and accepted it immediately. Find a partner who has similar goalsMy wife and I met at Google X.
Persons: Daniel George, Morgan, Daniel, , JP Morgan Organizations: Google, Service, India Institute of Technology, University of Illinois, Invest, JPMorgan, JP Locations: Kerala, India, India Institute of Technology Bombay, Urbana, Champaign, Illinois, San Francisco , New York, Seattle, View , California
Daniel George worked at Google X and then as a VP at JPMorgan after receiving his Ph.D. in 2018. After finishing my Ph.D. at 24 in 2018, I worked at Google X, leading AI for secret early-stage moonshot projects. When I started working at Google X in Mountain View, California, I made about $270,000 a year. Learn to negotiate payFor my first job at Google X, I was given an offer right after grad school and accepted it immediately. Find a partner who has similar goalsMy wife and I met at Google X.
Persons: Daniel George, , JP Morgan Organizations: Google, JPMorgan, Service, Indian Institute of Technology, University of Illinois, Invest Locations: Kerala, India, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, University of Illinois Urbana, Champaign, Illinois, San Francisco , New York, Seattle, View , California
In contrast, monetary policy refers to actions taken by a country's authority on money — the Federal Reserve in the U.S. — to reach a desired economic outcome. Fiscal policy and monetary policy are implemented independently, even as one impacts the other. Expansionary fiscal policy combined with contractionary monetary policy. Contractionary fiscal policy combined with expansionary monetary policy. Now consider a situation in which the Fed is easing its monetary policy while Washington raises taxes, thus reducing after-tax income.
Persons: it's, we've, Apple, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim Organizations: Federal, White House, nab, Federal Reserve, U.S, CNBC, Treasury, Fed, Companies, Jim Cramer's Charitable Locations: U.S, Washington
Other regional bank stocks got slammed: By the end of the day, most saw their stock down by double-digit percentages. Kori Suzuki/ReutersIt’s been exactly one year since that fateful day marked the start of a string of subsequent bank failures. Because of that, “there will be bank failures,” Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned senators in his semi-annual testimony last week. Bruce Van Saun: People like to call last year’s bank failures regional bank failures. Office real estate is just one component of commercial real estate, albeit the most worrisome to banks and economists.
Persons: Bruce Van Saun, NYCB, Kori Suzuki, Reuters It’s, it’s, Jerome Powell, Van Saun, Richard Drew, didn’t, Michael Nagle, Joseph Otting, Otting, CARLOS BARRIA, we’re, we’ve Organizations: New, New York CNN, Citizens Financial Group, New York Community Bank, NYCB, Reuters, CNN, Signature Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Citizens Financial, Providence, Financial Group, Bloomberg, SVB, we’re, SoFi, Citizens, OneWest Bank, CIT Group, REUTERS Locations: New York, Silicon, San Francisco , California, Providence , Rhode Island, Covid
The S & P 500 Volatility Index finished the week near 15 and is in a clear three- month uptrend from its mid-December low near 12, even as the S & P 500 has gained 10% since then. In fact, Friday the market minimized the headline damage to a mere two-thirds-percent dip in the S & P 500 through its signature rotational impulse. Some indicators — such as speculators remaining net short S & P 500 futures and brokerage strategists' muted index targets — imply the helpful wall of worry is not quite fully scaled. Since then, the S & P has delivered a 16.7% annualized total return, even after two bear markets and two other severe/prolonged corrections. And the S & P is only up 7% from its high 26 months ago, hardly in thin air.
Persons: what's, Eli Lilly, Martin Marietta, Nick Colas, Scott Chronert Organizations: Federal, Nvidia, Costco, pharma, Martin Marietta Materials, Vulcan, 3Fourteen Research, NYSE, Nasdaq, DataTrek, Citi
New York CNN —After decades of growth bolstered by low interest rates and easy credit, commercial real estate has hit a wall. I take that as a signal of a potential turn in the CMBS market in terms of the market sentiment. It’s not just all gloom and doom in the CRE market. Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin echoed the idea that the central bank may not cut interest rates this year. OPEC+, a coalition of the world’s top oil producing countries, had announced voluntary oil cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day in November.
Persons: Tracy Chen, Chen, that’s, Bell, Banks aren’t, CMBS, We’ve, they’ve, , Jerome Powell, Torsten Slok, , Tom Barkin, ” Barkin, “ I’m, Eva Rothenberg, Brent, Goldman Sachs Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, New York Community Bancorp, Brandywine, Intercontinental Exchange and Bank of America, outperformance, Fed, New York Community Bank, York Community Bank, Federal, Apollo Global Management, Richmond Federal, CNBC, OPEC, AAA Locations: New York, Japan, Switzerland, Germany, New, New York City, Richmond, OPEC, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, United States
I wondered if ChatGPT would give me good retirement adviceSpeaking of tiresome work, I've spent many years putting off my retirement plan beyond my husband's 401(k). First, I asked Rush and ChatGPT the same question: What are the best retirement strategies for self-employed people? They recommended similar types of accountsRush and ChatGPT had similar suggestions regarding which kinds of retirement savings accounts freelancers should consider. ChatGPT also mentioned determining your risk tolerance and diversifying your investment portfolio accordingly, as well as including healthcare expenses in your retirement plans by contributing to an HSA, and reassessing and adjusting your retirement plans regularly. I'm happy getting retirement advice from a humanBut Rush had a few other suggestions that ChatGPT didn't list in its response to my question.
Persons: ChatGPT, I've, Justin Rush, Rush, it's, they've, doesn't Organizations: Service, Business, Google, IRA
Washington, DC CNN —Mortgage rates climbed for the fourth week in a row, inching closer to 7% just as peak homebuying season gets underway. Since reaching a 20-year high of 7.79% in October, mortgage rates have been slowly falling. The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. Last week, mortgage applications dropped 5.6% from the week before, according to the MBA. Higher home prices pushed loan amounts higher in January, offsetting what was a monthly decline in mortgage rates, said Edward Seiler, MBA’s associate vice president for housing economics.
Persons: Freddie Mac, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Khater, Bob Broeksmit, Mike Fratantoni, Edward Seiler, MBA’s, Lawrence Yun Organizations: DC CNN —, , Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, National Association of Realtors Locations: Washington
Berkshire is making bank on bonds, and its $168 billion cash pile is worth more than Uber or Nike. Assets aplentyBerkshire held $561 billion of net assets at the end of December, a 19% increase from a year earlier. Berkshire's $1 trillion-plus of assets included $354 billion of stocks, $178 billion of property and equipment, $130 billion of Treasury bills, and $24 billion of inventories. That figure is larger than the value of General Electric ($167 billion), Comcast ($166 billion), Uber ($162 billion), Nike ($160 billion), Walmart ($159 billion), American Express ($156 billion), or Pfizer ($155 billion). The upshot is that on December 31, Berkshire held $354 billion of stocks, and $168 billion of cash and other short-term investments — a ratio of nearly 2:1.
Persons: Warren Buffett's, Buffett, , Warren Buffett, you'd, Cash, Treasuries, Charlie Munger Organizations: Berkshire Hathaway's, Nike, Service, Berkshire Hathaway, Berkshire, aplenty, Berkshire's, Electric, Comcast, Walmart, American Express, Pfizer, Federal Reserve Locations: Berkshire, aplenty Berkshire, Omaha
Mortgage rates rise for the third week in a row to 6.9%
  + stars: | 2024-02-22 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
Washington, DC CNN —Mortgage rates climbed for the third week in a row, inching closer to 7%. Mortgage rates have been making smaller moves over the past two months, after coming down from last year’s high, 7.79%, reached in October. Historically, Khater said, the mix of a strong economy and higher rates didn’t meaningfully impact the housing market. “In essence, Federal Reserve officials are seeking more concrete evidence of sustained improvement in inflation before making any changes,” she said. “The recent increase in mortgage rates has the potential to slow the market by disrupting the plans of many buyers, especially in a market where a significant number of consumers are anticipating lower mortgage rates, not higher,” said Xu.
Persons: Freddie Mac, who’ve, , , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Khater, Jiayi Xu, Powell’s, Xu Organizations: DC CNN —, Federal Reserve, Realtor.com, Federal, Mortgage, Association Locations: Washington
Mortgage rates rise for the second week, reaching 6.77%
  + stars: | 2024-02-15 | by ( Anna Bahney | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Washington, DC CNN —After treading water for months, US mortgage rates jumped higher Thursday following a string of strong employment and inflation reports. “On the heels of consumer prices rising more than expected, mortgage rates increased this week,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. The average mortgage rate is based on mortgage applications that Freddie Mac receives from thousands of lenders across the country. The addition of needed inventory and the prospect of lower mortgage rates this year may spur buyers to jump into the market. “This spring, buyers are likely to see lower mortgage rates than in the fall of 2023, which may mean more eager buyers in the market,” Jones said.
Persons: Freddie Mac, , Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Khater, Bob Broeksmit, Broeksmit, Jerome Powell, Hanna Jones, who’ve, Lisa Sturtevant, Jones, Alicia Huey, ” Jones Organizations: DC CNN, , Mortgage Bankers Association, Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Realtor.com, National Association of Home Builders Locations: Washington,
A lower-cost way to play the S&P 500's run to 5,000
  + stars: | 2024-02-08 | by ( Michael Khouw | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +8 min
The S & P 500 once again closed at a new all-time high, achingly close to 5,000 for those enamored of nice round numbers. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1-year Is there an option trade we can use if we're not sure? If S & P earnings grow closer to their historical average, then $240ish (let's stick to round numbers) might be a more accurate estimate. $240 a shares multiplied by 20 = $4,800 in the S & P. So in that context 5,000 is a little rich, but not much. The VIX Index , a measure of 30 day volatility in the S & P 500, is below 13, cheaper than usual.
Persons: we're, Jeremy Grantham, Paul Krugmans, aren't Organizations: Investors, Nvidia Locations: China, U.S
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