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ORLANDO, Florida, April 10 (Reuters) - Hedge funds started the second quarter positioning for a steeper U.S. yield curve by offloading 10-year U.S. Treasuries futures at one of the fastest rates on record. In one way, betting on a steeper 2s/10s yield curve indicates funds are hoping the trend of recent weeks continues - the curve steepened around 33 basis points in March, the biggest monthly steepening in a decade. The difference is, that was driven by a massive "bull-steepening," buying two-year futures when the banking shock forced funds to cover their near-record short position. In the week through April 4 funds increased their 10-year Treasuries futures net short position by almost 150,000 contracts. A short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise.

☆ Bank of America shares 12 charts that show that the economy is about to enter a full-blown recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

There are growing signs the US economy is about to enter a full-blown recession, said Bank of America. The bank cited worrying signs in manufacturing and the jobs market, and said investors aren't paying attention to the risks. But so far, no recession has materialized as the jobs market and consumer spending have remained fairly resilient. Model is driven by Asian exports, global PMIs, China financial conditions, US yield curve," BofA said. Steepening yield curve often precedes a recessionBank of America"US Treasury 2-year/10-year yield curve flattens and inverts in anticipation of recession.

☆ Growth and quality look like two best performing factors of 2023, says Josh Brown
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailGrowth and quality look like two best performing factors of 2023, says Josh BrownJosh Brown, Steve Weiss, Jenny Harrington, and Jim Lebenthal join 'Halftime Report' to discuss rollover in the labor market, earnings moving down, and the steepening yield curve.

☆ S&P 500 inches higher as stocks try to wrap up short trading week on a high note
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailS&P 500 inches higher as stocks try to wrap up short trading week on a high noteJosh Brown, Steve Weiss, Jenny Harrington, and Jim Lebenthal join 'Halftime Report' to discuss rollover in the labor market, earnings moving down, and the steepening yield curve.

☆ Instant View: Here’s what experts think of India's surprise rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +16 min

The monetary policy committee (MPC) retained the key lending rate or the repo rate (INREPO=ECI) at 6.50% in a unanimous decision. With the likely softening of CPI to the low- to mid-5% levels in the coming month, the current repo rate of 6.5% implies that India’s real policy rate will hover around 1% during 2023-24, while maintaining a policy rate differential of about 1.5% with the US. Room for additional rate hikes has been retained with MPC’s policy stance continuing to remain unchanged at ‘withdrawal of accommodation’. We believe the bar for future rate hikes has increased, especially since near-term prints of CPI will be sub 6%. Scope for further hikes is limited given our growth-inflation outlook and impact of the past rate hikes on the same.

☆ Bank of America shares its recession investing playbook based on 150 years of market history — including 5 ETFs to own now and 3 signals to watch to know when to 'confidently buy' at the bottom
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

For a downturn, the bank likes ETFs like IYK, ANGL, FALN, and CALF. Economists at Bank of America expect a recession to hit the US economy this year. Bank of AmericaThat's bad news for stock market investors, as a recession likely means downward pressure on corporate earnings and share prices. Bank of AmericaWhen the indicator has entered this phase in the past, the strategists said defensive stocks, small-cap stocks, value stocks, and emerging-market stocks have outperformed. In addition to the broader index, they also said materials stocks should outperform when the market begins to recover.

☆ Watch CNBC’s full interview with Edward Jones' Mona Mahajan on steepening Treasury curve
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC’s full interview with Edward Jones' Mona Mahajan on steepening Treasury curveMona Mahajan, Edward Jones senior investment strategist, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss her market outlook, market bottom and trends.

☆ Banking turmoil means recession fears are creeping back
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Here's what some closely watched market indicators say about recession risks:1/ CRUNCH TIME? Central bankers are closely monitoring the potential for banking stress, on top of lending conditions that were already tightening, to trigger a credit crunch. European Central Bank boss Christine Lagarde has also said the market turmoil may help fight inflation. Reuters Graphics3/ BANK STOCK ROUTWorld shares down just 0.1% in March and still sitting on gains this year seem to signal little recession risk, but worries are mounting under the surface. Global bank stocks, which had outperformed the MSCI World Stock Index before the turmoil, are down nearly 15% this month (.dMIWO0BK00PUS).

☆ Here's where to invest $10,000 right now, according to the pros
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The S & P 500 is on track to finish March flat and end the first quarter up more than 3%. So if you had $10,000 to invest, where should you put it and how much should you allocate to each asset class? He also recommended getting exposure to some of the top holdings in the SPDR S & P 500 ETF , which tracks the S & P 500, as well as the VanEck Semiconductor ETF . He said he'd invest 40% into stocks: 15% in Asia, 15% in the U.S., and 10% in Europe. On the equities front, he told CNBC Pro that he would buy large-cap energy stocks.

☆ 'Sell into rallies': Morgan Stanley names the stocks to navigate current European banking jitters
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

In the wake of recent market volatility and steep share price falls, Morgan Stanley cautioned that the European banking sector is "not as attractive as it was." Morgan Stanley strategists cautioned that although the banking sector is now cheaper, news flow surrounding earnings upgrades and cash return expectations may fade or reverse. On a top-down basis, Morgan Stanley recommended the following overweight-rated (a buy equivalent rating) stocks to navigate this environment with a defensive exposure. Stocks in traditionally defensive sectors, such as health care and utilities, are being recommended by Morgan Stanley. However, Morgan Stanley said the banking sector's problems have shifted this perspective, as the outperformance of European banks has been closely tied to the broader European market.

Britain and Norway hiked rates by 25 bps each, the Swiss National Bank jacked up rates by 50 bps. The European Central Bank hiked rates by 50 bps a week ago. ClearBridge strategist Jeffrey Schluze said, European banking regulation since the global financial crisis has been more stringent than in the United States, making the outlook for European lenders relatively strong. While banking stocks have been battered globally, the S&P 500 is up 0.5% this month (.SPX), while Europe's STOXX 600 index down 3.2% (.STOXX). CHANGE IN TONEBefore the banking turmoil, markets were driven by one-way moves as high inflation pressured U.S. and European markets.

☆ Morning Bid: Fed halt being priced as bank blaze smoulders
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanAnother weekend of financial firefighting has doused the whole interest rate horizon as the banking blaze smoulders. European bank chiefs were immediately on guard for further contagion and insisted more support was required. And that thinking has crushed the interest rate horizon everywhere. Futures markets now see the first Fed rate cut emerging by midyear. * European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks at the European Parliament in Brussels* Chinese President Xi Jinping meets Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

☆ Mike Novogratz says a credit crunch looms as banking crisis grows. Where he's looking for safety
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The turmoil in the banking sector will hit the economy and continue to drag down the stock market, investor Mike Novogratz said Wednesday. In the latest crisis to hit the banking sector, Credit Suisse 's largest investor, Saudi National Bank, said it could not provide any more funding , according to Reuters. CS 1D mountain CS drops The decline added to pressure on U.S. stocks and the banking sector, which is already grappling with the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and crypto-focused Signature Bank. On Sunday, banking regulators said it would backstop depositors with money at Silicon Valley Bank. Gold prices have moved higher , with the precious metal hitting a one-month high Monday as the banking turmoil drove bets the Fed may even pause its rate hikes.

☆ AMERICAS Bank stress, bond volatility and disinflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

But the implications of this sudden bout of financial instability - and its potential economic and policy fallout - were most clearly seen in the interest rate and bond markets. Implied terminal rates for the European Central Bank and Bank of England have been dramatically scaled back too - though one or two further hikes are still priced for those central banks. But the Fed rethink has led to seismic action on the U.S. Treasury market, with the biggest drop in 2-year Treasury yields on Monday since the stock market crash of 1987. Credit spreads in the corporate bond markets have also widened sharply as investors fear an economy-wide tightening of borrowing standards and financial conditions. It would certainly think twice about tightening policy again into this level of financial stress and bond market upheaval.

☆ Morning Bid: Bank stress, bond volatility and disinflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidORLANDO, Florida, March 14 (Reuters) - When the U.S. yield curve inverts bad things tend to happen. chartCARRY THAT WEIGHTWhile SVB's failure may not be a direct casualty of the inverted yield curve, an inverted curve is a sign that wider financial conditions are not so easy, presenting banks with a far more challenging economic and financial environment. The two-year Treasury yield has been higher than the 10-year yield since last July as the Fed has embarked on its most aggressive rate-raising campaign in decades. Banks make money when the yield curve slopes positively, borrowing cheaply via customer deposits, central bank windows or the short end of the curve, and lending longer term at higher rates - a classic 'carry trade'. A downward-sloping curve stymies this 'carry' and curbs lending, and the consequences are clear when that lasts for as long as eight months.

☆ Jeffrey Gundlach says Fed will hike funds rate next week to save credibility — but shouldn't
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Jeffrey Gundlach speaking at the 2019 SOHN Conference in New York on May 6th, 2019. "I just think that, at this point, the Fed is not going to go 50. I would say 25," Gundlach said on CNBC's "Closing Bell" Monday. While Gundlach, sometimes called the "bond king" sees more tightening ahead, he doesn't necessarily think that's the correct response right now. The widely followed investor also warned that the rapid steepening of the Treasury yield curve after a sustained period of inversion is highly indicative of imminent recession.

☆ The bond market's recession warning has gotten more urgent
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

The bond market is sending a more urgent recession warning and also signaling that the Federal Reserve may have to pause raising interest rates — giving up its fight against inflation. The sharp move in the 2-year yield also resulted in a rapid steepening of the yield curve. "The steepening always starts to happen because the market expects the Fed to cut rates in response to that recession." DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach also said the "aggressively steepening" of the Treasury yield curve after inversion is "highly suggestive of imminent recession." The 2-year yield jumped above 5% after he spoke.

☆ Run on Silicon Valley Bank injects some panic into an already slumping stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-11 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The charts suggest that breaking the December low in the S & P 500 around 3765 – down just 2.5% from here – would lose the bullish case a lot more credibility than has been surrendered so far. Of course, fears of contagion can outrun the facts and sometimes can become self-fulfilling, but the S & P 500 has (for now) simply backslid to a nine-week low. Jason Hunter, technical strategist at JP Morgan, had been expecting "a weakening corporate earnings environment would eventually take the narrative away from the Fed driven rates market. In the past week Apple shares lost about a third of what the S & P 500 did. Inflation has been at generational highs for two years as it was not then, and the labor market wasn't nearly as tight.

☆ Markets start signalling Fed may be going too far - Amundi
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Marasciulo said bond market valuations looked better than a month ago after a sell-off that has seen benchmark U.S. and German government bond yields rise around 40 bps since February started. Near-term, Marasciulo said it made sense to bet against the market consensus, by favouring a 25 bps move from the Fed, through trades favouring a steepening of the U.S. yield curve. On the Bank of Japan, which meets on Friday for the last time under outgoing governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Marasciulo said an end to yield curve control is "very likely". "So some sort of reaction function from the BOJ would tell us that probably the yield curve control should be the first thing to be reconsidered." A termination of yield curve control, which has helped pin down Japanese government bond yields, would steepen global yield curves by raising risk premiums on bonds overall, Marasciulo added.

☆ Bank of America's stock chief warns the S&P 500 could fall another 26% as valuations remain too elevated and decades of market history show half of the criteria for a bottom still aren't being met
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-04 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

The S&P 500 could fall to as low as 3,000, they said. In a note this week, Wilson said that the S&P 500 remains overvalued relative to history by price-to-earnings and price-to-sales metrics. S&P 500 P/E multiples are 9% above their median while P/Sales multiples are 23% above median," Wilson said. "History implies that for the current level of real rates the S&P 500 multiple is ~2.5x overvalued," the chief market strategist said. Wilson's end-of-year target for the S&P 500 is 3,900, while Krishna and Kolanovic have targets of 3,725 and 4,200, respectively.

[1/2] The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, February 8, 2023. Crude prices eased, with gold firmer as the dollar index fell 0.18%, while MSCI's U.S.-centric index of stock performance in 47 countries (.MIWD00000PUS) shed 0.44%. China's blue chips (.CSI300) rose 1.3%, pulling away from a one-month trough, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) gained 1.6%. Crude prices eased as oil infrastructure appeared to have escaped serious damage from the earthquake that devastated parts of Turkey and Syria, while U.S. inventories swelled and investors worried about central bank rate hikes. Gold prices rose for a fourth straight session as the dollar faltered, even as Fed officials indicated more rate hikes are warranted to rein in inflation.

ORLANDO, Fla., Jan 22 (Reuters) - A key part of the U.S. yield curve is the most inverted in decades and for hedge funds, enough is enough. It is the smallest net short since December 2021, and considering that short position exceeded 1 million contracts in early September, it is virtually neutral. Funds also increased their one-month SOFR net long position to over 67,000 contracts, the largest long since August. A short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. Meanwhile, speculators increased their net short 10-year Treasuries futures position by 133,699 contracts, the biggest weekly shift since last October, to 545,000 contracts.

☆ Ritholtz's Josh Brown sells Netflix ahead of earnings, but reiterates confidence in long-term trajectory
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"I actually think Netflix will have a good report," he said. I would not be telling people don't own Netflix ahead of earnings. NFLX 1Y mountain Netflix shares plummeted 51% in 2022 Shares of Netflix slumped 51% in 2022 as investors rotated out of growth and streaming stocks faced a dwindling advertising environment and steepening competition. Despite selling shares, Brown remains confident in the company's long-term trajectory and reputation as one of the only profitable streaming services in the industry. Looking ahead, Brown views more information regarding Netflix's advertising tier as the news that could "make or break" this quarter.

☆ Reaction to China loosening COVID restrictions
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Here's what people are saying about the latest moves to ease China's COVID curbs;FRANK BENZIMRA, HEAD OF ASIA EQUITY STRATEGY, SOCIETE GENERALE, HONG KONG"MSCI China has rebounded nicely, valuations have risen and can very gradually normalise. "The next checkpoint will be Chinese New Year; I think markets are looking for further relaxation to facilitate return to their hometowns by Chinese New Year." MITUL KOTECHA, HEAD OF EMERGING MARKETS STRATEGY, TD SECURITIES, SINGAPORE"These are significant steps, and the reality is the current policy had become very difficult to administer given how widespread COVID is in the country. SAKTIANDI SUPAAT, REGIONAL HEAD OF FX RESEARCH & STRATEGY, MAYBANK, SINGAPORE"I think markets have, in some ways, priced in that element (of further easing). I mean, it's better for China to deregulate its COVID restrictions but even if it's a booster for the Chinese economy and commodity prices, that will work negatively for a Fed pause because it tightens monetary conditions."

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