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☆ Here's where Biden and McCarthy stand on debt ceiling talks heading into today's meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( Emma Kinery | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

President Joe Biden hosts debt limit talks with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., in the Oval Office at the White House on May 9, 2023. McCarthy sang a different tune, telling NBC News on Monday outside the Capitol, "I still think we're far apart." The White House has maintained that Biden intends to go to the G-7 summit in Japan later this week, but the president himself has said that could change depending on the debt ceiling talks. Lifting the debt ceiling is necessary for the government to cover spending commitments already approved by Congress and the president and prevent default. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned last week failure to hike the debt ceiling would cause an "economic catastrophe."

The poll found that 76% of Americans said the two sides must reach a deal because a default would put added financial stress on families like theirs. That included 84% of self-described Democrats and 77% of self-described Republicans. Some 49% said Congress needs to quickly raise the debt ceiling without conditions to avert default, echoing Biden's position. But 51% of Americans said the debt ceiling should not be raised without substantial spending cuts - the position held by Republicans who hold a majority in the House of Representatives. That view was held by 69% of Republicans and 42% of Democrats, the poll found.

☆ A US debt default will have 'unquantifiable' adverse consequences and unthinkable long-term implications, Wall Street experts warn
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Zinya Salfiti | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A group of 17 top financial experts warned of "unquantifiable" consequences to come if the US defaults on its debt. In a letter addressed to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, they made the case for possibly repealing the debt limit altogether. The group warned that the ongoing political deadlock is particularly harmful in the midst of the banking turmoil. The Wall Street executives warned the spat is particularly harmful amid the ongoing turmoil in the banking sector. "With financial markets on edge, continuing to debate raising the debt limit is reckless and irresponsible."

WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden will meet with congressional leaders Tuesday as Washington scrambles to lift the debt ceiling with less than a month before the federal government is set to run out of money. Lifting the debt ceiling is necessary for the government to cover spending commitments already approved by Congress and the president and prevent default. But House Republicans have said they will not lift the limit if Biden and lawmakers do not agree to future spending cuts. The White House has stressed that while it is open to discuss spending cuts, it will not negotiate with Republicans on the debt ceiling. If the meeting is indeed a negotiation, then the bill House Republicans passed last month effectively serves as the GOP's opening offer to the White House.

☆ Confused about the debt ceiling? Here's what you need to know
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Emma Kinery | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

What is the debt ceiling? Unlike a credit card, though, the expenses were already approved by Congress, so the debt ceiling does not pertain to new spending. The debt ceiling was last raised in December 2021 by $2.5 trillion, capping the limit at $31.381 trillion. If Congress does not agree to lift the debt ceiling, the government will not have money to pay its bills and will default on its debt. The White House has remained steadfast that it is Congress's responsibility to raise the debt ceiling without conditions, as was done three times under the Trump administration.

☆ Opinion | The Cowardice of the Deficit Scolds
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Financial markets are finally taking notice of the possibility that the United States may soon default on its debts. Interest rates on short-term debt and the cost of insuring against default have spiked, reflecting fears that U.S. debt won’t be repaid on time. Few things about the looming crisis should come as a surprise. Nor am I surprised that the Biden administration hasn’t yet adopted any of the possible strategies through which the debt ceiling might be circumvented. One thing that has come as a surprise, however, is the cowardice of the self-appointed guardians of fiscal responsibility.

☆ Democratic lawmakers are having a blast on 'Bluesky,' the latest alternative to Twitter
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-06 | by ( Bryan Metzger | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Some Democratic lawmakers have begun posting on "Bluesky," the latest alternative to Twitter. And for the Democratic lawmakers who use the platform, it's a place that feels safer and more gentle than Twitter. "The invite tree accountability makes people more judicious about bringing in solid people," wrote Ocasio-Cortez in a "skeet" this week. But I've [posted] triple digits in less than a week [on Bluesky]," she wrote in an earlier post. In a "skeet" on Bluesky, Rep. Ocasio-Cortez declares the platform to be "safer and more fun" than Twitter.

☆ Opinion | Doing Whatever It Takes on Debt
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The United States is barreling toward a debt crisis; the possibility of default on U.S. debt is already beginning to roil markets. What’s odd about this potential crisis is that it has nothing to do with excessive debt. America in 2023 isn’t like, say, Greece in 2009 or Argentina in 2001, cut off by investors because they have lost faith in our solvency. There are three things you need to know about this crisis. First, whatever courts may say about the constitutionality of the debt ceiling, budget decisions should be dictated by votes over spending and taxing, not by hostage-taking in which the party most willing to destroy the economy gets what it wants.

If Congress fails to act, some legal experts say Democratic President Joe Biden has another option to avert a crisis: Invoke the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution to ensure the United States can continue to pay its bills. Section Four of 14th Amendment, adopted after the 1861-1865 Civil War, states that the "validity of the public debt of the United States ... shall not be questioned." HOW WOULD MARKETS REACT IF BIDEN USES THE 14TH AMENDMENT? Administration officials and economists have warned that a default triggered by a debt-ceiling breach would roil the world financial system and plunge the United States into recession. That immediate catastrophe might be avoided if Biden invoked the 14th Amendment.

☆ Janet Yellen says the government could run out of money and trigger an economic crisis as soon as June 1
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Juliana Kaplan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that the government could run out of money as soon as June 1. In a letter to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Yellen urged Congress to raise the debt ceiling. But Congressional action still seems like a far-off reality, as Democrats pronounce House Republicans' plan dead on arrival. A default would plunge the US into an unknowable economic crisis, destabilizing both the country and the worldwide economy. "I respectfully urge Congress to protect the full faith and credit of the United States by acting as soon as possible."

☆ Republicans Pass Debt-Ceiling Bill Aiming to Spark Talks With Biden
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Lindsay Wise | Siobhan Hughes | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Photo illustration: Madeline MarshallWASHINGTON—House Republicans passed a bill proposing to raise the nation’s $31.4 trillion borrowing limit in exchange for deep cuts in government spending, aiming to jump-start talks with President Biden ahead of an approaching deadline for the federal government to avoid default. The vote was 217-215, with all Democrats voting no. Four Republicans opposed the bill, after House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif.) made last-minute changes and promises in order to keep his fractious conference mostly united. The razor-thin margin underscored the complicated politics that are expected to roil the debt-ceiling debate.

☆ Jobs are strong, inflation is cooling — yet recession worries remain
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-18 | by ( Christine Romans | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

In the optimist camp is Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who told CNN’s Fareed Zakaria last week a damaging recession can be averted. “I do think there is a path to bring down inflation while maintaining what I think all of us would regard as a strong labor market.”After months of inflation at close to 40-year highs, prices are cooling. By most measures, the job market is stronger today than it was in February 2020, before the Covid pandemic crashed the global economy. “I think the strong labor market and bringing down inflation are compatible goals,” Yellen said. Another read is that a recession, if there is one, will be mild and brief, without a big spike in the jobless rate.

☆ Should you sign that severance package? Here are 5 things to consider first.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Sindhu Sundar | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

Some employees being laid off by Big Tech companies can expect generous severance packages. Employees should consider their options before signing a severance agreement, they said. Here are five things to consider when signing your severance agreement, according to labor lawyers:1. Consider what you are willing to give up in exchange for the severance paymentWhen employees accept a severance package, they're asked to give up something in exchange — like their ability to sue the company. "We have been receiving a lot of calls from workers laid off by tech companies," she said.

☆ Meta's job cuts are gutting customer service, leaving influencers and businesses with nobody to call
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( Jonathan Vanian | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +13 min

As part of the company's two rounds of layoffs, equaling roughly 21,000 job cuts, Meta gutted wide swaths of its customer service operation, leaving influencers and businesses with nobody to contact about their accounts. CNBC spoke with influencers, small businesses and Meta account managers as well as a half-dozen former contractors and former Meta employees about the deterioration in customer service at the company since the job cuts began in November. Holliday said it appears that the only people who get customer service are those who represent a company that's spending heavily on advertising. However, some influencers say Facebook has had such poor customer service that there's no reason to pay for it. After all the problems she's experienced, Karlova questions whether Meta will be able to provide better customer service.

☆ Reaction: OPEC output cuts to roil markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The OPEC move and Russia's extension through year-end of cuts was a coordinated effort that signaled the OPEC+ remains in charge of global markets. ANDY LIPOW, PRESIDENT, LIPOW OIL ASSOCIATES"It’s very significant that the majority of the production cuts are coming from the core OPEC members. "OPEC is clearly concerned about lower oil prices impacting on their individual government budgets. The 1 million barrel per day cut is likely to be from production quotas and result in an actual production cut of somewhat less. This is the biggest surprise since January 2021" when OPEC+ disclosed a gradual increase in output follow COVID cuts.

A Manhattan grand jury has voted to indict Donald Trump on felony charges. In a statement, Trump characterized the criminal charges from a grand jury as a political attack. The indictment's specific contents have not yet been made public, even to the defense team, as is common in state criminal cases. The district attorney's office subsequently brought David Pecker, the former publisher of the National Enquirer, to testify for a second time in front of the grand jury. That post was quickly taken down; Trump attorney Joe Tacopina called it "ill-advised" and said "one of his social media people" put it up.

☆ As McCarthy laments 'no progress,' here's where U.S. debt ceiling talks stand
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Emma Kinery | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Tuesday that there has been "no progress" in debt ceiling negotiations between House Republicans and the White House, as the U.S. inches closer to risking a first-ever default. House Republicans have refused to lift the debt ceiling without promises of spending cuts. The U.S. already hit its debt limit, forcing the Treasury to take so-called extraordinary measures to keep paying its bills. It has been nearly two month since McCarthy and Biden met to discuss debt ceiling measures. Not lifting the debt ceiling would have catastrophic effects on the U.S. economy.

LONDON, March 27 (Reuters) - Funds have dumped their bets on higher copper prices as the turbulence triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank continues to roil financial markets. The investment community has turned net short of CME copper for the first time in five months, while funds have cut their long exposure on the London Metal Exchange (LME). Investors' negativity towards Doctor Copper contrasts with the bullish headlines generated by the FT Commodities Global Summit. Investment funds bought into copper in January, the net long position expanding from 11,830 to 32,397 contracts at the end of the month. Bulls such as Trafigura and Goldman Sachs contend it's a very thin inventory cushion if China rediscovers its copper mojo.

☆ The banking crisis is doing Fed's work and creating a window for stocks to rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-26 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +19 min

Work from home has in part jacked up food prices, and the increase is about 14% above just last year. The only bank that looks like Silicon Valley Bank is First Republic Bank (FRC) because it, too, has suffered huge deposit withdrawals. Nike (NKE)said China orders were good, so did Club stock Starbucks (SBUX). As counterintuitive as it is, the banking row will give the 4.8% fed funds rate a chance to cool consumer spending. This gives stocks a window to advance until we begin earnings season with what will no doubt be a cautious banking sector.

☆ A 'boxed-in' Fed will tank stocks from dot-com-level valuations after it raises rates, warns Morgan Stanley Wealth Management's CIO. She shares 5 areas of the market to find safety in.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

With returns bound to be muted, Shalett likes investments outside of US stocks. "Market psychology has been shaken, setting off a dynamic that likely raises the odds of an imminent recession. Morgan Stanley Wealth ManagementShalett doesn't expect the size of decline her Morgan Stanley colleague Mike Wilson sees. However, with spreads widening and long-term rates reflecting a more reasonable terminal value, bonds are a decent relative portfolio hedge," Shalett said. And finally, active money managers like hedge funds should outperform in an environment where index returns are muted, Shalett said.

☆ The Fed is likely to hike rates by a quarter point but it must also reassure it can contain a banking crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Investors will be looking for assurances from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that the central bank can contain the banking problems. Expectations for Fed rate hikes also moved dramatically: What was expected to be a half-point hike two weeks ago is now up for debate at a quarter point or even zero. He said the Fed will not likely say it is going to pause, but its messaging could be interpreted that way. Depending on their [projections], I think the market will think this is the final hike." Swonk also expects the Fed to withhold its so-called dot plot, the chart on which it shows anonymous forecasts from Fed officials on the path for interest rates.

☆ Bank troubles roil markets and make Fed's decision next week more fraught
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Even with Friday's sell-off, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq scored gains for the week. The S & P 500 rose 1.4%, compared to a tiny loss of 0.2% in the Dow . "If the U.S. economy is going into a recession, they're going to be buying less cloud service. On Friday, durable goods for February is reported, and there are releases of flash S & P Global PMI data for services and manufacturing. Durable goods 9:30 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard 9:45 a.m. S & P Global Manufacturing PMI 9:45 a.m. S & P Global Services PMI

☆ Most Gulf markets turn south as Credit Suisse woes roil markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Ateeq Shariff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] Saudi woman walks at the Saudi stock market (Tadawul), in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia March 9, 2020. The lender lost almost $25 billion in market value since Oct. 27 after committing to invest in the embattled Credit Suisse. Oil — a key catalyst for the Gulf's financial markets —extended losses, with Brent crude hitting a three-month low as unease over Credit Suisse spooked world markets, offsetting hopes of a Chinese oil demand recovery. "At the same time, traders will remain attentive to the developments in global markets and central bank decisions this week and the next." Outside the Gulf, Egypt's blue-chip index (.EGX30) plunged 4.2%, with investment bank EFG Hermes (HRHO.CA) diving more than 12%.

☆ Britain to bolster the City after Silicon Valley Bank collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/2] A person walks over Millennium Bridge amidst early morning fog, as the sun rises beyond the City of London financial district in the background, in London, Britain, February 8, 2023. Following the collapse of its parent company in the United States, Silicon Valley Bank's UK arm was sold to HSBC over the weekend to avoid disrupting its customers in Britain. Hunt said he would make a statement in the autumn on how the UK financial system would be strengthened. City Minister Andrew Griffith has said that an accounting rule for pension funds has become a "performance penalty" which holds back investment in Britain. The financial sector has called for faster implementation of the proposals after Amsterdam overtook London as Europe's biggest share trading centre.

☆ Stormy Daniels makes surprise appearance in Manhattan DA's Trump probe
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Sonam Sheth | Laura Italiano | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The adult film star Stormy Daniels met with prosecutors in the Manhattan DA's office. Her lawyer said Daniels "responded to questions and has agreed to make herself available as a witness, or for further inquiry if needed." The Manhattan DA's office is in the final stages of its investigation into Trump's $130,000 hush money payment to Daniels in 2016. He's expected to be the last witness to appear before the panel as the DA's office appears to move closer to indicting Trump. "Everyone is looking for their 15 minutes of fame," Trump's lawyer, Joe Tacopina, said when asked about Daniels' visit to the DA.

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