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Chartmaster David Keller shared the three biggest risks facing the market right now. The S&P 500 may struggle to break past technical resistance of 4,200 and 4,300. He predicted that if the VIX rises to 20, the S&P 500 would fall to a vital support level of 3,800. The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving average (in green) has fallen below 50% recently. David Keller, StockCharts.comPoor market breadth should be a serious concern for investors, Keller said.
Companies with healthy balance sheets and access to low or no-cost funding are likely to outperform. Ferguson is a fund manager for the BNY Mellon Dynamic Value Fund at Newton Investment Management. Across all sectors, Ferguson believes that companies with strong balance sheets and good liquidity will widely outperform their peers, especially in the face of a looming economic slowdown. Strong balance sheets in particular can help businesses endure turbulent times, since companies aren't forced to issue — and eventually pay back — a lot of high-cost debt. Likewise, Ferguson is currently bullish on the energy sector due to its incredibly strong balance sheets and focus on return of capital versus growth.
Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up 8%. Plus, when the Consumer Price Index is between 4-6% like it is now, it usually dictates that the S&P 500 trades at a lower multiple than it is. "For example, at the current S&P 500 P/E of 19, the earnings yield for stocks is 1 divided by 19, or ~5.2%. While he sees 15% downside in the months ahead, he also believes the S&P 500 will return to current levels by the end of 2023. Morgan StanleyWilson has also repeatedly warned of an earnings recession ahead, and recently said that the pullback in lending from banks strengthens his case.
There's too much pessimism about the US economy, says Ed Yardeni at Yardeni Research. He told CNBC that investors may have missed out if they ditched stocks after Jamie Dimon sounded alarms about an economic "hurricane". The S&P 500 has risen about 19% since hitting a bear-market low in October. Yardeni said a highlight of pessimism about the economy came from JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon last June when he warned of an oncoming economic "hurricane." He noted the S&P 500 made a new low in June after Dimon's declaration, then in October, it moved 2% below that trough.
Gold prices inched higher for a third consecutive session on Thursday, as milder-than-expected U.S. inflation data prompted bets that the Federal Reserve might raise rates just once more before pausing. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $2,031.40. Gold prices rose over 1% on Wednesday after data showed the U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% last month, compared with expectations of a 0.2% increase, after advancing 0.4% in February. Recession concerns are "allowing gold prices to ride on its safe-haven status ... while technical conditions are revealing some moderation in upward momentum on recent highs," IG's Yeap said. Spot silver fell 0.3% to $25.39 per ounce, platinum lost 0.3% to $1,011.86 and palladium dipped 0.5% to $1,452.08.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecent price action just delays the retest of October lows: J.P. Morgan's HunterJason Hunter, J.P. Morgan head of technical strategy, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss Hunter's take on the markets, how the CPI data plays into Hunter's thesis and how investors should consider tech stocks.
The bank crisis has distressed markets, but Nicole Webb expects consequences to be relatively muted. Still, Webb expects choppy waters as stocks come close to retesting their October lows. She also shared six stocks with both value and growth traits to hedge volatility and maximize gains. Webb clarified that the unchanged outlook doesn't mean the economy is completely free from the consequences of the banking crisis. But she also believes that a slowing economy means that some growth stocks have begun to look more attractive, especially the mega-tech names that were overly punished in 2023.
Top Wall Street strategist Marko Kolanovic said the recently rally in stocks was merely a dead cat bounce as there has been no material improvement in fundamentals. Stocks staged a swift comeback last month as investors shook off recession fears worsened by the banking crisis. The S & P 500 jumped 3.5% in March, while the Nasdaq Composite added 6.7%, notching its best quarter since 2020. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500 The S & P 500 hit a 52-week low of 3,491.58 on Oct. 13. Wall Street strategists on average see the S & P 500 ending the year at 4,127, implying that stocks would stall from here, according to CNBC's Market Strategist Survey , which rounds up 15 top strategists' forecasts.
Gold retreats as waning banking crisis dampens demand
  + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Spot gold was trading 0.7% lower at $1,960.91 per ounce, as of 0619 GMT, after rising 1% on Tuesday. "We've seen a natural retracement ... gold is pulling back after a failed 'bid' to break above $1,975," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. But some investors "still seem to be holding onto gold 'just in case' there's another skeleton or two lurking in the closet," Simpson said. The opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold rises when interest rates are increased. Silver fell 0.8% to $23.08 per ounce, platinum lost 0.7% at $956.76 and palladium edged down 0.2% to $1,416.93.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailNo downside earnings estimates would be very bullish for risk assets: NewEdge Wealth CIOCameron Dawson, NewEdge Wealth CIO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss how Dawson is feeling about the stock market's prospects, the right move for the Federal Reserve and if the markets will retest past lows.
SummarySummary Companies Gold might retest support at $1,945/oz - technicalsU.S. dollar down 0.2%Global stocks rise on TuesdayMarch 28 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Tuesday as the dollar slipped, although an improvement in risk appetite after efforts by regulators to allay fears over the global banking system limited the safe-haven metal's appeal. "The U.S. dollar seems to be stabilising, this should entice fresh buying back into the (gold) market," said Clifford Bennett, chief economist at ACY Securities. However, gold remains the "resolute safe-haven" in a "rolling risk environment" for the banking sector as risks of contagion are far more persistent than the market would like to believe, Bennett added. Gold might retest a support at $1,945 per ounce, a break below could open the way towards $1,927, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao said. Spot silver eased 0.1% to $23.06 per ounce, while platinum rose 0.5% to $976.87 and palladium added 0.7% at $1,418.44.
In this article BTC.BS=-USSBTC.CB=BTC.CM= Follow your favorite stocks CREATE FREE ACCOUNTCryptocurrency industry insiders predict bitcoin could hit a new all-time high in 2023 and possibly reach $100,000. Bitcoin previously hit its all-time high of $68,990.90 in November 2021. related investing news How crypto prices may react to the latest Fed decision Marshall Beard, chief strategy officer at U.S.-headquartered cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, said $100,000 could be a possibility for bitcoin. "I think bitcoin probably breaks all-time highs this year," Beard said, adding that the $100,000 price figure is an "interesting number." Paolo Ardoino, chief technology officer at stablecoin issuer Tether, said bitcoin could "retest" its all-time high near $69,000.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTether CTO says bitcoin can 'retest' all-time highs this yearPaolo Ardoino, CTO of Tether, discusses with CNBC's Arjun Kharpal why bitcoin has rallied this year and where he sees the cryptocurrency going.
But the chaos has also ushered in the beginning of the end of current bear market, said Mike Wilson. Morgan Stanley shared 30 stocks to buy for long-term outperformance in the next bull market. In fact, Wilson believes that a decline in credit availability may even point to the beginning of the end of the current bear market. In a note from March 21, Wilson and fellow equity strategist Michelle Weaver highlighted the top stocks identified by Morgan Stanley analysts to buy for outperformance and longevity. However, they cautioned that current market pricing or positioning played no role in determining their basket of top stocks.
Even with Friday's sell-off, the S & P 500 and Nasdaq scored gains for the week. The S & P 500 rose 1.4%, compared to a tiny loss of 0.2% in the Dow . "If the U.S. economy is going into a recession, they're going to be buying less cloud service. On Friday, durable goods for February is reported, and there are releases of flash S & P Global PMI data for services and manufacturing. Durable goods 9:30 a.m. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard 9:45 a.m. S & P Global Manufacturing PMI 9:45 a.m. S & P Global Services PMI
Oil prices fell Wednesday, as traders feared a brewing banking crisis could dent global economic growth. "Now near the mid-$60s, WTI crude's plunge is at the mercy of how much worse the macro picture gets." It also raised concern over the state of the global banking system less than a week after two U.S. regional banks failed. Entering this week, traders had priced in at least a 25 basis-point rate hike. Correction: Oil was headed for its worst day since July.
UBS's Nadia Lovell believes that the stock market could dip below its 2022 lows this year. Lovell also said that investors who don't own ex-US assets could be missing out on big future gains. Lovell also believes that current investor consensus is too optimistic about the looming earnings contraction, and that market valuations remain lofty. For instance, she currently has an overweight towards consumer staples, a traditionally defensive sector that can hedge portfolios against economic slowdown. Despite its huge run-up over the past year, Lovell believes that demand for the sector still has room to grow.
The bond market's recession warning has gotten more urgent
  + stars: | 2023-03-13 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
The bond market is sending a more urgent recession warning and also signaling that the Federal Reserve may have to pause raising interest rates — giving up its fight against inflation. The sharp move in the 2-year yield also resulted in a rapid steepening of the yield curve. "The steepening always starts to happen because the market expects the Fed to cut rates in response to that recession." DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach also said the "aggressively steepening" of the Treasury yield curve after inversion is "highly suggestive of imminent recession." The 2-year yield jumped above 5% after he spoke.
In a note out Monday, Emanuel highlighted a striking comparison to the 2-year Treasury Note yield plunge in the aftermath of Friday's Silicon Valley Bank collapse and 1987. Evercore ISI is comparing the bank stress to another critical time on Wall Street: The year of the savings and loan crisis and epic crash. He noted the three-day rate of change in the 2-year yield fell from the 5.08% peak to a recent "trough" of 3.99%. "Part of the end game is we do want to see enough of a downturn to make stocks attractive," said Emanuel. "The next thing that we really need to be cognizant of is how credit, in general, trades," Emanuel said.
Bank stocks rebounded somewhat after getting pummeled during Monday's trading session. U.S. stock futures rose on Monday night after the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a fifth day of losses. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell after a plan to backstop depositors in Silicon Valley Bank failed to buoy bank stocks, as well as the S&P 500 . On the other hand, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite bucked the trend, rising 0.45%, as some investors bet the collapse at Silicon Valley Bank could mean a pause in future interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. Due out Tuesday before the bell, the February consumer price index is expected to show a rise of 0.4% last month, according to consensus estimates from Dow Jones.
Investors aren't paying enough attention to the risk of quantitative easing, Art Cashin told CNBC. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan could signal a big shift soon that would also send yields higher. In September, that went up to $60 billion for Treasurys and $35 billion for MBS. And if the 10-year yield goes above 4.10%, that will put pressure on markets and cause stocks to retest lows, Cashin said. Signs of more inflationary pressures in the country may trigger a policy reversal, with Bank of Japan members meeting Thursday and Friday.
The US avoiding a recession could actually be horrible for stocks, TS Lombard said. That's because the Fed would likely keep interest rates high in a "no landing" scenario, weighing on equities. That's because the Federal Reserve would likely keep interest rates high, whereas central bankers have traditionally cut interest rates by at least 200 basis points when faced with a recession, strategists said. Though most analysts have forecasted interest rates reaching 5% this year, rates could soar to 6.5% if the US avoids a recession, strategists estimated. For its part, TS Lombard believes the US could enter a mild recession by mid-year, echoing forecasts from other Wall Street analysts.
Art Cashin says the Federal Reserve can't go back to higher interest rate hikes after easing down. They went from 50 [basis points] down to 25. That follows Thursday comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic who said he's "firmly" in favor of 25 basis point rate hikes , instead of the 50 basis point increase some other Fed officials have called for. Regardless, Cashin said he expects trouble ahead for markets, and urged investors to keep an eye on some technical levels. "It looks to me like the oversold bounce that we got out of Salesforce yesterday, the influence on the market might carry on until maybe Tuesday of next week," Cashin said.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBranch: We have seen the highs of the markets but will likely retest the October lowsVeritas Financial Group's Greg Branch gives his take on the markets.
In other words, the risk-reward ratio for stocks — or the equity risk premium — has to make sense, or else why take the risk by investing in them? 10 places to investDespite the lackluster outlook for stocks, strategists still say there are plenty of investing opportunities. The Vanguard US Quality Factor ETF (VFQY) and the Fidelity MSCI Consumer Staples Index ETF (FSTA) offer exposure to the above areas of the market. This supports our preference for emerging markets, and our preference for Germany and consumer stocks in Europe. Within defensives, we like consumer staples over healthcare, which we downgraded this month.
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