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☆ European banks face renewed selling pressure
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

So people are acting with their feet and continuing to sell bank stocks. ING ECONOMICS TEAM (emailed) "Most European banks are impacted by these events mainly via the more cautious market sentiment. "It seems like post what happened to Credit Suisse last weekend, two things might be at play here. “European banks probably suffered from contagion from what was going on in the US, where the regional banks seem to be under pressure in the rising rate environment. European banks have, in fact, had no fundamental issues whatsoever.

☆ Goldman Sachs, other banks expect smaller hike from ECB in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Subhadeep Chakravarty | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 17 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and at least two other banks expect the European Central Bank to deliver a smaller quarter-point hike in May, as it grapples with stress in the banking sector and high core inflation. Goldman's terminal rate forecast for the ECB now stands at 3.5%, down from 3.75% expected previously when it forecasted a 50-bps raise in May. For Morgan Stanley, a smaller May hike expectation leaves the peak rate forecast at 3.75% by July, down from 4% expected earlier. The changes in forecast follow the ECB's decision on Thursday to press ahead with a 50-bps hike in its deposit facility rate, taking it to 3%. Traders see the ECB rate peaking at around 3.23% by September or October.

☆ Goldman Sachs and other banks expect smaller hike from ECB in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Subhadeep Chakravarty | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

March 17 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs and two other banks expect the European Central Bank to deliver a smaller quarter-point hike in May as it grapples with stress in the banking sector and high core inflation. Goldman earlier expected the ECB to deliver a 50 bps hike in May. The Wall Street bank's terminal rate forecast now stands at 3.5%, down from 3.75% previously. Traders see the ECB rate peaking at around 3.23% by September or October. Meanwhile, J.P.Morgan, Deutsche Bank and Swedish Bank SEB expect the ECB to deliver a 50 bps hike in May but warned of downside risks to their forecasts given current market volatility and inflation remaining well above the central bank's target.

☆ European banks are 'fundamentally different' from SVB, consultancy says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEuropean banks are 'fundamentally different' from SVB, consultancy saysSeb Walker, partner at Tricumen, says the challenge that Silicon Valley Bank faced was a "mismatch between their lending and their deposits, and that's just not the case with most of the European banks."

☆ Lithuania aims to raise $539 mln from temporary windfall tax on banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

VILNIUS, March 9 (Reuters) - Lithuania's finance minister proposed on Thursday a temporary windfall tax on bank profits, aiming to raise an estimated 510 million euros ($538.7 million) over a two-year period. "In large part, the policy of banks has no influence on the profits, they are due to exceptional circumstances, and are probably surprising to banks themselves," Skaiste said. The government and the central bank had previously said Lithuania was contemplating a windfall tax on the banking industry, but had not said how much this could raise. The government's proposal would impose a two-year tax of 60% on the part of a bank's interest income that is more than 50% higher than a four-year average, Skaiste said. Two Swedish-owned groups hold more than half of Lithuania's banking assets, Swedbank (SWEDa.ST), whose 2022 profits increased by 64% to 148 million euros, and SEB (SEBa.ST), whose profits were up 49% to 172 million euros.

☆ Powell's speech was the 'hawkiest' of them all, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailPowell's speech was the 'hawkiest' of them all, economist saysEugenia Victorino of SEB says that the latest speech of U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell proved to be the "hawkiest" of them all.

☆ Ukraine yet to make defence a safe investor haven
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( Lisa Jucca | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

MUNICH, Feb 20 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The West’s rush to supply weapons to war-torn Ukraine looks like a golden opportunity for defence companies to exit the ESG doghouse. As with air-polluting coal, socially-minded investors including pension funds and insurers - particularly European ones - have long excluded or heavily restricted investment in defence companies on ethical grounds. Risk committees, particularly at domestic banks, are now more frequently assessing the merits of financing defence companies, two senior bankers among the 850 or so conference participants said. Proponents of the approach argue military companies that help Ukraine perform a globally valuable social function by upholding democracy. The Munich Security Index, a global risk perceptions survey conducted before the conference, showed security concerns had replaced climate challenges as the top concern.

☆ Lithuania may tax windfall bank profits, boost defence spending
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Andrius Sytas | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] Czech Finance Minister Zbynek Stanjura speaks with Lithuania's Finance Minister Gintare Skaiste at the European Union finance ministers meeting in Brussels, Belgium, July 12, 2022. "This is a critical situation, we are in an environment of high rates, so unexpected profits are appearing," central bank Governor Gediminas Simkus told a news conference. "The war in Ukraine and countries' reactions to it led to the high liquidity and high rates. The invasion also leads to more defence spending, so if we tax the windfall, the income would be used for defence", Skaiste told reporters. The neighbour of Russia had so far budgeted 2023 defence spending at 1.8 billion euros ($1.9 billion), or 2.52% of its gross domestic product.

LONDON/FRANKFURT, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Rising borrowing costs are giving a long-awaited lift to Europe's beleaguered banks, but they come with a sting in the tail. Last year central banks ended a decade of rock-bottom interest rates as the U.S. Federal Reserve and then the European Central Bank moved towards tightening. But while rising rates are good news for bank profits, they herald a slowdown in an economy hit by war and runaway prices that squeeze borrowers and could prick pricing bubbles, most notably in property. "On the one hand, interest rates are going up, which is good and helps banks," said Jerome Legras of Axiom Alternative Investments. Germany's financial regulator BaFin recently warned that a rapid rise in interest rates could weigh on some banks, and that loans may sour.

☆ Sweden is facing its ‘day of reckoning’ as house prices plummet
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( Hannah Ward-Glenton | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

But now property prices are tumbling. Sweden's property prices are facing a serious drop as the country's former central bank governor warns of lofty household debt levels. Central bank rate hikesIn 2022, Sweden's central bank undertook an aggressive interest rate hiking cycle that ricocheted through the property market. So basically once the interest rate is stabilised, we don't expect prices to continue declining," Brodin said. Sweden isn't the only European country experiencing a plunging property market post-pandemic, with some economists forecasting a similar downturn of between 20% and 25% in Germany.

Companies could also move their gas trading off energy exchanges, where the EU price cap will apply, and instead conduct private transactions. The EU cap will not initially cover these "over-the-counter" (OTC) trades, although the bloc will review next year if they should be included. The EU price cap applies to EU hubs, but not those outside the bloc, such as Britain's National Balancing Point (NBP) trading hub. Front-month TTF prices met the price level required to trigger the EU cap on about 40 days this year. EU gas demand dropped by 20% in August-November this year, compared with the five-year average for the same period, Eurostat said on Tuesday.

☆ Swedbank sees income growth outpacing costs as eyes set on ROE boost
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

The rival of banks including Handelsbanken (SHBa.ST), SEB (SEBa.ST) and Nordea (NDAFI.HE) said in a statement it would maintain its dividend policy of a 50% payout ratio and that any excess capital would be distributed to shareholders. "A sustainable bank is a profitable bank. Our target is therefore to reach a 15% return on equity," Chief Executive Jens Henriksson said. The bank, which is holding a capital markets day for investors and analysts on Tuesday, recorded a return on equity of 12.4% in the first nine months of this year. Reporting by Niklas Pollard, editing by Anna RingstromOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Now is not the time to lift Russia, Belarus sanctions-IOC
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-05 | by ( Nelson Acosta | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LAUSANNE, Switzerland, Dec 5 (Reuters) - The International Olympic Committee (IOC) has no immediate plans to lift sanctions on Russia and Belarus even though the qualifying process for the Paris 2024 Summer Olympics goes into full swing next year, the Olympic body said on Monday. The IOC issued guidance to sports governing bodies in February to remove from competition athletes from Russia and Belarus, which Moscow used as a key staging area for the Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine that Russia calls a 'special operation'. While events that count towards qualification in some sports for the Paris Olympics have already been held, most sports will stage their continental or global qualification events in the coming 18 months. I would not want to comment on the state of qualification of athletes for Paris." While the IOC's position could change in the future, some federations have been clear that the only way to reinstate Russia and Belarus in their sport would be the removal of Russian troops from Ukraine.

☆ UBS reveals global stocks that will win — or lose — when China reopens
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-01 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

But when they do, Swiss bank UBS has identified stocks in the MSCI Europe index that will do better than others "in an environment where China's growth rebounds." The investment bank screened for companies in Europe that meet the following criteria: A high percentage of sales exposure to China. The stocks in the table below have been ranked using UBS' composite score, which brings together the above factors. London-listed engineering groups IMI and Weir Group and Asia-focused bank Standard Chartered were among the top 15 stocks with high exposure to China, according to UBS. According to UBS, shares of chemicals and specialty materials companies BASF , Solvay , Arkema and Sika are also exposed.

☆ Swedish c.bank set to hike policy rate to 2.5% this week, poll shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-21 | by ( Simon Johnson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

But core inflation continues to pick up speed and thirteen of sixteen analysts in the poll forecast a hike to 2.5% when the central bank announces it policy decision on Nov. 24. "After high inflation in October, most indications point to a rate hike by at least 75 bps," banking group SEB said. The central bank forecast rates would peak at 2.5%. Households are already struggling with a cost-of-living crisis and the economy is expected to slow sharply - banking group Nordea expects a 2% contraction in GDP and the central bank a 0.7% fall in 2023. Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) doubled its deposit rate to 1.5% at the end of October and promised more tightening in the months to come.

☆ A Maryland Republican who lost his race by 300K votes says he won't concede
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Mia Jankowicz | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

A Maryland Republican said he won't concede election despite trailing by more than 300,000 votes. Peroutka alleged "odd and suspicious" election activity but provided no specifics. Maryland state board of elections said it has seen no sign of suspicious incidents. In the Maryland attorney general race he campaigned on issues of gun rights, protection of the elderly and the "pre-born," border security, and opposing health mandates, per his website. There have been a wealth of independent fact checks, lawsuits, and election investigations, none of which have succeeded in uncovering evidence of widespread election fraud in the 2020 election.

☆ Swedish central bank calls on banks to restrict dividends as risks rise
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The central bank said the biggest risk to banks was their exposure to highly indebted commercial property companies, but added high levels of household debt were also a problem. "The economic development entails an increased risk for major credit losses among major Swedish banks," the central bank said in a regular report on financial stability. Property companies make up about 43% of banks' corporate lending. "In the worst case, higher borrowing costs could lead to property companies defaulting on their payments," the Riksbank said in its report. Shares in Sweden's major banks traded lower on Wednesday, reflecting a fall in the wider European index.

☆ Russia's expanding 'dark fleet' of tankers won't prevent its oil exports from crashing, top energy trader says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

He predicted Russia's exports could drop as much as 1 million barrels per day this winter, despite "dark fleets" of tankers. Russian oil exports have held up this year, with nations like India and China stepping up purchases. China and India this year have ramped up imports of Russian oil, stepping in as big buyers of supplies as Western nations turn away from doing business with Moscow. Vitol, for example, used to be one of the largest carriers of Russian oil but said it has since halted working with companies like Russia's Rosneft. An analyst from Norway's SEB estimated that Russia's existing "dark fleet" totaled about 270 ships, according to the Financial Times, and the expert said Russian crude flows will face disruptions moving forward.

☆ Chinese leader Xi Jinping's power grab fueled a $6 trillion stock selloff and the yuan's decline. These 4 charts capture the market meltdown.
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-30 | by ( George Glover | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

China's President Xi Jinping has tightened his grip on power — and that has rocked markets. Investors dumped Chinese stocks in a $6 trillion blowout as Xi shut reformers out of decision making. Spooked investors dumped Chinese stocks in a $6 trillion blowout Monday, according to Bloomberg data. Under Xi, the People's Bank of China has tended to favor softer yuan fixes, allowing the currency to depreciate. Alibaba, the largest US-listed Chinese stock by market value, fell 12% Monday, and about 46% this year so far.

☆ Swedbank's quarterly profit tops forecast as interest income gives boost
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( Johan Ahlander | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Swedbank operating profit tops forecastInterest income boosted by higher c.bank rateSays credit quality good despite turbulenceSTOCKHOLM, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Swedbank (SWEDa.ST) on Thursday reported a better-than-expected operating profit for the third quarter, underpinned by strong income from mortgages. The Swedish bank said in a statement its quarterly operating profit rose 24% to 8.70 billion crowns ($801 million) from 7.03 billion crowns posted last year, beating the 7.19 billion crowns seen by analysts in a Refinitiv poll. "Due to our position and business model, our net interest income benefits from this." Commission income fell to 3.63 billion crowns from 3.80 billion crowns last year, beating the 3.53 billion seen by analysts. Swedbank said high inflation, especially in the Baltic countries, meant that full-year expenses were likely to be around 1% higher than the cost cap of 20.5 billion crowns.

☆ Handelsbanken posts record profit as interest income climbs
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-19 | by ( Niklas Pollard | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Handelsbanken, whose main markets are Sweden, Norway and Britain, added that its net interest income, which includes revenues from mortgages, climbed to 9.58 billion crowns from 7.59 billion crowns a year ago, well above the 8.67 billion crowns seen by analysts. "Continued good volume growth, on both the private and corporate sides, together with recovering margins, has contributed to improved net interest income and to profits reaching a new all-time high." Meanwhile, commission income dipped to 2.73 billion crowns in the quarter from a year-ago's 2.87 billion crowns - just below forecast - while it booked credit loss reversals of 69 million crowns compared with net losses of 131 million crowns a year earlier. The 150-year-old bank said it made a gain on financial transactions, which include hedging instruments and yielded an unexpected setback earlier this year, of 471 million crowns versus a profit of 534 million crowns a year ago. Total expenses at the bank rose 11% from a year earlier to 5.12 billion crowns.

☆ Turkey's lira at fresh record low after surprise rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Turkish lira banknote is displayed on U.S. Dollar banknotes in this illustration taken, February 14, 2022. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - The Turkish lira sank to a fresh record low on Thursday after the central bank delivered yet another surprise interest rate cut, this time of 100 basis points. IPEK OZKARDESKAYA, SENIOR ANALYST, SWISSQUOTE BANK"The CBRT cut the policy rates by 100 bps for the second month. As an economist, it's hard to comment on this decision, because normally, higher inflation requires higher interest rates. Every rate cut gets the Turkish rates away from the fair value, and weigh on the country risks and the FX rates.

☆ Reactions: Putin mobilises more troops for Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +20 min

Russian President Vladimir Putin makes an address on the conflict with Ukraine, in Moscow, Russia, in this still image taken from video released September 21, 2022. I think even with this Russia stuff it’s hard to see the market really rally a lot more from here ahead of the FOMC. From a geopolitical standpoint, Putin is frustrated that the war isn’t going his way and he’s threatening the west. "If it gets really, really bad, I'd expect the dollar to rise." This announcement by Putin to intensify the escalation in Ukraine definitely doesn’t help.

☆ Lira turcească s-a prăbuşit aproape de minimul istoric după o decizie a preşedintelui Erdogan
▼ + stars: | 2021-03-22 | by ( Publika.Md - Aici Sunt Știrile | ) www.publika.md time to read: +2 min

Moneda Turciei a scăzut cu aproximativ 14% după ce preşedintele Recep Tayyip Erdogan l-a concediat pe guvernatorul băncii centrale a ţării, conform Bloomberg, citat de digi24.ro. Numit în funcţie în luna octombrie, Agbal a crescut constant ratele dobânzilor, într-o perioadă în care rata inflaţiei oscila în jurul unei creşteri de 15%. În prezent, dobânda principală a băncii centrale este de 19%. Săptămâna trecută, moneda Turciei a crescut puternic după ce Agbal a majorat ratele dobânzilor cu două puncte procentuale, dublu faţă de previziunile economiştilor. Conform Bloomberg, indicele BIST 100, reprezentativ pentru piaţa de capital din Turcia, a scăzut cu 8,6%.

Persons: Agbal, Sahap Organizations: Mediafax Locations: Turciei, Istanbul, Turcia

☆ Lira turcească s-a prăbuşit aproape de minimul istoric după o decizie a lui Erdogan
▼ + stars: | 2021-03-22 | by ( ) www.jurnal.md time to read: +2 min

Sursa foto: Guliver/GettyImagesLira turcească s-a prăbuşit aproape de minimul istoric după o decizie a lui ErdoganMoneda Turciei a scăzut cu aproximativ 14% după ce preşedintele Recep Tayyip Erdogan l-a concediat pe guvernatorul băncii centrale a ţării, conform Bloomberg. Numit în funcţie în luna octombrie, Agbal a crescut constant ratele dobânzilor, într-o perioadă în care rata inflaţiei oscila în jurul unei creşteri de 15%. În prezent, dobânda principală a băncii centrale este de 19%. „Autorităţile vor rămâne cu două variante, fie vor promite să folosească ratele dobânzilor pentru a stabiliza pieţele, fie vor impune măsuri de control al capitalului. Săptămâna trecută, moneda Turciei a crescut puternic după ce Agbal a majorat ratele dobânzilor cu două puncte procentuale, dublu faţă de previziunile economiştilor.

Persons: Agbal, Sahap Organizations: Mediafax Locations: Turciei, Naci, Istanbul, Turcia

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