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It is not even certain that the decline in China's U.S. import share represents a true delinking, they said. Yet in the background, the researchers noted that China had "stepped up" its trade and investment activity with Vietnam and Mexico, as well as other countries. "The U.S. could well remain indirectly connected to China through its trade and global value chain links with these third-party countries," they argued. Prices for goods from some countries, moreover, were beginning to rise. Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: JACKSON, deglobalization, Laura Alfaro, Davin Chor, Alfaro, Chor, What's, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Biden, Trump, Federal, Harvard Business School, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth, Fed, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, China, Ukraine, freefall, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, Vietnam, Mexico
But Mahaffy's research found that it is not necessarily because companies have leaned away from socially conscious strategies. Instead, she pointed a growing use of the term "sustainability," as well as other words like "climate" or "decarbonization" that fall under the ESG umbrella. It comes at a time when ESG has become increasingly fraught in the political sphere. Mahaffry noted that areas like the U.S. where ESG has received the most scrutiny have seen the biggest drops in use of the term on earnings calls. On WestRock's earnings call earlier this month, Sewell told listeners: "This is just one example of many of how WestRock's unique capabilities position us for growth."
Persons: , Sara Mahaffy, ESG, it's, Williams, Alan Armstrong, Peter Vanacker, David Gitlin, Marvin Ellison, Joseph Dominguez, Dominguez, Robert Venkat Pragada, Whitney, REI, Satya Nadella, David Sewell, Sewell, Michael Bloom Organizations: RBC Capital, LyondellBasell Industries, Carrier, Constellation Energy, Engineering, Jacobs Solutions, Pratt, Microsoft, Sustainability, Costco Locations: U.S, ESG
Just this week, the Panama Canal Authority extended those restrictions for at least another 10 months. Next shoe to dropBut from a transportation standpoint beyond Panama, the next shoe to drop could be the Mississippi River, Davis said. During the past 30 days, rainfall along the southern Mississippi River has been well below normal. And when you have two disruptions versus just one, that is magnified overall.”Holiday shopping hang-upsFor now, general waiting times have spiked at the Panama Canal. Supply chain shiftsHad this occurred before the pandemic lockdowns and the drastic swings in consumer spending patterns that mangled supply chains, it might have been a different story.
Persons: sandstorm, , Janelle Griffith, Marsh, Jon Davis, El, , Davis, Evelyn Hockstein, Everstream, Ahmad Hassan, hasn’t, “ We’ve, ” Phillip Sanfield, Amanda Kwan, hadn’t, ” Kwan, plumb, Taylor Swift, Kamala Raman, you’ve, Peter Sand, Sand Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Panama Canal Authority, Getty, CNN, Port, Port Authority of New, National Retail Federation Locations: Minneapolis, Minneapolis CNN — Panama, Panama, Mississippi, Suez, North American, El, Central America, Grand Tower , Illinois, New Orleans, United States, Europe, Egyptian, Ismailiya, AFP, Panama Canal, Los Angeles, Port of Los Angeles, New York, Port Authority of New York, New Jersey,
It has been one year after President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act went into law. Passing the Inflation Reduction Act last August was anything but easy. One year to the day after President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act was passed seems like the perfect time to look back on its effects — and to look forward at which stocks could reap the benefits. Bank of America: The Inflation Reduction Act is WorkingIn mid-July, Bank of America ESG strategists Dimple Gosai and Megan Mantaro took a deep dive into the Inflation Reduction Act and the stocks that will feel the greatest impact from increased manufacturing spending. Within these themes, the strategists found 37 stocks that they believe will see the biggest benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act.
Persons: Biden's, Sen, Joe Manchin, Dimple Gosai, Megan Mantaro, Mantaro Organizations: Bank of America, GOP, Infrastructure Investment, Jobs, EVs, EV Locations: Georgia, South Carolina , Tennessee, Kentucky
In contrast, nearly $1 billion went into emerging market ex-China mutual funds, according to Refinitiv data that Reuters cited. Here are some alternatives to China and the stocks to invest in, according to the pros. Japan Japan stocks have been an investor favorite this year, seeing the highest inflows in 20 years, according to Eastspring Investments. Demand for Japan funds has surged among European investors, according to data from research firm Cerulli. The bank screened for Japan stocks with the following attributes: resilient earnings, price-to-book (P/B) ratio below 1.5, and potential P/B upside relative to return on equity.
Persons: Morningstar, , , Derrick Irwin, there's, Oliver Lee, BofA, Joanne Peng, Allspring's Irwin, Irwin, Fomento, He's, Morgan Stanley, Will, ” Irwin, Cerulli’s Peng Organizations: Morningstar, CNBC Pro, Reuters, Allspring Global Investments, CNBC, , Eastspring Investments, Ivailo, Mitsui & Co, Honda Motor, Nomura, Kansai Electric Power, Mitsubishi Motors, Panasonic, Mexicano, HDFC Bank, HDFC Locations: European, China, India, Beijing, Japan Japan, Japan, Europe, Vietnam, Asia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Southeast Asia, Mexico, America, Will China
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Persons: Dow Jones
Foreign direct investment is also picking up. That investment is on top of the reshoring boom that is already underway , as U.S. companies return operations back home, partly to ensure the safety of supply chains. More than 101,000 jobs were created by reshoring and foreign direct investment in the first quarter alone, up 11% year over year, according to the Reshoring Initiative . While Eaton is Snyder's top pick on the reshoring theme, he highlighted several other underappreciated names that stand to gain as well. Overall, auto reshoring announcements grew 30% in the second half of 2022 from the year prior, according to UBS.
Persons: Chris Snyder, UBS's Snyder, he's, Snyder, Eaton, Dave Regnery, Regnery, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: World Trade Organization, UBS, Reshoring, Keysight Technologies, U.S, Trane Technologies Locations: U.S, United States, China, reshoring, Taiwan, Asia
Trade between the US and Mexico reached $263 billion during the first four months of this year. That pushed Mexico past China and Canada as the top trade partner since the start of the pandemic. China was the top partner for much of the 2010s and again at the start of the pandemic. Trade with Mexico accounted for 15.4% of all the goods exported and imported by the US, just ahead of America's trade totals with Canada (15.2%) and China (12.0%). Trucks carrying shipping containers line up as they are flagged for a secondary inspections at the Port of Manzanillo, Mexico.
Persons: Luis Torres, Donald Trump's, Torres, Nearshoring, Peter S, Goodman, Michael Burns, Salwan Georges, Shannon O'Neil's, Greg Rosalsky, O'Neil, Joe Biden, Antony Blinken, Xi Jinping, Janet Yellen, Xi, Yellen Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve Bank of, Canada, Dallas Fed, New York Times, Walmart, Murray Hill Group, Trucks, Washington, Getty, NPR Locations: Mexico, China, Canada, Wall, Silicon, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Pacific, Port, Manzanillo, USA, United States
The Mexico nearshoring play is real, but investors should be aware of some pitfalls. Nearshoring — also called reshoring, onshoring, inshoring or backshoring — is helping drive Mexican stocks higher this year. For U.S. companies, there are compelling advantages to moving operations to Mexico from Asia, including geographical proximity, as well as low labor costs. "There is no nearshoring industrial revolution without electricity," according to a March note where Lippmann discusses Mexico's need to revamp its electricity infrastructure. According to Nace, the firm is the largest auto insurance company in Mexico, "similar to a Progressive in the United States.
Persons: , Andrés Manuel López Obrador's, Meagan Nace, Nace, Morgan, Nikolaj Lippmann, Lippmann, Lippman, López Obrador, Tesla Organizations: U.S, Grupo, Artisan Partners, Companies, Partners, Semiconductor, New York Stock Exchange Locations: Mexico, Asia, Mexican, nearshoring, Baja California, United States, Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, U.S
Bank of America sees more upside in store for this little-known beneficiary of reshoring trends and the Inflation Reduction Act. Analyst Ruplu Bhattacharya upped the bank's price target on shares of Flex Ltd. to $31 from $28, citing its 15-year partnership to make microinverters for Enphase Energy . The analyst also highlighted the company's long-term business mix and improving margins as contributing factors to the price hike. FLEX YTD mountain Shares in 2023 "FLEX should continue to benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) which can help spur demand for clean energy and reshoring manufacturing back to the US. Inverters are included in FLEX's core renewables business which is part of its industrial segment," he wrote in a Friday note to clients.
Persons: Ruplu Bhattacharya, Bhattacharya, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: of America, Flex Ltd, Enphase Energy
Investors hoping to capture more upside from artificial intelligence could turn to a sector that's underperformed this year, and maybe not immediately associated with AI: Health care. Greater drug discovery The bull case for health care boils down to several factors including improvements made in drug discovery. Cox added that one overlooked health care and AI beneficiary would be Amazon , which he called a "sleeper" pick for investors. This year, it closed a $3.9 billion transaction for primary health care provider One Medical . The investor also called Rockwell Automation one of his stock picks that could benefit from AI in health care.
Persons: Jamie Cox, Morgan Stanley, Cox, Mizuho, Rockwell Organizations: Nvidia, Harris Financial, Johnson, Merck, Pfizer, Exscientia, Amazon, Rockwell Automation, . UnitedHealth Locations: U.S, U.K
Investors should look to stocks that enhance productivity as companies seek to replace scarce labor with machines, according to Evercore ISI. The chart below includes two stocks Emanuel found for each use case. The stock has surged more than 50% since the start of 2023, rebounding along with other technology stocks after 2022's sell-off. Equinix shares have risen nearly 17% year to date and Evercore ISI expects shares to advance another 8.5%. The stock should also be helped by reshoring trends, as well as its investments in AI and improving labor productivity, Emanuel said.
Persons: Julian Emanuel, Emanuel, Evercore, There's, Zscaler, ZS, Ingersoll Rand, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: ISI, CNBC Pro Locations: Tuesday's
Recessions haven't always resulted in declining stock markets, and good opportunities can be found amid them. Sectors for recession naysayersThe best sectors for recession disbelievers are the most economically sensitive ones: industrials, materials and financials. Well-positioned companies with good growth prospects currently include: Corteva, Dow Chemical, Ecolab, Linde plc, Martin Marietta Materials, Nucor Corp., PPG Industries and Sherwin-Williams. Currently buyable names include: Campbell Soup Co., General Mills, The Hershey Co., Kellogg's, Kimberly-Clark Corp., Kroger, Procter & Gamble and Walmart. Sector names with reasonable risk levels and good growth prospects include: Vertex Pharmaceuticals, IDEXX Laboratories, DaVita Inc., Veeva Systems Inc., IQVIA Holdings Inc., Cigna Group and Zoetis Inc.
Persons: Sherwin, Williams, Mayur, Martin Marietta, JPMorgan Chase, Rowe Price, Willis Towers Watson, Campbell, General Mills, Clark, Willie B, Thomas, Digitalvision Organizations: Westend61, University of Michigan Consumer, Investors, Westinghouse Air Brake Co, Cummins Inc, CSX, Emerson Electric, Otis Worldwide, Carrier, Caterpillar, Honeywell, Illinois Tool, Lockheed Martin Corp, Dow Chemical, Ecolab, Linde plc, Martin, Martin Marietta Materials, Nucor Corp, PPG Industries, XLF, JPMorgan, Rowe Price Group Inc, American International Group, Allstate, The, McLennan, Sectors, Co, Hershey Co, Clark Corp, Kroger, Procter, Gamble, Walmart, Getty Images Health, iShares U.S, Medical Devices, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, IDEXX Laboratories, DaVita Inc, Veeva Systems Inc, IQVIA Holdings Inc, Cigna, Zoetis Inc Locations: American, The Hartford, Marsh, Kimberly
The Club's industrials are set to profit from a burgeoning trend of companies bringing manufacturing jobs back to the U.S. from overseas. As companies reconstruct supply chains in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, Mizuho analysts see a multiyear revenue benefit for Western industrials. But companies that enable manufacturing automation, including Emerson, follow closely behind as "core beneficiaries" of the reindustrialization cycle, according to Mizuho. Meanwhile, Mizuho pointed to Honeywell as one of the companies offering a more diversified way for investors to gain reshoring exposure. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Stanley Black, Decker, Mizuho, Wall, Emerson, Eaton, Hubbell, Emerson —, , Reshoring, Frank Dellaquila, Rockwell, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Timothy Aeppel Organizations: Mizuho, Emerson, Honeywell International, Honeywell, Emerson Electric, Stanley, Western, National, Rockwell Automation, Citigroup, Citi, Caterpillar, Linde, LIN, U.S . Companies, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, CAT, CNBC, Workers, Emerson Electric Co Locations: U.S, North Carolina, Mizuho, Marshalltown , Iowa
The reshoring trend is bringing manufacturing back into the U.S., putting the need for robots and automation at the forefront of the building boom. But with a tight labor market, companies are incorporating more automation and robotics into these brand new factories. Another robotics company Daryanani picked was Azenta . Sakraida said it could see upside as it gradually exposes itself more to the reshoring trend. It's working toward becoming a pure-play automation company," Sakraida said.
Persons: Jonathan Sakraida, reshoring, Carol Schleif, BMO's, Amit Daryanani, Daryanani, chipmakers, Morgan Stanley, industrials, Jonathan Coleman, Janus Henderson, Sakraida, Chris Snyder, Rockwell, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: UBS, Labor, BMO Family, HP, Janus Henderson Investors, Lincoln Electric, Rockwell Automation, ROK, Emerson Electric, Emerson Locations: U.S
The bubble in China's property market finally popped. In April, China's economic data came in weak largely across the board. The problem is that while consumers may be picking up, the biggest drivers of the Chinese economy — property and exports — are going to stay dormant. Consumer consumption makes up about 37% of the Chinese economy (in the US that figure is about 70%). Beijing has tried to shift the country toward a consumption model, like the US, but exports still make up 20% of China's economy.
Persons: lockdowns, it's, Xi Jinping, Stanley Druckenmiller, We're, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Wei Yao, Leland Miller, Miller, Yao, Wright, I've, , Kearney, Linette Lopez Organizations: Trade, JPMorgan, Bloomberg Invest Conference, Bank of America's, China's National Bureau, Statistics, Societe Generale, Analysts, Beijing, China, Chinese Communist Party, China's Locations: China, globalism, Beijing, York, Asia
New data from the Census Bureau reveals construction spending by US manufacturers more than doubled from last year. According to data from the Census Bureau released last week, construction spending by US manufacturers more than doubled over the past year. The IRA has sought to create new jobs in manufacturing, construction, and renewable energy, estimated to create up to 1.5 million jobs by 2030. Construction spending in most areas of the US economy has fallen in contrast, including office, health care, and educational construction. Census Bureau data reveals manufacturing construction spending has escalated from January 2020 until April 2023 in every region except New England and the Mid Atlantic.
Organizations: Service, Census, World Bank, of Labor, National Association of Manufacturers, National Environmental Locations: China, Asia, New England, India, Thailand, Vietnam
Ron DeSantis accused Trump of proposing "Soviet dystopian nonsense." Christina Pushaw attacked Trump's plan for new federally-chartered US cities on federal land. Ron DeSantis publicly battled with former President Donald Trump's defenders on Twitter over what she called the ex-president's "Soviet dystopian" plan for American cities. This is Soviet dystopian nonsense," she tweeted. A Republican consultant close to Trump's campaign told Insider in March that Trump came up with the idea for Freedom Cities himself and was likely inspired by Saudi Arabia's futuristic desert cities.
Persons: Ron DeSantis, Trump, Christina Pushaw, Pushaw, , Donald Trump's, DeSantis, Obama, Biden, Hillary, Paul Ryan, Ron, didn't, I've, Pushaw didn't, Sonnie Johnson, That's Organizations: Gov, World Economic, Service, Florida Gov, Twitter, World, Trump, Freedom Cities, Pacific Partnership, — Trump, Tea Party, Fox News Locations: Soviet, Freedom, globalism, Pres, It's, Saudi
Earnings calls discuss 'reshoring'A number of banks noted mentions of the domestic manufacturing trend in U.S. earnings calls for the most recent quarter. And we have never … got the target right," McRaith told an audience at a supply chain conference organized by software company o9 Solutions in April. Bill McRaith Former chief supply chain officer, PVHMcRaith, a former chief supply chain officer at Tommy Hilfiger-owner PVH , said the apparel industry both over-orders and under-orders stock by about 20% to 25%. If we build an economy based on electrification and batteries, it's going to be really important to control our own supply chain. "If we build an economy based on electrification and batteries, it's going to be really important to control our own supply chain," he told CNBC's "Street Signs Asia" in April.
Persons: Luke Sharrett, Savita Subramanian, Ryan Grabinski, they're, Bill McRaith, McRaith, PVH, Tommy Hilfiger, we've, Shein, Jade Gao, it's, Keith Phillips, Joe Biden, CNBC's, Elon Musk, Phillips Organizations: European Union, Bloomberg, Getty, Bank of America, UBS, Securities, o9 Solutions, CNBC, AFP, U.S ., Reshoring, EV, U.S, EVs Locations: China, Ukraine, U.S, Europe, Brazil, Guangzhou, U.S . U.S, Corpus Christi , Texas, Tennessee, United States
Its equity strategists say that value criteria tend to work best in small- and mid-cap stocks. They added that small caps are an especially good pathway to diversification right now. But they noted that investors can use small caps to diversify their portfolios while also being rewarded for better stock picking. "High Projected Long-Term Growth has not been a strong stock selection factor over the long-term," they wrote. "The best way to pick stocks within small caps over the long-term has been buying stocks with high free cash flow to enterprise value" and other metrics based on free cash flow yields.
Persons: Subramanian, it's, Jill Carey Hall, Nicolas Woods, Woods, Russell, Russell MidCap Organizations: of America, Bank of America, US Equity, Materials, Nasdaq, Bank of
Just where that notional 'R-star' lies has been clouded by the wild supply-side distortions of the COVID-19 pandemic and last year's energy shock. Raising R-star from recent low levels would probably increase uncertainty in markets about its longer-term level and direction too. On the other hand, if R-star is closer to zero, as Williams has suggested should be the case, current policy is too tight. Indeed, R-star is set to fall "slightly below zero," the New York Fed chief said, without giving a time frame. This suggests that the U.S. central bank's current policy rate target range of 5.00%-5.25% is already highly restrictive, and will soon need to come down.
Specifically, Lefkowitz has invested in both cyclical and defensive sectors to maximize his returns. In fact, to hedge his bets across a range of economic scenarios, Lefkowitz currently owns both defensive and cyclical sectors. Within the traditionally defensive sectors, Lefkowitz is overweight consumer staples and utilities. The energy sector, on the other hand, stands to benefit from increased investment capital pouring into fossil fuels and renewable energy sources, as a result of the recent energy scarcity crisis. Surprisingly, Lefkowitz is neutral on healthcare — traditionally considered another defensive sector — as a function of not wanting to place all his bets in one direction.
In particular, Chang believes that mega-cap tech stocks have gotten overextended, and are expensive relative to the rest of the market. But looking below the surface, Chang says that most of this appreciation has been concentrated within a handful of mega-cap tech stocks. Once the recession begins to ease, Chang believes that cyclical names linked to economic strength will start to outperform. That includes tech stocks — specifically semiconductor companies. However, Chang believes that a recessionary period should present better entry points for any investors interested in buying riskier high-yield fixed income assets.
The combined value of all of Apple 's shares is greater than the entirety of an index comprised of 2,000 small stocks. That's bigger than the combined market cap of all 2,000 stocks in the small cap-focused Russell 2000 , which was at $2.208 trillion. "It is apples to oranges — or small caps," said Willie Delwiche, founder of Hi Mount Research. DeSanctis also noted the overhang of the debt ceiling could add further pressure to small caps, given their underperformance in 2011. "If something goes right for small cap or the overall market, small can have a really nice bounce," he said.
This earnings season there was a lot of chatter about reshoring — and for UBS, Eaton stands out as the winner of the trend. Government incentives and supply chain security are among the reasons corporate America is jumping on board the booming reshoring trend , which means returning operations to companies' original country from overseas. Reshoring mentions were up 104% year over year during the latest round of earning reports, Bank of America wrote in a note Monday. "They have the broadest set of touchpoints throughout the reshoring process," UBS analyst Chris Snyder said. The U.S. reshoring projects announced so far should drive 3% to 6% market growth for the nation's electrical market over the next five to seven years, essentially doubling its previous growth, Snyder calculated.
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