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At Friday's close of 4224 on Friday, the S & P 500 is off 8% from the July high, with its equal-weighted version down 11%. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD Yet the S & P was also at about the current level on Sept. 22, when the 10-year was a half-percentage-point lower, as well as on June 2, when it was at 3.7%. It's taken as a given in most corners of the investment business that higher rates available on bonds serve mechanically to compress equity valuations. Which is how the stock market finds itself here, with real or incipient breakdowns in regional banks and transportation stocks, the median S & P 500 component down for the year. The S & P 500 has gone on to drop a bit further, rally weakly and then roll back toward a five-month low.
Persons: James Carville, Bill Clinton, Stocks, it's, It's, Savita Subramanian, Jay Powell, LEI, Bond Organizations: Treasury, Bank of America, Group, Bloomberg News Locations: Friday's, corporates, Israel
A passerby walks past an electric monitor displaying recent movements of various stock prices outside a bank in Tokyo, Japan, March 22, 2023. The U.S. 10-year yield has shot up 35 basis points this week, on track for its biggest weekly rise in over a decade. The 2s/10s yield curve has steepened 27 basis points, which would be the biggest weekly steepening move since March. The 10-year yield rose as high as 4.996%, a level not seen since July 2007. On the economic data front, data are expected to show Japan's annual core inflation rate was 2.7% in September, cooling from 3.1% in August.
Persons: Issei KatoFile, Jamie McGeever, Kazuo Ueda, Jerome Powell, Ueda, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, People's Bank of, Federal, Netflix, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Treasuries, Malaysia, Hong Kong, China, People's Bank of China, Asia, U.S, Hill, East
Keep your sweetened CD yields going with this maneuver
  + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Darla Mercado | Cfp | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The one-year Treasury bill is yielding 5.47% Wednesday, and one-year CDs at some institutions offer annual percentage yields exceeding 5%. "It always makes sense to look at the landscape," said Danika Waddell, a certified financial planner and founder of Xena Financial Planning. Ally Financial and Bread Financial are among the institutions offering a higher renewal rate for customers who stick around. Consider that about a year ago, the average one-year CD had an APY of less than 1%, according to Bankrate.com . Consider that Synchrony Financial has an 11-month no-penalty CD that offers a 4.5% APY, while its 12-month standard CD yields 5.1%.
Persons: Danika Waddell, Morgan Stanley, Banks, Betsy Graseck, Mark Hamrick, It's, Waddell, Michael Bloom Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Investors, Xena, PNC, WFC, Bankrate.com, Ally, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp Locations: JPM
Pedestrians walk past a billboard announcing the World Bank Group and International Monetary Fund annual meetings, on the side of the International Monetary Fund headquarters in Washington DC on October 5, 2023. Mandel Ngan | Afp | Getty ImagesTop economists and central bankers appear to be in agreement on one thing: interest rates will stay higher for longer, clouding the outlook for global markets. Despite the pause, Fed officials have signaled that rates may have to remain higher for longer than markets had initially expected if inflation is to sustainably return to the central bank's 2% target. The European Central Bank last month issued a 10th consecutive interest rate hike to take its main deposit facility to a record 4% despite signs of a weakening euro zone economy. "We may have more shocks that may drive inflation up, and that's why of course we have to remain very cautious about inflation developments."
Persons: Mandel Ngan, Ajay Banga, Greg Guyett, Guyett, Boris Vujčić, Vujčić, Mārtiņš Kazāks, CNBC's Joumanna Bercetche, Silvia Amaro, Austrian National Bank Governor Robert Holzmann Organizations: World Bank Group, International Monetary Fund, Washington DC, Afp, Getty, U.S . Federal Reserve, World Bank, IMF, Bank, Labor Department, U.S ., HSBC, CNBC, European Central Bank, Council, Croatian National Bank, U.S, Bank of Latvia, ECB, Governing Council, Austrian National Bank Governor Locations: Washington, Central, U.S, Marrakech, Morocco, ECB's, Europe, Marrakech ., Israel
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThere will be a 'very meaningful repricing' in corporate credit risk, says JPMorgan's Oksana AronovOksana Aronov, JPMorgan Asset Management head of market strategy and alternative fixed income, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the state of the economy and impact on rates, the Fed's inflation fight, and more.
Persons: JPMorgan's Oksana Aronov Oksana Aronov Organizations: JPMorgan Asset Management
European stocks lower ahead of U.S. earnings releases
  + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
The regional Stoxx 600 was down 0.7% as most sectors fell into the red. Only oil and gas stocks were higher, by 1.3%, as crude prices rose sharply. European stock markets were lower Friday afternoon as sentiment falters on fresh U.S. inflation data. However, both U.S. producer price and consumer price index readings have since come in slightly higher than expected. Inflation figures for France and Spain out FridayAsia-Pacific stocks were lower as the consumer price index in China — where the concern is deflation — came in flat, below estimates for 0.2% growth.
Persons: Raphael Bostic Organizations: Global, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of Atlanta, Friday Locations: Israel, U.S, France, Spain, Friday Asia, Pacific, China —
Israeli assets and the shekel remain under pressure and oil and gold prices are marginally higher than last week. World Markets Impact From MidEast Attacks WanesBlackRock chart on its Geopolitical Risk IndicatorNOWHERE TO RUN TO... Last updated shortly before the weekend events in Israel, BlackRock's Geopolitical Risk Indicator - which attempts to capture market attention to political risks - had indeed crept up to six month highs. Releasing its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund warned that more volatile commodity prices were a possible reflection of both greater climate and geopolitical risk. And yet hand wringing about geopolitical risk in different corners of the globe can also deflect from rising political risks in core economies - not the least in the United States.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Vincent Mortier, Anna Rosenberg, Kristina Hooper reckons, Hooper, that's, It's, Amundi's Rosenberg, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Josie Kao Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, West Bank, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Gaza, Iran, United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, Taiwan, Ukraine
Stocks slumped and bond yields surged as investors brace for higher for longer interest rates. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US economy is still burning hot – and it's the worst possible thing for markets to take in right now. AdvertisementAdvertisementInvestors are repricing their interest rate expectations through the rest of the year. Higher rates, and in turn higher bond yields, present a triple whammy, hitting stocks, bonds, and the wider economy.
Persons: Stocks, , That's, Blanke, Robert Schein, Michelle Cluver Organizations: Service, of Labor Statistics, Dow Jones, Treasury, Wealth, New, Fed
Fragile yen is flat as intervention talk in focus
  + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
The index, however, remained within striking distance of a nearly 11-month high of 107.34 reached in the previous session. The Japanese currency was last flat at 149.06 per dollar, after unexpectedly surging nearly 2% at one point on Tuesday to 147.30, its strongest level in three weeks. The Bank of Japan's money market data showed on Wednesday that Japan likely did not intervene in the currency market a day earlier. Sterling climbed 0.3% to $1.2112, rebounding after falling to a nearly seven-month low of $1.20535 in the previous session. The decision sent the kiwi sliding more than 0.2% to a nearly one-month low of US$0.5871.
Persons: Helen, Masato Kanda, James Malcolm, Sterling Organizations: U.S ., ADP, U.S, Monex USA, Tokyo, Analysts, UBS, Federal Reserve, greenback, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Washington, Japan
Jordanian Dinar, Yuan, Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Pound and Riyals banknotes are seen in this picture illustration taken June 13, 2017. JP Morgan analyst Sin Beng Ong in a note on the pressure it was putting on emerging Asia markets. RICHARD MCGUIRE, HEAD OF RATES STRATEGY, RABOBANK, LONDON:“The markets reflect effectively flying blind because the models don't work, everybody's been calling for a recession that just simply refuses to arrive. "Our view is that the U.S. economy slows into next year... so from that perspective, at some point, we expect it (bond market selloff) to normalise." (Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News team)Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Yuan, Dado Ruvic, BENG ONG, JP Morgan, Sin Beng Ong, RICHARD MCGUIRE, everybody's, you've, VIKRAM AGGARWAL, ” JUAN VALENZUELA, ARTEMIS, , ” NICK NELSON Organizations: REUTERS, OF, JPMORGAN, RABOBANK, LONDON, Federal Reserve, Global Finance, Markets, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, ASIA, SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S
Banks that hiked yields in the final stretch of the third quarter include Bread Financial , which is now offering an annual percentage yield of 5.6% for a 1-year CD. One basis point equals one-hundredth of a percentage point. "We expect at least one more guide up from bank management teams on deposit betas as the Fed keeps rates higher for longer," wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Betsy Graseck. Those factors include competition from money market funds for depositors' dollars, and lower-yielding CDs repricing at higher rates, she added. The San Francisco Fed forecast that the last of these dollars would be depleted during the third quarter of 2023.
Persons: Stephens, Vincent Caintic, Banks, Ally Financial, Morgan Stanley, Betsy Graseck, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bread, Federal Reserve, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of San, San Francisco Fed Locations: Stephens, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 in 2023 The median stock in the index, though, is nearly 16% off its 52-week high and is flat year to date. The S & P also went nine straight sessions through Wednesday recording a lower low than the day before, something that had only happened a dozen times over the prior century, says SentimenTrader.com. But the raw numbers say the S & P 500 has dropped from 19.7-times the next 12 months' projection to 17.9-times in two months. The equal-weight S & P 500 is at 14.3-times forward earnings; it bottomed last October just under 13. The S & P 500's annualized total returns for the last three, five and ten years are all between 10-12%, slightly above the long-term average.
Persons: Bonds, Friday's, Johnson, handicapping, shutdowns Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Target, American Express, Investment, CNN Locations: lockstep
However, Citi thinks the stock has been "caught in the storm" and sees upside potential ahead. Following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, Zions got caught in a broader panic among regional banks, which led to deposit outflows and funding pressures. 31, 2023, the bank's core deposits fell by nearly 10% to about $64 billion, according to Citi. "ZION has been impacted by deposit outflows, but we find that ZION's core deposits (excluding broker deposits) ranks second lowest on cumulative beta on total deposits so far this cycle. ZION reported positive trends towards the end of 2Q as core deposits were up 3% sequentially," Horowitz said.
Persons: Zions Bancorporation, Keith Horowitz, Zions, Horowitz, ZION, CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Citi, Silicon Valley Bank, Watch, Management Locations: Silicon, Mar, Zions, 4Q23, NII, ZION
Moves in bond yields, implied inflation breakeven rates, and inflation-adjusted 'real' yields suggest investors anticipate the Fed's 'higher for longer' interest rate policy will help lower inflation to around 2.5%. But this is not a re-pricing of the Fed's near-term trajectory, rather a repricing of the longer term economic and inflation outlook. This suggests the Fed is entering a phase of structurally higher rates than perhaps policymakers themselves, and certainly investors, had anticipated. Many analysts are skeptical that moves in bond yields can be broken down, quantified and compartmentalized with any great degree of accuracy. TIPS are a key market-based barometer of investors' inflation expectations, but they have their flaws.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goldman Sachs, Marvin Barth, Barth, Torsten Slok, Jamie McGeever, Christina Fincher Organizations: Chicago Fed, CNBC, Securities, Apollo Global Management, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida
Here's what it might take for the 10-year yield go to 5%
  + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Can the 10-year yield go to 5%? The primary factor that would move the 10-year towards 5%, Braizinha says, is a reacceleration of the economy. A soft landing (still growth, but with lower inflation) won't do it. Braizinha notes that the soft landing is still his base case and would "push back" against a 5% 10-year yield. He also notes that "the degree of conviction" around a stronger economy "seems to have deteriorated."
Persons: Bruno Braizinha, Braizinha, Braizhina Organizations: Bank of America Locations: U.S
Morning Bid: Bond crush stifles markets as $134 billion hits
  + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
The yield spike has supercharged the U.S. dollar worldwide - both a reflection and aggravator of mounting financial stress far and wide. As Deutsche Bank notes, this is historically significant territory as the average of the 10-year yield going back to 1799 is around 4.50%. The Treasury sells $48 billion in two-year notes on Tuesday, $49 billion in five-year paper on Wednesday and $37 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday. Minneapolis Fed Bank President Neel Kashkari said on Monday the Fed probably needs to raise borrowing rates further. Private sector bankers are starting to brace for the worst, with JP Morgan chief Jamie Dimon reported overnight as warning: "I am not sure if the world is prepared for 7% (Fed rates)."
Persons: Jose Luis Gonzalez, Mike Dolan, South Korea's, Sterling, haven't, Neel Kashkari, Said Kashkari, Austan Goolsbee, JP Morgan, Jamie Dimon, Christine Lagarde, China Evergrande, Michelle Bowman, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, U.S ., Bank of Japan, South, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Minneapolis Fed, Chicago Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Dallas Fed's, Chicago Fed's, HK, Richmond Fed, Dallas Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Costco, Cintas, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, U.S, Wall St, Asia, Europe, Philadelphia, Washington
Treasury yields are spiking to levels not seen in over 15 years, causing sell-offs in many of the market's biggest bond funds. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) closed at $89.18 on Monday, which was its lowest close since Feb. 10, 2011, according to FactSet. The Fed's target interest rate is already above 5%, as are short-term Treasury yields. But the long-term decline in bond yields began roughly two decades before that. That trend may finally have reached its turning point, Jim Grant, founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, said Tuesday on CNBC's " Squawk Box ."
Persons: Bruno Braizinha, Braizinha, Goldman Sachs, Cecilia Mariotti, Mariotti, Ajay Rajadhyaksha, Jonathan Krinsky, Jim Grant, Grant, BTIG's Krinsky Organizations: Treasury Bond ETF, iShares, Aggregate Bond, Treasury, Bank of America, Barclays, Federal
US home values could collapse as climate change boosts insurance costs, a study from First Street Foundation said. First Street estimated that 39 million homes are still insured at prices that don't match the climate risks they face. Either way, insurance costs are rising, and First Street estimated the impact they will have on a home's value by way of its income potential. For example, a home in California currently valued at $296,000 would see a 39% drop after repricing for estimated insurance risk. Still, despite the climate risks, the housing affordability crisis has boosted migration to areas vulnerable to floods, wildfires, and extreme heat.
Organizations: First Street Foundation, First, Service, Foundation Locations: Wall, Silicon, California, West Palm Beach , Florida, Louisiana, Plaquemines Parish
Morning Bid: Fed leaves shoe dangling in policy parade
  + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
At least eight major central banks are meeting on Thursday. Central banks in South Africa and Turkey are also meeting. Futures now show the implied Fed policy rate for the end of next year at a new cycle high of 4.85% - up a whopping 35 basis points in just over a week. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday:* Bank of England policy decision; South Africa Reserve Bank policy decision, Central Bank of Turkey policy decision. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde speaks* Philadelphia Fed's September business survey, U.S. weekly jobless claims, U.S. Aug existing home sales, U.S. Q2 current account estimate.
Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Mike Dolan, Jerome Powell, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Jan Hatzius, Robin Brooks, Brooks, BoE, Christine Lagarde, Darden, Christina Fincher Organizations: Eccles Federal Reserve, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Swiss National Bank, Bank of, Fed, for International Finance, Treasury, Swiss, Africa Reserve Bank, Central Bank of, European Central Bank, Factset, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, U.S, Norwegian, Bank of England, South Africa, Turkey, Central Bank of Turkey, Philadelphia
The U.S. homeowner’s insurance industry has had three straight years of underwriting losses, according to credit rating agency AM Best. Record numbers of Americans are now insured through state-affiliated “insurers of last resort” like California’s FAIR Plan, or Louisiana or Florida’s Citizens property insurance companies. These programs were designed to insure properties where private insurance companies have refused to insure or the price for private insurance is too expensive. In Florida, Citizens Property Insurance Corp. now has 1.4 million homeowners’ policies in effect, nearly triple in five years. “It used to be homeowner's insurance was an afterthought when you are looking at buying a property.
Persons: you’re, , California Sen, Bill Dodd, Jeremy Porter, Fannie Mae, Todd Bevington, “ I’ve, Jen Goodlin, , ’ ”, “ We’ve, ” Dodd, Dodd, Porter, Guy Carpenter, Lara Mowery, Mowery, ” Mowery, That’s, ” Bevington, Adam Beam, Janie Har Organizations: First Street Foundation, Bank of America, Treasury Department, Paradise, FAIR, Citizens Property Insurance Corp, Farm, Allstate, National Flood Insurance, Swiss, Munich Re, Hurricane Locations: California, Florida, Louisiana, Lahaina, Vermont, Maine, New York, U.S, , Paradise, Northern California, Colorado, Munich, New Orleans, Gulf, Asheland, N.C, Sacramento, Calif, San Francisco
Sept 18 (Reuters) - Cadence Bank (CADE.N) CEO Dan Rollins calls the regional banking crisis from earlier this year "March madness." Interviews with half a dozen regional bank executives and economists show the March banking crisis has had a lasting impact on the regional banking industry and the economy. Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said the banking crisis had "a magnifying effect" on the Fed's tightening but its full impact would come with a lag. The failure triggered a crisis of confidence, with depositors moving their money from regional banks to the perceived safety of the largest lenders. The KBW Regional Bank Index (.KRX) is down about 20% since early March despite a summer rebound.
Persons: Dan Rollins, Rollins, Mark Zandi, , Zandi, Torsten Slok, Slok, Cadence's Rollins, Steve Wyett, Wyett, Banks, Cadence’s Rollins, Randy Chesler, Chesler, Moody's Zandi, Jeff Jackson, Raj Singh, Singh, Paritosh Bansal, Anna Driver Organizations: Cadence Bank, Moody’s, Apollo Global Management, Bank, Reuters Graphics, Valley, Regional, BOK, Federal, Loan, Thomson Locations: . Federal, Silicon, Tulsa , Oklahoma, Kalispell , Montana, Wheeling , West Virginia
The firm upgraded the stock to outperform from "peer perform," noting it has an "attractive" risk-reward ratio. Analyst Justin Lake raised his price target to $80, implying 16.4% upside from Monday's close of $68.75, which was the firm's previous price target. The analyst said he sees potential for CVS to more conservatively set expectations for earnings growth in 2025 and beyond in the high single-digit range. The stock has gained 5.5% so far this month, however, and rose 4.4% during Monday's trading session. Combined, Lake said these efforts should effectively allow CVS to "reinvest for future growth."
Persons: Justin Lake, Lake, Brian Kane, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: CVS, Wolf Research, Blue, Aetna, CNBC Locations: California
[1/2] A man walks in front of the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 18, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSept 12 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. They now expect the central bank's 'yield curve control' policy to end in October, compared with April 2024, and for the negative interest rate policy to end in January 2024, versus December 2024. Beyond the Japanese policy drama, investors will also have the latest Indian inflation and industrial production data, and Australian business and consumer sentiment figures to digest on Tuesday. The currency is getting little support from the interest rate outlook - economists currently expect the RBI to keep rates on hold then start easing policy the second quarter of next year.
Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Kazuo Ueda, Josie Kao Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, of, Government Bond, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Reserve Bank of India's, Bank, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Indonesian, Philippine, India, Australia, Korea
China's Aug new yuan loans seen rebounding on policy support
  + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Chinese banks are estimated to have issued 1.20 trillion yuan ($163.41 billion) in net new yuan loans last month, more than triple July's 345.9 billion yuan, according to the median estimate in the survey of 20 economists. But that would be lower than 1.25 trillion yuan issued the same month a year earlier. Outstanding yuan loans were expected to grow by 11.1% in August from a year earlier, the same as in July, the poll showed. China is aiming to complete the issuance of the 2023 special local government bonds quota of 3.8 trillion yuan by end-September. In August, TSF is expected to jump to 2.46 trillion yuan from 528.2 billion yuan in July.
Persons: TSF, Li Qiang, Judy Hua, Kevin Yao, Tomasz Janowski Organizations: Citi, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, China
Fed Chair Jerome Powell was almost brusque in his re-statement of the central bank's anti-inflation commitment at the annual Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Tracking that rather than more-skittish policy rate futures would have proved a better guide to how subsequent months panned out and to the summer doldrums in bonds and stocks. And yet the September meeting could still be the 'big reveal' as it sees publication of the Fed's updated 'dot plot' that will likely show just where they then see the cycle crest. San Francisco Fed chart on dispersion of Fed rate projections by horizonSan Francisco Fed index of Fed uncertaintyACCIDENT OR DESIGN? As to whether the Fed is guiding everyone to safe and happy place, there continues to be sceptics about the 'soft landing'.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jackson, that's, it's, Andrew Foerster, Zinnia Martinez, Bruce Kasman, Joseph Lupton Organizations: Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Atlanta, San Francisco Fed, San, Fed, San Francisco, JPMorgan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, synch, San Francisco Fed
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